Is the ACC Too Top Heavy?
I took a look before at the turnover in coaches when trying to explain why the ACC is down this year (and the last few years). One other theory that may be playing into it is the top of the league. Duke and UNC are two of the most historic and established programs in the country. They have been dominant throughout the last several decades. And that certainly may be hurting the league. Years like this one show how much they are above everyone else, making it very hard to earn a marquee win. So I ran some numbers, looking at each team's record against Duke and UNC since the league expanded to 12. That means the past six seasons, including ACC Tournament games. You may be surprised who has the best record against the two big boys.
Georgia Tech 7-12 37%
Maryland 7-15 32%
Virginia Tech 5-14 26%
Boston College 5-15 25%
Florida State 5-15 25%
Wake Forest 4-13 24%
Virginia 3-15 17%
Clemson 3-16 16%
NC State 3-19 14%
Miami 2-17 11%
This adds up to a combined record of 44-151. Keep in mind that 12 of those 44 wins came to UNC in one season, when they went 5-11 in conference and lost in the first round of the ACC Tournament.
Some of these records are pretty surprising. Certainly you wouldn't have thought Georgia Tech had the best record. But they actually have played UNC very well in the last three seasons. Clemson's record is a surprise to me, considering how much success they have had in the last five years. Of course, they do have that record of never winning in Chapel Hill, which doesn't help.
So what does this mean? Obviously, it means that two teams are completely dominating one conference. But when it comes to the NCAA Tournament, it means this: one of the biggest factors in determining whether you get a bid is who you've beaten. There really is no opportunity to get a win that will raise eyebrows in the ACC unless you beat Duke and UNC. And they have made beating them very difficult.
In other conferences, you see a little more rotation in the top programs, letting other teams into the NCAA Tournament. The Pac 10 was dominated by UCLA a few years ago. Not anymore. Kentucky has been dominant in some years in the SEC and much less so in others. Even in the Big East, powers like Syracuse, UConn and Pitt have seasons in which they lose eight games in conference.
So until the ACC can have a program emerge that can consistently beat Duke and UNC, it will remain a league of haves and have-nots. That makes 2 haves and 10 have-nots. Of course, expansion will change all this. But I'll worry about that another time.
Monday, December 26, 2011
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
Christmas Week Preview
Most teams have the Christmas holiday off, but there are some intriguing games before the year ends. Let's start with the Diamond Head Classic. Clemson travels to Hawaii with a big opportunity to turn their season around. They have been pretty disappointing thus far, and will need to step up their game if they are going to knock off some decent opponents. On Thursday Clemson takes on UTEP, a team out of Conference USA that has not been good thus far. If they win that one, their next game comes Friday against the winner of Kansas State and Southern Illinois (likely Kansas State). The best team on the other side of the bracket is Xavier, which is reeling a bit from suspensions coming out of that brawl.
Texas takes on UNC tonight in a matchup that last year Texas won. The Heels are significantly better than the Longhorns, and should win this one without much trouble.
Florida State has its annual game against rival Florida Thursday night in Gainesville. Many thought the Seminoles were a lock for the NCAA Tournament going into the year, but they haven't done anything to show that they deserve it. After losing three games in a row, they have won three straight against underwhelming competition. This game will be a much bigger challenge. After Thursday, the games don't really start cranking back up until December 29.
A couple of other thoughts:
Virginia is starting to look more and more like the third best team in the conference - at least right now. They had a solid road win at Oregon and only have a rather head-scratching loss against TCU on the record. Every team besides Duke and UNC has question marks, leaving the door open for teams like Virginia to try and snag an NCAA Tournament berth. Teams like Virginia Tech, NC State and Miami have shown flashes but whether they can produce when the competition steps up in ACC play is still a big question.
Most teams have the Christmas holiday off, but there are some intriguing games before the year ends. Let's start with the Diamond Head Classic. Clemson travels to Hawaii with a big opportunity to turn their season around. They have been pretty disappointing thus far, and will need to step up their game if they are going to knock off some decent opponents. On Thursday Clemson takes on UTEP, a team out of Conference USA that has not been good thus far. If they win that one, their next game comes Friday against the winner of Kansas State and Southern Illinois (likely Kansas State). The best team on the other side of the bracket is Xavier, which is reeling a bit from suspensions coming out of that brawl.
Texas takes on UNC tonight in a matchup that last year Texas won. The Heels are significantly better than the Longhorns, and should win this one without much trouble.
Florida State has its annual game against rival Florida Thursday night in Gainesville. Many thought the Seminoles were a lock for the NCAA Tournament going into the year, but they haven't done anything to show that they deserve it. After losing three games in a row, they have won three straight against underwhelming competition. This game will be a much bigger challenge. After Thursday, the games don't really start cranking back up until December 29.
A couple of other thoughts:
Virginia is starting to look more and more like the third best team in the conference - at least right now. They had a solid road win at Oregon and only have a rather head-scratching loss against TCU on the record. Every team besides Duke and UNC has question marks, leaving the door open for teams like Virginia to try and snag an NCAA Tournament berth. Teams like Virginia Tech, NC State and Miami have shown flashes but whether they can produce when the competition steps up in ACC play is still a big question.
Sunday, December 18, 2011
Thoughts on Saturday's Games
The schedule is pretty light this time of year, but there were a couple intriguing games on Saturday's schedule in the ACC. The two most high profile games were marked by poor defense. Let's start in Raleigh, where NC State played some inspired basketball but still lost at home to Syracuse by 16. NC State came out on fire, hitting all their shots and building a lead, but Syracuse went on a huge run in the first half that was back-breaking. At times, NC State did a great job of getting out in transition and getting to the basket against the Syracuse zone. But like the Indiana game, their defense was their downfall, giving up 88 points.
Miami certainly has some weapons on offense, as they showed in their two overtime win against Florida Atlantic yesterday. Reggie Johnson returned and proved that he can be a force down low. However, he looks really overweight to me and a bit slow. Teams would be wise to force him to come out to the free throw line and guard people, taking advantage of his lack of speed. Coach Larranaga has to be upset by the lack of defense Miami played. Florida Atlantic (coached by Mike Jarvis) had way too many easy shots down the stretch. The two teams combined to shoot 29 for 49 from 3! Miami can be a top half team in the ACC with their talent, but they need to start playing some D to make up for the days when their shooters aren't hitting.
The rest of the day was pretty light. Virginia Tech got a solid 25 point win over Campbell. Tech fans have to be pretty happy with the play of their four freshmen, who yesterday combined for 27 points. Clemson got a much needed win, albeit over a bad Winthrop team. And UNC got an easy win against an over-matched Appalachian State.
There is one interesting game on the schedule for Sunday. UVA travels west to take on Oregon. The Ducks have been near the bottom of the Pac 10 (or 12) the past couple years but should be right in the middle of that conference this year. This is part of a two game trip for UVA in which they will also take on Seattle.
The schedule is pretty light this time of year, but there were a couple intriguing games on Saturday's schedule in the ACC. The two most high profile games were marked by poor defense. Let's start in Raleigh, where NC State played some inspired basketball but still lost at home to Syracuse by 16. NC State came out on fire, hitting all their shots and building a lead, but Syracuse went on a huge run in the first half that was back-breaking. At times, NC State did a great job of getting out in transition and getting to the basket against the Syracuse zone. But like the Indiana game, their defense was their downfall, giving up 88 points.
Miami certainly has some weapons on offense, as they showed in their two overtime win against Florida Atlantic yesterday. Reggie Johnson returned and proved that he can be a force down low. However, he looks really overweight to me and a bit slow. Teams would be wise to force him to come out to the free throw line and guard people, taking advantage of his lack of speed. Coach Larranaga has to be upset by the lack of defense Miami played. Florida Atlantic (coached by Mike Jarvis) had way too many easy shots down the stretch. The two teams combined to shoot 29 for 49 from 3! Miami can be a top half team in the ACC with their talent, but they need to start playing some D to make up for the days when their shooters aren't hitting.
The rest of the day was pretty light. Virginia Tech got a solid 25 point win over Campbell. Tech fans have to be pretty happy with the play of their four freshmen, who yesterday combined for 27 points. Clemson got a much needed win, albeit over a bad Winthrop team. And UNC got an easy win against an over-matched Appalachian State.
There is one interesting game on the schedule for Sunday. UVA travels west to take on Oregon. The Ducks have been near the bottom of the Pac 10 (or 12) the past couple years but should be right in the middle of that conference this year. This is part of a two game trip for UVA in which they will also take on Seattle.
Monday, December 12, 2011
Why is the ACC Down?
As someone who grew up watching ACC basketball, it is hard to watch the league struggle to get respect as it has in recent years. This year has started off very poorly, and as I said before once you get into conference play there aren't many opportunities to prove that your conference is strong. So that begs the question: why is the ACC so down? One of the more popular theories is that there has been a lot of coaching turnover. So I want to take a look at the teams that have replaced their coaches in the last two years.
Before I start, I acknowledge that for some of these coaches there really isn't a very large sample size. They haven't had a chance to prove themselves. Plus, coaching isn't everything. Wins and losses are also determined by talent, injuries, schedule, etc. But let's see how these teams shake up.
Boston College
BC replaced Al Skinner before the 2010-2011 season with Steve Donahue. Here's how Skinner did in his last two seasons compared with Donahue's current tenure:
Al Skinner - 37-28 (15-17 ACC) *NCAA bid in 2008-2009
Steve Donahue - 23-20 (9-7 ACC)
Clemson
Oliver Purnell bolted for DePaul after the 2009-2010 season, replaced by Brad Brownell. Here are their numbers:
Oliver Purnell - 44-20 (18-14 ACC) *NCAA bid in both seasons
Brad Brownell - 26-16 (9-7 ACC) *NCAA bid in 2010-2011
As an added number, Purnell in his stint at DePaul is 13-27.
Wake Forest
Jeff Bzdelik took over as coach at Wake after Dino Gaudio was shown the door. I think you'll see the most dramatic numbers here:
Dino Gaudio - 44-18 (20-12 ACC) *NCAA bid in both seasons
Jeff Bzdelik - 14-28 (1-15 ACC)
In each of these three cases, the current coach has a worse winning percentage than the coach they replaced. At Wake and BC, the previous coaches were fired. Bad moves? Maybe. These are three programs that have been to NCAA Tournaments in recent years but have now fallen on hard times, which affects that public perception.
Ok now let's take a quick look at first year coaches. Their numbers will most certainly be incomplete at this point, but it's worth looking at.
Georgia Tech
Paul Hewitt is now the coach at George Mason. Brian Gregory came over from Dayton. Again, these stats for the old coaches are the past two seasons.
