Monday, February 27, 2012

The Week Ahead

It was a very compelling weekend in the ACC, with a bunch of meaningful games that came right down to the wire.  At the top of the conference, Duke and Carolina both hung on to win tough games.  It was a bit surprising that Duke needed overtime at home to beat Virginia Tech, but they were coming off a very short turnaround.  N.C. State had a very damaging loss, in overtime against Clemson.  Lorenzo Brown missed two critical free throws in the last minute that really hurt State.  Miami, on the other hand, got a very solid and convincing win over Florida State, even without Reggie Johnson.  They may have some issues down the line, though, if Johnson's eligibility issue is not sorted out.

Here are the games ahead during the week:

Tuesday:

Duke at Wake Forest (9:00 p.m., ESPNU)
Duke has played really well on the road this year, and shouldn't have much problem with Wake.  The Demon Deacons got a solid win at home against Boston College, but don't have the talent to stay with Austin Rivers and company.

Wednesday:

Maryland at North Carolina (7:00 p.m., ESPN)
Maryland suffered a tough loss on the road to a bad Georgia Tech team.  They don't stand much of a chance on the road against a North Carolina squad that is fighting for the #1 seed in the ACC.

Georgia Tech at Boston College (7:00 p.m., FSN)
Not much interest in this one except perhaps deciding who will finish last in the league.  Georgia Tech has played better in two of their last three games.  Boston College really laid an egg in their weekend game against Wake Forest.

Miami at N.C. State (9:00 p.m., FSN)
This is an absolutely huge game in terms of bubble implications.  It's basically an NCAA Tournament elimination game, especially if N.C. State loses.  If Miami loses, it's not a disaster but they really need to win this one to bolster their resume.  N.C. State has not won since February 9th - that's not the way to get ready for March Madness.

Thursday:

Florida State at Virginia (7:00 p.m., ESPN2)
This is another big game in the ACC.  Virginia should be in the NCAA Tournament, but really needs to win one of their games this week to feel good.  If you take a look at Virginia's profile, their 21-7 overall record and 8-6 conference record is good.  But their best conference win is either a one point win at N.C. State or a one point win at home against Miami.  They could use a win against a team like Florida State that's pretty much guaranteed to make the NCAA Tournament.

Virginia Tech at Clemson (9:00 p.m., ACC Network)
Clemson continues to put together a strong late season push.  Virginia Tech has also played better ball in the last few games, albeit ending in mostly close losses.  The Hokies survived a late push to beat Clemson in Blacksburg.  I expect this game to go down to the wire too.

Friday, February 24, 2012

Weekend Preview

It wasn't a good week for our ACC bubble teams.  Miami blew it down the stretch, with several costly turnovers to lose on the road at Maryland.  And NC State lost the opportunity (again) for a signature win as they were never really that close to UNC.  Duke got a really big win, pretty much controlling Florida State and maintaining a good sized lead.  That means that it's likely for the second year in a row, the Duke/Carolina game at the end of the regular season will decide the league title and #1 seed in the ACC Tournament.

Here's the schedule this weekend:

Saturday:

Virginia Tech at Duke (12:00 p.m., ACC Network)
The Hokies are playing better, but weren't able to get it done down the stretch at home against Virginia.  Their last four games have been decided by no more than two points.  I don't think they'll be able to keep the game that close in Cameron against a Duke team that already beat them by double digits in Blacksburg.

Boston College at Wake Forest (1:00 p.m., FSN)
Wake got a win up in Chestnut Hill earlier this year and will be looking for the sweep.  It's not out of the question for BC to pull off the road win, though, as they have played better than Wake has recently.  The winner of this game will pretty much be assured of not finishing last in the league.

N.C. State at Clemson (2:30 p.m., ACC Network)
Simply put, N.C. State must win this game if they want to make the NCAA Tournament.  Clemson has been playing better, but their RPI is still so low that losing to them, even in Littlejohn, counts as a bad loss.

