Monday, May 28, 2012

2011-2012 Season in Review: North Carolina

32-6 overall, 14-2 ACC

If you look at that record, it's hard to call the season a disappointment. But expectations were extremely high. You can break down Coach Roy Williams' tenure in Chapel Hill by three classes: the group that included Felton, May and McCants won a National Championship. The group of Lawson, Ellington and Hansbrough won a National Championship. So many expected the group of Marshall, Barnes, Henson and Zeller to win one as well. Things don't always turn out as planned.

North Carolina began the season with five wins, and then surprisingly lost against UNLV.  They added another loss to eventual national champion Kentucky before reeling off nine straight wins.  Conference play for the most part was a breeze.  The two games they lost were each surprising in their own way.  First there was a 33 point loss at Florida State in which Coach Williams pulled his team off the floor before the final buzzer.  Then the amazing comeback by Duke and final shot by Austin Rivers.

Then the injury bug hit.  John Henson missed three games, and was largely ineffective when he came back.  The killer, though, was the injury to Kendall Marshall.  He was hurt in the Creighton game, and a team that was already short Dexter Strickland and Leslie McDonald was extremely thin at point guard.  It's hard to put all the blame on Stilman White, but he was ineffective trying to replace Marshall, and North Carolina's season ended in the Elite Eight.

The one constant all year for North Carolina was Tyler Zeller.  He finished with 16.3 points and 9.6 rebounds per game and took home the ACC Player of the Year honor.  His presence down low made up for the relative shortcomings of Harrison Barnes.  He was the team's leading scorer, but didn't quite fill the promise of his freshman year.  Barnes exceeded 20 points in 13 games, but didn't pick up the slack when the other players were out injured.  He only topped the 20 point mark once in the last ten games.

Biggest Win:
88-70 at Duke (March 3)

Duke was ranked #4 in the nation at the time, but North Carolina was coming in with a lot of fire, and it showed.  They were angry about the way the first matchup ended, and took it to Duke from the start.  The Blue Devils really never had a chance in this one.

Worst Loss:
85-84 vs. Duke (February 8)

The 33 point loss to Florida State was embarrassing, but it doesn't compare to blowing a late lead to your biggest rival at home and losing on a three pointer by a freshman.  Austin Rivers' dagger silenced the 20,000 in the Dean Dome and took a lot of air out of the fanbase.

Postseason Play:

North Carolina started the ACC Tournament with a very easy win over Maryland.  The semifinal game was a real dogfight against N.C. State.  It took a late basket by Marshall to beat the Wolfpack by two.  In the final, North Carolina surprisingly lost to Florida State once again.  The Seminoles seemed to be a team on the mission, and won a back and forth affair by three.  The NCAA Tournament was an interesting ride.  After getting a #1 seed and taking care of Vermont, they won fairly easily against Creighton, but suffered that crippling injury to Marshall.  The Tar Heels could feel the effects of his loss right away, needing overtime to beat Ohio.  They actually played quite well in the first half of their Elite Eight game against Kansas, but the Jayhawks made all the plays down the stretch and won by 13.

Next Year:

Next year's Tar Heel team will look very different.  Zeller is the only real senior of consequence to leave.  But Henson, Barnes and Marshall have all declared for the NBA Draft and are leaving school early.  That is four starters gone.  The good news is James Michael McAdoo returns, and he looks to be a star.  McAdoo should be the team's best player next year.  They do get Strickland and McDonald back from injury, which should help.  The major questions, though, will be who will play point guard and who will provide post depth?  The best freshman prospect is probably Marcus Paige, who is not a big scorer but could provide stability at the point.  So how is North Carolina going to do next year?  They aren't going to go 14-2 in conference next year.  But they're also not going to go 8-8.  I would expect them to contend for the top spot alongside Duke and N.C. State.

Saturday, May 26, 2012

2011-2012 Season in Review: Duke

27-7 overall, 13-3 ACC

It was an odd year for the Duke Blue Devils.  For the first time that I can remember, they actually played better on the road than at home.  Duke managed to go 8-0 on the road in conference, including wins at North Carolina and Florida State.  On the other side, they struggled at home more than any Duke team in recent memory.  The Blue Devils lost three times at home, and could easily have lost to Virginia, Virginia Tech and N.C. State.