Paul Hewitt - 36-31 (12-20 ACC) *NCAA bid in 2009-2010
Brian Gregory - 6-4
Maryland
Gary Williams retired after a long time as the Terps head coach. Mark Turgeon came over from Texas A&M.
Gary Williams - 43-23 (20-12 ACC) *NCAA bid in 2009-2010
Mark Turgeon - 5-3
Miami
Jim Larranaga is the head coach, coming over from George Mason. He replaces Frank Haith, who is doing quite well so far at Missouri.
Frank Haith - 41-28 (10-22 ACC)
Jim Larranaga - 5-4
Look at those numbers for Haith! Miami feasted on less than stellar non-conference competition and then crumbled in the ACC the last two years.
NC State
Mark Gottfried is the new head coach, replacing Sidney Lowe, who isn't going to have very good numbers on here.
Sidney Lowe - 35-32 (10-22 ACC)
Mark Gottfried - 6-3
So what does all this mean? It means a lot of teams are starting from scratch. When new coaches come in, there are often players transferring out, and a lot of turnover. It takes a while for coaches to get to recruit their own players and perform. That doesn't necessarily mean things will get better in the next year or two: of the first-year coaches the only hire that most people agree is an improvement is Gottfried at NC State. New doesn't necessarily mean better. You do have to question some of the decisions to replace coaches and wonder if the league would be better off if people like Gaudio and Skinner had stayed.
As someone who grew up watching ACC basketball, it is hard to watch the league struggle to get respect as it has in recent years. This year has started off very poorly, and as I said before once you get into conference play there aren't many opportunities to prove that your conference is strong. So that begs the question: why is the ACC so down? One of the more popular theories is that there has been a lot of coaching turnover. So I want to take a look at the teams that have replaced their coaches in the last two years.
Before I start, I acknowledge that for some of these coaches there really isn't a very large sample size. They haven't had a chance to prove themselves. Plus, coaching isn't everything. Wins and losses are also determined by talent, injuries, schedule, etc. But let's see how these teams shake up.
BC replaced Al Skinner before the 2010-2011 season with Steve Donahue. Here's how Skinner did in his last two seasons compared with Donahue's current tenure:
Al Skinner - 37-28 (15-17 ACC) *NCAA bid in 2008-2009
Steve Donahue - 23-20 (9-7 ACC)
Clemson
Oliver Purnell bolted for DePaul after the 2009-2010 season, replaced by Brad Brownell. Here are their numbers:
Oliver Purnell - 44-20 (18-14 ACC) *NCAA bid in both seasons
Brad Brownell - 26-16 (9-7 ACC) *NCAA bid in 2010-2011
As an added number, Purnell in his stint at DePaul is 13-27.
Wake Forest
Jeff Bzdelik took over as coach at Wake after Dino Gaudio was shown the door. I think you'll see the most dramatic numbers here:
Dino Gaudio - 44-18 (20-12 ACC) *NCAA bid in both seasons
Jeff Bzdelik - 14-28 (1-15 ACC)
In each of these three cases, the current coach has a worse winning percentage than the coach they replaced. At Wake and BC, the previous coaches were fired. Bad moves? Maybe. These are three programs that have been to NCAA Tournaments in recent years but have now fallen on hard times, which affects that public perception.
Ok now let's take a quick look at first year coaches. Their numbers will most certainly be incomplete at this point, but it's worth looking at.
Georgia Tech
Paul Hewitt is now the coach at George Mason. Brian Gregory came over from Dayton. Again, these stats for the old coaches are the past two seasons.
Paul Hewitt - 36-31 (12-20 ACC) *NCAA bid in 2009-2010
Brian Gregory - 6-4
Maryland
Gary Williams retired after a long time as the Terps head coach. Mark Turgeon came over from Texas A&M.
Gary Williams - 43-23 (20-12 ACC) *NCAA bid in 2009-2010
Mark Turgeon - 5-3
Miami
Jim Larranaga is the head coach, coming over from George Mason. He replaces Frank Haith, who is doing quite well so far at Missouri.
Frank Haith - 41-28 (10-22 ACC)
Jim Larranaga - 5-4
Look at those numbers for Haith! Miami feasted on less than stellar non-conference competition and then crumbled in the ACC the last two years.
NC State
Mark Gottfried is the new head coach, replacing Sidney Lowe, who isn't going to have very good numbers on here.
Sidney Lowe - 35-32 (10-22 ACC)
Mark Gottfried - 6-3
So what does all this mean? It means a lot of teams are starting from scratch. When new coaches come in, there are often players transferring out, and a lot of turnover. It takes a while for coaches to get to recruit their own players and perform. That doesn't necessarily mean things will get better in the next year or two: of the first-year coaches the only hire that most people agree is an improvement is Gottfried at NC State. New doesn't necessarily mean better. You do have to question some of the decisions to replace coaches and wonder if the league would be better off if people like Gaudio and Skinner had stayed.
Friday, December 09, 2011
Weekend Update
Relatively speaking, it hasn't been a bad week for the ACC. No disastrous losses. In fact, just two teams lost conference games. Boston College lost on the road to Providence (no surprise there - BC is still terrible). And Miami really took it on the chin against Memphis. They were right there at halftime, but ended up losing by 17. Memphis is a very solid team, but Miami can't feel good about that performance.
Georgia Tech got its most solid win of the year, on the road over rival Georgia. Georgia isn't in the top half of the SEC, but considering how Georgia Tech has been playing, to beat them by 12 points has got to feel good. Virginia Tech got a much needed win over Rhode Island. The Rams have only won one game all year, but they were at home, and a tough opponent. Maryland won against Mt. St. Mary's, but only by three points. That is a bit of a head scratcher. It's starting to look like they are so reliant on Terrell Stoglin, that if he has a bad game they are toast.
There are a few interesting matchups this weekend. Here is a look ahead:
Duke vs. Washington (Saturday, 12 p.m.)
Duke is taking on Washington at Madison Square Garden, which seems to be their second home. They have played so well in the world's most famous arena. The Huskies have some talent but thus far this year haven't played as well as they are capable of.
Clemson at Arizona (Saturday, 4 p.m.)
Clemson has been a really big disappointment in my opinion, and it's not going to get any easier in this game. Arizona no longer has Derrick Williams but they will be a force in the Pac-12.
Miami at West Virginia (Saturday, 7 p.m.)
This is a game that Miami could actually steal. West Virginia is coming off a two overtime win over Kansas State. And the Mountaineers aren't the same team they have been in previous years.
Wake Forest at Seton Hall (Saturday, 8 p.m.)
It's actually conceivable that Wake could end up winning two road games against BCS conference teams in two weeks. Seton Hall is not a very good team. Wake of course isn't either but the Deacs are starting to show a few signs of life.
Relatively speaking, it hasn't been a bad week for the ACC. No disastrous losses. In fact, just two teams lost conference games. Boston College lost on the road to Providence (no surprise there - BC is still terrible). And Miami really took it on the chin against Memphis. They were right there at halftime, but ended up losing by 17. Memphis is a very solid team, but Miami can't feel good about that performance.
Georgia Tech got its most solid win of the year, on the road over rival Georgia. Georgia isn't in the top half of the SEC, but considering how Georgia Tech has been playing, to beat them by 12 points has got to feel good. Virginia Tech got a much needed win over Rhode Island. The Rams have only won one game all year, but they were at home, and a tough opponent. Maryland won against Mt. St. Mary's, but only by three points. That is a bit of a head scratcher. It's starting to look like they are so reliant on Terrell Stoglin, that if he has a bad game they are toast.
There are a few interesting matchups this weekend. Here is a look ahead:
Duke vs. Washington (Saturday, 12 p.m.)
Duke is taking on Washington at Madison Square Garden, which seems to be their second home. They have played so well in the world's most famous arena. The Huskies have some talent but thus far this year haven't played as well as they are capable of.
Clemson at Arizona (Saturday, 4 p.m.)
Clemson has been a really big disappointment in my opinion, and it's not going to get any easier in this game. Arizona no longer has Derrick Williams but they will be a force in the Pac-12.
Miami at West Virginia (Saturday, 7 p.m.)
This is a game that Miami could actually steal. West Virginia is coming off a two overtime win over Kansas State. And the Mountaineers aren't the same team they have been in previous years.
Wake Forest at Seton Hall (Saturday, 8 p.m.)
It's actually conceivable that Wake could end up winning two road games against BCS conference teams in two weeks. Seton Hall is not a very good team. Wake of course isn't either but the Deacs are starting to show a few signs of life.
Monday, December 05, 2011
Non-Conference Failures
As the days go on, the ACC isn't doing anything to improve its reputation. After struggling mightily in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, there were a series of frustrating losses in non-conference games this weekend. There are just too many teams right now that are not living up to ACC standards. I said in my previous post that I thought the ACC was getting four teams into the NCAA Tournament. The way it's looking now, that number might go to three.
Let's start with the best game of the weekend, UNC at Kentucky. This isn't a bad loss at all for UNC. In fact, they have to feel good about how they played. They got good contributions from players like Reggie Bullock and PJ Hairston, and had a very good chance to win at the end.
Also on Saturday, Wake came back down to earth with a home loss to Richmond. The Spiders jumped out in front early and were actually in front by 23 before Wake came back to make it a game. Boston College suffered another horrible loss, by 14 at home to Boston University. They are now 2-6 on the year and may not win three more games the whole season. Georgia Tech also had a bad loss, falling to Tulane by five. Tulane is 9-0 this season, but against an extremely soft schedule.
Sunday wasn't much better. Clemson continues to struggle in the early season, falling to rival South Carolina. South Carolina may be the worst team in the SEC. Clemson had a chance to tie with three free throws late in the game, but Tanner Smith missed one and the game was pretty much over. NC State had another late letdown. They weren't favored to win on the road against Stanford, but had the game pretty much in control and were not able to hang on. Virginia Tech also had a tough loss, at home to Kansas State. They played well in the first half and had a six point lead at halftime. But the shots wouldn't fall in the second half and Kansas State was able to put together a run and hold on.
The only ACC team to win on Sunday was Maryland, beating Notre Dame in Washington, DC. This may look like a good win, as Notre Dame was a very good team last year. But the Irish lost a lot off their team this year, and their best player, Tim Abromaitis, is out for the season. Nevertheless, this is a confidence boost for Maryland, and Terrell Stoglin, who had 31 points, continues to be the star for the Terps.
