Is the ACC Too Top Heavy?
I took a look before at the turnover in coaches when trying to explain why the ACC is down this year (and the last few years). One other theory that may be playing into it is the top of the league. Duke and UNC are two of the most historic and established programs in the country. They have been dominant throughout the last several decades. And that certainly may be hurting the league. Years like this one show how much they are above everyone else, making it very hard to earn a marquee win. So I ran some numbers, looking at each team's record against Duke and UNC since the league expanded to 12. That means the past six seasons, including ACC Tournament games. You may be surprised who has the best record against the two big boys.
Georgia Tech 7-12 37%
Maryland 7-15 32%
Virginia Tech 5-14 26%
Boston College 5-15 25%
Florida State 5-15 25%
Wake Forest 4-13 24%
Virginia 3-15 17%
Clemson 3-16 16%
NC State 3-19 14%
Miami 2-17 11%
This adds up to a combined record of 44-151. Keep in mind that 12 of those 44 wins came to UNC in one season, when they went 5-11 in conference and lost in the first round of the ACC Tournament.
Some of these records are pretty surprising. Certainly you wouldn't have thought Georgia Tech had the best record. But they actually have played UNC very well in the last three seasons. Clemson's record is a surprise to me, considering how much success they have had in the last five years. Of course, they do have that record of never winning in Chapel Hill, which doesn't help.
So what does this mean? Obviously, it means that two teams are completely dominating one conference. But when it comes to the NCAA Tournament, it means this: one of the biggest factors in determining whether you get a bid is who you've beaten. There really is no opportunity to get a win that will raise eyebrows in the ACC unless you beat Duke and UNC. And they have made beating them very difficult.
In other conferences, you see a little more rotation in the top programs, letting other teams into the NCAA Tournament. The Pac 10 was dominated by UCLA a few years ago. Not anymore. Kentucky has been dominant in some years in the SEC and much less so in others. Even in the Big East, powers like Syracuse, UConn and Pitt have seasons in which they lose eight games in conference.
So until the ACC can have a program emerge that can consistently beat Duke and UNC, it will remain a league of haves and have-nots. That makes 2 haves and 10 have-nots. Of course, expansion will change all this. But I'll worry about that another time.
Monday, December 26, 2011
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
Christmas Week Preview
Most teams have the Christmas holiday off, but there are some intriguing games before the year ends. Let's start with the Diamond Head Classic. Clemson travels to Hawaii with a big opportunity to turn their season around. They have been pretty disappointing thus far, and will need to step up their game if they are going to knock off some decent opponents. On Thursday Clemson takes on UTEP, a team out of Conference USA that has not been good thus far. If they win that one, their next game comes Friday against the winner of Kansas State and Southern Illinois (likely Kansas State). The best team on the other side of the bracket is Xavier, which is reeling a bit from suspensions coming out of that brawl.
Texas takes on UNC tonight in a matchup that last year Texas won. The Heels are significantly better than the Longhorns, and should win this one without much trouble.
Florida State has its annual game against rival Florida Thursday night in Gainesville. Many thought the Seminoles were a lock for the NCAA Tournament going into the year, but they haven't done anything to show that they deserve it. After losing three games in a row, they have won three straight against underwhelming competition. This game will be a much bigger challenge. After Thursday, the games don't really start cranking back up until December 29.
A couple of other thoughts:
Virginia is starting to look more and more like the third best team in the conference - at least right now. They had a solid road win at Oregon and only have a rather head-scratching loss against TCU on the record. Every team besides Duke and UNC has question marks, leaving the door open for teams like Virginia to try and snag an NCAA Tournament berth. Teams like Virginia Tech, NC State and Miami have shown flashes but whether they can produce when the competition steps up in ACC play is still a big question.
Most teams have the Christmas holiday off, but there are some intriguing games before the year ends. Let's start with the Diamond Head Classic. Clemson travels to Hawaii with a big opportunity to turn their season around. They have been pretty disappointing thus far, and will need to step up their game if they are going to knock off some decent opponents. On Thursday Clemson takes on UTEP, a team out of Conference USA that has not been good thus far. If they win that one, their next game comes Friday against the winner of Kansas State and Southern Illinois (likely Kansas State). The best team on the other side of the bracket is Xavier, which is reeling a bit from suspensions coming out of that brawl.