The year started off well.  Duke went to Maui and won the tournament that they have dominated over the years.  They beat eventual national runner-up Kansas in the title game.  After starting the year 7-0, they went to Columbus and got killed by Ohio State.  But they responded and won their next five games.  After a somewhat surprising road loss at Temple, they got it together for the start of conference play.  The highlight was of course the comeback at North Carolina and last second shot by Austin Rivers.  That was the start of seven straight wins.  The turning point in the season, though, came with the injury to Ryan Kelly.  He was unable to play in the postseason, and Duke came out on the wrong end of one of the most shocking upsets in NCAA Tournament history, losing to #15 seed Lehigh.

Rivers was an interesting star for the Blue Devils.  Much like Terrell Stoglin at Maryland, he never saw a shot he didn't like.  When he was on, he would hit ridiculous shots, and came through in the clutch.  But he could also make you shake your head at times, and wasn't the best assist man at point guard.  Mason and Miles Plumlee were solid presences down low, averaging 16 rebounds a game between them.  But at times one or the other would disappear offensively.  Kelly was the team's third leading scorer, and led the team in 3 point percentage and free throw percentage.  You can see what a big difference it made not having him in the lineup for the team's last three games.

Biggest Win:
85-84 at North Carolina (February 8)

This was an incredible game and ending that was a big boost for Duke.  They were coming off a home loss to Miami, and were playing against a team with superior talent.  It looked like North Carolina would put them away, but they never could.  And some clutch shooting by Rivers and mistakes by UNC's Tyler Zeller set up the dramatic ending.  This game will be replayed whenever North Carolina and Duke play each other for years to come.

Worst Loss:
75-70 to Lehigh in the NCAA Tournament (March 16)

It isn't often when a team's worst loss is in the NCAA Tournament.  But it's hard to hide from this one.  Duke simply never loses games to teams like this.  Not in the regular season, and certainly not in the NCAA Tournament.  That's no slight to Lehigh, who played their butts off.  But Duke just did not come to play, and even without Kelly, did not have an excuse for losing this one.  If you single out one thing from this game for Duke, it has to be the performance of their sharpshooters.  Seth Curry and Andre Dawkins combined for 12 points on 3-18 shooting.

Postseason Play:

It was certainly a disappointing postseason for Duke.  They really didn't play well in any of their three postseason games, which were all without Kelly.  In the ACC Tournament, they got a sloppy four point win over Virginia Tech before losing in the semifinals to Florida State by three.  They still got a 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament, but squandered that with the loss to Lehigh.

Next Year:

Duke is good every year and next year should be no exception.  They are losing some offense, though.  Rivers has decided to go pro, so the team's leading scorer is gone.  The only senior Duke loses is Miles Plumlee.  The big question for next year will be who will be able to step up and carry the team like Rivers did at times.  There are good pieces returning, with Curry, Dawkins, Mason Plumlee and Kelly.  Duke brings in a typical strong recruiting class, including late commit Amile Jefferson and five star prospect Rasheed Sulaimon.  They should have the talent to compete for the ACC title once again.

Tuesday, May 22, 2012

2011-2012 Season in Review: Florida State

25-10 overall, 12-4 ACC

It was certainly an eventful year in Tallahassee.  Florida State started the year with very high expectations, looking to challenge Duke and UNC and perhaps go farther than their Sweet 16 finish the year before.  Instead, the season started out as a bit of a struggle.  Florida State played pretty poorly at a tournament in the Bahamas, scoring 41 points in a loss to Harvard and later losing to UConn.  There would be more bumps in the road in the non-conference, including a home loss to Princeton.  Two games later, Florida State went on the road at previously struggling Clemson and lost by 20.

Things looked fairly bleak then.  Florida State sat at 9-6 and 0-1 in the ACC.  Then Leonard Hamilton flipped a switch.  The Seminoles looked like a completely different team, winning the next seven games in a row and 10 out of the next 11. That included a shocking 33 point home win against North Carolina and a buzzer-beating road win at Duke.  Part of this stretch was marked by fantastic finishes and clutch shots.  Besides the win at Cameron, Florida State made up big late deficits in wins at home against Virginia Tech and on the road at Virginia.  The ACC Tournament was a dream for the Seminoles.  They captured their first ACC Tournament title, and did it by beating two top ten teams in North Carolina and Duke.  I'm not sure if they had a letdown after that or what, but they weren't the same in the NCAA Tournament, struggling to beat St. Bonaventure and then bowing out against Cincinnati.