So where does that leave us? Right now Duke and Virginia are the only teams with just one loss. UNC and Miami are the only teams with two losses. You'd have to think that the damage has already been done in terms of the national consciousness. It's going to be hard for the ACC to earn more respect, especially once conference play starts. There aren't many chances for that this week, with a lack of exciting matchups. Among the best games during the week:
Memphis at Miami (Tuesday)
Georgia Tech at Georgia (Wednesday)
Virginia Tech at Rhode Island (Wednesday)
Boston College at Providence (Thursday)
As the days go on, the ACC isn't doing anything to improve its reputation. After struggling mightily in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, there were a series of frustrating losses in non-conference games this weekend. There are just too many teams right now that are not living up to ACC standards. I said in my previous post that I thought the ACC was getting four teams into the NCAA Tournament. The way it's looking now, that number might go to three.
Let's start with the best game of the weekend, UNC at Kentucky. This isn't a bad loss at all for UNC. In fact, they have to feel good about how they played. They got good contributions from players like Reggie Bullock and PJ Hairston, and had a very good chance to win at the end.
Also on Saturday, Wake came back down to earth with a home loss to Richmond. The Spiders jumped out in front early and were actually in front by 23 before Wake came back to make it a game. Boston College suffered another horrible loss, by 14 at home to Boston University. They are now 2-6 on the year and may not win three more games the whole season. Georgia Tech also had a bad loss, falling to Tulane by five. Tulane is 9-0 this season, but against an extremely soft schedule.
Sunday wasn't much better. Clemson continues to struggle in the early season, falling to rival South Carolina. South Carolina may be the worst team in the SEC. Clemson had a chance to tie with three free throws late in the game, but Tanner Smith missed one and the game was pretty much over. NC State had another late letdown. They weren't favored to win on the road against Stanford, but had the game pretty much in control and were not able to hang on. Virginia Tech also had a tough loss, at home to Kansas State. They played well in the first half and had a six point lead at halftime. But the shots wouldn't fall in the second half and Kansas State was able to put together a run and hold on.
The only ACC team to win on Sunday was Maryland, beating Notre Dame in Washington, DC. This may look like a good win, as Notre Dame was a very good team last year. But the Irish lost a lot off their team this year, and their best player, Tim Abromaitis, is out for the season. Nevertheless, this is a confidence boost for Maryland, and Terrell Stoglin, who had 31 points, continues to be the star for the Terps.
So where does that leave us? Right now Duke and Virginia are the only teams with just one loss. UNC and Miami are the only teams with two losses. You'd have to think that the damage has already been done in terms of the national consciousness. It's going to be hard for the ACC to earn more respect, especially once conference play starts. There aren't many chances for that this week, with a lack of exciting matchups. Among the best games during the week:
Memphis at Miami (Tuesday)
Georgia Tech at Georgia (Wednesday)
Virginia Tech at Rhode Island (Wednesday)
Boston College at Providence (Thursday)
Thursday, December 01, 2011
ACC/Big Ten Challenge Thoughts
It wasn't the best of weeks for the ACC. The Big Ten had its best ever success in the challenge, winning 8-4. Out of the four wins by the ACC, one was bottom-feeder Wake Forest. A lot of other teams were not able to rise to the challenge (no pun intended).
The most impressive win belongs to Ohio State. The Buckeyes came ready to play and thoroughly outclassed Duke. That Ohio State won was not a surprise - but the margin of victory definitely raised some eyebrows. You might not see Ohio State play that well again this year. On the other side, I don't think Duke has a lot to be worried about. They have played a very difficult schedule and have only this one loss. They do need to get more consistent play from Seth Curry, though. The backcourt can't be all Austin Rivers.
The best win for the ACC is probably Virginia beating Michigan. The Wolverines are a top 15 team that has played well so far this year. Virginia certainly has potential, and if they can get continue to get big contributions from Mike Scott they will be a force in the ACC. I think the most disappointing loss belongs to NC State. The Wolfpack have much more reason for optimism this year. Even though Indiana is much improved, though, NC State were up late in the second half only to see the Hoosiers go on a roll. The defense really failed the Wolfpack.
I have to give credit to Wake Forest. This is definitely the best win in the two year tenure of Jeff Bzdelik. I have been pretty hard on Bzdelik, but if he can get his team to finish better than 11th in the ACC this year I have to admit that he's doing a decent job.
After watching Virginia Tech's game against Minnesota last night, I wanted to say a few things about expectations. A lot of teams' fans are very concerned with the NCAA Tournament at this point in the season, thinking that one game here or there is a make-or-break game. The reality is that it's very tough to get to the Big Dance - that's part of what makes it so special. Based on how they performed this week and the perception of the league as a whole, I would guess that the ACC would get four teams in this year (just like last year). You know that Duke and Carolina will get in. Florida State, despite their early struggles, should get in. That leaves one spot for Virginia, Miami, Clemson, Virginia Tech and NC State.
It's pointless to get too hung up over one loss in November. If you make the NCAA Tournament, you will have earned it. It will likely require a 10-6 conference record. If you are a team like Virginia Tech, with a lot of young players, it's unlikely that this is the year to break the drought. So I would say to fans to just enjoy the development of the team and not waste too much energy worrying about that bubble.
It wasn't the best of weeks for the ACC. The Big Ten had its best ever success in the challenge, winning 8-4. Out of the four wins by the ACC, one was bottom-feeder Wake Forest. A lot of other teams were not able to rise to the challenge (no pun intended).
The most impressive win belongs to Ohio State. The Buckeyes came ready to play and thoroughly outclassed Duke. That Ohio State won was not a surprise - but the margin of victory definitely raised some eyebrows. You might not see Ohio State play that well again this year. On the other side, I don't think Duke has a lot to be worried about. They have played a very difficult schedule and have only this one loss. They do need to get more consistent play from Seth Curry, though. The backcourt can't be all Austin Rivers.
The best win for the ACC is probably Virginia beating Michigan. The Wolverines are a top 15 team that has played well so far this year. Virginia certainly has potential, and if they can get continue to get big contributions from Mike Scott they will be a force in the ACC. I think the most disappointing loss belongs to NC State. The Wolfpack have much more reason for optimism this year. Even though Indiana is much improved, though, NC State were up late in the second half only to see the Hoosiers go on a roll. The defense really failed the Wolfpack.
I have to give credit to Wake Forest. This is definitely the best win in the two year tenure of Jeff Bzdelik. I have been pretty hard on Bzdelik, but if he can get his team to finish better than 11th in the ACC this year I have to admit that he's doing a decent job.
After watching Virginia Tech's game against Minnesota last night, I wanted to say a few things about expectations. A lot of teams' fans are very concerned with the NCAA Tournament at this point in the season, thinking that one game here or there is a make-or-break game. The reality is that it's very tough to get to the Big Dance - that's part of what makes it so special. Based on how they performed this week and the perception of the league as a whole, I would guess that the ACC would get four teams in this year (just like last year). You know that Duke and Carolina will get in. Florida State, despite their early struggles, should get in. That leaves one spot for Virginia, Miami, Clemson, Virginia Tech and NC State.
It's pointless to get too hung up over one loss in November. If you make the NCAA Tournament, you will have earned it. It will likely require a 10-6 conference record. If you are a team like Virginia Tech, with a lot of young players, it's unlikely that this is the year to break the drought. So I would say to fans to just enjoy the development of the team and not waste too much energy worrying about that bubble.
Tuesday, November 29, 2011
ACC/Big Ten Challenge Preview: Part 2
Based on my predictions, Tuesday's games don't match up well for the ACC. So will Wednesday shape up any better? Let's take a look:
Indiana at NC State
7:15 p.m., ESPN2
This is definitely a favorable matchup for the ACC. NC State has played well this year, with wins over Texas and a solid Princeton team. They will face an improved Indiana team, but one that is still trying to come back from being way down in the Big Ten. Indiana's best win is over Butler, who is not anywhere near where they were last March. I think NC State wins this one fairly easily.
Pick: NC State
Penn State at Boston College
7:15 p.m., ESPNU
Wow what a stinker. Boston College has been really really bad so far, with a 2-4 record. All four of those losses have been by double digits. Penn State's best win is a home game against South Florida. They recently lost to St. Joseph's by 18 points in a game in which they were down 22-0. You would have to be the biggest college hoops junkie in the universe to watch more than 30 seconds of this game.
Pick: Penn State
Florida State at Michigan State
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Florida State lost a big opportunity last weekend in the Bahamas. With UConn being upset by UCF, all FSU had to do to play in the championship game was beat Harvard. Instead, they lost in an ugly game, had to play UConn and lost that game too. They have a chance to get back on a good note with a road win against Michigan State. The Spartans are in a bit of a rebuilding mode, already losing to Duke and North Carolina this year. Michigan State is tough to beat at home, though.
Pick: Michigan State
Virginia Tech at Minnesota
9:15 p.m., ESPN2
The Hokies have been playing pretty solid basketball this year, with the lone loss being to top 5 Syracuse. They bounced back to beat Oklahoma State and St. Bonaventure in what was a potential trap game. Minnesota has also been playing pretty well, with solid wins over mid-majors Fairfield and Indiana State. Unfortunately, they lost their best player, Trevor Mbakwe, for the season, and lost by double digits to Dayton. This is a tough game to call - I think the fact that the young players for Virginia Tech are playing their first true road game of the year will prove to be a little too much to overcome.
Pick: Minnesota
Wake Forest at Nebraska
9:15 p.m., ESPNU
Wake got a little bit of a boost in their last game, with a win over a power conference team in Texas Tech. They needed that, after a lopsided loss against an Arizona State squad that is not at all good. Nebraska is of course a newcomer to the Big Ten. They have a good win over Southern Cal on the road, and a loss at home to Oregon. Nebraska will probably finish in the bottom third of the Big Ten, but they should have enough to beat Wake at home.
Pick: Nebraska
Wisconsin at North Carolina
9:30 p.m., ESPN
You can stop the talk of North Carolina going undefeated. They had a very surprising loss in a virtual road game against UNLV. The Tar Heels have a lot of talent, but haven't really been able to gel so far. That being said, I don't expect them to lose to Wisconsin. Bo Ryan has a solid team once again, but they haven't really been tested. Their best win so far is against BYU, who doesn't have Jimmer Fredette any more.
Pick: North Carolina
The Big Ten has won the challenge the last two years and it looks like that might continue this year. Based on my predictions, the Big Ten will win it 8-4. But you never know - an upset here or there can be a big difference. One thing is for sure: there are plenty of good games to watch the next couple days!
Based on my predictions, Tuesday's games don't match up well for the ACC. So will Wednesday shape up any better? Let's take a look:
Indiana at NC State
7:15 p.m., ESPN2
This is definitely a favorable matchup for the ACC. NC State has played well this year, with wins over Texas and a solid Princeton team. They will face an improved Indiana team, but one that is still trying to come back from being way down in the Big Ten. Indiana's best win is over Butler, who is not anywhere near where they were last March. I think NC State wins this one fairly easily.