Texas takes on UNC tonight in a matchup that last year Texas won. The Heels are significantly better than the Longhorns, and should win this one without much trouble.
Florida State has its annual game against rival Florida Thursday night in Gainesville. Many thought the Seminoles were a lock for the NCAA Tournament going into the year, but they haven't done anything to show that they deserve it. After losing three games in a row, they have won three straight against underwhelming competition. This game will be a much bigger challenge. After Thursday, the games don't really start cranking back up until December 29.
A couple of other thoughts:
Virginia is starting to look more and more like the third best team in the conference - at least right now. They had a solid road win at Oregon and only have a rather head-scratching loss against TCU on the record. Every team besides Duke and UNC has question marks, leaving the door open for teams like Virginia to try and snag an NCAA Tournament berth. Teams like Virginia Tech, NC State and Miami have shown flashes but whether they can produce when the competition steps up in ACC play is still a big question.
Sunday, December 18, 2011
Thoughts on Saturday's Games
The schedule is pretty light this time of year, but there were a couple intriguing games on Saturday's schedule in the ACC. The two most high profile games were marked by poor defense. Let's start in Raleigh, where NC State played some inspired basketball but still lost at home to Syracuse by 16. NC State came out on fire, hitting all their shots and building a lead, but Syracuse went on a huge run in the first half that was back-breaking. At times, NC State did a great job of getting out in transition and getting to the basket against the Syracuse zone. But like the Indiana game, their defense was their downfall, giving up 88 points.
Miami certainly has some weapons on offense, as they showed in their two overtime win against Florida Atlantic yesterday. Reggie Johnson returned and proved that he can be a force down low. However, he looks really overweight to me and a bit slow. Teams would be wise to force him to come out to the free throw line and guard people, taking advantage of his lack of speed. Coach Larranaga has to be upset by the lack of defense Miami played. Florida Atlantic (coached by Mike Jarvis) had way too many easy shots down the stretch. The two teams combined to shoot 29 for 49 from 3! Miami can be a top half team in the ACC with their talent, but they need to start playing some D to make up for the days when their shooters aren't hitting.
The rest of the day was pretty light. Virginia Tech got a solid 25 point win over Campbell. Tech fans have to be pretty happy with the play of their four freshmen, who yesterday combined for 27 points. Clemson got a much needed win, albeit over a bad Winthrop team. And UNC got an easy win against an over-matched Appalachian State.
There is one interesting game on the schedule for Sunday. UVA travels west to take on Oregon. The Ducks have been near the bottom of the Pac 10 (or 12) the past couple years but should be right in the middle of that conference this year. This is part of a two game trip for UVA in which they will also take on Seattle.
The schedule is pretty light this time of year, but there were a couple intriguing games on Saturday's schedule in the ACC. The two most high profile games were marked by poor defense. Let's start in Raleigh, where NC State played some inspired basketball but still lost at home to Syracuse by 16. NC State came out on fire, hitting all their shots and building a lead, but Syracuse went on a huge run in the first half that was back-breaking. At times, NC State did a great job of getting out in transition and getting to the basket against the Syracuse zone. But like the Indiana game, their defense was their downfall, giving up 88 points.
Miami certainly has some weapons on offense, as they showed in their two overtime win against Florida Atlantic yesterday. Reggie Johnson returned and proved that he can be a force down low. However, he looks really overweight to me and a bit slow. Teams would be wise to force him to come out to the free throw line and guard people, taking advantage of his lack of speed. Coach Larranaga has to be upset by the lack of defense Miami played. Florida Atlantic (coached by Mike Jarvis) had way too many easy shots down the stretch. The two teams combined to shoot 29 for 49 from 3! Miami can be a top half team in the ACC with their talent, but they need to start playing some D to make up for the days when their shooters aren't hitting.
The rest of the day was pretty light. Virginia Tech got a solid 25 point win over Campbell. Tech fans have to be pretty happy with the play of their four freshmen, who yesterday combined for 27 points. Clemson got a much needed win, albeit over a bad Winthrop team. And UNC got an easy win against an over-matched Appalachian State.
