It was a pretty uneventful weekend in the ACC, with not many teams in action. We did see one big upset, though, that may shift the balance of power in the league a bit. Virginia Tech lost at home to Georgia Southern, 78-73. The game actually wasn't as close as the final score indicated, either. The Hokies really laid an egg in this one, and with the subsequent injury to Marshall Wood their stock has taken a bit of a hit. We'll see how they can respond.
A couple other teams struggled in wins. North Carolina barely got by East Carolina at home, giving up 87 points to the Pirates. And Boston College was narrowly able to escape another embarrassing loss, defeating New Hampshire at home in overtime. There are a few intriguing games this week before teams go on a holiday break. Here are the highlights:
Tuesday:
Miami at UCF (7:00 p.m., FSN)
The Hurricanes have been playing really good basketball lately, but they have a tough road game ahead. UCF has some athletic players and has been known in recent years to play very well in the non-conference. I expect Miami to win this one, but don't be surprised if UCF gives them a fight.
Stanford at N.C. State (9:00 p.m., ESPN2)
This is a tough cross-country road game for Stanford, returning the favor after N.C. State went out to Palo Alto last year. The Cardinal have not done much to write home about so far. They are 7-3 with losses to Belmont, Missouri and Minnesota. Their best win is at a neutral site against Northern Iowa. I expect the Wolfpack to win by about 10.
Wednesday:
Clemson at Coastal Carolina (7:00 p.m.)
The Tigers need to be careful in this one. They lost to Coastal last year at home. This is the type of game that Coach Brad Brownell's team really needs to win. They have to prove that they can play well on the road, something they did not do last year. Coastal has not been very good so far, with only one win over a Division 1 school.
North Carolina at Texas (9:00 p.m., ESPN2)
This should be a good battle between two teams that have disappointed their fan bases so far. North Carolina failed in their last road game, against then #1 Indiana. They can get the Longhorns, though. Texas has a horrible loss to Chaminade on their record, plus losses to USC, Georgetown and UCLA.
Monday, December 17, 2012
Thursday, December 13, 2012
ACC Progress Report
We're about a month into the season, and the schedule is pretty light with schools in final exams. So it's a good time to take stock of where the teams are at this point. I'm going to start at the top of the standings and work my way down.
Duke (9-0)
A lot of people weren't very high on Duke coming into the year, saying they didn't have any stars. That may be true, although Mason Plumlee is making the case that he is one. But Duke has a very good case to be the #1 team in the country. They have already beaten Louisville, Kentucky, Ohio State, VCU, Temple and Minnesota. That's a pretty good schedule. They are doing it with Plumlee averaging a double-double and a much improved Quinn Cook at the point. Hard to find much wrong with Duke right now.
Maryland (9-1)
A lot of people are high on the Terps, and for good reason. They have a lot of solid players on their team, especially Alex Len and Dez Wells. They have the potential to be a really good team. So far, there isn't a ton to point to in terms of results. Their one loss to Kentucky does not look as good now as it did at the time. Their best wins are on the road at Northwestern and at a neutral site against George Mason. Right now they are in the middle of an eight game homestand, so their record will continue to improve.
Virginia Tech (8-1)
The Hokies are probably the surprise team of the league right now, with an explosive start. Coach James Johnson's offense has been terrific, as the Hokies have topped 80 points in six of their first nine games. Their wins are a little more impressive than Maryland, although they both came at home (Iowa and Oklahoma State). They really missed a big opportunity losing to West Virginia on the road by one last week. But they should put together a few more wins before a tough road game at BYU.
Miami (5-1)
We haven't seen many games from Miami yet, because they are playing in the Diamond Head Classic the last week of December. They seem to be trending up, with recent wins against Michigan State and at UMass. Miami does have that ugly loss at Florida Gulf Coast that may haunt them come Selection Sunday. But other than that they have shown the promise that many people thought might come out this year.
Virginia (8-2)
Virginia has been an interesting team. They have two losses early in the season to teams from the CAA: George Mason and Delaware. They also have one of the most impressive wins of the year from a team not named Duke: a road win at Wisconsin. That's the only game most people have probably seen this year, as they haven't been on TV much. The Cavaliers do have a solid win at home over Tennessee, and the remaining non-conference schedule is not difficult.
North Carolina (7-2)
There is some unrest in Chapel Hill as the Tar Heels have not looked that sharp to start the season. Their two losses are by double digits, one to #1 Indiana on the road and the other a Maui loss to Butler. It's hard to find a good win on their resume, maybe on the road at Long Beach State. But we should find out more about these young Tar Heels soon. They have games against Texas and UNLV in the next two weeks.
N.C. State (6-2)
It's a little odd to see N.C. State seventh in the standings. And as frustrated as some people have been with the Wolfpack, they have only played one really bad game. That was on national TV to Oklahoma State. Their other loss was at Michigan, nothing to be ashamed of. And they have bounced back since for wins against UConn and Cleveland State. N.C. State has some terrific freshmen who will only get better as the season goes on. A home game against Stanford is the only real test in the next five.
Georgia Tech (6-2)
The Yellow Jackets have come along pretty well so far this year. They have a good win against St. Mary's and showed well on the road at Illinois until the final minutes. Their other loss was to Cal. They haven't exactly been an offensive powerhouse, only topping 65 points twice. But they are strong defensively. We won't find out much about Georgia Tech until they start conference play. Their next four games should pose no problems.
Clemson (5-3)
Clemson has been a mixed bag. They have had some bad performances, especially a blowout home loss to Purdue. But they have also played well, like in their win over rival South Carolina. This team is still trying to find their go-to player, and problems with Milton Jennings have not helped. Like Georgia Tech, we probably won't find out how good the Tigers are until conference play starts.
Florida State (5-4)
Now we start getting to the really disappointing teams. Florida State is right at the top. It's really shocking that they have already lost four home games, including to South Alabama and Mercer. The only time they have really played well was at the Coaches vs. Cancer tournament, where they beat BYU and St. Joseph's. Florida State still has to go to Charlotte and Auburn, so it's not inconceivable that they could have six non-conference losses.
Wake Forest (4-5)
Wake is just a mess. They had a terrible performance at home against Nebraska, and have lost to UConn, Iona, Richmond and Seton Hall. Their best win is against Mercer. I read today that Coach Jeff Bzdelik has stopped taking live questions on his call-in show, obviously wanting to avoid criticism. Wake has got to get more from players not named C.J. Harris or Travis McKie.
Boston College (4-5)
No one expected much of BC this year, and they are meeting those expectations. Their road win at Penn State appears to be something of a fluke. The Eagles have lost to Baylor, Dayton, Charleston, Bryant and Harvard. I don't see it getting much better any time soon. BC has four home games against teams they should beat (except maybe Providence), and they need wins.
Duke (9-0)
A lot of people weren't very high on Duke coming into the year, saying they didn't have any stars. That may be true, although Mason Plumlee is making the case that he is one. But Duke has a very good case to be the #1 team in the country. They have already beaten Louisville, Kentucky, Ohio State, VCU, Temple and Minnesota. That's a pretty good schedule. They are doing it with Plumlee averaging a double-double and a much improved Quinn Cook at the point. Hard to find much wrong with Duke right now.
Maryland (9-1)
A lot of people are high on the Terps, and for good reason. They have a lot of solid players on their team, especially Alex Len and Dez Wells. They have the potential to be a really good team. So far, there isn't a ton to point to in terms of results. Their one loss to Kentucky does not look as good now as it did at the time. Their best wins are on the road at Northwestern and at a neutral site against George Mason. Right now they are in the middle of an eight game homestand, so their record will continue to improve.
Virginia Tech (8-1)
The Hokies are probably the surprise team of the league right now, with an explosive start. Coach James Johnson's offense has been terrific, as the Hokies have topped 80 points in six of their first nine games. Their wins are a little more impressive than Maryland, although they both came at home (Iowa and Oklahoma State). They really missed a big opportunity losing to West Virginia on the road by one last week. But they should put together a few more wins before a tough road game at BYU.
Miami (5-1)
We haven't seen many games from Miami yet, because they are playing in the Diamond Head Classic the last week of December. They seem to be trending up, with recent wins against Michigan State and at UMass. Miami does have that ugly loss at Florida Gulf Coast that may haunt them come Selection Sunday. But other than that they have shown the promise that many people thought might come out this year.
Virginia (8-2)
Virginia has been an interesting team. They have two losses early in the season to teams from the CAA: George Mason and Delaware. They also have one of the most impressive wins of the year from a team not named Duke: a road win at Wisconsin. That's the only game most people have probably seen this year, as they haven't been on TV much. The Cavaliers do have a solid win at home over Tennessee, and the remaining non-conference schedule is not difficult.
North Carolina (7-2)
There is some unrest in Chapel Hill as the Tar Heels have not looked that sharp to start the season. Their two losses are by double digits, one to #1 Indiana on the road and the other a Maui loss to Butler. It's hard to find a good win on their resume, maybe on the road at Long Beach State. But we should find out more about these young Tar Heels soon. They have games against Texas and UNLV in the next two weeks.
N.C. State (6-2)
It's a little odd to see N.C. State seventh in the standings. And as frustrated as some people have been with the Wolfpack, they have only played one really bad game. That was on national TV to Oklahoma State. Their other loss was at Michigan, nothing to be ashamed of. And they have bounced back since for wins against UConn and Cleveland State. N.C. State has some terrific freshmen who will only get better as the season goes on. A home game against Stanford is the only real test in the next five.
Georgia Tech (6-2)
The Yellow Jackets have come along pretty well so far this year. They have a good win against St. Mary's and showed well on the road at Illinois until the final minutes. Their other loss was to Cal. They haven't exactly been an offensive powerhouse, only topping 65 points twice. But they are strong defensively. We won't find out much about Georgia Tech until they start conference play. Their next four games should pose no problems.
Clemson (5-3)
Clemson has been a mixed bag. They have had some bad performances, especially a blowout home loss to Purdue. But they have also played well, like in their win over rival South Carolina. This team is still trying to find their go-to player, and problems with Milton Jennings have not helped. Like Georgia Tech, we probably won't find out how good the Tigers are until conference play starts.
Florida State (5-4)
Now we start getting to the really disappointing teams. Florida State is right at the top. It's really shocking that they have already lost four home games, including to South Alabama and Mercer. The only time they have really played well was at the Coaches vs. Cancer tournament, where they beat BYU and St. Joseph's. Florida State still has to go to Charlotte and Auburn, so it's not inconceivable that they could have six non-conference losses.
Wake Forest (4-5)
Wake is just a mess. They had a terrible performance at home against Nebraska, and have lost to UConn, Iona, Richmond and Seton Hall. Their best win is against Mercer. I read today that Coach Jeff Bzdelik has stopped taking live questions on his call-in show, obviously wanting to avoid criticism. Wake has got to get more from players not named C.J. Harris or Travis McKie.
Boston College (4-5)
No one expected much of BC this year, and they are meeting those expectations. Their road win at Penn State appears to be something of a fluke. The Eagles have lost to Baylor, Dayton, Charleston, Bryant and Harvard. I don't see it getting much better any time soon. BC has four home games against teams they should beat (except maybe Providence), and they need wins.
Friday, December 07, 2012
Weekend Preview: 12/8-12/9
It was a relatively light schedule during the week, but things ramp up for the weekend. Ten games are on the slate for Saturday. First, let's look back. The biggest story was probably the continued struggles of Florida State. They got totally outclassed at home against their rival, Florida. FSU has now lost four games at home this year, which is really shocking. The only other ACC team to lose this week was BC, which got blitzed at home by Harvard. Harvard does not have the same quality of team they did last year, and BC should not be losing to them by double digits.
On the positive side, N.C. State got a nice win on a neutral court against UConn. The Wolfpack were down big early, but fought back and pulled out their best win to date. Georgia Tech got a good win over their rival Georgia at home, and Virginia also picked up a home win against a power conference team in offensively-challenged Tennessee.