It was a pretty balanced attack for Florida State that got it done.  They put emphasis on the defensive end, as always, but were able to show offensive firepower at times.  Michael Snaer broke out for a very good season.  He led the team in scoring, three point shooting, free throw shooting and assists.  Bernard James had a very solid year.  The elder statesman of the ACC averaged 10.8 points and 8.1 rebounds per game.  Luke Loucks and Deividas Dulkys had the ability to put a lot of points up in bunches at times.  It seemed like one or the other was always on.

Biggest Win:
85-82 vs. North Carolina in the ACC Tournament (March 11)

The win against North Carolina in Tallahassee was certainly an eye-opener, but this was the most significant win.  Florida State had gotten to the finals of the ACC Tournament before, but never won it.  They battled back and forth against North Carolina in this one, never quitting, and held off the Tar Heels at the end.  It was 11 three pointers compared to 5 for North Carolina that was the biggest difference in earning the Seminoles their first ACC Tournament title.

Worst Loss:
64-60 at Boston College (February 8)

This was the most bizarre result of the ACC season.  Florida State was coming in having won seven straight games against the worst team in the league.  And they somehow lost.  Boston College actually controlled much of this game.  This is just one you laugh off and move past.  And Florida State did, winning their next three.

Postseason Play:

As I said before, the ACC Tournament was a great success.  Florida State opened with a relatively easy win over Miami.  They followed it up with a strange win over Duke that the Seminoles almost gave away at the very end. And then the title game win over North Carolina.  The NCAA Tournament was a different story.  Florida State came in as a 3 seed, and really struggled in their first game against #14 St. Bonaventure.  They were actually losing most of the game, took the lead late, then had to withstand a couple last second shots to advance.  Their game against Cincinnati was much of the same, except they weren't able to come out on top, falling 62-56.

Next Year:

Florida State loses as much of their team as any in the ACC this year.  Dulkys, Loucks, James, Xavier Gibson, Jon Kreft and Jeff Peterson are all seniors and graduating.  The only remaining starter will be Snaer.  He will definitely be the team leader.  He should form a pretty good backcourt with Ian Miller, who showed some poise and shooting ability toward the end of the year.  Okaro White will have to step up and provide some inside scoring next year.  The Seminoles bring in a couple good recruits.  But you have to expect they are going to take a step down next year.  I don't think they fall far, but they could struggle to finish in the top 4 of the conference.

Sunday, May 20, 2012

2011-2012 Season in Review: Virginia

22-10 overall, 9-7 ACC

All things considered, this season has to be considered a success for Virginia.  They got back to the NCAA Tournament for the first time in five years, earned a bye in the ACC Tournament, and for the most part met their expectations for the year.  Virginia definitely came in as one of the favorites in the ACC, with Mike Scott back for his final season and Coach Tony Bennett ready to take the program to the next level.  They started out the season as predicted, winning 14 of their first 15 games, including wins over Michigan, Oregon (on the road) and LSU (on the road).  The only loss was surprisingly to TCU at a neutral site.

ACC play went pretty well for Virginia.  For the most part, they beat the teams they were supposed to beat and lost to the teams they were supposed to lose to.  The Cavaliers went 0-5 against the teams that finished above them, and 9-2 against the rest.  A good part of their success was how they were able to play on the road.  They finished 4-4 in conference on the road, including a one-point win over N.C. State.  If there's a negative to the season, it's how they finished. Virginia was unable to knock off the Wolfpack for a second time in the ACC Tournament, and then had a very poor showing in the NCAA Tournament, losing to Florida by 26.

Part of the reason Virginia struggled when they did was because of attrition.  They suffered a number of injuries, suspensions and transfers.  James Johnson and K.T. Harrell decided in the middle of the season that they were going elsewhere.  Assane Sene was injured and then eventually suspended, a huge blow on the inside.  Joe Harris got hurt in the meat of the ACC schedule, and amazingly didn't miss any games, but was not nearly as effective.  Only four players were able to play in all 32 games.

Scott was definitely the leader on the floor.  He was my pick for ACC player of the year, and ended the season averaging 18 points and 8 rebounds per game.  He offered the team consistent production, only three times failing to score in double figures.  Harris was the second leading scorer, and before he got hurt was producing consistently as well.  Sammy Zeglinski was up and down, but seemed to find his shooting touch after a mid-season slump.