There is one interesting game on the schedule for Sunday. UVA travels west to take on Oregon. The Ducks have been near the bottom of the Pac 10 (or 12) the past couple years but should be right in the middle of that conference this year. This is part of a two game trip for UVA in which they will also take on Seattle.
Monday, December 12, 2011
Why is the ACC Down?
As someone who grew up watching ACC basketball, it is hard to watch the league struggle to get respect as it has in recent years. This year has started off very poorly, and as I said before once you get into conference play there aren't many opportunities to prove that your conference is strong. So that begs the question: why is the ACC so down? One of the more popular theories is that there has been a lot of coaching turnover. So I want to take a look at the teams that have replaced their coaches in the last two years.
Before I start, I acknowledge that for some of these coaches there really isn't a very large sample size. They haven't had a chance to prove themselves. Plus, coaching isn't everything. Wins and losses are also determined by talent, injuries, schedule, etc. But let's see how these teams shake up.
Boston College
BC replaced Al Skinner before the 2010-2011 season with Steve Donahue. Here's how Skinner did in his last two seasons compared with Donahue's current tenure:
Al Skinner - 37-28 (15-17 ACC) *NCAA bid in 2008-2009
Steve Donahue - 23-20 (9-7 ACC)
Clemson
Oliver Purnell bolted for DePaul after the 2009-2010 season, replaced by Brad Brownell. Here are their numbers:
Oliver Purnell - 44-20 (18-14 ACC) *NCAA bid in both seasons
Brad Brownell - 26-16 (9-7 ACC) *NCAA bid in 2010-2011
As an added number, Purnell in his stint at DePaul is 13-27.
Wake Forest
Jeff Bzdelik took over as coach at Wake after Dino Gaudio was shown the door. I think you'll see the most dramatic numbers here:
Dino Gaudio - 44-18 (20-12 ACC) *NCAA bid in both seasons
Jeff Bzdelik - 14-28 (1-15 ACC)
In each of these three cases, the current coach has a worse winning percentage than the coach they replaced. At Wake and BC, the previous coaches were fired. Bad moves? Maybe. These are three programs that have been to NCAA Tournaments in recent years but have now fallen on hard times, which affects that public perception.
Ok now let's take a quick look at first year coaches. Their numbers will most certainly be incomplete at this point, but it's worth looking at.
Georgia Tech
Paul Hewitt is now the coach at George Mason. Brian Gregory came over from Dayton. Again, these stats for the old coaches are the past two seasons.
Paul Hewitt - 36-31 (12-20 ACC) *NCAA bid in 2009-2010
Brian Gregory - 6-4
Maryland
Gary Williams retired after a long time as the Terps head coach. Mark Turgeon came over from Texas A&M.
Gary Williams - 43-23 (20-12 ACC) *NCAA bid in 2009-2010
Mark Turgeon - 5-3
Miami
Jim Larranaga is the head coach, coming over from George Mason. He replaces Frank Haith, who is doing quite well so far at Missouri.
Frank Haith - 41-28 (10-22 ACC)
Jim Larranaga - 5-4
Look at those numbers for Haith! Miami feasted on less than stellar non-conference competition and then crumbled in the ACC the last two years.
NC State
Mark Gottfried is the new head coach, replacing Sidney Lowe, who isn't going to have very good numbers on here.
Sidney Lowe - 35-32 (10-22 ACC)
Mark Gottfried - 6-3
So what does all this mean? It means a lot of teams are starting from scratch. When new coaches come in, there are often players transferring out, and a lot of turnover. It takes a while for coaches to get to recruit their own players and perform. That doesn't necessarily mean things will get better in the next year or two: of the first-year coaches the only hire that most people agree is an improvement is Gottfried at NC State. New doesn't necessarily mean better. You do have to question some of the decisions to replace coaches and wonder if the league would be better off if people like Gaudio and Skinner had stayed.