Now to the weekend. Here are the best games:
Saturday:
Duke vs. Temple (3:15 p.m., ESPN) - This game is being played in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The New York/New Jersey area has been a great place for Duke over the years. Temple was able to beat the Blue Devils last year, but that game was in Philly. Duke has too many weapons to let the same thing happen a second time.
Virginia Tech at West Virginia (4:00 p.m., ESPN2) - Last week was a huge win for Coach James Johnson and the Hokies over Oklahoma State. But this is a whole different animal. The only road game the Hokies have played so far was at UNC Greensboro. West Virginia probably has their worst team in at least five years, but it will be very tough to win in Morgantown.
Seton Hall at Wake Forest (7:00 p.m.) - Wake needs to prove they can beat a quality team, especially at home. Right now their best win is against Mercer. Seton Hall is pretty unproven. They have lost their only two games against good competition. Wake can't pull another double digit loss like they did in the Nebraska game.
Arizona at Clemson (8:00 p.m., ESPN2) - Clemson is 5-2 but they have looked vulnerable at times. They will really have to be on their A game to beat Arizona. The Wildcats are ranked #8 in the country. They haven't played the most strenuous competition, but they have more talent than Clemson.
On the positive side, N.C. State got a nice win on a neutral court against UConn. The Wolfpack were down big early, but fought back and pulled out their best win to date. Georgia Tech got a good win over their rival Georgia at home, and Virginia also picked up a home win against a power conference team in offensively-challenged Tennessee.
Now to the weekend. Here are the best games:
Saturday:
Duke vs. Temple (3:15 p.m., ESPN) - This game is being played in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The New York/New Jersey area has been a great place for Duke over the years. Temple was able to beat the Blue Devils last year, but that game was in Philly. Duke has too many weapons to let the same thing happen a second time.
Virginia Tech at West Virginia (4:00 p.m., ESPN2) - Last week was a huge win for Coach James Johnson and the Hokies over Oklahoma State. But this is a whole different animal. The only road game the Hokies have played so far was at UNC Greensboro. West Virginia probably has their worst team in at least five years, but it will be very tough to win in Morgantown.
Seton Hall at Wake Forest (7:00 p.m.) - Wake needs to prove they can beat a quality team, especially at home. Right now their best win is against Mercer. Seton Hall is pretty unproven. They have lost their only two games against good competition. Wake can't pull another double digit loss like they did in the Nebraska game.
Arizona at Clemson (8:00 p.m., ESPN2) - Clemson is 5-2 but they have looked vulnerable at times. They will really have to be on their A game to beat Arizona. The Wildcats are ranked #8 in the country. They haven't played the most strenuous competition, but they have more talent than Clemson.
Monday, December 03, 2012
Weekend Review
It was a pretty good weekend for the ACC, with one notable exception. We'll get to that in a minute. First, the positive. I was in Blacksburg, where Virginia Tech turned in a great performance at home against Oklahoma State. It felt like a big time battle between two good teams. The Hokies have definitely started out better than anyone expected. The second biggest win was probably Miami, taking out UMass on the road, backing up their win over Michigan State. Clemson and Maryland both got decent wins on Sunday, over South Carolina and George Mason, respectively.
Now to the negative. Florida State lost at home to Mercer, their second bad home loss this year. Keep in mind that Mercer lost to Wake Forest earlier this year. Speaking of Wake, they lost another game that they really needed to win. This one was at least close, a two point loss at Richmond. If you take a look at the ACC, 8 of the 12 teams already have at least two losses. Compare that to the other power leagues:
Big Ten - 6 of 12
Big East - 8 of 15
Big 12 - 5 of 10
Pac 12 - 7 of 12
SEC - 8 of 14
Now this isn't a foolproof barometer of how the conferences are doing, because everybody's schedule is different. But it does give you some indication of how each league looks so far.
The schedule this week is pretty light - only 7 of the 12 ACC teams are playing during the week. There are a few good games, including Florida at Florida State, Tennessee at Virginia and N.C. State vs. UConn (in New York). I think this is a big week for both Florida State and N.C. State, they need wins to right the ship a bit.
Now to the negative. Florida State lost at home to Mercer, their second bad home loss this year. Keep in mind that Mercer lost to Wake Forest earlier this year. Speaking of Wake, they lost another game that they really needed to win. This one was at least close, a two point loss at Richmond. If you take a look at the ACC, 8 of the 12 teams already have at least two losses. Compare that to the other power leagues:
Big Ten - 6 of 12
Big East - 8 of 15
Big 12 - 5 of 10
Pac 12 - 7 of 12
SEC - 8 of 14
Now this isn't a foolproof barometer of how the conferences are doing, because everybody's schedule is different. But it does give you some indication of how each league looks so far.
The schedule this week is pretty light - only 7 of the 12 ACC teams are playing during the week. There are a few good games, including Florida at Florida State, Tennessee at Virginia and N.C. State vs. UConn (in New York). I think this is a big week for both Florida State and N.C. State, they need wins to right the ship a bit.
Friday, November 30, 2012
Weekend Preview: 12/1-12/2
A lot of attention will be on championship week in college football, but there are several really interesting games in college basketball this weekend too. Here are the more intriguing games on the ACC schedule:
Saturday:
Delaware at Duke, 2:00 p.m. (FSN) - Delaware is much better than it has been in the last several years, already winning at UVA. They don't have much chance of an upset in this one, although if they catch Duke on an emotional letdown after the Ohio State game they can keep it close. I expect this to be one of those games where Duke is up maybe three at halftime and ends up winning by 20.
Miami at UMass, 2:00 p.m. (CBS Sports Network) - It wouldn't surprise me at all to see UMass win this game at home, with Miami coming off that big win over Michigan State. The Hurricanes need to carry the momentum from Wednesday, though, and continue to build their NCAA resume.
Oklahoma State at Virginia Tech, 2:00 p.m. - I will be keeping a close eye on this one from Cassell Coliseum. The Hokies have certainly played well in the earlygoing, but this is by far their toughest test. Oklahoma State has that one big blowout win over N.C. State, and a ton of talent. They have only played one game in the last two weeks, so it will be interesting to see if they come out rusty. Virginia Tech could get on the cusp of the Top 25 with a win.
UAB at North Carolina, 6:00 p.m. (ESPNU) - North Carolina is looking to get back to their winning ways at home. And UAB is no slouch. This is the fourth of five straight games on the road for the Blazers. They really haven't beaten anybody yet, so I don't expect them to beat the Tar Heels. But they should at least give them a good game.
Wake Forest at Richmond, 6:00 p.m. - I can't remember how many times this year already I've said: Wake has to win this game. But here's another one. They have got to get some positive momentum to their season. Richmond is certainly beatable: they have lost their only two games against good teams (Minnesota and Ohio). But it is going to be tough for Wake to win on the road.
Sunday:
Clemson at South Carolina, 12:00 p.m. (ESPNU) - Clemson is another team that really needs some positive momentum, especially after that clunker of a game against Illinois. They can certainly win against their rival South Carolina, even on the road. The Gamecocks have lost to Elon already this year and look to be near the bottom of the SEC.
Maryland vs. George Mason, 5:00 p.m. - This game is part of the BB&T Classic at the Verizon Center in D.C. Maryland has been really hot to start the season, and should beat everyone's favorite cinderella. George Mason is always a tough team to play, but they are a little down this year (even though they beat UVA). Expect a 15 point Maryland win.
Saturday:
Delaware at Duke, 2:00 p.m. (FSN) - Delaware is much better than it has been in the last several years, already winning at UVA. They don't have much chance of an upset in this one, although if they catch Duke on an emotional letdown after the Ohio State game they can keep it close. I expect this to be one of those games where Duke is up maybe three at halftime and ends up winning by 20.
Miami at UMass, 2:00 p.m. (CBS Sports Network) - It wouldn't surprise me at all to see UMass win this game at home, with Miami coming off that big win over Michigan State. The Hurricanes need to carry the momentum from Wednesday, though, and continue to build their NCAA resume.
Oklahoma State at Virginia Tech, 2:00 p.m. - I will be keeping a close eye on this one from Cassell Coliseum. The Hokies have certainly played well in the earlygoing, but this is by far their toughest test. Oklahoma State has that one big blowout win over N.C. State, and a ton of talent. They have only played one game in the last two weeks, so it will be interesting to see if they come out rusty. Virginia Tech could get on the cusp of the Top 25 with a win.
UAB at North Carolina, 6:00 p.m. (ESPNU) - North Carolina is looking to get back to their winning ways at home. And UAB is no slouch. This is the fourth of five straight games on the road for the Blazers. They really haven't beaten anybody yet, so I don't expect them to beat the Tar Heels. But they should at least give them a good game.
Wake Forest at Richmond, 6:00 p.m. - I can't remember how many times this year already I've said: Wake has to win this game. But here's another one. They have got to get some positive momentum to their season. Richmond is certainly beatable: they have lost their only two games against good teams (Minnesota and Ohio). But it is going to be tough for Wake to win on the road.
Sunday:
Clemson at South Carolina, 12:00 p.m. (ESPNU) - Clemson is another team that really needs some positive momentum, especially after that clunker of a game against Illinois. They can certainly win against their rival South Carolina, even on the road. The Gamecocks have lost to Elon already this year and look to be near the bottom of the SEC.
Maryland vs. George Mason, 5:00 p.m. - This game is part of the BB&T Classic at the Verizon Center in D.C. Maryland has been really hot to start the season, and should beat everyone's favorite cinderella. George Mason is always a tough team to play, but they are a little down this year (even though they beat UVA). Expect a 15 point Maryland win.
Thursday, November 29, 2012
ACC/Big Ten Challenge: Winners and Losers
All told, it wasn't a bad week for the ACC, earning a tie against what many people think is the best conference. Some of the wins came from unexpected sources, as well. My predicting skills were much better on Day 1: I went 5-1 on the first day, and 2-4 on the second. So let's take a look at some winners and losers, focusing on the ACC:
Winners:
Losers:
Winners:
- Miami
- Virginia schools
- The Cameron Crazies
- Boston College
Losers:
- Florida State
- Home Losers
- UNC's Poise
- Close Games
Monday, November 26, 2012
ACC/Big Ten Challenge Preview
ACC/Big Ten Challenge week is here, and for many ACC teams that means their toughest non-conference game. First, a quick look back at the weekend. Duke has moved up to #2 in the AP poll, and deservedly. They looked very good at the Battle 4 Atlantis, taking care of Minnesota, VCU and Louisville. Quinn Cook has really been a standout for the Blue Devils, although a number of guys are getting it done.
I want to give some credit to Georgia Tech as well. Their stay in the DirecTV Classic was a success, with a good win over St. Mary's. On the negative side, Boston College continues to struggle. Losing at home to Bryant is not going to score any points for the conference. And N.C. State appears to still be in a bit of a funk. They needed some late scoring to get a two point win at home against UNC Asheville.
Here are the matchups for the challenge:
Tuesday:
Iowa at Virginia Tech (7:15 p.m., ESPNU)
The Hokies have looked pretty good this year, especially on offense. They really haven't played anyone, though, and were only seriously challenged in one of their first five games. Iowa is expected to contend for an NCAA bid this year. They have already lost to Wichita State. At the beginning of the year I probably would have picked Iowa but I'll go with the home team.
Pick: Virginia Tech
Minnesota at Florida State (7:15 p.m., ESPN2)
Florida State has rebounded from their first game loss to win four in a row, including wins against BYU and St. Joe's. Minnesota has also played solidly, beating Memphis and Stanford, with their only loss to Duke. This could be one of the best games of the challenge. I'm not quite buying into Florida State yet. I think the Gophers make a late basket to steal one.
Pick: Minnesota
N.C. State at Michigan (7:30 p.m., ESPN)
This was the marquee game of the challenge in my opinion at the start of the year. Now I think it's a pretty easy Michigan win. N.C. State has really struggled to stop anybody in their last two games, and John Beilein's team is rolling. The Wolverines could win this one by double digits.