Pick: NC State
Penn State at Boston College
7:15 p.m., ESPNU
Wow what a stinker. Boston College has been really really bad so far, with a 2-4 record. All four of those losses have been by double digits. Penn State's best win is a home game against South Florida. They recently lost to St. Joseph's by 18 points in a game in which they were down 22-0. You would have to be the biggest college hoops junkie in the universe to watch more than 30 seconds of this game.
Pick: Penn State
Florida State at Michigan State
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Florida State lost a big opportunity last weekend in the Bahamas. With UConn being upset by UCF, all FSU had to do to play in the championship game was beat Harvard. Instead, they lost in an ugly game, had to play UConn and lost that game too. They have a chance to get back on a good note with a road win against Michigan State. The Spartans are in a bit of a rebuilding mode, already losing to Duke and North Carolina this year. Michigan State is tough to beat at home, though.
Pick: Michigan State
Virginia Tech at Minnesota
9:15 p.m., ESPN2
The Hokies have been playing pretty solid basketball this year, with the lone loss being to top 5 Syracuse. They bounced back to beat Oklahoma State and St. Bonaventure in what was a potential trap game. Minnesota has also been playing pretty well, with solid wins over mid-majors Fairfield and Indiana State. Unfortunately, they lost their best player, Trevor Mbakwe, for the season, and lost by double digits to Dayton. This is a tough game to call - I think the fact that the young players for Virginia Tech are playing their first true road game of the year will prove to be a little too much to overcome.
Pick: Minnesota
Wake Forest at Nebraska
9:15 p.m., ESPNU
Wake got a little bit of a boost in their last game, with a win over a power conference team in Texas Tech. They needed that, after a lopsided loss against an Arizona State squad that is not at all good. Nebraska is of course a newcomer to the Big Ten. They have a good win over Southern Cal on the road, and a loss at home to Oregon. Nebraska will probably finish in the bottom third of the Big Ten, but they should have enough to beat Wake at home.
Pick: Nebraska
Wisconsin at North Carolina
9:30 p.m., ESPN
You can stop the talk of North Carolina going undefeated. They had a very surprising loss in a virtual road game against UNLV. The Tar Heels have a lot of talent, but haven't really been able to gel so far. That being said, I don't expect them to lose to Wisconsin. Bo Ryan has a solid team once again, but they haven't really been tested. Their best win so far is against BYU, who doesn't have Jimmer Fredette any more.
Pick: North Carolina
The Big Ten has won the challenge the last two years and it looks like that might continue this year. Based on my predictions, the Big Ten will win it 8-4. But you never know - an upset here or there can be a big difference. One thing is for sure: there are plenty of good games to watch the next couple days!
Monday, November 28, 2011
ACC/Big Ten Challenge Preview: Part 1
The ACC/Big Ten Challenge is always one of the highlights of the basketball season. For many ACC teams, this game is their stiffest challenge and a good benchmark for how the team is progressing. This year, the challenge is a little different. Now that the Big Ten has added Nebraska, every team from the ACC can play in the event. And now that there are 12 teams, we need a good tie-breaker in case it ends up 6-6. So I'm going to make one up. I will say the conference that ends up with more road victories will win the title - it's always important to play well on the road.
So here is a look ahead at Tuesday's games:
Michigan at Virginia
7:00 p.m., ESPN2
Virginia has had one hiccup so far this year, against TCU. Other than that they have been solid, but not spectacular. They have a good chance to make a statement against a Michigan team that should make the NCAA Tournament this year. Michigan is ranked #14, with a win over Memphis and their only loss being to Duke. I think UVA is still finding its way, and I like the Wolverines in this one.
Pick: Michigan
Northwestern at Georgia Tech
7:15 p.m., ESPNU
Georgia Tech's best win so far is against VCU, which lost a lot from its Final Four team last year. They have not played since last Wednesday. They will take on Northwestern, who is 5-0 with wins against LSU and Seton Hall. There really isn't a lot of interest in this game, and you can probably flip a coin to see who wins. I'll take the team that's actually beaten LSU.
Pick: Northwestern
Illinois at Maryland
7:30 p.m., ESPN
I'm pretty sure Maryland is on ESPN just because of their name. They are not a good basketball team. The Terps are 3-2, and both of their losses have been by more than 20 points. Illinois has been quiet to start the season, going 6-0 against a whole lot of nobodies. Again, this is not a marquee game. I think the Terps win a game that might not get out of the 40s.
Pick: Maryland
Miami at Purdue
9:00 p.m., ESPN2
Now this is a better matchup. Miami is a bit of an enigma early in the season, with a loss in their only real test, an overtime game against Ole Miss. They have been getting great contributions from their two solid guards, Durand Scott and Malcolm Grant, but not much else. Purdue lost their two best players from last year but still have Robbie Hummel. Their best win is against Temple. Purdue gets the nod here because they are really tough to beat at home.
Pick: Purdue
Clemson at Iowa
9:15 p.m., ESPNU
I have been disappointed with how Clemson has started their season. They have already lost two home games, to Charleston and Coastal Carolina. They need a solid performance here in Iowa. The Hawkeyes have not been good for a while, and have already lost to Campbell at home and Creighton (by 23!). The Tigers need to win this game.
Pick: Clemson
Duke at Ohio State
9:30 p.m., ESPN
They have saved the best for last on Tuesday. Duke and Ohio State are both top 5 teams. The Blue Devils have already played a very difficult schedule and have come through unscathed. This is their third straight game against a ranked opponent, and the toughest of the three. Jared Sullinger is back for Ohio State, and is averaging almost 19 points per game. Ohio State has already beaten top 10 opponent Florida at home. They should win this one as well.
Pick: Ohio State
If my picks hold true, the ACC will have a lot of work to do in Wednesday's games. I'll be back with a preview of those tomorrow.
The ACC/Big Ten Challenge is always one of the highlights of the basketball season. For many ACC teams, this game is their stiffest challenge and a good benchmark for how the team is progressing. This year, the challenge is a little different. Now that the Big Ten has added Nebraska, every team from the ACC can play in the event. And now that there are 12 teams, we need a good tie-breaker in case it ends up 6-6. So I'm going to make one up. I will say the conference that ends up with more road victories will win the title - it's always important to play well on the road.
So here is a look ahead at Tuesday's games:
Michigan at Virginia
7:00 p.m., ESPN2
Virginia has had one hiccup so far this year, against TCU. Other than that they have been solid, but not spectacular. They have a good chance to make a statement against a Michigan team that should make the NCAA Tournament this year. Michigan is ranked #14, with a win over Memphis and their only loss being to Duke. I think UVA is still finding its way, and I like the Wolverines in this one.
Pick: Michigan
Northwestern at Georgia Tech
7:15 p.m., ESPNU
Georgia Tech's best win so far is against VCU, which lost a lot from its Final Four team last year. They have not played since last Wednesday. They will take on Northwestern, who is 5-0 with wins against LSU and Seton Hall. There really isn't a lot of interest in this game, and you can probably flip a coin to see who wins. I'll take the team that's actually beaten LSU.
Pick: Northwestern
Illinois at Maryland
7:30 p.m., ESPN
I'm pretty sure Maryland is on ESPN just because of their name. They are not a good basketball team. The Terps are 3-2, and both of their losses have been by more than 20 points. Illinois has been quiet to start the season, going 6-0 against a whole lot of nobodies. Again, this is not a marquee game. I think the Terps win a game that might not get out of the 40s.
Pick: Maryland
Miami at Purdue
9:00 p.m., ESPN2
Now this is a better matchup. Miami is a bit of an enigma early in the season, with a loss in their only real test, an overtime game against Ole Miss. They have been getting great contributions from their two solid guards, Durand Scott and Malcolm Grant, but not much else. Purdue lost their two best players from last year but still have Robbie Hummel. Their best win is against Temple. Purdue gets the nod here because they are really tough to beat at home.
Pick: Purdue
Clemson at Iowa
9:15 p.m., ESPNU
I have been disappointed with how Clemson has started their season. They have already lost two home games, to Charleston and Coastal Carolina. They need a solid performance here in Iowa. The Hawkeyes have not been good for a while, and have already lost to Campbell at home and Creighton (by 23!). The Tigers need to win this game.
Pick: Clemson
Duke at Ohio State
9:30 p.m., ESPN
They have saved the best for last on Tuesday. Duke and Ohio State are both top 5 teams. The Blue Devils have already played a very difficult schedule and have come through unscathed. This is their third straight game against a ranked opponent, and the toughest of the three. Jared Sullinger is back for Ohio State, and is averaging almost 19 points per game. Ohio State has already beaten top 10 opponent Florida at home. They should win this one as well.
Pick: Ohio State
If my picks hold true, the ACC will have a lot of work to do in Wednesday's games. I'll be back with a preview of those tomorrow.
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
ACC Update: 11/22
It was very difficult to watch last year as Wake Forest struggled so much to one of the worst years in ACC history. Unfortunately, that may happen again this year with Boston College. Last night, BC played at home against UMass, a team not expected to contend in the Atlantic 10. And the Eagles lost by 36 points. 36! I can't even describe in words how bad that is. This is the Atlantic Coast Conference! I know the ACC is supposed to be down again this year but man, that is really embarrassing. In this game, BC shot 31% from the field, 23% from 3, and 52% from the line. I really hope Steve Donahue can turn things around quickly.
On the positive side, NC State had a very nice win against Texas. They were down at one point by 18 points, but sparked by the disqualification of J'Covan Brown, they came all the way back. In a strange ending, CJ Leslie missed two free throws with the chance to put the game out of reach. And then Texas took a desperation 3 that an NC State player swatted away. Texas was screaming for a goaltending call, to no avail. It looks like NC State will be one of the better teams in the ACC this year.
Duke got a win as expected over Tennessee in the first round of the Maui Invitational. This sets up a very interesting re-match of last year's NCAA Tournament game between Duke and Michigan. John Beilein has really done a good job building the Wolverine program to fit his 1-3-1 defense, and they have a good shot of pulling the upset.
Another underrated game on the schedule tonight is Clemson vs. Coastal Carolina. Clemson had a very disappointing loss to Coastal Carolina over the weekend. They were down double digits in the second half before mounting a charge that fell just short. Coastal Carolina had a terrific year last year in the Big South under Coach Cliff Ellis and definitely has the firepower to beat Clemson.
In other conference news, there is some trouble brewing at Maryland. Besides the school voting to get rid of eight sports teams, after their latest loss, Coach Mark Turgeon had some strong words to say to his team. He said, among other things, "This is the biggest challenge I've ever had in coaching. It's not even close." Check out this Washington Post story on the issue:
Coach Turgeon Losing His Players?