Biggest Win:
70-58 vs. Michigan (November 29)

This was the game that proved Virginia would be a force to be reckoned with nationally.  Michigan was a very solid team that tied for the Big Ten regular season title.  But they were outclassed by the Cavaliers in a rare offensive output.  Virginia likes to play in the 50s but broke out for 70 in this one.

Worst Loss:
47-45 vs. Virginia Tech (January 22)

This was the only head-scratching home loss the Cavaliers had.  You could chalk it up to being a rivalry game, but UVA looked very flat in this one.  Only managing 45 points at home against your rival is not going to get it done.  Fortunately for the Cavaliers, they were able to bounce back after this game to win their next three.

Postseason Play:

As I mentioned earlier, the postseason was a disappointment.  They entered the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament with a chance to knock N.C. State out of the NCAAs, but ran up against a hungrier team.  At this point in the season it seemed like Virginia was just out of gas.  They went into the NCAA Tournament as a 10 seed, an underdog against Florida.  But they really got hammered, with a very poor offensive output.  They seemed overmatched against the talented Gators and lost 71-45.

Next Year:

It will be very interesting to see where Virginia goes from here.  They definitely lose a lot of talent, with Scott exhausting his eligibility.  Sene and Zeglinski are also graduating.  The key returnees for next year will be Harris and point guard Jontel Evans, who will have to be leaders on the floor.  Evans in particular needs to work on his shot this summer.  He is a solid player but is not an offensive threat.  Coach Bennett does bring in four four-star recruits, and you can expect to see freshmen get a lot of playing time next year.  If he can get this team back to the NCAA Tournament next year without Scott, he deserves a raise.

Friday, May 18, 2012

2011-2012 Season in Review: N.C. State

24-13 overall, 9-7 ACC

What a difference a head coach makes.  Sidney Lowe was able to recruit some talented players to Raleigh, but he couldn't coach them into a cohesive unit.  Lowe leaves, veteran coach Mark Gottfried enters, and the team is reborn.  Nine wins in the ACC and a trip to the Sweet 16.  Things are definitely looking up at N.C. State.

There was not much in the start of the season to indicate success later on down the line.  The team got a decent win over a worse-than-normal Texas team at a neutral site.  They collapsed late in a home loss to Indiana, then followed that up with a loss at Stanford.  Then the Wolfpack went on a nice roll, helped by a stretch of easier games.  They won nine out of 10, including 3-0 on the road.  N.C. State was on the bubble pretty much the whole year, and many people thought it would come down to a tough four game stretch against Duke, FSU, UNC and Clemson.  After they lost all four of those games, things looked bleak. But they got a win over fellow bubble team Miami, blew out Virginia Tech on the road, and won two games in the ACC Tournament.  That earned them an NCAA berth.

All year long, the team was carried by its starting five.  All of them averaged double figures in points for the year.  The leader was C.J. Leslie, who has always had great talent but hasn't always played hard.  Leslie shot 52.5% from the field on the year, a very solid percentage.  Lorenzo Brown may have been the most valuable player for N.C. State.  He was the second leading scorer and got 6.3 assists per game.  He was a very solid point guard and floor leader.  Scott Wood was always good for a few threes per game, and Richard Howell and C.J. Williams were solid complementary players who could break out for 20 on occasion.

Biggest Win:
66-63 vs. Georgetown in the Round of 32 (March 18)

N.C. State was the 11 seed in their bracket, but looked like the better team against San Diego State.  Then they had to play Georgetown, a 3 seed that on paper looked like a significantly better team.  The Wolfpack didn't back down, though, and led most of a back-and-forth game.  This was a huge win for a program that hasn't had many in recent years.

Worst Loss:
82-71 vs. Georgia Tech (January 11)

This was just a head-scratcher.  The only loss in a stretch of 10 games for N.C. State, they basically laid an egg at home.  Georgia Tech was not a good offensive team that went off for 82 points.  This bad loss could have come back to haunt the Wolfpack if they hadn't made the tournament.

Postseason Play:

It was definitely a successful postseason for N.C. State.  Needing to do some damage in the ACC Tournament, they dispatched Boston College, then won a very close game against Virginia, 67-64.  But it was the semifinal loss to rival North Carolina that may have gotten more votes from the committee.  N.C. State played very tough in this bizarre game that saw Leslie foul out midway through the second half and a very questionable no-call on a late basket by Kendall Marshall.  Then it was off to the NCAA Tournament, where they took care of San Diego State and then got that big win over Georgetown.   They had a great shot in their Sweet 16 game against Kansas, building an early lead.  But they just couldn't make the plays in the final minute to win.