Pick: Michigan
Maryland at Northwestern (9:15 p.m., ESPN2)
Northwestern is a tricky place to play. The Wildcats usually start out the season well, then fade late in the year. They are undefeated this year, but their best win is against TCU. Coach Mark Turgeon was unhappy with Maryland's effort in their latest game against Georgia Southern, but I think the Terps have a significant edge in talent.
Pick: Maryland
Nebraska at Wake Forest (9:15 p.m., ESPNU)
Wake's best win last year was probably their road win at Nebraska. They should beat the Cornhuskers again this year. Nebraska is a team in transition, with a new coach, and in their last game they lost to Kent State by 14. This is in the running for ugliest game of the challenge.
Pick: Wake Forest
North Carolina at Indiana (9:30 p.m., ESPN)
North Carolina is still trying to figure out its rotation, and they have a monumental challenge here. Indiana hasn't really been playing like the #1 team in the country, but you have to believe they will bring their best at home against the Tar Heels. This one could get out of hand early.
Pick: Indiana
Wednesday:
Virginia at Wisconsin (7:00 p.m., ESPN2)
Wisconsin is a very tough place to play, and the Badgers have another solid team. Coach Bo Ryan's squad is 4-2, but their losses are to Florida and Creighton. Virginia has been playing better, but they don't have the horses to win on the road in Madison.
Pick: Wisconsin
Purdue at Clemson (7:15 p.m., ESPNU)
This may not be the prettiest game, but it is an intriguing matchup. This is definitely not the same quality Purdue team as we've come to expect. They have already lost to Bucknell, Villanova and Oregon State. Clemson struggles to score at times, but I give them the slight edge because they are at home.
Pick: Clemson
Michigan State at Miami (7:30 p.m., ESPN)
It says a lot about the expectations for Miami this year that they got a big time matchup against the Spartans. Michigan State has struggled a little bit so far this year, but then again so has Miami. The Hurricanes will have a tough time dealing with a team that has the experience and coaching of Michigan State. If they had a more hostile home environment, I would be inclined to pick them. But I like the Spartans.
Pick: Michigan State
Georgia Tech at Illinois (9:00 p.m., ESPN2)
Georgia Tech did pick up that nice win over St. Mary's, but they will have a tough road challenge in Champaign. Illinois is 7-0, coming off that surprising Maui Invitational title. They are scoring a lot of points, and the Yellow Jackets will be hard pressed to keep up with them. If Georgia Tech can keep the game in the 60s they have a chance.
Pick: Illinois
Boston College at Penn State (9:15 p.m., ESPNU)
If you are looking to spend two hours being tortured, watch this game. It seems like BC and Penn State play each other every year in this challenge. And this game might not make it out of the 40s. Penn State certainly isn't great. They lost to Akron by 25. But I can't bring myself to pick Boston College to win a road game.
Pick: Penn State
Ohio State at Duke (9:30 p.m., ESPN)
We've saved the best game for last. Ohio State is always good, and really took it to the Blue Devils at home last year. Duke, meanwhile, is off to a great start. I have seen Duke completely blow out teams in this situation before. I don't think the Buckeyes will go that easily. But I do think Duke pulls off another big win.
Pick: Duke
If you're keeping score at home, I have the Big Ten winning the challenge once again, this time by a score of 7-5.
I want to give some credit to Georgia Tech as well. Their stay in the DirecTV Classic was a success, with a good win over St. Mary's. On the negative side, Boston College continues to struggle. Losing at home to Bryant is not going to score any points for the conference. And N.C. State appears to still be in a bit of a funk. They needed some late scoring to get a two point win at home against UNC Asheville.
Here are the matchups for the challenge:
Tuesday:
Iowa at Virginia Tech (7:15 p.m., ESPNU)
The Hokies have looked pretty good this year, especially on offense. They really haven't played anyone, though, and were only seriously challenged in one of their first five games. Iowa is expected to contend for an NCAA bid this year. They have already lost to Wichita State. At the beginning of the year I probably would have picked Iowa but I'll go with the home team.
Pick: Virginia Tech
Minnesota at Florida State (7:15 p.m., ESPN2)
Florida State has rebounded from their first game loss to win four in a row, including wins against BYU and St. Joe's. Minnesota has also played solidly, beating Memphis and Stanford, with their only loss to Duke. This could be one of the best games of the challenge. I'm not quite buying into Florida State yet. I think the Gophers make a late basket to steal one.
Pick: Minnesota
N.C. State at Michigan (7:30 p.m., ESPN)
This was the marquee game of the challenge in my opinion at the start of the year. Now I think it's a pretty easy Michigan win. N.C. State has really struggled to stop anybody in their last two games, and John Beilein's team is rolling. The Wolverines could win this one by double digits.
Pick: Michigan
Maryland at Northwestern (9:15 p.m., ESPN2)
Northwestern is a tricky place to play. The Wildcats usually start out the season well, then fade late in the year. They are undefeated this year, but their best win is against TCU. Coach Mark Turgeon was unhappy with Maryland's effort in their latest game against Georgia Southern, but I think the Terps have a significant edge in talent.
Pick: Maryland
Nebraska at Wake Forest (9:15 p.m., ESPNU)
Wake's best win last year was probably their road win at Nebraska. They should beat the Cornhuskers again this year. Nebraska is a team in transition, with a new coach, and in their last game they lost to Kent State by 14. This is in the running for ugliest game of the challenge.
Pick: Wake Forest
North Carolina at Indiana (9:30 p.m., ESPN)
North Carolina is still trying to figure out its rotation, and they have a monumental challenge here. Indiana hasn't really been playing like the #1 team in the country, but you have to believe they will bring their best at home against the Tar Heels. This one could get out of hand early.
Pick: Indiana
Wednesday:
Virginia at Wisconsin (7:00 p.m., ESPN2)
Wisconsin is a very tough place to play, and the Badgers have another solid team. Coach Bo Ryan's squad is 4-2, but their losses are to Florida and Creighton. Virginia has been playing better, but they don't have the horses to win on the road in Madison.
Pick: Wisconsin
Purdue at Clemson (7:15 p.m., ESPNU)
This may not be the prettiest game, but it is an intriguing matchup. This is definitely not the same quality Purdue team as we've come to expect. They have already lost to Bucknell, Villanova and Oregon State. Clemson struggles to score at times, but I give them the slight edge because they are at home.
Pick: Clemson
Michigan State at Miami (7:30 p.m., ESPN)
It says a lot about the expectations for Miami this year that they got a big time matchup against the Spartans. Michigan State has struggled a little bit so far this year, but then again so has Miami. The Hurricanes will have a tough time dealing with a team that has the experience and coaching of Michigan State. If they had a more hostile home environment, I would be inclined to pick them. But I like the Spartans.
Pick: Michigan State
Georgia Tech at Illinois (9:00 p.m., ESPN2)
Georgia Tech did pick up that nice win over St. Mary's, but they will have a tough road challenge in Champaign. Illinois is 7-0, coming off that surprising Maui Invitational title. They are scoring a lot of points, and the Yellow Jackets will be hard pressed to keep up with them. If Georgia Tech can keep the game in the 60s they have a chance.
Pick: Illinois
Boston College at Penn State (9:15 p.m., ESPNU)
If you are looking to spend two hours being tortured, watch this game. It seems like BC and Penn State play each other every year in this challenge. And this game might not make it out of the 40s. Penn State certainly isn't great. They lost to Akron by 25. But I can't bring myself to pick Boston College to win a road game.
Pick: Penn State
Ohio State at Duke (9:30 p.m., ESPN)
We've saved the best game for last. Ohio State is always good, and really took it to the Blue Devils at home last year. Duke, meanwhile, is off to a great start. I have seen Duke completely blow out teams in this situation before. I don't think the Buckeyes will go that easily. But I do think Duke pulls off another big win.
Pick: Duke
If you're keeping score at home, I have the Big Ten winning the challenge once again, this time by a score of 7-5.
Friday, November 23, 2012
Thanksgiving Weekend Preview
Hope everyone had a good Thanksgiving, and it's a great time of year to watch some college basketball. Let's start with what's happened so far this week. The Maui Invitational did not go quite as planned. For North Carolina, they easily moved past a bad Mississippi State team, and got Butler in the second round. In a surprise, Butler blew out North Carolina, up by 20 or more for most of the game. That left the Heels to play Chaminade in a game that was not competitive. If you are North Carolina, you can't be too happy, in that you lost your only game against a team that was even a little bit of a challenge.
Boston College and Wake Forest got much needed wins, albeit against not the best competition. BC beat Auburn at home by one point, and Wake Forest won in the Paradise Jam against Mercer.
Duke, Clemson and Georgia Tech all started out tournament play on Thursday. Duke had a strong win against Minnesota, and continues to look like the best team in the ACC so far. They will take on VCU tonight, a game that should bring back bad memories for Duke fans of Eric Maynor in the NCAA Tournament. If Duke can win, they will likely play Louisville in what could be a very compelling final at the Battle 4 Atlantis.
Clemson had a tough draw in the Old Spice Classic, taking on the best team in the field in Gonzaga. They kept it close for much of the game before losing by eight. The road will get easier for the Tigers, against UTEP on Friday and against either Marist or Vanderbilt in the finals.
Georgia Tech beat Rice convincingly, and will have a much stiffer test Friday against Cal. Their final game in Anaheim will be against either St. Mary's or Pacific.
There are a couple of other interesting games on the weekend schedule. Wake Forest plays host to William and Mary on Friday. That's the kind of game that Wake has lost in the past couple years that they really need to win. On Saturday, Miami hosts Detroit, a very solid mid-major team that should be the favorite to win the Horizon League.
Enjoy the games and I'll be back Monday for a preview of the ACC/Big Ten Challenge.
Boston College and Wake Forest got much needed wins, albeit against not the best competition. BC beat Auburn at home by one point, and Wake Forest won in the Paradise Jam against Mercer.
Duke, Clemson and Georgia Tech all started out tournament play on Thursday. Duke had a strong win against Minnesota, and continues to look like the best team in the ACC so far. They will take on VCU tonight, a game that should bring back bad memories for Duke fans of Eric Maynor in the NCAA Tournament. If Duke can win, they will likely play Louisville in what could be a very compelling final at the Battle 4 Atlantis.
Clemson had a tough draw in the Old Spice Classic, taking on the best team in the field in Gonzaga. They kept it close for much of the game before losing by eight. The road will get easier for the Tigers, against UTEP on Friday and against either Marist or Vanderbilt in the finals.
Georgia Tech beat Rice convincingly, and will have a much stiffer test Friday against Cal. Their final game in Anaheim will be against either St. Mary's or Pacific.
There are a couple of other interesting games on the weekend schedule. Wake Forest plays host to William and Mary on Friday. That's the kind of game that Wake has lost in the past couple years that they really need to win. On Saturday, Miami hosts Detroit, a very solid mid-major team that should be the favorite to win the Horizon League.
Enjoy the games and I'll be back Monday for a preview of the ACC/Big Ten Challenge.
Monday, November 19, 2012
ACC Update: 11/19
It was a pretty rough weekend for the ACC. That was never more evident than in N.C. State's game with Oklahoma State. The Wolfpack looked outclassed from the beginning and ended up losing by 20 points! That's pretty pathetic when you are supposed to be the best team in the conference. Especially since N.C. State had played pretty well up until then. It was also a rough weekend for the presumed bottom dwellers, Boston College and Wake Forest. After holding up pretty well against UConn, Wake was down 30 points (!) in the first half to Iona, and ended up losing by 26. Boston College lost to Dayton by 16 points, and then lost to the College of Charleston in the 7th Place game.
The one team that did perform well was Florida State. They rebounded in a big way from their opening game loss to South Alabama by blowing out BYU and knocking off St. Joe's. Those were both games that Florida State could have lost.