It was very difficult to watch last year as Wake Forest struggled so much to one of the worst years in ACC history. Unfortunately, that may happen again this year with Boston College. Last night, BC played at home against UMass, a team not expected to contend in the Atlantic 10. And the Eagles lost by 36 points. 36! I can't even describe in words how bad that is. This is the Atlantic Coast Conference! I know the ACC is supposed to be down again this year but man, that is really embarrassing. In this game, BC shot 31% from the field, 23% from 3, and 52% from the line. I really hope Steve Donahue can turn things around quickly.
On the positive side, NC State had a very nice win against Texas. They were down at one point by 18 points, but sparked by the disqualification of J'Covan Brown, they came all the way back. In a strange ending, CJ Leslie missed two free throws with the chance to put the game out of reach. And then Texas took a desperation 3 that an NC State player swatted away. Texas was screaming for a goaltending call, to no avail. It looks like NC State will be one of the better teams in the ACC this year.
Duke got a win as expected over Tennessee in the first round of the Maui Invitational. This sets up a very interesting re-match of last year's NCAA Tournament game between Duke and Michigan. John Beilein has really done a good job building the Wolverine program to fit his 1-3-1 defense, and they have a good shot of pulling the upset.
Another underrated game on the schedule tonight is Clemson vs. Coastal Carolina. Clemson had a very disappointing loss to Coastal Carolina over the weekend. They were down double digits in the second half before mounting a charge that fell just short. Coastal Carolina had a terrific year last year in the Big South under Coach Cliff Ellis and definitely has the firepower to beat Clemson.
In other conference news, there is some trouble brewing at Maryland. Besides the school voting to get rid of eight sports teams, after their latest loss, Coach Mark Turgeon had some strong words to say to his team. He said, among other things, "This is the biggest challenge I've ever had in coaching. It's not even close." Check out this Washington Post story on the issue:
Coach Turgeon Losing His Players?
Saturday, November 19, 2011
Tournament Update
A lot has gone on in the last few days - some good, some bad for the ACC teams. Here is an update on where these early season tournaments are now:
Let's start in Charleston with Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets lost their first game of the year in a pretty uninspired effort to St. Joseph's, 66-53. They were able to come back and beat VCU, last year's NCAA Tournament darling, 73-60. That sets up a fifth place game on Sunday against LSU, a team that has been an SEC doormat for the last couple years.
In Puerto Rico, Maryland had a very tough first game. They managed only 42 points against Alabama, with very little production from their starters. Alabama is a very solid team, but this was definitely a bad performance from the Terps. Fortunately for them, they were able to bounce back the next day to earn a nice win over Colorado. Colorado is a little bit of an unknown commodity, having come close to the NCAA Tournament last year. That sets up a fifth place game on Sunday against Iona, an underrated team that lost to Purdue by just one point.
The most disappointing loss for an ACC team has to be Virginia's two point defeat in the Virgin Islands yesterday to TCU. The Horned Frogs were picked to be near the bottom of the Mountain West. Former Hokie Hank Thorns came up big against Virginia, and the Cavs were only able to shoot 37.5% for the game. The other bad news for Virginia is that since Norfolk State was able to upset Drexel, they will have to play a Drexel team that is supposed to be very solid in the CAA. Virginia's third game will be against either Winthrop or Drake.
Virginia Tech took care of business in their NIT Tip-Off game against Florida International. All four top seeds advanced to Madison Square Garden next week. So the Hokies will take on Syracuse on Wednesday, followed by either Stanford or Oklahoma State.
The other game of note from yesterday was Boston College going down by 22 points to Holy Cross. This is not a good sign for a team that is expected to be quite bad this year. They need to right the ship against UMass on Monday before heading to the 76 Classic.
A lot has gone on in the last few days - some good, some bad for the ACC teams. Here is an update on where these early season tournaments are now:
Let's start in Charleston with Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets lost their first game of the year in a pretty uninspired effort to St. Joseph's, 66-53. They were able to come back and beat VCU, last year's NCAA Tournament darling, 73-60. That sets up a fifth place game on Sunday against LSU, a team that has been an SEC doormat for the last couple years.
In Puerto Rico, Maryland had a very tough first game. They managed only 42 points against Alabama, with very little production from their starters. Alabama is a very solid team, but this was definitely a bad performance from the Terps. Fortunately for them, they were able to bounce back the next day to earn a nice win over Colorado. Colorado is a little bit of an unknown commodity, having come close to the NCAA Tournament last year. That sets up a fifth place game on Sunday against Iona, an underrated team that lost to Purdue by just one point.
The most disappointing loss for an ACC team has to be Virginia's two point defeat in the Virgin Islands yesterday to TCU. The Horned Frogs were picked to be near the bottom of the Mountain West. Former Hokie Hank Thorns came up big against Virginia, and the Cavs were only able to shoot 37.5% for the game. The other bad news for Virginia is that since Norfolk State was able to upset Drexel, they will have to play a Drexel team that is supposed to be very solid in the CAA. Virginia's third game will be against either Winthrop or Drake.
Virginia Tech took care of business in their NIT Tip-Off game against Florida International. All four top seeds advanced to Madison Square Garden next week. So the Hokies will take on Syracuse on Wednesday, followed by either Stanford or Oklahoma State.
The other game of note from yesterday was Boston College going down by 22 points to Holy Cross. This is not a good sign for a team that is expected to be quite bad this year. They need to right the ship against UMass on Monday before heading to the 76 Classic.
Tuesday, November 15, 2011
Early-Season Tournaments
It seems like every year there is a new early-season tournament attracting several top teams. As most are taking place in the next week, here's a look at where the ACC teams are going for what are very meaningful non-conference games.
Boston College - 76 Classic
76 Classic Bracket
Boston College will head out to Anaheim next week for the 76 Classic. They aren't expected to be very good this year, but fortunately for them the field for this event isn't as good as it has been in past years. The Eagles will play St. Louis in the first game, a game they can definitely win. If they win that one, they will probably play Villanova in the second round. The Wildcats aren't as good as they have been in past years but should be able to beat BC. Potential final round opponents for BC include Oklahoma and Washington State.
Clemson - Diamond Head Classic
Diamond Head Classic Bracket
Clemson has a while to go before its tournament. The Diamond Head Classic in Hawaii isn't played until December. Their first game is against UTEP. More on that later in the season.
Duke - Maui Invitational
Maui Invitational Bracket
The Maui Invitational has the best pedigree of the early season tournaments - it almost always draws either North Carolina or Duke. This year the Blue Devils take part in a solid field. They take on Tennessee in the first round. The Vols are in a bit of a rebuilding mode after NCAA violations and the firing of Coach Bruce Pearl. Duke will then play either Michigan or Memphis. The Wolverines gave Duke all they could handle in the NCAA Tournament last year. And Memphis is a preseason top 10 team. The other side of the bracket isn't as strong, but Kansas presents a very tough challenge if Duke meets them in the final.
Florida State - Battle For Atlantis
Battle For Atlantis Bracket
Florida State is playing in a brand new tournament at the Atlantis resort in the Bahamas next week. The tournament is set up so hopefully FSU will play UConn in the final. To get there, the Noles will have to beat UMass in their first game. Then they will play either Utah or Harvard. UConn will likely coast through its side of the bracket so FSU would likely have to win two games to play the Huskies in the final.
Georgia Tech - Charleston Classic
Charleston Classic Bracket
Georgia Tech is another team that isn't expected to do much this year that has a chance to make a splash in an early-season tournament. They will take on Saint Joseph's on Thursday in the first round of the Charleston Classic. Their next game will be against either VCU or Seton Hall. The best team on the other side of the bracket is probably Northwestern.
Maryland - Puerto Rico Tip-Off
Puerto Rico Tip-Off Bracket
The Terps head to Puerto Rico this week to face a challenging field. Their first round game is against Alabama, a team that has NCAA aspirations. If they can find a way to win that game, the Terps will have another tough matchup against the winner of Wichita State-Colorado. Purdue and Temple are on the other side of the bracket. It wouldn't be a surprise if Maryland lost all three games, but 1-2 is a more likely outcome.
North Carolina - Las Vegas Invitational
For some reason it's hard to find much information for this tournament. From what I can figure out, UNC will play two games in Chapel Hill, against Mississippi Valley State and Tennessee State. They will then travel to Las Vegas next week to take on South Carolina, and then either UNLV or USC. It's hard to think that UNC will lose any of those games.
NC State - TicketCity Legends Classic
NC State is participating in a special four team event in East Rutherford, NJ this weekend. Their first game on Saturday is against a Vanderbilt team that was in the top 10 in the preseason, but already lost at home to Cleveland State. Then the Wolfpack will play either Texas or Oregon State. It's not far fetched to think NC State could win both games.
Virginia - Paradise Jam
Paradise Jam Bracket
The Cavaliers travel to the US Virgin Islands this week to take part in the Paradise Jam. This is one of the weakest tournament fields I've seen, and Virginia could win the whole thing. Their first game is against TCU, a team that has had a very poor basketball program. Then they will take on either Drexel or Norfolk State. If it shakes out like it should, UVA would take on Marquette in the final. The Golden Eagles could be a solid team this year, coming off a Sweet 16 appearance last year.
Virginia Tech - NIT Season Tip-Off
NIT Season Tip-Off Bracket
The Hokies have already started playing in the NIT Season Tip-Off. They beat Monmouth on Monday. Surprisingly, they will face Florida International instead of George Mason. FIU beat the Patriots in overtime. If the Hokies can beat FIU, then they will head to Madison Square Garden. The likely matchup in the semi-finals next week would be Syracuse. The other teams likely to advance to MSG are Stanford and Oklahoma State. Interestingly, the Hokies could end up playing Oklahoma State twice this season - they have a scheduled game in Stillwater later this year.
Wake Forest - Old Spice Classic
Old Spice Classic Bracket
Wake Forest might have a rude awakening this season with a trip to Orlando next week to face some tough opponents. They might be in a position where they are happy just winning one out of three games. The first round matchup for the Demon Deacons is Dayton, a team with a new coach that has at least made the NIT in recent years. The second round matchup would be against either Fairfield (who isn't bad) or Arizona State. The best teams on the other side of the bracket are Minnesota and Texas Tech.
Miami is not playing in an early-season tournament this year.
It seems like every year there is a new early-season tournament attracting several top teams. As most are taking place in the next week, here's a look at where the ACC teams are going for what are very meaningful non-conference games.
Boston College - 76 Classic
76 Classic Bracket
Boston College will head out to Anaheim next week for the 76 Classic. They aren't expected to be very good this year, but fortunately for them the field for this event isn't as good as it has been in past years. The Eagles will play St. Louis in the first game, a game they can definitely win. If they win that one, they will probably play Villanova in the second round. The Wildcats aren't as good as they have been in past years but should be able to beat BC. Potential final round opponents for BC include Oklahoma and Washington State.
