Monday, December 17, 2012

Week Preview: 12/17-12/21

It was a pretty uneventful weekend in the ACC, with not many teams in action.  We did see one big upset, though, that may shift the balance of power in the league a bit.  Virginia Tech lost at home to Georgia Southern, 78-73.  The game actually wasn't as close as the final score indicated, either.  The Hokies really laid an egg in this one, and with the subsequent injury to Marshall Wood their stock has taken a bit of a hit.  We'll see how they can respond.

A couple other teams struggled in wins.  North Carolina barely got by East Carolina at home, giving up 87 points to the Pirates.  And Boston College was narrowly able to escape another embarrassing loss, defeating New Hampshire at home in overtime.  There are a few intriguing games this week before teams go on a holiday break.  Here are the highlights:


Tuesday:

Miami at UCF (7:00 p.m., FSN)
The Hurricanes have been playing really good basketball lately, but they have a tough road game ahead.  UCF has some athletic players and has been known in recent years to play very well in the non-conference.  I expect Miami to win this one, but don't be surprised if UCF gives them a fight.

Stanford at N.C. State (9:00 p.m., ESPN2)
This is a tough cross-country road game for Stanford, returning the favor after N.C. State went out to Palo Alto last year.  The Cardinal have not done much to write home about so far.  They are 7-3 with losses to Belmont, Missouri and Minnesota.  Their best win is at a neutral site against Northern Iowa.  I expect the Wolfpack to win by about 10.

Wednesday:

Clemson at Coastal Carolina (7:00 p.m.)
The Tigers need to be careful in this one.  They lost to Coastal last year at home.  This is the type of game that Coach Brad Brownell's team really needs to win.  They have to prove that they can play well on the road, something they did not do last year.  Coastal has not been very good so far, with only one win over a Division 1 school.

North Carolina at Texas (9:00 p.m., ESPN2)
This should be a good battle between two teams that have disappointed their fan bases so far.  North Carolina failed in their last road game, against then #1 Indiana.  They can get the Longhorns, though.  Texas has a horrible loss to Chaminade on their record, plus losses to USC, Georgetown and UCLA.

Thursday, December 13, 2012

ACC Progress Report

We're about a month into the season, and the schedule is pretty light with schools in final exams.  So it's a good time to take stock of where the teams are at this point.  I'm going to start at the top of the standings and work my way down.

Duke (9-0)

A lot of people weren't very high on Duke coming into the year, saying they didn't have any stars.  That may be true, although Mason Plumlee is making the case that he is one.  But Duke has a very good case to be the #1 team in the country.  They have already beaten Louisville, Kentucky, Ohio State, VCU, Temple and Minnesota.  That's a pretty good schedule.  They are doing it with Plumlee averaging a double-double and a much improved Quinn Cook at the point.  Hard to find much wrong with Duke right now.


Maryland (9-1)

A lot of people are high on the Terps, and for good reason.  They have a lot of solid players on their team, especially Alex Len and Dez Wells.  They have the potential to be a really good team.  So far, there isn't a ton to point to in terms of results.  Their one loss to Kentucky does not look as good now as it did at the time.  Their best wins are on the road at Northwestern and at a neutral site against George Mason.  Right now they are in the middle of an eight game homestand, so their record will continue to improve.


Virginia Tech (8-1)

The Hokies are probably the surprise team of the league right now, with an explosive start.  Coach James Johnson's offense has been terrific, as the Hokies have topped 80 points in six of their first nine games.  Their wins are a little more impressive than Maryland, although they both came at home (Iowa and Oklahoma State).  They really missed a big opportunity losing to West Virginia on the road by one last week.  But they should put together a few more wins before a tough road game at BYU.


Miami (5-1)

We haven't seen many games from Miami yet, because they are playing in the Diamond Head Classic the last week of December.  They seem to be trending up, with recent wins against Michigan State and at UMass.  Miami does have that ugly loss at Florida Gulf Coast that may haunt them come Selection Sunday.  But other than that they have shown the promise that many people thought might come out this year.


Virginia (8-2)

Virginia has been an interesting team.  They have two losses early in the season to teams from the CAA: George Mason and Delaware.  They also have one of the most impressive wins of the year from a team not named Duke: a road win at Wisconsin.  That's the only game most people have probably seen this year, as they haven't been on TV much.  The Cavaliers do have a solid win at home over Tennessee, and the remaining non-conference schedule is not difficult.


North Carolina (7-2)

There is some unrest in Chapel Hill as the Tar Heels have not looked that sharp to start the season.  Their two losses are by double digits, one to #1 Indiana on the road and the other a Maui loss to Butler.  It's hard to find a good win on their resume, maybe on the road at Long Beach State.  But we should find out more about these young Tar Heels soon.  They have games against Texas and UNLV in the next two weeks.


N.C. State (6-2)

It's a little odd to see N.C. State seventh in the standings.  And as frustrated as some people have been with the Wolfpack, they have only played one really bad game.  That was on national TV to Oklahoma State.  Their other loss was at Michigan, nothing to be ashamed of.  And they have bounced back since for wins against UConn and Cleveland State.  N.C. State has some terrific freshmen who will only get better as the season goes on.  A home game against Stanford is the only real test in the next five.