Maryland at Georgia Tech (2:30 p.m., ACC Network)
The Terps put together a nice win over Miami Tuesday to prevent their late-season slide from getting worse.  After playing pretty inspired ball at Virginia Tech last weekend, Georgia Tech put in an absolute stinker at home against Clemson, scoring only 37 points.

North Carolina at Virginia (4:00 p.m., ESPN)
Very intriguing matchup between two teams that just played each other two weeks ago.  I give UVA a much better chance at home to pull off the upset.  If they can get points from someone other than Mike Scott, they have a chance.  UNC needs to win to keep pace with Duke and Florida State in the top of the standings.

Sunday:

Florida State at Miami (6:00 p.m., ESPNU)
Like N.C. State, Miami has to win this weekend.  They are probably in better position than N.C. State at this point with the chance at a quality win over Florida State.  The Seminoles could be in letdown mode after losing at home to Duke.  But they are the superior team.

Final Thoughts:

The one team that I took a flier on, based on how they did last year, was Clemson.  I picked them to finish 4th this year in the ACC.  That will not end up happening, by a long shot.  In fact in the first couple months this year Clemson looked like it was one of the three worst teams in the league.  However, the Tigers are starting to play better, and may be in line for another late run like Brad Brownell pulled out last year.

It's been an odd ACC season for Clemson.  They are 6-7 in the league, currently in a tie for 7th.  Interestingly, three of their wins have been by at least 19 points.  They beat Florida State by 20, Wake Forest on the road by 20, and Georgia Tech on the road by 19.  Most of their losses have been close: at BC by 2, at Miami by 3, at Virginia by 4, at Virginia Tech by 2, vs. Maryland by 2.  You'll be hard pressed to find a team that has played better on the road (outside the top tier teams) in the ACC.  With home games against N.C. State and Virginia Tech coming up, the Tigers could finish 8-8 in the league, something that looked highly improbable two months ago.

Monday, February 20, 2012

The Week Ahead

It was a good week for one team looking to make the NCAA Tournament and a bad week for another.  Florida State took care of business in Raleigh, showing no effects from its struggle against Virginia Tech.  The team they beat, N.C. State, followed up a collapse at Duke with a flat performance at home.  The Wolfpack will have to regroup fast if they want to make the tournament.  The other big story from the weekend: the second half performance of UVA.  The Cavaliers allowed only 13 points in the second half to Maryland in blowing open a close game, to get a little bit of their mojo back.

Here's the schedule for this week (BC and Wake are off):

Tuesday:

Clemson at Georgia Tech (7:00 p.m., FSN)
Clemson once again lost in Chapel Hill, continuing their 0-fer streak.  But they have played better basketball recently.  Georgia Tech actually played better without Glen Rice, Jr. in Blacksburg, but still lost.  In a week of good matchups, this is probably the least attractive game.

Miami at Maryland (8:00 pm., ACC Network)
Miami played a solid second half against Wake Forest to get a nice bounceback win.  But they really need to win this one to put themselves in decent position for the NCAA Tournament.  Maryland may have run out of gas after losing Pe'Shon Howard for the year.  Mark Turgeon was very upset with their effort in the second half against Virginia.

North Carolina at N.C. State (8:00 p.m., ACC Network)
N.C. State is in desperate need of this win after losing to the other two top teams in the league.  Carolina is plugging along nicely and already beat the Wolfpack easily in Chapel Hill.  N.C. State has a chance at the upset, but only if the Heels come out flat.

Virginia at Virginia Tech (9:00 p.m., ESPNU)
Last year, two losses to Virginia probably cost Virginia Tech a trip to the NCAA Tournament.  This year, Virginia Tech can return the favor.  They already won in Charlottesville.  Virginia can't lose another game to a lower tier team in the conference.  Without Victor Davila, it's hard to see the Hokies stopping Mike Scott.

Thursday:
Duke at Florida State (7:00 p.m., ESPN)
A very intriguing matchup that may decide the champion of the league.  Of course, Florida State already won in Cameron.  But for some reason, this year Duke has played better on the road than at home.  I would actually favor the Blue Devils in this one.  Austin Rivers continues to produce.  Although if one of Florida State's 3 point shooters goes off, they could win by 10 points.