Clemson - Diamond Head Classic
Diamond Head Classic Bracket
Clemson has a while to go before its tournament. The Diamond Head Classic in Hawaii isn't played until December. Their first game is against UTEP. More on that later in the season.
Duke - Maui Invitational
Maui Invitational Bracket
The Maui Invitational has the best pedigree of the early season tournaments - it almost always draws either North Carolina or Duke. This year the Blue Devils take part in a solid field. They take on Tennessee in the first round. The Vols are in a bit of a rebuilding mode after NCAA violations and the firing of Coach Bruce Pearl. Duke will then play either Michigan or Memphis. The Wolverines gave Duke all they could handle in the NCAA Tournament last year. And Memphis is a preseason top 10 team. The other side of the bracket isn't as strong, but Kansas presents a very tough challenge if Duke meets them in the final.
Florida State - Battle For Atlantis
Battle For Atlantis Bracket
Florida State is playing in a brand new tournament at the Atlantis resort in the Bahamas next week. The tournament is set up so hopefully FSU will play UConn in the final. To get there, the Noles will have to beat UMass in their first game. Then they will play either Utah or Harvard. UConn will likely coast through its side of the bracket so FSU would likely have to win two games to play the Huskies in the final.
Georgia Tech - Charleston Classic
Charleston Classic Bracket
Georgia Tech is another team that isn't expected to do much this year that has a chance to make a splash in an early-season tournament. They will take on Saint Joseph's on Thursday in the first round of the Charleston Classic. Their next game will be against either VCU or Seton Hall. The best team on the other side of the bracket is probably Northwestern.
Maryland - Puerto Rico Tip-Off
Puerto Rico Tip-Off Bracket
The Terps head to Puerto Rico this week to face a challenging field. Their first round game is against Alabama, a team that has NCAA aspirations. If they can find a way to win that game, the Terps will have another tough matchup against the winner of Wichita State-Colorado. Purdue and Temple are on the other side of the bracket. It wouldn't be a surprise if Maryland lost all three games, but 1-2 is a more likely outcome.
North Carolina - Las Vegas Invitational
For some reason it's hard to find much information for this tournament. From what I can figure out, UNC will play two games in Chapel Hill, against Mississippi Valley State and Tennessee State. They will then travel to Las Vegas next week to take on South Carolina, and then either UNLV or USC. It's hard to think that UNC will lose any of those games.
NC State - TicketCity Legends Classic
NC State is participating in a special four team event in East Rutherford, NJ this weekend. Their first game on Saturday is against a Vanderbilt team that was in the top 10 in the preseason, but already lost at home to Cleveland State. Then the Wolfpack will play either Texas or Oregon State. It's not far fetched to think NC State could win both games.
Virginia - Paradise Jam
Paradise Jam Bracket
The Cavaliers travel to the US Virgin Islands this week to take part in the Paradise Jam. This is one of the weakest tournament fields I've seen, and Virginia could win the whole thing. Their first game is against TCU, a team that has had a very poor basketball program. Then they will take on either Drexel or Norfolk State. If it shakes out like it should, UVA would take on Marquette in the final. The Golden Eagles could be a solid team this year, coming off a Sweet 16 appearance last year.
Virginia Tech - NIT Season Tip-Off
NIT Season Tip-Off Bracket
The Hokies have already started playing in the NIT Season Tip-Off. They beat Monmouth on Monday. Surprisingly, they will face Florida International instead of George Mason. FIU beat the Patriots in overtime. If the Hokies can beat FIU, then they will head to Madison Square Garden. The likely matchup in the semi-finals next week would be Syracuse. The other teams likely to advance to MSG are Stanford and Oklahoma State. Interestingly, the Hokies could end up playing Oklahoma State twice this season - they have a scheduled game in Stillwater later this year.
Wake Forest - Old Spice Classic
Old Spice Classic Bracket
Wake Forest might have a rude awakening this season with a trip to Orlando next week to face some tough opponents. They might be in a position where they are happy just winning one out of three games. The first round matchup for the Demon Deacons is Dayton, a team with a new coach that has at least made the NIT in recent years. The second round matchup would be against either Fairfield (who isn't bad) or Arizona State. The best teams on the other side of the bracket are Minnesota and Texas Tech.
Miami is not playing in an early-season tournament this year.
Saturday, November 12, 2011
Season Preview
1. North Carolina
2010-2011 record: 29-8 (14-2 ACC)
Games against NCAA Tournament teams: 10
Best non-conference game: 12/3 at Kentucky
Projected Starting Five:
F - Tyler Zeller (Senior)
F - John Henson (Junior)
F - Harrison Barnes (Sophomore)
G - Dexter Strickland (Junior)
G - Kendall Marshall (Sophomore)
There isn't much up for debate: North Carolina is clearly the best team in the ACC. Roy Williams has had three core groups of players that have been outstanding since he's been in Chapel Hill. The first was Felton/McCants/May. The second was Lawson/Hansbrough/Ellington/Green. And now there's this class of players, led by Harrison Barnes.
Barnes came in with so much hype last year. It took him a while to get into his groove in the offense, and once he did he started shooting and didn't stop. I thought he shot a little too much at times, but at points he was brilliant. He is joined in the frontcourt by John Henson and Tyler Zeller, two guys who are definitely capable of putting up big numbers. Henson has to be a guy that NBA scouts are drooling over, with his long arms and high motor.
But the main guy who makes this team go is Kendall Marshall. The turning point last year came when the Tar Heels parted ways with Larry Drew, who never lived up to his potential. Marshall stepped in and was terrific. He isn't the biggest scorer, but can make shots when called upon. He is an excellent distributor and runs Carolina's fast break very well. James McAdoo is the most highly ranked freshman coming in, but will have a hard time getting playing time behind Carolina's other more experienced players.
North Carolina has a pretty solid schedule. They already started things out by beating Michigan State by double digits in that aircraft carrier game. The big matchup is a game in Rupp Arena against a Kentucky team that knocked them out of the NCAA Tournament last year.
The Tar Heels certainly have the talent to win it all for a third time under Roy Williams. They should end up with a very gaudy record, and win the ACC easily. It is really hard to find a weak link with this team. The only thing I would caution is that many people felt the same way about Duke last year, and then they had a significant injury and couldn't get it done. As talented as Barnes is, Marshall is the one guy they can't afford to get hurt. As long as he can stay healthy and in the game, this is one tough team to beat.
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| Harrison Barnes |
2010-2011 record: 29-8 (14-2 ACC)
Games against NCAA Tournament teams: 10
Best non-conference game: 12/3 at Kentucky
Projected Starting Five:
F - Tyler Zeller (Senior)
F - John Henson (Junior)
F - Harrison Barnes (Sophomore)
G - Dexter Strickland (Junior)
G - Kendall Marshall (Sophomore)
There isn't much up for debate: North Carolina is clearly the best team in the ACC. Roy Williams has had three core groups of players that have been outstanding since he's been in Chapel Hill. The first was Felton/McCants/May. The second was Lawson/Hansbrough/Ellington/Green. And now there's this class of players, led by Harrison Barnes.
Barnes came in with so much hype last year. It took him a while to get into his groove in the offense, and once he did he started shooting and didn't stop. I thought he shot a little too much at times, but at points he was brilliant. He is joined in the frontcourt by John Henson and Tyler Zeller, two guys who are definitely capable of putting up big numbers. Henson has to be a guy that NBA scouts are drooling over, with his long arms and high motor.
But the main guy who makes this team go is Kendall Marshall. The turning point last year came when the Tar Heels parted ways with Larry Drew, who never lived up to his potential. Marshall stepped in and was terrific. He isn't the biggest scorer, but can make shots when called upon. He is an excellent distributor and runs Carolina's fast break very well. James McAdoo is the most highly ranked freshman coming in, but will have a hard time getting playing time behind Carolina's other more experienced players.
North Carolina has a pretty solid schedule. They already started things out by beating Michigan State by double digits in that aircraft carrier game. The big matchup is a game in Rupp Arena against a Kentucky team that knocked them out of the NCAA Tournament last year.
The Tar Heels certainly have the talent to win it all for a third time under Roy Williams. They should end up with a very gaudy record, and win the ACC easily. It is really hard to find a weak link with this team. The only thing I would caution is that many people felt the same way about Duke last year, and then they had a significant injury and couldn't get it done. As talented as Barnes is, Marshall is the one guy they can't afford to get hurt. As long as he can stay healthy and in the game, this is one tough team to beat.
Friday, November 11, 2011
Season Preview
2. Duke
2010-2011 record: 32-5 (13-3 ACC)
Games against NCAA Tournament teams: 13
Best non-conference game: 11/29 at Ohio State
Projected Starting Five:
F - Mason Plumlee (Senior)
F - Ryan Kelly (Junior)
G - Andre Dawkins (Junior)
G - Austin Rivers (Freshman)
G - Seth Curry (Junior)
Last year did not go quite as expected for Duke. First, they had to deal with a tough injury to super freshman Kyrie Irving. Then, they had a couple unexpected losses in the regular season. And just when they got Irving back, they had problems integrating him back into the lineup and lost to Arizona in the Sweet 16. Now the Blue Devils will go into this season overshadowed by their hated rivals, UNC.
Duke certainly has the pieces to once again be an elite team. They lose Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith, plus Irving to the NBA draft. They will rely a lot more on the Plumlees this year, who haven't really fulfilled their full potential (they combined for about 12 points per game last year). Ryan Kelly is one player who might have a breakout year. He really improved as the year went on, becoming a threat from the perimeter.
The backcourt has some more question marks. Seth Curry definitely has a lot of talent, but at times he seemed lost among the other talented Duke players last year. Curry scored just 11 points in 3 games in the NCAA Tournament. He will move over to play the point. Andre Dawkins seemed to peak early in the year, and tapered off in ACC play, only three times in ACC games hitting double figures. The other guard is one of the most coveted recruits in the country: Austin Rivers. The son of Boston Celtics Coach Doc Rivers, Austin has the reputation of a big time scorer.
I expect Duke to get their bigs involved much more than in years past. They will have a size advantage on most teams in the conference. The Plumlees will need to be rebounding machines, to get offensives boards for kick-out 3s for Dawkins or Curry. Curry is not their traditional point guard who has a lot of speed, so expect them to not get out in transition as much as a team like North Carolina.
You have to love the way Duke schedules. They have to have one of the toughest non-conference schedules in the country this year. Duke will play Michigan State, Tennessee, Michigan or Memphis (in Maui), Ohio State, Washington, Temple and St. Johns this year. And they could face Kansas in the Maui final. That will get this team battle tested and ready for conference play. There is no reason to think that they will do any worse than 12-4 in the ACC this year (and 2 of those losses might be to UNC).