Thanksgiving week means a lot of early-season tournaments and some good tests for our ACC teams. First off, Wake Forest takes on Mercer in the final round of the Paradise Jam. To put it plainly, Wake needs to win this game.
North Carolina is in the Maui Invitational this year (seems like it's almost always either Carolina or Duke). Here's how the bracket shakes out: their first game is Monday against Mississippi State, one of the worst teams in the SEC. Their next game will either be against Butler or Marquette on Tuesday (if I had to pick I would say Marquette). The last game would likely be against either Texas or Illinois. This isn't the strongest Maui field, and I think the winner of the potential North Carolina/Marquette game will take it all.
Later this week, Duke, Clemson and Georgia Tech will be in early-season tournaments. On Thursday Duke plays Minnesota and Clemson plays Gonzaga, both tough games. I'll be back after Thanksgiving to update those tournaments.
One other game of note on the schedule this week: Boston College plays host to Auburn on Wednesday. Auburn is one of the worst teams in the big six conferences, and BC needs to win that game to regain a little respectability.
The one team that did perform well was Florida State. They rebounded in a big way from their opening game loss to South Alabama by blowing out BYU and knocking off St. Joe's. Those were both games that Florida State could have lost.
Thanksgiving week means a lot of early-season tournaments and some good tests for our ACC teams. First off, Wake Forest takes on Mercer in the final round of the Paradise Jam. To put it plainly, Wake needs to win this game.
North Carolina is in the Maui Invitational this year (seems like it's almost always either Carolina or Duke). Here's how the bracket shakes out: their first game is Monday against Mississippi State, one of the worst teams in the SEC. Their next game will either be against Butler or Marquette on Tuesday (if I had to pick I would say Marquette). The last game would likely be against either Texas or Illinois. This isn't the strongest Maui field, and I think the winner of the potential North Carolina/Marquette game will take it all.
Later this week, Duke, Clemson and Georgia Tech will be in early-season tournaments. On Thursday Duke plays Minnesota and Clemson plays Gonzaga, both tough games. I'll be back after Thanksgiving to update those tournaments.
One other game of note on the schedule this week: Boston College plays host to Auburn on Wednesday. Auburn is one of the worst teams in the big six conferences, and BC needs to win that game to regain a little respectability.
Friday, November 16, 2012
Weekend Preview
Non-conference season is kicking into high gear, and some ACC teams have interesting games. First, a look at what's happened in the last few days: the conference got a big win Tuesday night when Duke was able to get past Kentucky. That offset a couple of bad losses. Virginia lost at home to Delaware, their second loss to a CAA team this year. And Miami lost on the road to Florida Gulf Coast. Why they are playing Florida Gulf Coast on the road is beyond me. The Miami loss is a more damaging one, because if they end up on the bubble this could come back to bite them.
Boston College actually was quite competitive yesterday against Baylor, giving their fans hope that they might not be a cellar-dweller this year. Ryan Anderson could be a very strong player for them. N.C. State got a pretty easy win against Penn State as expected in Puerto Rico, and move on to face stiffer competition. Right now seven ACC teams are still undefeated, although Duke is the only one that has really faced tough competition.
Now to this weekend. There are a whopping eight games involving ACC teams on Friday, and some of them are good ones.
Let's start with N.C. State. They take on UMass on Friday afternoon. UMass already has decent wins over Harvard and Providence. If N.C. State can win Friday, they will play the winner of Tennessee and Oklahoma State in the Championship Game on Sunday. Both Tennessee and Oklahoma State should be competing for NCAA bids this year, so that will be a good barometer game for State.
Boston College is taking on Dayton Friday afternoon. That should be a good battle and a game that BC can definitely win. Their next game is on Sunday against either Auburn or Charleston. Both teams did not look good in their first games. What's interesting is BC has another game scheduled at home against Auburn on Wednesday, so they could end up playing the Tigers twice in a week.
Wake Forest is taking part in the Paradise Jam in the Virgin Islands this weekend. They have a tough draw, having to play the best team in the tournament in the first game: UConn. That game is Friday evening. If they lose, which is likely, they will play the loser of Quinnipiac and Iona on Saturday. I'm guessing that will be Quinnipiac, a team Wake should beat. The final game of the tournament is not until Monday.
Florida State is playing in the Coaches vs. Cancer Classic this weekend, a prestigious event with good teams. And the Seminoles really need to play well, after their first game loss to South Alabama. They take on BYU on Friday night, a team that is expected to be in the NCAAs this year. Their second game is on Saturday, against either St. Joseph's or Notre Dame. St. Joseph's is predicted to finish in the top two of the Atlantic 10 this year, so they are no slouch. Florida State cannot afford to go 0-2 this weekend.
On more game of note on the schedule Friday night: UNC plays at Long Beach State, on their way to the Maui Invitational. Long Beach State is the best team in their league and will definitely pose a challenge for the Tar Heels. You have to stay up late to see that one: it doesn't tip off until 11:00 p.m.
Boston College actually was quite competitive yesterday against Baylor, giving their fans hope that they might not be a cellar-dweller this year. Ryan Anderson could be a very strong player for them. N.C. State got a pretty easy win against Penn State as expected in Puerto Rico, and move on to face stiffer competition. Right now seven ACC teams are still undefeated, although Duke is the only one that has really faced tough competition.
Now to this weekend. There are a whopping eight games involving ACC teams on Friday, and some of them are good ones.
Let's start with N.C. State. They take on UMass on Friday afternoon. UMass already has decent wins over Harvard and Providence. If N.C. State can win Friday, they will play the winner of Tennessee and Oklahoma State in the Championship Game on Sunday. Both Tennessee and Oklahoma State should be competing for NCAA bids this year, so that will be a good barometer game for State.
Boston College is taking on Dayton Friday afternoon. That should be a good battle and a game that BC can definitely win. Their next game is on Sunday against either Auburn or Charleston. Both teams did not look good in their first games. What's interesting is BC has another game scheduled at home against Auburn on Wednesday, so they could end up playing the Tigers twice in a week.
Wake Forest is taking part in the Paradise Jam in the Virgin Islands this weekend. They have a tough draw, having to play the best team in the tournament in the first game: UConn. That game is Friday evening. If they lose, which is likely, they will play the loser of Quinnipiac and Iona on Saturday. I'm guessing that will be Quinnipiac, a team Wake should beat. The final game of the tournament is not until Monday.
Florida State is playing in the Coaches vs. Cancer Classic this weekend, a prestigious event with good teams. And the Seminoles really need to play well, after their first game loss to South Alabama. They take on BYU on Friday night, a team that is expected to be in the NCAAs this year. Their second game is on Saturday, against either St. Joseph's or Notre Dame. St. Joseph's is predicted to finish in the top two of the Atlantic 10 this year, so they are no slouch. Florida State cannot afford to go 0-2 this weekend.
On more game of note on the schedule Friday night: UNC plays at Long Beach State, on their way to the Maui Invitational. Long Beach State is the best team in their league and will definitely pose a challenge for the Tar Heels. You have to stay up late to see that one: it doesn't tip off until 11:00 p.m.
Monday, November 12, 2012
First Weekend Thoughts
The first weekend of the college basketball season is in the books. Every team except Clemson has played at least one game (UNC has played two). For the most part, the conference escaped disaster. The one notable exception is Florida State. They had a bad home loss against South Alabama, a team that went 8-8 in the Sun Belt last year. I had Florida State taking a step backward this year, and they are not off to a good start. It's just one game, though, and they had some head-scratching losses last year, so it's not time to panic yet.
Without question the team that impressed me the most was Maryland. Yes, they were one of three ACC teams to lose this weekend. But they had a very good chance of beating Kentucky. This Terps team has a lot of talent, and Alex Len looks like he could have a breakout year. The other team to lose was Virginia, on the road at George Mason. It's a game you'd like to win over a team from the CAA, but Virginia was down two starters, so I give them a pass. All of the teams in the ACC who won did so against teams from lesser conferences.
The competition gets a little stiffer this week, as several teams are playing in early-season tournaments. On Thursday, Boston College takes on Baylor and N.C. State plays Penn State. Duke plays a neutral site game against Kentucky on Tuesday night, which should be a dandy. It's a big week for the ACC, they need to prove that they can win games against teams from the other big six conferences (so far they are 0-1).
Without question the team that impressed me the most was Maryland. Yes, they were one of three ACC teams to lose this weekend. But they had a very good chance of beating Kentucky. This Terps team has a lot of talent, and Alex Len looks like he could have a breakout year. The other team to lose was Virginia, on the road at George Mason. It's a game you'd like to win over a team from the CAA, but Virginia was down two starters, so I give them a pass. All of the teams in the ACC who won did so against teams from lesser conferences.
The competition gets a little stiffer this week, as several teams are playing in early-season tournaments. On Thursday, Boston College takes on Baylor and N.C. State plays Penn State. Duke plays a neutral site game against Kentucky on Tuesday night, which should be a dandy. It's a big week for the ACC, they need to prove that they can win games against teams from the other big six conferences (so far they are 0-1).
Saturday, November 10, 2012
Season Preview: #1 Duke
Games against 2012 NCAA Tournament teams: 11
Games against ACC top 4: 6
Games against ACC bottom 4: 7
Best non-conference game: 11/13 vs. Kentucky (in Atlanta)
Projected Starting Five:
F - Mason Plumlee (Senior)
F - Ryan Kelly (Senior)
F - Josh Hairston (Junior)
G - Seth Curry (Senior)
G - Tyler Thornton (Junior)
Most people are predicting that N.C. State will win the conference title this year. I went in a different direction. My main reason: 2003. That's the last year that someone other than Duke or North Carolina won the conference title outright. Until someone knocks off both of them, I'm not going to predict that it will happen. So what does Duke have? They have a very veteran team that is looking to rebound from an extremely embarrassing NCAA Tournament loss to #15 seed Lehigh.
I think Duke's best player is probably Ryan Kelly. Just see how they played without him at the end of last year. Kelly is a very dangerous weapon as a 4 with the ability to knock down threes. The rest of the starting five is really solid as well. Mason Plumlee can put up big numbers, and will have to down low. Seth Curry has a ton of promise and if he gets more consistent he could be the team's leading scorer. Expect this starting lineup to change some as the year goes on too, because talented freshmen like Amile Jefferson could break in.
Duke almost always plays the toughest non-conference schedule in the league. This year is no exception. They have an early season game against Kentucky that should be a dandy. It's odd to see Duke in the Battle 4 Atlantis, because they are almost always in Maui or the preseason NIT. But they will have to navigate a strong field there. A January 12th game at N.C. State is one all ACC fans should mark on their calendars.
One thing that will change for Duke this year is I have to believe they will be better at home. Maybe the weirdest stat in the ACC last year was that Duke lost three home games and didn't lose a road game in conference. They don't really have that superstar player that they've had a lot over the past two decades. But the collection of players should be battle tested enough to rise to the top of the ACC when the dust settles.
Games against ACC top 4: 6
Games against ACC bottom 4: 7
Best non-conference game: 11/13 vs. Kentucky (in Atlanta)
Projected Starting Five:
F - Mason Plumlee (Senior)
F - Ryan Kelly (Senior)
F - Josh Hairston (Junior)
G - Seth Curry (Senior)
G - Tyler Thornton (Junior)
Most people are predicting that N.C. State will win the conference title this year. I went in a different direction. My main reason: 2003. That's the last year that someone other than Duke or North Carolina won the conference title outright. Until someone knocks off both of them, I'm not going to predict that it will happen. So what does Duke have? They have a very veteran team that is looking to rebound from an extremely embarrassing NCAA Tournament loss to #15 seed Lehigh.
I think Duke's best player is probably Ryan Kelly. Just see how they played without him at the end of last year. Kelly is a very dangerous weapon as a 4 with the ability to knock down threes. The rest of the starting five is really solid as well. Mason Plumlee can put up big numbers, and will have to down low. Seth Curry has a ton of promise and if he gets more consistent he could be the team's leading scorer. Expect this starting lineup to change some as the year goes on too, because talented freshmen like Amile Jefferson could break in.