Next Year:

Many people are penciling in N.C. State as the favorite to win the league next year.  And there are certainly some good reasons why.  Leslie is coming back for his junior season.  Williams is the only starter who is a senior.  DeShawn Painter, the sixth man, is transferring to be closer to sick family members.  With Leslie and Brown as the leaders, this team will go far.  They are also bringing in a pretty stout recruiting class, with a five star guard named Rodney Purvis leading the way.  The only concern I have is post depth with Painter transferring.  But State certainly has the horses to finish in the top three of the ACC.

Tuesday, May 15, 2012

2011-2012 Season in Review: Miami

20-13 overall, 9-7 ACC

It was hard to expect what kind of year Miami would have.  They had plenty of talent returning, but bringing in a new coach always comes with questions.  To his credit, Jim Larranaga did a very solid job with what he was dealt.  He had to go through an injury to his best player, Reggie Johnson, that would keep him out of the first part of the season.  And eligibility issues with DeQuan Jones.  The non-conference was pretty non-descript.  Miami didn't have any marquee wins, with a few losses to teams that were better than they were.

The Hurricanes pulled it together once they got Johnson back and finished pretty well in conference play.  The highlight was definitely a win at Cameron Indoor over Duke in overtime.  That victory put Miami at least on the bubble for the rest of the season.  Part of the reason why they didn't end up making the NCAA Tournament was probably their struggles against another bubble team, N.C. State.  The Wolfpack beat them twice.  Miami also lost a key road game late against Maryland.  They did beat Florida State in addition to Duke, but in the end nine conference wins in the weak ACC was just not enough.

Scoring was a pretty good balance for Miami this year.  Kenny Kadji had a breakout year, ending up as the second-leading scorer.  He played a large role when Johnson was out.  Johnson probably could have ended up with better numbers than his 10.0 points per game and 7.2 rebounds per game, but he spent some games in foul trouble.  Larranaga chose to give a lot of guys minutes, more than you see on most college teams.  Ten players averaged at least 11 minutes per game.  That will certainly help the younger players who were able to get some experience.

Biggest Win:
78-74 at Duke (February 5)

Miami surprised a lot of people by winning in Cameron Indoor, which in most years is a very tough place to win.  The Hurricanes did a nice job persevering in this one, losing a late lead in regulation only to come back in overtime and win.  Johnson was the best player for either team in this game, scoring a career-high 27 points and getting 12 rebounds.  This was part of a five game winning streak for Miami.

Worst Loss:
78-73 vs. N.C. State (January 22)

This game didn't really mean a lot at the time, but ended up being a big factor in the NCAA Tournament consideration.  N.C. State ended up in the tournament, and Miami out.  The Wolfpack looked like the better team in this game, really controlling the action.  They had a double digit lead for most of the game before Miami came back to make it a game.  This was one of only two conference home losses for the Canes (besides North Carolina).

Postseason Play:

Miami came into the ACC Tournament needing to do some damage if they wanted to make the NCAA Tournament.  It looked like they might not even make it out of the first round.  They really struggled in the first half against Georgia Tech, but went on a run to put them away, 54-36.  The quarterfinal game was against rival Florida State.  The Seminoles were on a mission that week, and beat Miami fairly easily, 82-71.  After missing out on an NCAA Tournament bid, Miami got into the NIT.  They hosted Valparaiso, and won easily, 66-50.  In the second round, though, Minnesota really it took it to the Hurricanes, winning in Coral Gables 78-60.

Next Year:

Miami loses some key players to graduation.  Malcolm Grant was the team's third leading scorer and led the team in made three pointers.  Jones had a limited role this past season.  They do return as much as any team in the ACC.  Johnson comes back for his senior season.  Leading scorer Durand Scott is back.  Emerging talent Shane Larkin should step into a starting role next year.  With Scott, Kadji, Johnson and Larkin, those are very solid pieces.  On talent alone, Miami should be better than half the teams in the conference.  If Coach Larranaga can get the most out of his players, they should be able to make the NCAA Tournament and could push for a top four finish in the ACC.