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| Doc and Austin Rivers |
2010-2011 record: 32-5 (13-3 ACC)
Games against NCAA Tournament teams: 13
Best non-conference game: 11/29 at Ohio State
Projected Starting Five:
F - Mason Plumlee (Senior)
F - Ryan Kelly (Junior)
G - Andre Dawkins (Junior)
G - Austin Rivers (Freshman)
G - Seth Curry (Junior)
Last year did not go quite as expected for Duke. First, they had to deal with a tough injury to super freshman Kyrie Irving. Then, they had a couple unexpected losses in the regular season. And just when they got Irving back, they had problems integrating him back into the lineup and lost to Arizona in the Sweet 16. Now the Blue Devils will go into this season overshadowed by their hated rivals, UNC.
Duke certainly has the pieces to once again be an elite team. They lose Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith, plus Irving to the NBA draft. They will rely a lot more on the Plumlees this year, who haven't really fulfilled their full potential (they combined for about 12 points per game last year). Ryan Kelly is one player who might have a breakout year. He really improved as the year went on, becoming a threat from the perimeter.
The backcourt has some more question marks. Seth Curry definitely has a lot of talent, but at times he seemed lost among the other talented Duke players last year. Curry scored just 11 points in 3 games in the NCAA Tournament. He will move over to play the point. Andre Dawkins seemed to peak early in the year, and tapered off in ACC play, only three times in ACC games hitting double figures. The other guard is one of the most coveted recruits in the country: Austin Rivers. The son of Boston Celtics Coach Doc Rivers, Austin has the reputation of a big time scorer.
I expect Duke to get their bigs involved much more than in years past. They will have a size advantage on most teams in the conference. The Plumlees will need to be rebounding machines, to get offensives boards for kick-out 3s for Dawkins or Curry. Curry is not their traditional point guard who has a lot of speed, so expect them to not get out in transition as much as a team like North Carolina.
You have to love the way Duke schedules. They have to have one of the toughest non-conference schedules in the country this year. Duke will play Michigan State, Tennessee, Michigan or Memphis (in Maui), Ohio State, Washington, Temple and St. Johns this year. And they could face Kansas in the Maui final. That will get this team battle tested and ready for conference play. There is no reason to think that they will do any worse than 12-4 in the ACC this year (and 2 of those losses might be to UNC).
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Season Preview
3. Florida State
2010-2011 record: 23-11 (11-5 ACC)
Games against NCAA Tournament teams: 8
Best non-conference game: 11/30 at Michigan State
Projected Starting Five:
F - Bernard James (Senior)
F - Okaro White (Sophomore)
G - Deividas Dulkys (Senior)
G - Michael Snaer (Junior)
G - Jeff Peterson (Senior)
It has been interesting to trace the progression of Florida State over the years. For years they were the most predictable team in the ACC: they would play very well at home, beat Duke or UNC each year, and finish somewhere around 8-8 in the conference, just missing out on the NCAA Tournament (about where Virginia Tech is now). Then they took a step up, making the NCAA Tournament in back-to-back years but failing to win a game. Last year the Seminoles took the next big step, making it to the Sweet 16. I think they have the ability to duplicate that success.
When you are talking about Florida State and a Leonard Hamilton coached team you think of defense. The Seminoles will once again have the length to cause people fits. They do lose Chris Singleton, who was definitely their best player, although they played pretty well without him when he was hurt last year. I think their key player this year is Bernard James. James is 26 years old and coming off a pretty good year. He will be the main force down low. In the perimeter, Michael Snaer will be key. Snaer averaged exactly 8.8 points per game both of his first two years, but improved his free throw and three point percentage last year. The point guard spot will be manned by an interesting player. Jeff Peterson played at Iowa, then Arkansas, then transferred to Florida State. His best season was 2008-2009, where he averaged double figures for the Hawkeyes.
Florida State's schedule is somewhat unimpressive. They will have two tough matchups against rival Florida and Michigan State, but should be able to win their other non-conference games. They have a very tough start to the ACC season, though. Their first three games are at Clemson, at Virginia Tech, and home against UNC. If they can get through that, the second half of the conference schedule is much more forgiving. So I expect them to be riding some nice momentum going into March.
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| Bernard James |
2010-2011 record: 23-11 (11-5 ACC)
Games against NCAA Tournament teams: 8
Best non-conference game: 11/30 at Michigan State
Projected Starting Five:
F - Bernard James (Senior)
F - Okaro White (Sophomore)
G - Deividas Dulkys (Senior)
G - Michael Snaer (Junior)
G - Jeff Peterson (Senior)
It has been interesting to trace the progression of Florida State over the years. For years they were the most predictable team in the ACC: they would play very well at home, beat Duke or UNC each year, and finish somewhere around 8-8 in the conference, just missing out on the NCAA Tournament (about where Virginia Tech is now). Then they took a step up, making the NCAA Tournament in back-to-back years but failing to win a game. Last year the Seminoles took the next big step, making it to the Sweet 16. I think they have the ability to duplicate that success.
When you are talking about Florida State and a Leonard Hamilton coached team you think of defense. The Seminoles will once again have the length to cause people fits. They do lose Chris Singleton, who was definitely their best player, although they played pretty well without him when he was hurt last year. I think their key player this year is Bernard James. James is 26 years old and coming off a pretty good year. He will be the main force down low. In the perimeter, Michael Snaer will be key. Snaer averaged exactly 8.8 points per game both of his first two years, but improved his free throw and three point percentage last year. The point guard spot will be manned by an interesting player. Jeff Peterson played at Iowa, then Arkansas, then transferred to Florida State. His best season was 2008-2009, where he averaged double figures for the Hawkeyes.
Florida State's schedule is somewhat unimpressive. They will have two tough matchups against rival Florida and Michigan State, but should be able to win their other non-conference games. They have a very tough start to the ACC season, though. Their first three games are at Clemson, at Virginia Tech, and home against UNC. If they can get through that, the second half of the conference schedule is much more forgiving. So I expect them to be riding some nice momentum going into March.
Wednesday, November 09, 2011
Season Preview
4. Clemson
2010-2011 record: 22-12 (9-7 ACC)
Games against NCAA Tournament teams: 6
Best non-conference game: 12/10 at Arizona
Projected Starting Five:
F - Devin Booker (Junior)
F - Milton Jennings (Junior)
G - Tanner Smith (Senior)
G - T.J. Sapp (Freshman)
G - Andre Young (Senior)
The team that I was probably most surprised about when the ACC media preseason rankings came out was Clemson. Coming off an NCAA Tournament berth, with most of their players back, Clemson was picked 7th. I'm a believer in Brad Brownell and the Tigers, and think they are in for a good year. I got the chance to see Clemson in person in the ACC Tournament last year, and was very impressed at how they competed despite not having the same level of talent as North Carolina. Coach Brownell implemented his system, a big change from the pressing style of Oliver Purnell, and made it work. The team peaked at just the right time.
So what will this year's team look like? Expect a heavy dose of Devin Booker, who isn't the same player his brother Trevor was, but can fill up the stat sheet. I expect Booker to blossom into a double figure scorer. Milton Jennings has shown flashes of talent, and needs to show some consistency. In the backcourt, Andre Young is the go-to guy. He will get his points. I'm sure Clemson fans want to see more from Tanner Smith this year. His points per game went down last year, and he looked to be lost in the flow of the game at times.
Clemson has the opportunity to get off to one of their usual good starts. They don't have a lot in the non-conference, outside of a trip to Arizona. If the draw works out well, they could face some tough opponents in the Diamond Head Classic. They have a great opportunity with home games early against Florida State and Duke to make a statement to the rest of the league.
I thought Clemson would take a step down once Oliver Purnell left, but they overachieved last year. And I think with a second year under his belt, Coach Brownell will get the most out of his players and go the NCAA Tournament again this year.
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| Brad Brownell |
2010-2011 record: 22-12 (9-7 ACC)
Games against NCAA Tournament teams: 6
Best non-conference game: 12/10 at Arizona
Projected Starting Five:
F - Devin Booker (Junior)
F - Milton Jennings (Junior)
G - Tanner Smith (Senior)
G - T.J. Sapp (Freshman)
G - Andre Young (Senior)
The team that I was probably most surprised about when the ACC media preseason rankings came out was Clemson. Coming off an NCAA Tournament berth, with most of their players back, Clemson was picked 7th. I'm a believer in Brad Brownell and the Tigers, and think they are in for a good year. I got the chance to see Clemson in person in the ACC Tournament last year, and was very impressed at how they competed despite not having the same level of talent as North Carolina. Coach Brownell implemented his system, a big change from the pressing style of Oliver Purnell, and made it work. The team peaked at just the right time.
So what will this year's team look like? Expect a heavy dose of Devin Booker, who isn't the same player his brother Trevor was, but can fill up the stat sheet. I expect Booker to blossom into a double figure scorer. Milton Jennings has shown flashes of talent, and needs to show some consistency. In the backcourt, Andre Young is the go-to guy. He will get his points. I'm sure Clemson fans want to see more from Tanner Smith this year. His points per game went down last year, and he looked to be lost in the flow of the game at times.
Clemson has the opportunity to get off to one of their usual good starts. They don't have a lot in the non-conference, outside of a trip to Arizona. If the draw works out well, they could face some tough opponents in the Diamond Head Classic. They have a great opportunity with home games early against Florida State and Duke to make a statement to the rest of the league.
I thought Clemson would take a step down once Oliver Purnell left, but they overachieved last year. And I think with a second year under his belt, Coach Brownell will get the most out of his players and go the NCAA Tournament again this year.
Tuesday, November 08, 2011
Season Preview
5. Virginia
2010-2011 record: 16-15 (7-9 ACC)
Games against NCAA Tournament teams: 9
Best non-conference game: 12/18 at Oregon
Projected Starting Five:
C - Assane Sene (Senior)
F - Mike Scott (Senior)
F - Joe Harris (Sophomore)
G - Sammy Zeglinski (Senior)
G - Jontel Evans (Sophomore)
There has been a lot of negativity around the UVA basketball program for so long that I think not many people realized that the Cavaliers ended up with a 7-9 record in the conference last year. That included winning four out of their last five conference games. And now there is a lot of optimism, with a majority of the team coming back this year.
Of course the key is forward Mike Scott. Scott was primed to have a monster year last year, but an injury early in the season forced him to sit the rest of the way. He was granted a medical redshirt and will be back this season. If he can be the double-double man that he has shown the promise he can be, that will be huge for this team.
The rest of the parts aren't bad. Last year's freshman class included some promising players, including Joe Harris, who averaged 10.4 points per game, and K.T. Harrell, who averaged 8 points per game. Jontel Evans isn't a big scorer but is a solid point guard for Coach Tony Bennett's offense.