Duke almost always plays the toughest non-conference schedule in the league. This year is no exception. They have an early season game against Kentucky that should be a dandy. It's odd to see Duke in the Battle 4 Atlantis, because they are almost always in Maui or the preseason NIT. But they will have to navigate a strong field there. A January 12th game at N.C. State is one all ACC fans should mark on their calendars.
One thing that will change for Duke this year is I have to believe they will be better at home. Maybe the weirdest stat in the ACC last year was that Duke lost three home games and didn't lose a road game in conference. They don't really have that superstar player that they've had a lot over the past two decades. But the collection of players should be battle tested enough to rise to the top of the ACC when the dust settles.
Friday, November 09, 2012
Season Preview: #2 N.C. State
Games against 2012 NCAA Tournament teams: 12
Games against ACC top 4: 5
Games against ACC bottom 4: 7
Best non-conference game: 11/27 at Michigan
Projected Starting Five:
F - Richard Howell (Senior)
F - C.J. Leslie (Junior)
F - Scott Wood (Senior)
G - Rodney Purvis (Freshman)
G - Lorenzo Brown (Junior)
The days of Sidney Lowe are long gone. Fans are abuzz about the possibilities in Raleigh this year, as N.C. State is coming off a Sweet 16 run and is poised to be better this year. Many people have them as the #1 team in the ACC this year. I do not, as I will explain in more detail in my Duke preview. Regardless, there is a lot to like about the Wolfpack this year.
Let's start with C.J. Leslie. The issue with him has not been talent. It has been drive and effort. Leslie has looked disinterested at times, but Coach Mark Gottfried got the best out of him this year. He is probably the best player in the conference. And he has plenty around him. Lorenzo Brown is an excellent point guard, a scorer and distributor who makes his teammates better. Richard Howell and Scott Wood are very solid players who are certainly capable of putting up 20 on any given night. And the Wolfpack bring in a great recruiting class, the best in the ACC, highlighted by Rodney Purvis. They certainly have the pieces to be an elite team.
N.C. State has put together an interesting schedule. They are in the Puerto Rico Tip-Off, which they can certainly win. They also go to Michigan and have a neutral site game against UConn. They have a very manageable start to the conference season, and a lot of games against teams predicted to be at the bottom.
I certainly think N.C. State will have a very good year, their best in a long time. They should be able to beat people on talent alone, even if they don't have their A game. I do wonder whether they will be able to carry that chip on their shoulder that did so well last year. They will be the favorite in most of their games, so Coach Gottfried might have to take a different motivational tactic. It's interesting when you look at his career, he has not had a lot of success in the NCAA Tournament. The best regular season teams he had at Alabama went out in the first or second round of the NCAAs. So he needs to find a way to carry the team's success into March, so they can at least make it back to the Sweet 16.
Games against ACC top 4: 5
Games against ACC bottom 4: 7
Best non-conference game: 11/27 at Michigan
Projected Starting Five:
F - Richard Howell (Senior)
F - C.J. Leslie (Junior)
F - Scott Wood (Senior)
G - Rodney Purvis (Freshman)
G - Lorenzo Brown (Junior)
The days of Sidney Lowe are long gone. Fans are abuzz about the possibilities in Raleigh this year, as N.C. State is coming off a Sweet 16 run and is poised to be better this year. Many people have them as the #1 team in the ACC this year. I do not, as I will explain in more detail in my Duke preview. Regardless, there is a lot to like about the Wolfpack this year.
Let's start with C.J. Leslie. The issue with him has not been talent. It has been drive and effort. Leslie has looked disinterested at times, but Coach Mark Gottfried got the best out of him this year. He is probably the best player in the conference. And he has plenty around him. Lorenzo Brown is an excellent point guard, a scorer and distributor who makes his teammates better. Richard Howell and Scott Wood are very solid players who are certainly capable of putting up 20 on any given night. And the Wolfpack bring in a great recruiting class, the best in the ACC, highlighted by Rodney Purvis. They certainly have the pieces to be an elite team.
N.C. State has put together an interesting schedule. They are in the Puerto Rico Tip-Off, which they can certainly win. They also go to Michigan and have a neutral site game against UConn. They have a very manageable start to the conference season, and a lot of games against teams predicted to be at the bottom.
I certainly think N.C. State will have a very good year, their best in a long time. They should be able to beat people on talent alone, even if they don't have their A game. I do wonder whether they will be able to carry that chip on their shoulder that did so well last year. They will be the favorite in most of their games, so Coach Gottfried might have to take a different motivational tactic. It's interesting when you look at his career, he has not had a lot of success in the NCAA Tournament. The best regular season teams he had at Alabama went out in the first or second round of the NCAAs. So he needs to find a way to carry the team's success into March, so they can at least make it back to the Sweet 16.
Thursday, November 08, 2012
Season Preview: #3 North Carolina
Games against 2012 NCAA Tournament teams: 12
Games against ACC top 4: 6
Games against ACC bottom 4: 5
Best non-conference game: 11/27 at Indiana
Projected Starting Five:
F - Desmond Hubert (Sophomore)
F - James Michael McAdoo (Sophomore)
G - Reggie Bullock (Junior)
G - Dexter Strickland (Senior)
G - Marcus Paige (Freshman)
This is a reloading year in Chapel Hill, after losing so many talented players to the NBA Draft. It was a surprise that they didn't win it all last year, but a lot of that had to do with injuries that came up late in the season. Tyler Zeller, Harrison Barnes, John Henson and Kendall Marshall are all gone. All extremely talented players. It's hard to lose that much talent and not expect a dip the next year.
But I don't think that dip will be too far. If you look at their lineup this year, it's still more talented than the majority of teams in the league. James Michael McAdoo is poised to be a star, a first team all-ACC player, and someone who can really fill up the stat sheet. Reggie Bullock came up big in games later in the year, and can be the second best player on the team. They do get a boost as Dexter Strickland and Leslie McDonald are back from injury. I think the potential weak point is down low. Desmond Hubert was not great last year, and does not have a lot of size. They could struggle against teams that have a lot of strong frontcourt players.
The schedule is very tough, as it usually is with North Carolina. They play five games in a row away from Chapel Hill early in the year, including the Maui Invitational and a road game against preseason #1 Indiana. They also have a road game at Texas and host a UNLV team that beat them last year. Then, in the conference, they play two games each against Duke, NC State and Miami.
Despite all the losses and the tough schedule, I still think North Carolina can compete for a league title this year. They have the talent - it's just a matter of getting all their inexperienced players to play together. They will lose some games, but don't be surprised if at the end of the day they have a 12-6 or 13-5 conference record and a #3 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Games against ACC top 4: 6
Games against ACC bottom 4: 5
Best non-conference game: 11/27 at Indiana
Projected Starting Five:
F - Desmond Hubert (Sophomore)
F - James Michael McAdoo (Sophomore)
G - Reggie Bullock (Junior)
G - Dexter Strickland (Senior)
G - Marcus Paige (Freshman)
This is a reloading year in Chapel Hill, after losing so many talented players to the NBA Draft. It was a surprise that they didn't win it all last year, but a lot of that had to do with injuries that came up late in the season. Tyler Zeller, Harrison Barnes, John Henson and Kendall Marshall are all gone. All extremely talented players. It's hard to lose that much talent and not expect a dip the next year.
But I don't think that dip will be too far. If you look at their lineup this year, it's still more talented than the majority of teams in the league. James Michael McAdoo is poised to be a star, a first team all-ACC player, and someone who can really fill up the stat sheet. Reggie Bullock came up big in games later in the year, and can be the second best player on the team. They do get a boost as Dexter Strickland and Leslie McDonald are back from injury. I think the potential weak point is down low. Desmond Hubert was not great last year, and does not have a lot of size. They could struggle against teams that have a lot of strong frontcourt players.
The schedule is very tough, as it usually is with North Carolina. They play five games in a row away from Chapel Hill early in the year, including the Maui Invitational and a road game against preseason #1 Indiana. They also have a road game at Texas and host a UNLV team that beat them last year. Then, in the conference, they play two games each against Duke, NC State and Miami.
Despite all the losses and the tough schedule, I still think North Carolina can compete for a league title this year. They have the talent - it's just a matter of getting all their inexperienced players to play together. They will lose some games, but don't be surprised if at the end of the day they have a 12-6 or 13-5 conference record and a #3 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Wednesday, November 07, 2012
Season Preview: #4 Miami
Games against 2012 NCAA Tournament teams: 10
Games against ACC top 4: 5
Games against ACC bottom 4: 7
Best non-conference game: 11/28 vs. Michigan State
Projected Starting Five:
C - Reggie Johnson (Senior)
F - Kenny Kadji (Senior)
F - Trey McKinney Jones (Senior)
G - Durand Scott (Senior)
G - Shane Larkin (Sophomore)
The first thing you see when you look at Miami is experience. Four seniors in the starting lineup. The second is their coach, Jim Larranaga. I have been high on him since I saw him at many George Mason games over the years. I think he's got what it takes to get the program over the hump that they couldn't get over during Frank Haith's tenure. Miami was very close last year to making the NCAA Tournament. And if it weren't for some injuries they might have made it.
This year's team will be led by Reggie Johnson. Johnson is a great talent who struggled some last year after having to sit out much of the first half of the season. If he can stay in shape and active in the game, he can be the best center in the conference. Kenny Kadji really played strong in Johnson's absence, and if these two can play together they can form a formidable frontcourt. I also like Shane Larkin, who can score from the point and distribute.
Miami has one of the stronger schedules in the conference. They have a great home game against Michigan State in the ACC/Big 10 Challenge. They also have sneaky tough road games at UMass and UCF before going to Hawaii for the Diamond Head Classic. Their conference schedule is manageable, and look out for the Hurricanes late in the year. In their last six games, only a road trip at Duke is a game they should lose.
I'm pretty high on the Hurricanes this year, as you can see by the fact that I picked them to finish fourth. I think they have the combination of talent and coaching to give the other teams fits. They may struggle some early in the year, but they should be peaking in March, and carry momentum into their first NCAA Tournament in a while.
Games against ACC top 4: 5
Games against ACC bottom 4: 7
Best non-conference game: 11/28 vs. Michigan State
Projected Starting Five:
C - Reggie Johnson (Senior)
F - Kenny Kadji (Senior)
F - Trey McKinney Jones (Senior)
G - Durand Scott (Senior)
G - Shane Larkin (Sophomore)
The first thing you see when you look at Miami is experience. Four seniors in the starting lineup. The second is their coach, Jim Larranaga. I have been high on him since I saw him at many George Mason games over the years. I think he's got what it takes to get the program over the hump that they couldn't get over during Frank Haith's tenure. Miami was very close last year to making the NCAA Tournament. And if it weren't for some injuries they might have made it.
This year's team will be led by Reggie Johnson. Johnson is a great talent who struggled some last year after having to sit out much of the first half of the season. If he can stay in shape and active in the game, he can be the best center in the conference. Kenny Kadji really played strong in Johnson's absence, and if these two can play together they can form a formidable frontcourt. I also like Shane Larkin, who can score from the point and distribute.
Miami has one of the stronger schedules in the conference. They have a great home game against Michigan State in the ACC/Big 10 Challenge. They also have sneaky tough road games at UMass and UCF before going to Hawaii for the Diamond Head Classic. Their conference schedule is manageable, and look out for the Hurricanes late in the year. In their last six games, only a road trip at Duke is a game they should lose.
I'm pretty high on the Hurricanes this year, as you can see by the fact that I picked them to finish fourth. I think they have the combination of talent and coaching to give the other teams fits. They may struggle some early in the year, but they should be peaking in March, and carry momentum into their first NCAA Tournament in a while.