Monday, May 14, 2012

2011-2012 Season in Review: Clemson

16-15 overall, 8-8 ACC

I went into this past season with high hopes for Clemson.  They were coming off a year in which they finished strong and made the NCAA Tournament, even winning a game (albeit a play-in round game).  They were bringing most of their pieces back, and I liked Coach Brad Brownell.  Then the season started.  The Tigers faced some adversity out of the gates, with early season home losses to College of Charleston, Coastal Carolina and South Carolina.  The Tigers had a really poor showing out in Hawaii, losing to UTEP and Hawaii.  Expectations were not very high going into the ACC season.

To Clemson's credit, they were able to turn it around a bit.  They finished 8-8 in the league, which didn't seem possible in December.  A lot of that confidence probably came from their first league game, a 20 point home win over Florida State.  One thing Clemson had going for it was the weakness of the league.  They didn't have the most talent, but they had better players than several other teams in the league, who they ended up beating up on.  Five of their eight conference wins were against teams who finished nine through 12.  Clemson also benefited from only having to play Duke once and UNC once.

There really wasn't one dominant player for the Tigers.  Andre Young and Tanner Smith were the veterans, and they were the top two scorers.  Devin Booker turned in a nice year as expected.  Milton Jennings was a bit of a disappointment, and seemed to disappear at times.  Bryan Narcisse started 17 games but only scored 2.6 points per game.

Biggest Win:
79-59 vs. Florida State (January 7)

This was definitely a surprise at the time, and one that seemed to make both teams better.  Clemson played significantly better from this point of the season on.

Worst Loss:
59-57 at Boston College (January 12)

It's interesting that Clemson played its worst game of the year right after its best game.  They went up to Chestnut Hill and played horribly, botching numerous late game situations.  This game was not pretty to watch.  Some people thought BC wouldn't win an ACC game all year, but they were able to knock off Clemson.

Postseason Play:

It was a disappointing time in the ACC Tournament for Clemson.  They came in as the favorite against Virginia Tech but got outplayed and ultimately lost 68-63.  Clemson was the only favorite to go down on day 1.  They had an overall winning record but did not get an invite to the NIT.

Next Year:

I think next year is a big year for Coach Brownell.  He surprised many with a trip to the NCAA Tournament in his first year, but that was with Oliver Purnell's recruits.  In his second year the team took a step backward.  Clemson has big losses in the backcourt, with Smith and Young graduating.  They also lose Narcisse and Catalin Baciu, both seniors who played smaller roles.

The strength of the team next year will be the frontcourt.  Booker and Jennings return and should be solid presences.  I also like K.J. McDaniels, who averaged less than four points per game as a freshman but showed some flashes in a few games of great talent.  Where Clemson will really struggle is in the backcourt.  They are not left with anyone who has shown an ability to score on a consistent basis.  Three point shooting will be tough to come by.  If Rod Hall and T.J. Sapp can develop into offensive threats, Clemson has a chance to challenge for an NCAA bid.  Otherwise, I think it's a similar season to what we just saw.

Wednesday, May 09, 2012

2011-2012 Season in Review: Maryland

17-15 overall, 6-10 ACC

We're now moving out of the logjam for last place and up the ACC standings.  Maryland was team in transition this past year.  There was plenty of contention, with new coach Mark Turgeon calling out his players early in the season, and some issues with star Terrell Stoglin.  On the court, the Terps were understandably up and down.  They had to learn a whole new system and took a while to get up to speed.  The early season included blowout losses to Alabama and Iona, but wins over Notre Dame and Colorado.

In ACC play, for the most part Maryland beat the teams it should have beaten, and lost to the teams it should have lost to.  Of their six wins, five came at home.  They lost all six games against ranked conference opponents.  The whole team basically revolved around Stoglin.  He was the type of player who would do some pretty incredible things, and once he got hot he kept shooting.  That could be great, or it could get the team in trouble if he kept missing wild shots.  Stoglin led the conference in scoring at 21.6 points per game.

Behind him were mostly nice role players.  Sean Mosley was the only other player to average double figures.  Pe'Shon Howard was injured for much of the season and wasn't really able to build on his strong freshman campaign.  Alex Len had a lot of press, and played well at times, but should have been better than his 6.0 PPG average.  Another interesting player was Nick Faust.  He came in highly touted, but suffered some freshman growing pains in the first half of the season.  He came on in the latter part of the year, though.  His scoring average was 8.9 for the season, but jumped to 13.4 in the last nine games.