The non-conference schedule sets up well for success. UVA doesn't have to hit the road until December 18th, when they have a date with Oregon. A road game later on against LSU is a chance to win against a struggling SEC program.
I think Coach Bennett has this team in a good spot. They are so frustrating to play against, because they slow the tempo down and force you to play their game. Here's why I don't think their ceiling is that high: their offense is structured to run the clock down and shoot a fair amount of outside shots. If they are shooting the ball well, they win games. But if they aren't making their 3s, they could put up an ugly offensive number in the 30s or 40s. I think UVA is bound to have some of those games, which could keep them from going 10-6 in the conference. They have a decent shot of making the NCAAs, though.
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| Mike Scott |
2010-2011 record: 16-15 (7-9 ACC)
Games against NCAA Tournament teams: 9
Best non-conference game: 12/18 at Oregon
Projected Starting Five:
C - Assane Sene (Senior)
F - Mike Scott (Senior)
F - Joe Harris (Sophomore)
G - Sammy Zeglinski (Senior)
G - Jontel Evans (Sophomore)
There has been a lot of negativity around the UVA basketball program for so long that I think not many people realized that the Cavaliers ended up with a 7-9 record in the conference last year. That included winning four out of their last five conference games. And now there is a lot of optimism, with a majority of the team coming back this year.
Of course the key is forward Mike Scott. Scott was primed to have a monster year last year, but an injury early in the season forced him to sit the rest of the way. He was granted a medical redshirt and will be back this season. If he can be the double-double man that he has shown the promise he can be, that will be huge for this team.
The rest of the parts aren't bad. Last year's freshman class included some promising players, including Joe Harris, who averaged 10.4 points per game, and K.T. Harrell, who averaged 8 points per game. Jontel Evans isn't a big scorer but is a solid point guard for Coach Tony Bennett's offense.
The non-conference schedule sets up well for success. UVA doesn't have to hit the road until December 18th, when they have a date with Oregon. A road game later on against LSU is a chance to win against a struggling SEC program.
I think Coach Bennett has this team in a good spot. They are so frustrating to play against, because they slow the tempo down and force you to play their game. Here's why I don't think their ceiling is that high: their offense is structured to run the clock down and shoot a fair amount of outside shots. If they are shooting the ball well, they win games. But if they aren't making their 3s, they could put up an ugly offensive number in the 30s or 40s. I think UVA is bound to have some of those games, which could keep them from going 10-6 in the conference. They have a decent shot of making the NCAAs, though.
Monday, November 07, 2011
Season Preview
6. NC State
2010-2011 record: 15-16 (5-11 ACC)
Games against NCAA Tournament teams: 10
Best non-conference game: 11/19 vs. Vanderbilt (in East Rutherford, NJ)
Projected Starting Five:
F - Richard Howell (Junior)
F - C.J. Leslie (Sophomore)
F - Scott Wood (Junior)
G - C.J. Williams (Senior)
G - Lorenzo Brown (Sophomore)
You probably heard the collective sigh of relief coming from NC State fans this spring as the school made a change at head coach. Sidney Lowe was an alum and tried his best, but just didn't cut it as the coach of the Wolfpack. He was able to recruit decent players, but didn't get them motivated to play at their best, and had disappointing year after disappointing year. Now Mark Gottfried is the head man at NC State, a coach who did some good things at Alabama. And he inherits some talent.
Perhaps no one was a better example of not playing to his potential than C.J. Leslie. He was touted as one of the best freshman in the ACC last year, but seemed to have trouble with focus at times. He ended up scoring 11 points per game, but shot 25% from 3-point land and 54% from the line. Leslie will have to be the main focus for the Wolfpack this year, with Tracy Smith gone.
Besides Leslie, there are other players with potential. I have always liked Richard Howell, who has played in a supporting role but will be able to step up into the starting lineup. And many people are high on Lorenzo Brown, who will hopefully provide some stability at a point guard spot that Javier Gonzalez did not provide the last few years. Scott Wood is a very capable shooter that can light you up very quickly.
NC State has some tests on their schedule. An early season game against Princeton is intriguing. They also face two top-10 teams in Vanderbilt and Syracuse between now and Christmas. I think NC State has the talent to make the NCAA Tournament. If Coach Gottfried can find a lineup combination that he likes and can get the most out of players like Leslie, the other teams in the ACC have enough question marks that they can finish in the top half of the conference. That will be a welcome change in Raleigh.
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| C.J. Leslie |
2010-2011 record: 15-16 (5-11 ACC)
Games against NCAA Tournament teams: 10
Best non-conference game: 11/19 vs. Vanderbilt (in East Rutherford, NJ)
Projected Starting Five:
F - Richard Howell (Junior)
F - C.J. Leslie (Sophomore)
F - Scott Wood (Junior)
G - C.J. Williams (Senior)
G - Lorenzo Brown (Sophomore)
You probably heard the collective sigh of relief coming from NC State fans this spring as the school made a change at head coach. Sidney Lowe was an alum and tried his best, but just didn't cut it as the coach of the Wolfpack. He was able to recruit decent players, but didn't get them motivated to play at their best, and had disappointing year after disappointing year. Now Mark Gottfried is the head man at NC State, a coach who did some good things at Alabama. And he inherits some talent.
Perhaps no one was a better example of not playing to his potential than C.J. Leslie. He was touted as one of the best freshman in the ACC last year, but seemed to have trouble with focus at times. He ended up scoring 11 points per game, but shot 25% from 3-point land and 54% from the line. Leslie will have to be the main focus for the Wolfpack this year, with Tracy Smith gone.
Besides Leslie, there are other players with potential. I have always liked Richard Howell, who has played in a supporting role but will be able to step up into the starting lineup. And many people are high on Lorenzo Brown, who will hopefully provide some stability at a point guard spot that Javier Gonzalez did not provide the last few years. Scott Wood is a very capable shooter that can light you up very quickly.
NC State has some tests on their schedule. An early season game against Princeton is intriguing. They also face two top-10 teams in Vanderbilt and Syracuse between now and Christmas. I think NC State has the talent to make the NCAA Tournament. If Coach Gottfried can find a lineup combination that he likes and can get the most out of players like Leslie, the other teams in the ACC have enough question marks that they can finish in the top half of the conference. That will be a welcome change in Raleigh.
Sunday, November 06, 2011
Season Preview
7. Virginia Tech
2010-2011 record: 22-12 (9-7 ACC)
Games against NCAA Tournament teams: 9
Best non-conference game: 12/4 vs. Kansas State
Projected Starting Five:
F - Cadarian Raines (Sophomore)
F - Victor Davila (Senior)
F - Dorian Finney-Smith (Freshman)
G - Dorenzo Hudson (Senior)
G - Erick Green (Junior)
You can divide the Seth Greenberg regime at Virginia Tech into two different eras. The first is the Dowdell/Gordon/Collins era. The second is the Delaney/Allen era. Take a look at how each four-year class has done:
Dowdell/Gordon/Collins: 67-56 (29-35 in the ACC)
1 NCAA berth, 1 NIT berth
Delaney/Allen: 87-50 (35-29 in the ACC)
4 NIT berths
This is the start of era #3, with the current freshman class. The Hokies have the chance to get off to a fresh start, putting behind them the disappointment of not making the NCAA Tournament the last couple years. Unfortunately, the year is already getting off to a bad start. J.T. Thompson suffered a season-ending injury in practice this week, the second straight year he will be out. And Erick Green has an Achilles injury that may sideline him for a couple weeks.
Green is the key player for Virginia Tech this year. He really stepped up his game in the second half of last year, and will be the emotional leader. He will be paired in the backcourt with Dorenzo Hudson. Hudson had a breakout year two seasons ago, but had a lingering injury that made him ineffective when he played last year. For the Hokies to be successful, Hudson has to recapture his offense from two seasons ago.
The other big key is Cadarian Raines. Raines has had injury problems since he got to Blacksburg, and really needs to stay healthy. He has to provide good minutes with Thompson out. I do expect the freshmen to provide an impact - they might not be great right away, but by the end of the year they will be counted on for a lot.
So what can we expect from this team? Expect some growing pains at first, especially with a difficult early season schedule. The likely home game against George Mason will be huge - if the Hokies can win that one, they will have a couple great tests at Madison Square Garden. I do expect the freshmen to gain confidence as the year goes on and the Hokies could roll to a high finish in the conference. But if any more injuries strike (I had them at 6 before the Thompson injury) and their depth goes away again, it could be a long year.
 |
| Erick Green |
2010-2011 record: 22-12 (9-7 ACC)
Games against NCAA Tournament teams: 9
Best non-conference game: 12/4 vs. Kansas State
Projected Starting Five:
F - Cadarian Raines (Sophomore)
F - Victor Davila (Senior)
F - Dorian Finney-Smith (Freshman)
G - Dorenzo Hudson (Senior)
G - Erick Green (Junior)
You can divide the Seth Greenberg regime at Virginia Tech into two different eras. The first is the Dowdell/Gordon/Collins era. The second is the Delaney/Allen era. Take a look at how each four-year class has done:
Dowdell/Gordon/Collins: 67-56 (29-35 in the ACC)
1 NCAA berth, 1 NIT berth
Delaney/Allen: 87-50 (35-29 in the ACC)
4 NIT berths
This is the start of era #3, with the current freshman class. The Hokies have the chance to get off to a fresh start, putting behind them the disappointment of not making the NCAA Tournament the last couple years. Unfortunately, the year is already getting off to a bad start. J.T. Thompson suffered a season-ending injury in practice this week, the second straight year he will be out. And Erick Green has an Achilles injury that may sideline him for a couple weeks.
Green is the key player for Virginia Tech this year. He really stepped up his game in the second half of last year, and will be the emotional leader. He will be paired in the backcourt with Dorenzo Hudson. Hudson had a breakout year two seasons ago, but had a lingering injury that made him ineffective when he played last year. For the Hokies to be successful, Hudson has to recapture his offense from two seasons ago.
The other big key is Cadarian Raines. Raines has had injury problems since he got to Blacksburg, and really needs to stay healthy. He has to provide good minutes with Thompson out. I do expect the freshmen to provide an impact - they might not be great right away, but by the end of the year they will be counted on for a lot.
So what can we expect from this team? Expect some growing pains at first, especially with a difficult early season schedule. The likely home game against George Mason will be huge - if the Hokies can win that one, they will have a couple great tests at Madison Square Garden. I do expect the freshmen to gain confidence as the year goes on and the Hokies could roll to a high finish in the conference. But if any more injuries strike (I had them at 6 before the Thompson injury) and their depth goes away again, it could be a long year.
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