As someone who grew up watching ACC basketball, it is hard to watch the league struggle to get respect as it has in recent years. This year has started off very poorly, and as I said before once you get into conference play there aren't many opportunities to prove that your conference is strong. So that begs the question: why is the ACC so down? One of the more popular theories is that there has been a lot of coaching turnover. So I want to take a look at the teams that have replaced their coaches in the last two years.
Before I start, I acknowledge that for some of these coaches there really isn't a very large sample size. They haven't had a chance to prove themselves. Plus, coaching isn't everything. Wins and losses are also determined by talent, injuries, schedule, etc. But let's see how these teams shake up.
BC replaced Al Skinner before the 2010-2011 season with Steve Donahue. Here's how Skinner did in his last two seasons compared with Donahue's current tenure:
Al Skinner - 37-28 (15-17 ACC) *NCAA bid in 2008-2009
Steve Donahue - 23-20 (9-7 ACC)
Clemson
Oliver Purnell bolted for DePaul after the 2009-2010 season, replaced by Brad Brownell. Here are their numbers:
Oliver Purnell - 44-20 (18-14 ACC) *NCAA bid in both seasons
Brad Brownell - 26-16 (9-7 ACC) *NCAA bid in 2010-2011
As an added number, Purnell in his stint at DePaul is 13-27.
Wake Forest
Jeff Bzdelik took over as coach at Wake after Dino Gaudio was shown the door. I think you'll see the most dramatic numbers here:
Dino Gaudio - 44-18 (20-12 ACC) *NCAA bid in both seasons
Jeff Bzdelik - 14-28 (1-15 ACC)
In each of these three cases, the current coach has a worse winning percentage than the coach they replaced. At Wake and BC, the previous coaches were fired. Bad moves? Maybe. These are three programs that have been to NCAA Tournaments in recent years but have now fallen on hard times, which affects that public perception.
Ok now let's take a quick look at first year coaches. Their numbers will most certainly be incomplete at this point, but it's worth looking at.
Georgia Tech
Paul Hewitt is now the coach at George Mason. Brian Gregory came over from Dayton. Again, these stats for the old coaches are the past two seasons.
Paul Hewitt - 36-31 (12-20 ACC) *NCAA bid in 2009-2010
Brian Gregory - 6-4
Maryland
Gary Williams retired after a long time as the Terps head coach. Mark Turgeon came over from Texas A&M.
Gary Williams - 43-23 (20-12 ACC) *NCAA bid in 2009-2010
Mark Turgeon - 5-3
Miami
Jim Larranaga is the head coach, coming over from George Mason. He replaces Frank Haith, who is doing quite well so far at Missouri.
Frank Haith - 41-28 (10-22 ACC)
Jim Larranaga - 5-4
Look at those numbers for Haith! Miami feasted on less than stellar non-conference competition and then crumbled in the ACC the last two years.
NC State
Mark Gottfried is the new head coach, replacing Sidney Lowe, who isn't going to have very good numbers on here.
Sidney Lowe - 35-32 (10-22 ACC)
Mark Gottfried - 6-3
So what does all this mean? It means a lot of teams are starting from scratch. When new coaches come in, there are often players transferring out, and a lot of turnover. It takes a while for coaches to get to recruit their own players and perform. That doesn't necessarily mean things will get better in the next year or two: of the first-year coaches the only hire that most people agree is an improvement is Gottfried at NC State. New doesn't necessarily mean better. You do have to question some of the decisions to replace coaches and wonder if the league would be better off if people like Gaudio and Skinner had stayed.
Friday, December 09, 2011
Weekend Update
Relatively speaking, it hasn't been a bad week for the ACC. No disastrous losses. In fact, just two teams lost conference games. Boston College lost on the road to Providence (no surprise there - BC is still terrible). And Miami really took it on the chin against Memphis. They were right there at halftime, but ended up losing by 17. Memphis is a very solid team, but Miami can't feel good about that performance.
Georgia Tech got its most solid win of the year, on the road over rival Georgia. Georgia isn't in the top half of the SEC, but considering how Georgia Tech has been playing, to beat them by 12 points has got to feel good. Virginia Tech got a much needed win over Rhode Island. The Rams have only won one game all year, but they were at home, and a tough opponent. Maryland won against Mt. St. Mary's, but only by three points. That is a bit of a head scratcher. It's starting to look like they are so reliant on Terrell Stoglin, that if he has a bad game they are toast.