Monday, November 05, 2012
Season Preview: #5 Florida State
Games against 2012 NCAA Tournament teams: 9
Games against ACC top 4: 7
Games against ACC bottom 4: 5
Best non-conference game: 12/5 vs. Florida
Projected Starting Five:
C - Kiel Turpin (Junior)
F - Terrance Shannon (Junior)
F - Okaro White (Junior)
G - Michael Snaer (Senior)
G - Ian Miller (Junior)
It was an interesting year for Florida State. After struggling early, they hit their stride in the conference season and excelled. The Seminoles found a way to win late in games with clutch shots and used that momentum to a first ever ACC Tournament championship. With that goal reached, though, it appeared they were either tired or thought they could coast in the NCAA Tournament. They ended up being bounced in their second game by Cincinnati.
This year's team will look different in the frontcourt. Bernard James and Xavier Gibson are gone. So are Luke Loucks and Deividas Dulkys, who were seemingly at FSU forever. The strength of this team is back, though, in Michael Snaer. Snaer had a flair for the dramatic last year, with two buzzer-beating game winners. He was also a standout scorer and the team's second-leading assist man. Snear forms a solid backcourt with Ian Miller, who improved as the season went on. The frontcourt has a few more question marks. Kiel Turpin is a transfer from Lincoln College. Terrance Shannon is coming off an injury. And Okaro White was only a part-time starter last year.
Florida State's schedule is pretty tough. They face BYU and potentially Notre Dame in the Coaches vs. Cancer Classic. They also have their annual matchup against a top 10-worthy Florida team. And their conference schedule is one of the toughest in the ACC. The start of their conference slate: at Clemson, at Maryland, vs. UNC, at Virginia.
I think in terms of conference play, Florida State hit its peak last year. They will still be a solid team this year, but so much of what they have been able to do in recent years has been because of their big bodies in the frontcourt. I'm not sure they have that this year, so the scoring will be much more reliant on the guard play. Snaer will keep this team in games they might otherwise lose. And I think they will get back to the NCAA Tournament. But it's not going to be another 12-4 type conference year.
Games against ACC top 4: 7
Games against ACC bottom 4: 5
Best non-conference game: 12/5 vs. Florida
Projected Starting Five:
C - Kiel Turpin (Junior)
F - Terrance Shannon (Junior)
F - Okaro White (Junior)
G - Michael Snaer (Senior)
G - Ian Miller (Junior)
It was an interesting year for Florida State. After struggling early, they hit their stride in the conference season and excelled. The Seminoles found a way to win late in games with clutch shots and used that momentum to a first ever ACC Tournament championship. With that goal reached, though, it appeared they were either tired or thought they could coast in the NCAA Tournament. They ended up being bounced in their second game by Cincinnati.
This year's team will look different in the frontcourt. Bernard James and Xavier Gibson are gone. So are Luke Loucks and Deividas Dulkys, who were seemingly at FSU forever. The strength of this team is back, though, in Michael Snaer. Snaer had a flair for the dramatic last year, with two buzzer-beating game winners. He was also a standout scorer and the team's second-leading assist man. Snear forms a solid backcourt with Ian Miller, who improved as the season went on. The frontcourt has a few more question marks. Kiel Turpin is a transfer from Lincoln College. Terrance Shannon is coming off an injury. And Okaro White was only a part-time starter last year.
Florida State's schedule is pretty tough. They face BYU and potentially Notre Dame in the Coaches vs. Cancer Classic. They also have their annual matchup against a top 10-worthy Florida team. And their conference schedule is one of the toughest in the ACC. The start of their conference slate: at Clemson, at Maryland, vs. UNC, at Virginia.
I think in terms of conference play, Florida State hit its peak last year. They will still be a solid team this year, but so much of what they have been able to do in recent years has been because of their big bodies in the frontcourt. I'm not sure they have that this year, so the scoring will be much more reliant on the guard play. Snaer will keep this team in games they might otherwise lose. And I think they will get back to the NCAA Tournament. But it's not going to be another 12-4 type conference year.
Wednesday, October 31, 2012
Season Preview: #6 Maryland
Games against 2012 NCAA Tournament teams: 10
Games against ACC top 4: 6
Games against ACC bottom 4: 7
Best non-conference game: 11/9 vs. Kentucky (in Brooklyn)
Projected Starting Five:
C - Alex Len (Sophomore)
F - James Padgett (Senior)
G - Dez Wells (Sophomore)
G - Pe'Shon Howard (Junior)
G - Nick Faust (Sophomore)
There has been a little bit of a lull the last few years in College Park, with the lack of success by both the football and basketball teams. I think at least in basketball, things are looking up though. Last year Maryland brought in Mark Turgeon to follow in the big footsteps of Gary Williams, and he did pretty well. The team didn't make the tournament, but they showed signs of progress as the year went on. Last year a young Maryland team struggled on the road, getting five of their six conference wins at home. They move into this season with one big departure, as Terrell Stoglin opted to leave school early for the NBA Draft.
It remains to be seen whether the team could be better without him. Stoglin was a prolific scorer, but he also took entirely too many shots at times. Looking at who's left, the best player could certainly be Alex Len. Len had a lot of hype coming into his freshman year, and didn't have a great season. That may be unfair, though, as he missed the first half of the year. He's definitely capable of scoring more than six points per game this year. I also like Nick Faust, who really came on at the end of last year. There is a big question mark in that starting lineup, as right now Maryland is waiting to see if the NCAA will rule Dez Wells eligible to play this year. He is a transfer from Xavier who could be a big boost to this team.
The Terps start out their year with a bang against Kentucky. If there's ever a time to get the defending champs, it's in the first game, where the Wildcats are breaking in a whole new group of players. If Maryland can somehow pull the upset, that will look huge on their resume in March. After that, they have a stretch of 12 out of 14 games at home, almost all of those being against overmatched opponents.
Most Maryland fans are pretty high on Coach Turgeon, as he's had a strong record of success wherever he's been. I think he takes the Terps up to the next level this year with a solid nucleus of players. Even if Wells cannot play this year, they have enough balance between backcourt and frontcourt to beat a lot of the teams in this conference. I think the Terps will be right there on the bubble when Selection Sunday hits.
Games against ACC top 4: 6
Games against ACC bottom 4: 7
Best non-conference game: 11/9 vs. Kentucky (in Brooklyn)
Projected Starting Five:
C - Alex Len (Sophomore)
F - James Padgett (Senior)
G - Dez Wells (Sophomore)
G - Pe'Shon Howard (Junior)
G - Nick Faust (Sophomore)
There has been a little bit of a lull the last few years in College Park, with the lack of success by both the football and basketball teams. I think at least in basketball, things are looking up though. Last year Maryland brought in Mark Turgeon to follow in the big footsteps of Gary Williams, and he did pretty well. The team didn't make the tournament, but they showed signs of progress as the year went on. Last year a young Maryland team struggled on the road, getting five of their six conference wins at home. They move into this season with one big departure, as Terrell Stoglin opted to leave school early for the NBA Draft.
It remains to be seen whether the team could be better without him. Stoglin was a prolific scorer, but he also took entirely too many shots at times. Looking at who's left, the best player could certainly be Alex Len. Len had a lot of hype coming into his freshman year, and didn't have a great season. That may be unfair, though, as he missed the first half of the year. He's definitely capable of scoring more than six points per game this year. I also like Nick Faust, who really came on at the end of last year. There is a big question mark in that starting lineup, as right now Maryland is waiting to see if the NCAA will rule Dez Wells eligible to play this year. He is a transfer from Xavier who could be a big boost to this team.
The Terps start out their year with a bang against Kentucky. If there's ever a time to get the defending champs, it's in the first game, where the Wildcats are breaking in a whole new group of players. If Maryland can somehow pull the upset, that will look huge on their resume in March. After that, they have a stretch of 12 out of 14 games at home, almost all of those being against overmatched opponents.
Most Maryland fans are pretty high on Coach Turgeon, as he's had a strong record of success wherever he's been. I think he takes the Terps up to the next level this year with a solid nucleus of players. Even if Wells cannot play this year, they have enough balance between backcourt and frontcourt to beat a lot of the teams in this conference. I think the Terps will be right there on the bubble when Selection Sunday hits.
Tuesday, October 30, 2012
Season Preview: #7 Virginia
Games against 2012 NCAA Tournament teams: 8
Games against ACC top 4: 5
Games against ACC bottom 4: 7
Best non-conference game: 12/5 vs. Tennessee
Projected Starting Five:
F - Mike Tobey (Freshman)
F - Akil Mitchell (Junior)
F - Joe Harris (Junior)
G - Malcolm Brogdon (Sophomore)
G - Jontel Evans (Senior)
This is the year that we find out just how good a coach Tony Bennett is. Last year Virginia came in with pretty high expectations, and they met them. They started the season very well and ended up with a top four finish in the ACC and a berth in the NCAA Tournament. That was with the man that I thought should have been the ACC Player of the Year: Mike Scott. He's not there anymore.
One concerning aspect for Virginia fans is the way the team ended the season. It seemed like they ran out of gas, and ended with a very poor performance in the NCAA Tournament against Florida. Now you can say that they were pretty depleted - at times in the second half of the season they had basically a six man rotation. So how does this year's team look? They have two players that you know you can count on. Joe Harris finished second in scoring last year despite being banged up. He had the best three point percentage on the team. Jontel Evans was a very solid point guard, a great distributor and strong defender. He could make things happen, although he was not a great scorer. If Virginia is going to be good this year, they will have to count on some young players. Role players like Malcolm Brogdon and Akil Mitchell will have to step up and be more prominent scorers. They do have a pretty well received freshman class, led by Mike Tobey, who should get in the starting lineup right away.
Virginia starts out with an intriguing game, on the road at George Mason. After that they play a whole bunch of home games, but will play some challenging games. They are in the preseason NIT tournament, and have to travel to Wisconsin in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. The good thing for them is that their conference slate is one of the easiest. They only play Duke and N.C. State once, and play BC, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech twice.
It's pretty hard to predict how the Cavaliers will do because you just don't know how they will be able to perform without Mike Scott. They have a few decent players left, but they will be relying heavily on freshmen and sophomores. I think they will struggle in the non-conference, but they will be battle tested by the time they get to conference play. Coach Bennett's system will win some games. You have to think there will be a drop off this year, but they should be able to make the NIT.
Games against ACC top 4: 5
Games against ACC bottom 4: 7
Best non-conference game: 12/5 vs. Tennessee
Projected Starting Five:
F - Mike Tobey (Freshman)
F - Akil Mitchell (Junior)
F - Joe Harris (Junior)
G - Malcolm Brogdon (Sophomore)
G - Jontel Evans (Senior)
This is the year that we find out just how good a coach Tony Bennett is. Last year Virginia came in with pretty high expectations, and they met them. They started the season very well and ended up with a top four finish in the ACC and a berth in the NCAA Tournament. That was with the man that I thought should have been the ACC Player of the Year: Mike Scott. He's not there anymore.
One concerning aspect for Virginia fans is the way the team ended the season. It seemed like they ran out of gas, and ended with a very poor performance in the NCAA Tournament against Florida. Now you can say that they were pretty depleted - at times in the second half of the season they had basically a six man rotation. So how does this year's team look? They have two players that you know you can count on. Joe Harris finished second in scoring last year despite being banged up. He had the best three point percentage on the team. Jontel Evans was a very solid point guard, a great distributor and strong defender. He could make things happen, although he was not a great scorer. If Virginia is going to be good this year, they will have to count on some young players. Role players like Malcolm Brogdon and Akil Mitchell will have to step up and be more prominent scorers. They do have a pretty well received freshman class, led by Mike Tobey, who should get in the starting lineup right away.
Virginia starts out with an intriguing game, on the road at George Mason. After that they play a whole bunch of home games, but will play some challenging games. They are in the preseason NIT tournament, and have to travel to Wisconsin in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. The good thing for them is that their conference slate is one of the easiest. They only play Duke and N.C. State once, and play BC, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech twice.