Georgia Tech (6-2)

The Yellow Jackets have come along pretty well so far this year.  They have a good win against St. Mary's and showed well on the road at Illinois until the final minutes.  Their other loss was to Cal.  They haven't exactly been an offensive powerhouse, only topping 65 points twice.  But they are strong defensively.  We won't find out much about Georgia Tech until they start conference play.  Their next four games should pose no problems.


Clemson (5-3)

Clemson has been a mixed bag.  They have had some bad performances, especially a blowout home loss to Purdue.  But they have also played well, like in their win over rival South Carolina.  This team is still trying to find their go-to player, and problems with Milton Jennings have not helped.  Like Georgia Tech, we probably won't find out how good the Tigers are until conference play starts.


Florida State (5-4)

Now we start getting to the really disappointing teams.  Florida State is right at the top.  It's really shocking that they have already lost four home games, including to South Alabama and Mercer.  The only time they have really played well was at the Coaches vs. Cancer tournament, where they beat BYU and St. Joseph's.  Florida State still has to go to Charlotte and Auburn, so it's not inconceivable that they could have six non-conference losses.


Wake Forest (4-5)

Wake is just a mess.  They had a terrible performance at home against Nebraska, and have lost to UConn, Iona, Richmond and Seton Hall.  Their best win is against Mercer.  I read today that Coach Jeff Bzdelik has stopped taking live questions on his call-in show, obviously wanting to avoid criticism.  Wake has got to get more from players not named C.J. Harris or Travis McKie.


Boston College (4-5)

No one expected much of BC this year, and they are meeting those expectations.  Their road win at Penn State appears to be something of a fluke.  The Eagles have lost to Baylor, Dayton, Charleston, Bryant and Harvard.  I don't see it getting much better any time soon.  BC has four home games against teams they should beat (except maybe Providence), and they need wins.

Friday, December 07, 2012

Weekend Preview: 12/8-12/9

It was a relatively light schedule during the week, but things ramp up for the weekend.  Ten games are on the slate for Saturday.  First, let's look back.  The biggest story was probably the continued struggles of Florida State.  They got totally outclassed at home against their rival, Florida.  FSU has now lost four games at home this year, which is really shocking.  The only other ACC team to lose this week was BC, which got blitzed at home by Harvard.  Harvard does not have the same quality of team they did last year, and BC should not be losing to them by double digits.

On the positive side, N.C. State got a nice win on a neutral court against UConn.  The Wolfpack were down big early, but fought back and pulled out their best win to date.  Georgia Tech got a good win over their rival Georgia at home, and Virginia also picked up a home win against a power conference team in offensively-challenged Tennessee.

Now to the weekend.  Here are the best games:

Saturday:

Duke vs. Temple (3:15 p.m., ESPN) - This game is being played in East Rutherford, New Jersey.  The New York/New Jersey area has been a great place for Duke over the years.  Temple was able to beat the Blue Devils last year, but that game was in Philly.  Duke has too many weapons to let the same thing happen a second time.

Virginia Tech at West Virginia (4:00 p.m., ESPN2) - Last week was a huge win for Coach James Johnson and the Hokies over Oklahoma State.  But this is a whole different animal.  The only road game the Hokies have played so far was at UNC Greensboro.  West Virginia probably has their worst team in at least five years, but it will be very tough to win in Morgantown.

Seton Hall at Wake Forest (7:00 p.m.) - Wake needs to prove they can beat a quality team, especially at home.  Right now their best win is against Mercer. Seton Hall is pretty unproven.  They have lost their only two games against good competition.  Wake can't pull another double digit loss like they did in the Nebraska game.

Arizona at Clemson (8:00 p.m., ESPN2) - Clemson is 5-2 but they have looked vulnerable at times.  They will really have to be on their A game to beat Arizona.  The Wildcats are ranked #8 in the country.  They haven't played the most strenuous competition, but they have more talent than Clemson.

Monday, December 03, 2012

Weekend Review

It was a pretty good weekend for the ACC, with one notable exception.  We'll get to that in a minute.  First, the positive.  I was in Blacksburg, where Virginia Tech turned in a great performance at home against Oklahoma State.  It felt like a big time battle between two good teams.  The Hokies have definitely started out better than anyone expected.  The second biggest win was probably Miami, taking out UMass on the road, backing up their win over Michigan State.  Clemson and Maryland both got decent wins on Sunday, over South Carolina and George Mason, respectively.

Now to the negative.  Florida State lost at home to Mercer, their second bad home loss this year.  Keep in mind that Mercer lost to Wake Forest earlier this year.  Speaking of Wake, they lost another game that they really needed to win.  This one was at least close, a two point loss at Richmond.  If you take a look at the ACC, 8 of the 12 teams already have at least two losses.  Compare that to the other power leagues:

Big Ten - 6 of 12
Big East - 8 of 15
Big 12 - 5 of 10
Pac 12 - 7 of 12
SEC - 8 of 14

Now this isn't a foolproof barometer of how the conferences are doing, because everybody's schedule is different.  But it does give you some indication of how each league looks so far.

The schedule this week is pretty light - only 7 of the 12 ACC teams are playing during the week.  There are a few good games, including Florida at Florida State, Tennessee at Virginia and N.C. State vs. UConn (in New York).  I think this is a big week for both Florida State and N.C. State, they need wins to right the ship a bit.