Biggest Win:
64-62 at Clemson (February 7)

The win over Notre Dame looked better at the end of the year, but the Irish were struggling early in the season when Maryland played them.  So I'm going to go with Maryland's lone road win, against a Clemson team that finished higher in the standings.  Maryland was actually ahead by a bigger margin and had to withstand a late comeback.  When you look at Maryland's road schedule, it's easy to see why they went 1-7.  The three teams in the league that they did not play on the road were Virginia Tech, Boston College and Wake Forest, three of the four worst teams in the conference.

Worst Loss:
63-61 at Georgia Tech (February 25)

This is really the only game that could qualify as a bad loss on Maryland's schedule.  Georgia Tech came in really struggling, losers of four in a row, and they did not have Glen Rice, Jr.  The final score looked better than it was, as Stoglin made a three pointer at the buzzer to cut it to two.

Postseason Play:

Maryland got a very good draw in their first round 8/9 game, playing a very weak #9 seed in Wake Forest.  They blew open a close game in the second half, and got a nice 82-60 win.  Unfortunately, they had to play #1 seed North Carolina and weren't able to keep up, falling 85-69.  Maryland had a winning record but was not selected to go to the NIT.

Next Year:

Up until a couple weeks ago, Maryland was being touted as one of the rising teams in the ACC with a potential top four conference finish.  That basically went out of the window with Stoglin's decision to go to the NBA.  He was forced to make that decision, as the university announced he would have been suspended for next season.  Whatever he did, it was bad enough to get kicked off the team.  That leaves Maryland without the heart and soul of their team.  The Terps will also be losing Mosley, who was the team's second leading scorer.  Mychal Parker, who only had 4.3 points per game, is transferring.

There is some good news: Maryland brings in a nice recruiting class, including Sam Cassell's son.  If Howard can stay healthy, he and Faust can form a strong backcourt tandem.  Len should be improved next season.  Maryland should be strong defensively, but without Stoglin will probably struggle to put points on the board.  I think that Turgeon is a good coach and he can potentially guide this team to a finish in the 5th or 6th range in the ACC.  But I feel like the Terps are one injury or transfer away from being right back where they were this past year.

Monday, May 07, 2012

2011-2012 Season in Review: Wake Forest

13-18 overall, 4-12 ACC

It was hard to get much worse than what happened to Wake two seasons ago.  Only one ACC win, and 14 losses in conference by double digits.  The good news is this past year was better - a little better.  Wake didn't have a disastrous non-conference season, getting a decent road win at Nebraska and beating Texas Tech at a neutral site.  They did lose their last non-conference game at home to Wofford, perhaps a sign of things to come.

After starting out conference play with a home win over Virginia Tech, the Deacs lost 9 of their next 10, with the lone win at doormat Boston College.  In fact, all four of Wake's conference wins came against the three teams that finished below them in the standings.  They went 1-7 on the road in conference, five of those losses by double digits.

Wake actually had two pretty decent players in C.J. Harris and Travis McKie.  Those two combined for nearly 33 points per game.  The problem was the lack of production behind them.  They had some tall guys who could block shots, but no one else who could provide consistent offense.  They also suffered from a lack of leadership, which was a problem in the previous season.  I have been a critic of Coach Jeff Bzdelik from the start, and he hasn't shown me that he can coach this team.  I'm not even really sure what kind of identity he has as a coach, what kind of system he runs.  And the early returns aren't looking good for next year either.

Biggest Win:
58-55 vs. Virginia Tech (January 7)

It's hard to find a win that Wake can really hang their hat on.  This is the best I could find.  Even though they finished below Wake in the standings, Virginia Tech was a better team, with better talent.  And Wake came out in this first conference game and outplayed them from the opening tip.  They got a clutch three from Harris in the last minute to win.  Interestingly, this is the only conference game Wake won by less than nine points.

Worst Loss:
76-40 vs. N.C. State (January 14)

After that Virginia Tech game, Wake played Maryland close on the road.  They came in probably feeling pretty good, but got absolutely destroyed at home against N.C. State.  This game was a sign that it was the same old Wake.  The Deacs shot 29% for the game, and 2-20 from three.

Postseason Play:

The postseason was short for Wake, and not pretty.  They played Maryland in one of the most mismatched 8/9 games you'll ever see, and lost, 82-60.  They were only down five at halftime, but Maryland blew them out in the second half and put an end to the Wake season.