It's pretty hard to predict how the Cavaliers will do because you just don't know how they will be able to perform without Mike Scott. They have a few decent players left, but they will be relying heavily on freshmen and sophomores. I think they will struggle in the non-conference, but they will be battle tested by the time they get to conference play. Coach Bennett's system will win some games. You have to think there will be a drop off this year, but they should be able to make the NIT.
Sunday, October 28, 2012
Season Preview: #8 Clemson
Games against 2012 NCAA Tournament teams: 10
Games against ACC top 4: 6
Games against ACC bottom 4: 7
Best non-conference game: 12/8 vs. Arizona
Projected Starting Five:
F - Devin Booker (Senior)
F - Milton Jennings (Senior)
F - K.J. McDaniels (Sophomore)
G - T.J. Sapp (Sophomore)
G - Rod Hall (Sophomore)
The team I missed on the most last year was Clemson. I really thought they had the pieces to finish in the top four of the ACC and go back to the NCAA Tournament. Instead, they really struggled in the non-conference, beat up on bad teams in conference play, and finished 7th. It's hard to say why Clemson struggled so much, because they had the same team pretty much from the year before. Most of their problems were offensively, and they struggled on the road (2-6 in conference).
Now they have to try to rebuild with a completely different backcourt. Tanner Smith and Andre Young are gone, the two leading scorers for this team last year. Coach Brad Brownell will turn to young, unproven players to run the show. T.J. Sapp and Rod Hall combined for about seven points and 32 minutes per game last year. The good news is Clemson retains its strong frontcourt. Devin Booker has proven to be not as good as his older brother but was a stabilizing force down low. Milton Jennings did not really live up to expectations last year, but should be good in his senior season. The wild card for me is K.J McDaniels, who showed flashes as a freshman of being a really good player. But he was very inconsistent, and didn't get many minutes.
Clemson has a very tough stretch in their non-conference schedule, where they have to play Gonzaga, Purdue, South Carolina and Arizona. If they can get through this with some good wins, I think they could be on the right track this year. They also have a tough start to the conference season, with their first two games against Florida State and Duke. But they only play UNC and Duke once each, and play a lot of games against teams at the bottom.
So how will Clemson do this year? I am not as high on them as I was last season. I think with a completely new backcourt it's going to take some time for them to adjust, and there will be some struggles. Besides Booker and Jennings, they are very young - all the rest of their players are either sophomores or freshmen. They will win some games because of their favorable conference schedule. But I don't see a return to the NCAA Tournament this year.
Games against ACC top 4: 6
Games against ACC bottom 4: 7
Best non-conference game: 12/8 vs. Arizona
Projected Starting Five:
F - Devin Booker (Senior)
F - Milton Jennings (Senior)
F - K.J. McDaniels (Sophomore)
G - T.J. Sapp (Sophomore)
G - Rod Hall (Sophomore)
The team I missed on the most last year was Clemson. I really thought they had the pieces to finish in the top four of the ACC and go back to the NCAA Tournament. Instead, they really struggled in the non-conference, beat up on bad teams in conference play, and finished 7th. It's hard to say why Clemson struggled so much, because they had the same team pretty much from the year before. Most of their problems were offensively, and they struggled on the road (2-6 in conference).
Now they have to try to rebuild with a completely different backcourt. Tanner Smith and Andre Young are gone, the two leading scorers for this team last year. Coach Brad Brownell will turn to young, unproven players to run the show. T.J. Sapp and Rod Hall combined for about seven points and 32 minutes per game last year. The good news is Clemson retains its strong frontcourt. Devin Booker has proven to be not as good as his older brother but was a stabilizing force down low. Milton Jennings did not really live up to expectations last year, but should be good in his senior season. The wild card for me is K.J McDaniels, who showed flashes as a freshman of being a really good player. But he was very inconsistent, and didn't get many minutes.
Clemson has a very tough stretch in their non-conference schedule, where they have to play Gonzaga, Purdue, South Carolina and Arizona. If they can get through this with some good wins, I think they could be on the right track this year. They also have a tough start to the conference season, with their first two games against Florida State and Duke. But they only play UNC and Duke once each, and play a lot of games against teams at the bottom.
So how will Clemson do this year? I am not as high on them as I was last season. I think with a completely new backcourt it's going to take some time for them to adjust, and there will be some struggles. Besides Booker and Jennings, they are very young - all the rest of their players are either sophomores or freshmen. They will win some games because of their favorable conference schedule. But I don't see a return to the NCAA Tournament this year.
Friday, October 26, 2012
Season Preview: #9 Georgia Tech
Games against 2012 NCAA Tournament teams: 8
Games against ACC top 4: 7
Games against ACC bottom 4: 5
Best non-conference game: 11/28 at Illinois
Projected Starting Five:
C - Daniel Miller (Senior)
F - Kammeon Holsey (Junior)
G - Jason Morris (Junior)
G - Brandon Reed (Junior)
G - Mfon Udofia (Senior)
Last year was a transition year for the Yellow Jackets. Besides having a new coach, they had no true home court. Alexander Memorial Coliseum (aka the Thrillerdome) was being renovated, so the team played most of its home games at Philips Arena, home of the Atlanta Hawks. And the team played like it. They had some games where the offense just looked awful, with multiple conference games under 40 points. The team also had a big problem when their best player, Glen Rice Jr., was suspended and then kicked off the team. That led to a 4-12 record and an 11th place finish.
Will we see improvement out of Georgia Tech this year? It's certainly possible. They have a lot of veteran players, starting with point guard Mfon Udofia. Udofia didn't really have the year that most people expected last year, but he was at a steady 9.9 points per game. He needs to improve his shooting though: 38% from the field and 32% from 3 won't cut it. I thought Kam Holsey showed a lot of promise at times last year, and is poised for a very good junior season. He can definitely be the team's best player. The rest of the team is mostly role players, so some of the five freshmen should get significant playing time this year.
There isn't much to write home about in the non-conference schedule. Georgia Tech plays in the DirecTV Classic in Anaheim (formerly the 76 Classic), which doesn't have a very strong field. Their ACC/Big Ten Challenge game is on the road at Illinois, then they have seven straight home games. The conference schedule is pretty tough. Their first three road games are at NC State, Duke and UNC.
Coach Brian Gregory has made strides defensively, but it remains to be seen if the Yellow Jackets can put up enough offense to win. They really need someone who can step up and knock down some threes to give them instant offense. If they can get that, they can put together some wins. I think this group will be a little more cohesive and has enough talent to move up a couple notches this year. Although they will not be good enough to make it on the bubble.
Games against ACC top 4: 7
Games against ACC bottom 4: 5
Best non-conference game: 11/28 at Illinois
Projected Starting Five:
C - Daniel Miller (Senior)
F - Kammeon Holsey (Junior)
G - Jason Morris (Junior)
G - Brandon Reed (Junior)
G - Mfon Udofia (Senior)
Last year was a transition year for the Yellow Jackets. Besides having a new coach, they had no true home court. Alexander Memorial Coliseum (aka the Thrillerdome) was being renovated, so the team played most of its home games at Philips Arena, home of the Atlanta Hawks. And the team played like it. They had some games where the offense just looked awful, with multiple conference games under 40 points. The team also had a big problem when their best player, Glen Rice Jr., was suspended and then kicked off the team. That led to a 4-12 record and an 11th place finish.
Will we see improvement out of Georgia Tech this year? It's certainly possible. They have a lot of veteran players, starting with point guard Mfon Udofia. Udofia didn't really have the year that most people expected last year, but he was at a steady 9.9 points per game. He needs to improve his shooting though: 38% from the field and 32% from 3 won't cut it. I thought Kam Holsey showed a lot of promise at times last year, and is poised for a very good junior season. He can definitely be the team's best player. The rest of the team is mostly role players, so some of the five freshmen should get significant playing time this year.
There isn't much to write home about in the non-conference schedule. Georgia Tech plays in the DirecTV Classic in Anaheim (formerly the 76 Classic), which doesn't have a very strong field. Their ACC/Big Ten Challenge game is on the road at Illinois, then they have seven straight home games. The conference schedule is pretty tough. Their first three road games are at NC State, Duke and UNC.
Coach Brian Gregory has made strides defensively, but it remains to be seen if the Yellow Jackets can put up enough offense to win. They really need someone who can step up and knock down some threes to give them instant offense. If they can get that, they can put together some wins. I think this group will be a little more cohesive and has enough talent to move up a couple notches this year. Although they will not be good enough to make it on the bubble.
Wednesday, October 24, 2012
Season Preview: #10 Virginia Tech
Games against 2012 NCAA Tournament teams: 10
Games against ACC top 4: 6
Games against ACC bottom 4: 5
Best non-conference game: 12/8 at West Virginia
Projected Starting Five:
F - Cadarian Raines (Junior)
F - C.J. Barksdale (Sophomore)
F - Jarell Eddie (Junior)
G - Robert Brown (Sophomore)
G - Erick Green (Senior)
The only first-year coach in the ACC resides in Blacksburg. And it's anyone's guess how James Johnson will do as coach. This is his first head coaching job, as most people know. So what does he inherit? A team that has talented players, including a potential ACC first teamer in Erick Green. But a team with not many bodies. The biggest blow in the offseason was the transfer of Dorian Finney-Smith. Finney-Smith didn't have the biggest freshman year, with a prolonged shooting slump in the middle of the season. But he was a great talent with a big upside. The Hokies also saw prized recruit Montrezl Harrell de-commit and go to Louisville, which certainly was tough.
Who returns? Green is a very steady presence, with a long streak last year of games in double digits. When no one else is making shots, he will. Cadarian Raines really came on at the end of last year, and is primed to have a big season. The lone freshman is Marshall Wood. I saw Wood play in high school last year: he can light up the scoreboard and if he puts on some weight can be a very effective power forward.
The Hokies have a pretty challenging schedule for a first year coach to navigate through. They don't have any particularly hard games in their first five. But they have road games at West Virginia and BYU, and a home game with potential NCAA team Oklahoma State. The conference schedule is definitely backloaded, with the last six including two games against Duke, one against Florida State and one against Miami.
What can we expect from the Hokies this year? It's hard to say. They have a starting five that is probably the most talented of the bottom six schools in the ACC. But they have no depth at all, and the Hokies have a history of significant injuries. One big injury and the season could be a disaster. I think if the team buys in to what Coach Johnson is selling, they could push for an NIT bid. But somewhere around a 10th place finish is the most likely spot.
Games against ACC top 4: 6
Games against ACC bottom 4: 5
Best non-conference game: 12/8 at West Virginia
Projected Starting Five:
F - Cadarian Raines (Junior)
F - C.J. Barksdale (Sophomore)
F - Jarell Eddie (Junior)
G - Robert Brown (Sophomore)
G - Erick Green (Senior)
The only first-year coach in the ACC resides in Blacksburg. And it's anyone's guess how James Johnson will do as coach. This is his first head coaching job, as most people know. So what does he inherit? A team that has talented players, including a potential ACC first teamer in Erick Green. But a team with not many bodies. The biggest blow in the offseason was the transfer of Dorian Finney-Smith. Finney-Smith didn't have the biggest freshman year, with a prolonged shooting slump in the middle of the season. But he was a great talent with a big upside. The Hokies also saw prized recruit Montrezl Harrell de-commit and go to Louisville, which certainly was tough.
Who returns? Green is a very steady presence, with a long streak last year of games in double digits. When no one else is making shots, he will. Cadarian Raines really came on at the end of last year, and is primed to have a big season. The lone freshman is Marshall Wood. I saw Wood play in high school last year: he can light up the scoreboard and if he puts on some weight can be a very effective power forward.
The Hokies have a pretty challenging schedule for a first year coach to navigate through. They don't have any particularly hard games in their first five. But they have road games at West Virginia and BYU, and a home game with potential NCAA team Oklahoma State. The conference schedule is definitely backloaded, with the last six including two games against Duke, one against Florida State and one against Miami.