There are a few interesting matchups this weekend. Here is a look ahead:
Duke vs. Washington (Saturday, 12 p.m.)
Duke is taking on Washington at Madison Square Garden, which seems to be their second home. They have played so well in the world's most famous arena. The Huskies have some talent but thus far this year haven't played as well as they are capable of.
Clemson at Arizona (Saturday, 4 p.m.)
Clemson has been a really big disappointment in my opinion, and it's not going to get any easier in this game. Arizona no longer has Derrick Williams but they will be a force in the Pac-12.
Miami at West Virginia (Saturday, 7 p.m.)
This is a game that Miami could actually steal. West Virginia is coming off a two overtime win over Kansas State. And the Mountaineers aren't the same team they have been in previous years.
Wake Forest at Seton Hall (Saturday, 8 p.m.)
It's actually conceivable that Wake could end up winning two road games against BCS conference teams in two weeks. Seton Hall is not a very good team. Wake of course isn't either but the Deacs are starting to show a few signs of life.
Relatively speaking, it hasn't been a bad week for the ACC. No disastrous losses. In fact, just two teams lost conference games. Boston College lost on the road to Providence (no surprise there - BC is still terrible). And Miami really took it on the chin against Memphis. They were right there at halftime, but ended up losing by 17. Memphis is a very solid team, but Miami can't feel good about that performance.
Georgia Tech got its most solid win of the year, on the road over rival Georgia. Georgia isn't in the top half of the SEC, but considering how Georgia Tech has been playing, to beat them by 12 points has got to feel good. Virginia Tech got a much needed win over Rhode Island. The Rams have only won one game all year, but they were at home, and a tough opponent. Maryland won against Mt. St. Mary's, but only by three points. That is a bit of a head scratcher. It's starting to look like they are so reliant on Terrell Stoglin, that if he has a bad game they are toast.
There are a few interesting matchups this weekend. Here is a look ahead:
Duke vs. Washington (Saturday, 12 p.m.)
Duke is taking on Washington at Madison Square Garden, which seems to be their second home. They have played so well in the world's most famous arena. The Huskies have some talent but thus far this year haven't played as well as they are capable of.
Clemson at Arizona (Saturday, 4 p.m.)
Clemson has been a really big disappointment in my opinion, and it's not going to get any easier in this game. Arizona no longer has Derrick Williams but they will be a force in the Pac-12.
Miami at West Virginia (Saturday, 7 p.m.)
This is a game that Miami could actually steal. West Virginia is coming off a two overtime win over Kansas State. And the Mountaineers aren't the same team they have been in previous years.
Wake Forest at Seton Hall (Saturday, 8 p.m.)
It's actually conceivable that Wake could end up winning two road games against BCS conference teams in two weeks. Seton Hall is not a very good team. Wake of course isn't either but the Deacs are starting to show a few signs of life.
Monday, December 05, 2011
Non-Conference Failures
As the days go on, the ACC isn't doing anything to improve its reputation. After struggling mightily in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, there were a series of frustrating losses in non-conference games this weekend. There are just too many teams right now that are not living up to ACC standards. I said in my previous post that I thought the ACC was getting four teams into the NCAA Tournament. The way it's looking now, that number might go to three.
Let's start with the best game of the weekend, UNC at Kentucky. This isn't a bad loss at all for UNC. In fact, they have to feel good about how they played. They got good contributions from players like Reggie Bullock and PJ Hairston, and had a very good chance to win at the end.
Also on Saturday, Wake came back down to earth with a home loss to Richmond. The Spiders jumped out in front early and were actually in front by 23 before Wake came back to make it a game. Boston College suffered another horrible loss, by 14 at home to Boston University. They are now 2-6 on the year and may not win three more games the whole season. Georgia Tech also had a bad loss, falling to Tulane by five. Tulane is 9-0 this season, but against an extremely soft schedule.