Next Year:

Turn away now if you are a Wake Forest fan.  The good news is they don't lose much to graduation, with Nikita Mescheriakov and Ty Walker being the only players who played significant minutes.  The bad news is the attrition for the rest of the team.  Carson Desrosiers (4.8 PPG, 1.9 BPG) is transferring.  Tony Chennault (9 PPG) is transferring.  Anthony Fields (barely played) is transferring.  Why are so many players leaving?

Harris and McKie will be back, which is good.  But the only other returning player who had any kind of impact this past season is Chase Fischer, a 35% shooter.  Wake brings in a couple four star recruits, who will need to be good right away.  With so much attrition it's hard to imagine them being any better than they were this past year.  They will probably be fighting BC for the cellar, and it will be the final year for Bzdelik.

Saturday, May 05, 2012

2011-2012 Season in Review: Virginia Tech

16-17 overall, 4-12 ACC

There is a benefit to waiting until a few weeks after the season to write up the reviews.  In Virginia Tech's case, a lot has happened over the past 10 days.  More on the coaching change later on.  First, a look back at last year.  Things were plugging on pretty nicely in the first half of the season.  At the start of the conference season, the Hokies were 11-3, with two wins over Oklahoma State and a strong performance in a loss against Syracuse.

Then the wheels fell off.  The Hokies looked like a completely different team in the conference season, losing 7 out of their next 8 games.  They spent many games playing very poorly in the first half, then coming back late to make it a game, only to lose in the last possession.  No ACC team had so many close games (most of them losses).  Virginia Tech lost by 3 at Wake, 2 at BC, 1 at Florida State, 5 at Duke (in overtime), and 2 at Clemson.  They went 1-7 on the road in conference, but you see that five of their seven losses could have easily gone the other way.

On the other side, look at their conference wins.  Road win at Virginia by 2, home wins over Clemson by 2, BC by 1 and Georgia Tech by 1.  So the record could also have been worse than 4-12.  The easiest thing to point to as a problem this past season was the lack of offense.  The Hokies were able to score 60 points in just seven of their 16 conference games.  Yes, there were injuries.  It especially hurt when Victor Davila missed time at the end of the season.  But the players they did have just couldn't produce offensively, and didn't have the confidence late in games to make big shots.

Biggest Win:
47-45 at Virginia (January 22)

Like I've said in previous recaps, the teams that finished in the bottom of the conference pretty much all beat up on each other.  This was the only game that Virginia Tech won against a team in the top half of the league, and the only conference road game they won.  Dorenzo Hudson came up with a big three pointer in the final minute that was the difference in an ugly game.

Worst Loss:
58-55 at Wake Forest (January 7)

The toughest loss as a fan was definitely the road loss at Florida State, where the Hokies blew a late lead.  But I think the most damaging loss to the team was this one.  This was the first conference game, and Virginia Tech was going in confident against a team that had only won one conference game the year before.  But they got off to a horrible start, down by double digits early, and that really set the tone for the rest of the season.  After a similarly uninspired performance at Boston College the next weekend, the rails were starting to come off.

Postseason Play:

Virginia Tech actually played some of its best basketball in the ACC Tournament.  They came in as an underdog against Clemson, but were able to knock them off in the first round, 68-63.  That five point win was their largest margin of victory since December 31.  They had to then go up against Duke in the quarterfinals.  It was a sloppily played game, but the Hokies hung in there, only to lose by four.

Next Year:

When Virginia Tech AD Jim Weaver decided to get rid of Coach Seth Greenberg, I said that I thought no matter who they hired the team would be terrible next year.  That was partly due to anticipated departures from the program.  Bringing in James Johnson does help plug that gap.  It looks like none of the current players will transfer out, and at this point one of the two commits has said he is still coming to Tech.

The Hokies lose Dorenzo Hudson and Victor Davila, who combined to score about 18 points per game.  They should have better talent next year, with big keys being Dorian Finney-Smith and Cadarian Raines.  Finney-Smith has a ton of potential, but never seemed to get into the groove offensively.  Raines only averaged 5.9 points per game, but that average jumped to 11 points per game in the last seven.  He could be an emerging force down low.

If they can convince Montrezl Harrell to keep his commitment to Tech, the team would have the talent to push for an NCAA bid.  However, none of us really knows what James Johnson will bring to the table as a coach, what his system will be, and how the players will respond.  The Hokies will be one of the biggest wild cards in the conference next year.