Sunday, March 15, 2009

ACC Tournament Final Preview:

Saturday was another day of great games, starting with a thriller between Florida State and North Carolina. Toney Douglas and Derwin Kitchen hit free throws in the final minute and two desperation 3s by Carolina were not good at the buzzer, and the Noles won by 3. Part of what makes North Carolina so successful is their ability to score a ton of points in their hurry-up offense, on fastbreaks. Take Ty Lawson out, and Carolina has to play their half-court offense. They still have an above average half court game, with Tyler Hansbrough, but they don't have that fastbreak advantage. That's what Florida State was able to exploit. I thought the Noles were dead because they had two fairly long scoring droughts in the first half, and you just can't have droughts against Carolina. But they forced Carolina to play a half court game, and it worked. Plus it doesn't hurt when you have Toney Douglas.
Duke had a nice win over Maryland despite still having woes on offense. The Devils just haven't looked sharp in the past two games on offense. I think part of the reason has been the ineffectiveness of Gerald Henderson. He just hasn't been as much of a scoring machine as in times past. In this game, they were able to win as the Terps showed signs of fatigue in the second half from playing three games in three days. But Maryland fans should be happy come 6:00 today.

So this sets up what for me is an intriguing final: Florida State vs. Duke. Duke has won both battles with FSU, but recently just beat the Seminoles by 3 points in Cameron. I don't expect this game to be played in the 80s; in fact it might be the first to 60 wins. It will be the clash of Duke's 3 point shooting against Florida State's inside strength. It's not that FSU has true big men like Hansbrough, they just have a ton of size and a great interior defense.
So where will the points come from for Duke? The Devils will need more than just Jon Scheyer hitting outside shots. If Duke has to go with a big lineup that has Lance Thomas and Brian
Zoubek spending a lot of time on the floor, they won't have much success.
For Florida State, it's all about Toney Douglas. Even if the rest of the team is cold Douglas can carry his teammates on his back. But he does need help. The Noles didn't get much out of Uche Echefu against Carolina, but they need contributions from him, as well as Chris Singleton.

This week Florida State has been playing better than Duke. There has to be some concern among the Blue Devil faithful considering how they ended the season last year, and an ACC Championship might help ease their fears. But Florida State is on a mission to win its first ever ACC Title. And in what should be a great game down to the wire, they won't be denied.

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