Sunday wasn't much better. Clemson continues to struggle in the early season, falling to rival South Carolina. South Carolina may be the worst team in the SEC. Clemson had a chance to tie with three free throws late in the game, but Tanner Smith missed one and the game was pretty much over. NC State had another late letdown. They weren't favored to win on the road against Stanford, but had the game pretty much in control and were not able to hang on. Virginia Tech also had a tough loss, at home to Kansas State. They played well in the first half and had a six point lead at halftime. But the shots wouldn't fall in the second half and Kansas State was able to put together a run and hold on.
The only ACC team to win on Sunday was Maryland, beating Notre Dame in Washington, DC. This may look like a good win, as Notre Dame was a very good team last year. But the Irish lost a lot off their team this year, and their best player, Tim Abromaitis, is out for the season. Nevertheless, this is a confidence boost for Maryland, and Terrell Stoglin, who had 31 points, continues to be the star for the Terps.
So where does that leave us? Right now Duke and Virginia are the only teams with just one loss. UNC and Miami are the only teams with two losses. You'd have to think that the damage has already been done in terms of the national consciousness. It's going to be hard for the ACC to earn more respect, especially once conference play starts. There aren't many chances for that this week, with a lack of exciting matchups. Among the best games during the week:
Memphis at Miami (Tuesday)
Georgia Tech at Georgia (Wednesday)
Virginia Tech at Rhode Island (Wednesday)
Boston College at Providence (Thursday)
As the days go on, the ACC isn't doing anything to improve its reputation. After struggling mightily in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, there were a series of frustrating losses in non-conference games this weekend. There are just too many teams right now that are not living up to ACC standards. I said in my previous post that I thought the ACC was getting four teams into the NCAA Tournament. The way it's looking now, that number might go to three.
Let's start with the best game of the weekend, UNC at Kentucky. This isn't a bad loss at all for UNC. In fact, they have to feel good about how they played. They got good contributions from players like Reggie Bullock and PJ Hairston, and had a very good chance to win at the end.
Also on Saturday, Wake came back down to earth with a home loss to Richmond. The Spiders jumped out in front early and were actually in front by 23 before Wake came back to make it a game. Boston College suffered another horrible loss, by 14 at home to Boston University. They are now 2-6 on the year and may not win three more games the whole season. Georgia Tech also had a bad loss, falling to Tulane by five. Tulane is 9-0 this season, but against an extremely soft schedule.
Sunday wasn't much better. Clemson continues to struggle in the early season, falling to rival South Carolina. South Carolina may be the worst team in the SEC. Clemson had a chance to tie with three free throws late in the game, but Tanner Smith missed one and the game was pretty much over. NC State had another late letdown. They weren't favored to win on the road against Stanford, but had the game pretty much in control and were not able to hang on. Virginia Tech also had a tough loss, at home to Kansas State. They played well in the first half and had a six point lead at halftime. But the shots wouldn't fall in the second half and Kansas State was able to put together a run and hold on.
The only ACC team to win on Sunday was Maryland, beating Notre Dame in Washington, DC. This may look like a good win, as Notre Dame was a very good team last year. But the Irish lost a lot off their team this year, and their best player, Tim Abromaitis, is out for the season. Nevertheless, this is a confidence boost for Maryland, and Terrell Stoglin, who had 31 points, continues to be the star for the Terps.
So where does that leave us? Right now Duke and Virginia are the only teams with just one loss. UNC and Miami are the only teams with two losses. You'd have to think that the damage has already been done in terms of the national consciousness. It's going to be hard for the ACC to earn more respect, especially once conference play starts. There aren't many chances for that this week, with a lack of exciting matchups. Among the best games during the week:
Memphis at Miami (Tuesday)
Georgia Tech at Georgia (Wednesday)
Virginia Tech at Rhode Island (Wednesday)
Boston College at Providence (Thursday)
Thursday, December 01, 2011
ACC/Big Ten Challenge Thoughts
It wasn't the best of weeks for the ACC. The Big Ten had its best ever success in the challenge, winning 8-4. Out of the four wins by the ACC, one was bottom-feeder Wake Forest. A lot of other teams were not able to rise to the challenge (no pun intended).