What can we expect from the Hokies this year? It's hard to say. They have a starting five that is probably the most talented of the bottom six schools in the ACC. But they have no depth at all, and the Hokies have a history of significant injuries. One big injury and the season could be a disaster. I think if the team buys in to what Coach Johnson is selling, they could push for an NIT bid. But somewhere around a 10th place finish is the most likely spot.
Tuesday, October 23, 2012
Season Preview: #11 Wake Forest
Games against 2012 ACC Tournament teams: 10
Games against ACC top 4: 6
Games against ACC bottom 4: 6
Best non-conference game: 11/16 vs. Connecticut (at St. Thomas)
Projected Starting Five:
F - Devin Thomas (Freshman)
F - Travis McKie (Junior)
G - Chase Fischer (Sophomore)
G - C.J. Harris (Senior)
G - Codi Miller-McIntyre (Freshman)
Oh, Wake Forest. These last two years have not been very kind. Last season, I compiled a list of the worst 10 teams in the ACC in the last 10 years. Wake's team from two years ago was #1 on the list. Last year's team would have come in #10. So let's look at what happened last year. Wake got off to an okay start in the non-conference, with a couple wins over BCS conference teams. They started conference play with a home win over Virginia Tech, which at the time was playing well. After that, Wake lost 9 of their next 10 games. Eight of those losses were by double digits, four by at least 20 points. They rounded out the season playing a little better, and ended up 4-12 in conference.
Then came the end of the season, and the transfers started. People were jumping ship left and right. So where does that leave Wake Forest going into this critical third season of the Jeff Bzdelik era? They have three players returning who scored more than two points per game last year. Fortunately for them, two of those players are pretty good. C.J. Harris was close to being a star last year, and Travis McKie, despite not quite living up to his freshman season, was solid. Those two players will really have to carry the load for a team that is lacking in experience. There are seven freshmen on the roster this year. Some of them are pretty solid recruits, including the two that I penciled in to the starting lineup this year.
Wake's non-conference schedule isn't horrible. They will have an early season tournament game against UConn that should be a good barometer of where this team is early on. A road game at Richmond and home game against Seton Hall are the other highlights. Wake starts conference play at Duke, but then the next four games are all winnable. It's imperative that this team gets off to a good start. Because we've seen that once they start to spiral out of control, they can't get out of it.
I have been a critic of Coach Bzdelik from the start. It doesn't seem like his teams play with any energy, and I have a hard time finding what the team's identity is. They have solid players in Harris and McKie, which should keep them above Boston College in the standings. But it's hard to find many wins between the lack of past success and lack of experience in the lineup. I think Wake has to show continued improvement, with at least a 6-12 conference record, for Coach Bzdelik to keep his job. And that will be tough.
Games against ACC top 4: 6
Games against ACC bottom 4: 6
Best non-conference game: 11/16 vs. Connecticut (at St. Thomas)
Projected Starting Five:
F - Devin Thomas (Freshman)
F - Travis McKie (Junior)
G - Chase Fischer (Sophomore)
G - C.J. Harris (Senior)
G - Codi Miller-McIntyre (Freshman)
Oh, Wake Forest. These last two years have not been very kind. Last season, I compiled a list of the worst 10 teams in the ACC in the last 10 years. Wake's team from two years ago was #1 on the list. Last year's team would have come in #10. So let's look at what happened last year. Wake got off to an okay start in the non-conference, with a couple wins over BCS conference teams. They started conference play with a home win over Virginia Tech, which at the time was playing well. After that, Wake lost 9 of their next 10 games. Eight of those losses were by double digits, four by at least 20 points. They rounded out the season playing a little better, and ended up 4-12 in conference.
Then came the end of the season, and the transfers started. People were jumping ship left and right. So where does that leave Wake Forest going into this critical third season of the Jeff Bzdelik era? They have three players returning who scored more than two points per game last year. Fortunately for them, two of those players are pretty good. C.J. Harris was close to being a star last year, and Travis McKie, despite not quite living up to his freshman season, was solid. Those two players will really have to carry the load for a team that is lacking in experience. There are seven freshmen on the roster this year. Some of them are pretty solid recruits, including the two that I penciled in to the starting lineup this year.
Wake's non-conference schedule isn't horrible. They will have an early season tournament game against UConn that should be a good barometer of where this team is early on. A road game at Richmond and home game against Seton Hall are the other highlights. Wake starts conference play at Duke, but then the next four games are all winnable. It's imperative that this team gets off to a good start. Because we've seen that once they start to spiral out of control, they can't get out of it.
I have been a critic of Coach Bzdelik from the start. It doesn't seem like his teams play with any energy, and I have a hard time finding what the team's identity is. They have solid players in Harris and McKie, which should keep them above Boston College in the standings. But it's hard to find many wins between the lack of past success and lack of experience in the lineup. I think Wake has to show continued improvement, with at least a 6-12 conference record, for Coach Bzdelik to keep his job. And that will be tough.
Monday, October 22, 2012
Season Preview: #12 Boston College
A few notes before I get started talking about Boston College: I went through and did my preseason rankings, and then looked at each team's schedule. I counted how many games each team had against my top four in the ACC and how many they had against my bottom four. Obviously, Boston College would not have as many games against teams in the bottom four because they are one of those teams. So much of what you have to look at when deciding where teams are going to finish is who they play in the conference. Based on these numbers, Boston College actually has the toughest conference schedule of any ACC team. Virginia, NC State and Miami all have the easiest.
Ok, now to Boston College:
Games against 2012 NCAA Tournament teams: 10
Games against ACC top 4: 7
Games against ACC bottom 4: 4
Best non-conference game: 12/4 vs. Harvard
Projected Starting Five:
C - Dennis Clifford (Sophomore)
F - Ryan Anderson (Sophomore)
G - Patrick Heckmann (Sophomore)
G - Lonnie Jackson (Sophomore)
G - Jordan Daniels (Sophomore)
Interesting lineup there, with all five starters sophomores. So it's pretty obvious that BC just does not have ACC level talent right now. They were decimated before last year, and really struggled. It was a testament to how weak the ACC was that BC won nearly almost as many games in conference (4) that they won out of conference (5). I would guess that Coach Steve Donahue had more talent on some of his Cornell teams than he has right now.
There really was not one star on BC last year. Ryan Anderson led the team in scoring, but their top five scorers averaged between 8 and 12 points per game. I watched BC several times last year, and I couldn't tell you what Ryan Anderson looks like. That's the kind of team they have. Dennis Clifford was a nice surprise for them at times, but is pretty slow and unathletic. They bring in three freshmen, but none who were very highly rated, so this is largely the same team as last year. They did lose Matt Humphrey, who was their second highest scorer.
With pretty much the same team, it's natural to expect pretty much the same results. They face a tough start to the season, with a trip to the Charleston Classic and a first round game against Baylor. I think the key part of the season for them is in December. They have six home games, all of them winnable. They can't stub their toe and lose more than one of these games, like they did last year. They need to be able to build some confidence. That's because they have a very difficult conference slate, with two games each against NC State and Duke.
The other thing for BC is they have got to play better on the road. All of their conference wins last year came in the Conte Forum. I have thought that Coach Donahue was a solid coach, but you can only be so patient with him and he has to prove he can recruit on the ACC level. Looking at the talent that BC has, it's really hard to find more than a few conference wins.
Ok, now to Boston College:
Games against 2012 NCAA Tournament teams: 10
Games against ACC top 4: 7
Games against ACC bottom 4: 4
Best non-conference game: 12/4 vs. Harvard
Projected Starting Five:
C - Dennis Clifford (Sophomore)
F - Ryan Anderson (Sophomore)
G - Patrick Heckmann (Sophomore)
G - Lonnie Jackson (Sophomore)
G - Jordan Daniels (Sophomore)
Interesting lineup there, with all five starters sophomores. So it's pretty obvious that BC just does not have ACC level talent right now. They were decimated before last year, and really struggled. It was a testament to how weak the ACC was that BC won nearly almost as many games in conference (4) that they won out of conference (5). I would guess that Coach Steve Donahue had more talent on some of his Cornell teams than he has right now.
There really was not one star on BC last year. Ryan Anderson led the team in scoring, but their top five scorers averaged between 8 and 12 points per game. I watched BC several times last year, and I couldn't tell you what Ryan Anderson looks like. That's the kind of team they have. Dennis Clifford was a nice surprise for them at times, but is pretty slow and unathletic. They bring in three freshmen, but none who were very highly rated, so this is largely the same team as last year. They did lose Matt Humphrey, who was their second highest scorer.
With pretty much the same team, it's natural to expect pretty much the same results. They face a tough start to the season, with a trip to the Charleston Classic and a first round game against Baylor. I think the key part of the season for them is in December. They have six home games, all of them winnable. They can't stub their toe and lose more than one of these games, like they did last year. They need to be able to build some confidence. That's because they have a very difficult conference slate, with two games each against NC State and Duke.
The other thing for BC is they have got to play better on the road. All of their conference wins last year came in the Conte Forum. I have thought that Coach Donahue was a solid coach, but you can only be so patient with him and he has to prove he can recruit on the ACC level. Looking at the talent that BC has, it's really hard to find more than a few conference wins.
Sunday, October 21, 2012
Season Primer
Here we are, on the doorstep of another college basketball season. This is a transition year for the ACC, with Pitt and Syracuse not joining the conference for another year. There was one significant change, as the ACC has now moved to 18 conference games. This cuts down on the non-conference schedule and puts more of a premium on who you beat and who you lose to in the conference.
The ACC's reputation has been not stellar in the past few years (to put it kindly). So what are the things the conference can do to improve on its reputation: perform in their non-conference games and in the ACC Tournament. The non-conference was a struggle for at least a third of the teams in the conference last year, and that showed in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. Winning that challenge this year would be a step in the right direction. The ACC did manage to get five teams in the NCAA Tournament, but take a look at how they fared relative to expectations:
North Carolina - underachieved (Elite 8 loss)
Duke - underachieved (shocking second round loss to Lehigh)
Florida State - underachieved (third round loss)
NC State - overachieved (made it to Sweet 16)
Virginia - underachieved (blown out in second round)
That's four out of five teams that did not live up to potential. That has to change this year.
A couple things I will be looking at this year:
1. End of Duke/UNC domination? The media and coaches voted NC State as their preseason #1. It's not very often that UNC or Duke is not #1. UNC in particular lost a ton off last year's team, and with potential risers like Miami and Maryland the Tar Heels could finish outside the top four.
2. Who will the stars be? Most years the ACC has at least three or four lottery picks that you can point to as future NBA stars. Who is on that list this year? C.J. Leslie, certainly. Maybe James Michael McAdoo, if he comes out. Who else?
Stay tuned this week as I will be counting down (or up, depending on how you look at it) my preseason picks for this year, starting with #12.
The ACC's reputation has been not stellar in the past few years (to put it kindly). So what are the things the conference can do to improve on its reputation: perform in their non-conference games and in the ACC Tournament. The non-conference was a struggle for at least a third of the teams in the conference last year, and that showed in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. Winning that challenge this year would be a step in the right direction. The ACC did manage to get five teams in the NCAA Tournament, but take a look at how they fared relative to expectations:
North Carolina - underachieved (Elite 8 loss)
Duke - underachieved (shocking second round loss to Lehigh)
Florida State - underachieved (third round loss)
NC State - overachieved (made it to Sweet 16)
Virginia - underachieved (blown out in second round)
That's four out of five teams that did not live up to potential. That has to change this year.
A couple things I will be looking at this year:
1. End of Duke/UNC domination? The media and coaches voted NC State as their preseason #1. It's not very often that UNC or Duke is not #1. UNC in particular lost a ton off last year's team, and with potential risers like Miami and Maryland the Tar Heels could finish outside the top four.
2. Who will the stars be? Most years the ACC has at least three or four lottery picks that you can point to as future NBA stars. Who is on that list this year? C.J. Leslie, certainly. Maybe James Michael McAdoo, if he comes out. Who else?
Stay tuned this week as I will be counting down (or up, depending on how you look at it) my preseason picks for this year, starting with #12.
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