The most impressive win belongs to Ohio State. The Buckeyes came ready to play and thoroughly outclassed Duke. That Ohio State won was not a surprise - but the margin of victory definitely raised some eyebrows. You might not see Ohio State play that well again this year. On the other side, I don't think Duke has a lot to be worried about. They have played a very difficult schedule and have only this one loss. They do need to get more consistent play from Seth Curry, though. The backcourt can't be all Austin Rivers.
The best win for the ACC is probably Virginia beating Michigan. The Wolverines are a top 15 team that has played well so far this year. Virginia certainly has potential, and if they can get continue to get big contributions from Mike Scott they will be a force in the ACC. I think the most disappointing loss belongs to NC State. The Wolfpack have much more reason for optimism this year. Even though Indiana is much improved, though, NC State were up late in the second half only to see the Hoosiers go on a roll. The defense really failed the Wolfpack.
I have to give credit to Wake Forest. This is definitely the best win in the two year tenure of Jeff Bzdelik. I have been pretty hard on Bzdelik, but if he can get his team to finish better than 11th in the ACC this year I have to admit that he's doing a decent job.
After watching Virginia Tech's game against Minnesota last night, I wanted to say a few things about expectations. A lot of teams' fans are very concerned with the NCAA Tournament at this point in the season, thinking that one game here or there is a make-or-break game. The reality is that it's very tough to get to the Big Dance - that's part of what makes it so special. Based on how they performed this week and the perception of the league as a whole, I would guess that the ACC would get four teams in this year (just like last year). You know that Duke and Carolina will get in. Florida State, despite their early struggles, should get in. That leaves one spot for Virginia, Miami, Clemson, Virginia Tech and NC State.
It's pointless to get too hung up over one loss in November. If you make the NCAA Tournament, you will have earned it. It will likely require a 10-6 conference record. If you are a team like Virginia Tech, with a lot of young players, it's unlikely that this is the year to break the drought. So I would say to fans to just enjoy the development of the team and not waste too much energy worrying about that bubble.
It wasn't the best of weeks for the ACC. The Big Ten had its best ever success in the challenge, winning 8-4. Out of the four wins by the ACC, one was bottom-feeder Wake Forest. A lot of other teams were not able to rise to the challenge (no pun intended).
The most impressive win belongs to Ohio State. The Buckeyes came ready to play and thoroughly outclassed Duke. That Ohio State won was not a surprise - but the margin of victory definitely raised some eyebrows. You might not see Ohio State play that well again this year. On the other side, I don't think Duke has a lot to be worried about. They have played a very difficult schedule and have only this one loss. They do need to get more consistent play from Seth Curry, though. The backcourt can't be all Austin Rivers.
The best win for the ACC is probably Virginia beating Michigan. The Wolverines are a top 15 team that has played well so far this year. Virginia certainly has potential, and if they can get continue to get big contributions from Mike Scott they will be a force in the ACC. I think the most disappointing loss belongs to NC State. The Wolfpack have much more reason for optimism this year. Even though Indiana is much improved, though, NC State were up late in the second half only to see the Hoosiers go on a roll. The defense really failed the Wolfpack.
I have to give credit to Wake Forest. This is definitely the best win in the two year tenure of Jeff Bzdelik. I have been pretty hard on Bzdelik, but if he can get his team to finish better than 11th in the ACC this year I have to admit that he's doing a decent job.
After watching Virginia Tech's game against Minnesota last night, I wanted to say a few things about expectations. A lot of teams' fans are very concerned with the NCAA Tournament at this point in the season, thinking that one game here or there is a make-or-break game. The reality is that it's very tough to get to the Big Dance - that's part of what makes it so special. Based on how they performed this week and the perception of the league as a whole, I would guess that the ACC would get four teams in this year (just like last year). You know that Duke and Carolina will get in. Florida State, despite their early struggles, should get in. That leaves one spot for Virginia, Miami, Clemson, Virginia Tech and NC State.
It's pointless to get too hung up over one loss in November. If you make the NCAA Tournament, you will have earned it. It will likely require a 10-6 conference record. If you are a team like Virginia Tech, with a lot of young players, it's unlikely that this is the year to break the drought. So I would say to fans to just enjoy the development of the team and not waste too much energy worrying about that bubble.
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