Friday, February 17, 2012

Weekend Preview

Saturday:

Wake Forest at Miami (1:00 p.m., FSN)
Miami has had a couple of tough losses in the past week, and need to take care of business in this game.  I wouldn't think they would have too much trouble.  Wake won their most recent game against Georgia Tech, but haven't shown the ability to play well on the road at all.

Florida State at N.C. State (1:00 p.m., ACC Network)
Florida State dodged a major bullet at home against Virginia Tech, and is looking to build on their resume with a road win.  N.C. State really needs this win, though, after blowing a big second half lead at Cameron.  They would have been on the right side of the bubble if they would have been able to close against Duke.

Maryland at Virginia (1:00 p.m., ACC Network)
Virginia suffered a pretty bad loss on the road at Clemson, and needs to win this one.  Maryland got a fairly easy win against Boston College, but at this point is just playing for a potential NIT appearance.

Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech (3:00 p.m., FSN)
Georgia Tech right now is the worst team in the ACC.  They have a chance to catch Virginia Tech at the right time, though, coming off a tough emotional loss to Florida State.  The Hokies might also be short-handed in this game, giving the Yellow Jackets a better chance.

Clemson at North Carolina (4:00 p.m., ESPN)
One of the most interesting streaks in college basketball.  Clemson has never won in Chapel Hill.  Ever.  And I don't think that's going to change this year.  The Tigers got a nice win over Virginia but have not played well at all on the road.

Sunday:

Duke at Boston College (6:00 p.m., ESPNU)
Boston College has definitely improved as the season has gone on.  They will be hard pressed to stay with Duke, though.  The Blue Devils can't be very happy about how they played for most of their game with N.C. State.  And they will be looking to shut the door early against BC.

Final Thoughts:

The NCAA Tournament picture continues to shift.  At this point, UNC and Duke are definitely in.  Florida State has one foot in the door, but has a very tough schedule down the line.  If they somehow slip to 9-7 in the league they would probably be out.  Virginia is looking shakier as well.  They don't really have good non-conference wins.  Right now they are 6-5 in conference.  They will probably need to beat at least UNC or Florida State at home to feel good.

Miami and NC State are right now squarely on the bubble.  NC State is 7-4 against a fairly soft schedule.  Their remaining schedule: FSU, UNC, @Clemson, Miami, @VT.  I think they need to win three of those five.  Miami is 6-5 with a good road win at Duke.  Their remaining schedule: Wake, @Maryland, FSU, @NC State, BC.  If they can go 4-1 they should be in.

Monday, February 13, 2012

The Week Ahead

This weekend was stabilizing for a couple of teams who were coming off tough losses.  North Carolina rebounded from the Duke loss to take care of Virginia, pretty easily in the second half.  Florida State got a bounceback win at home against Miami, stopping the Hurricanes' hot streak.  I was in Blacksburg yesterday to see Virginia Tech pull a rabbit out of its hat against Boston College.

Here's the schedule for this week:

Tuesday:

Virginia at Clemson (7:00 p.m., ESPNU)
Clemson got a somewhat surprisingly easily win on the road against Wake this weekend.  I think that probably says more about Wake than Clemson.  Virginia needs to bounce back from a poor performance in Chapel Hill with a road win against a lesser team.  They are still not a lock for the NCAA Tournament.

Wednesday:

Georgia Tech at Wake Forest (7:30 p.m., FSN)
The battle of the two worst teams in the conference.  Both teams have really struggled, and each have only two conference wins.  This game is for basketball purists only.

North Carolina at Miami (8:00 p.m., ESPN)
Miami lost the chance to pick up a big win on the road at Florida State, but they have another chance if they can knock off North Carolina.  The Heels beat Miami pretty easily in Chapel Hill, but that was back when Miami was still trying to break Reggie Johnson back in the lineup.

Thursday:

Virginia Tech at Florida State (7:00 p.m., ESPN2)
Virginia Tech was lucky to win at home against Boston College on Sunday.  They are going to have a tough time in Tallahassee against a team that already beat them in Blacksburg.  If Dorian Finney-Smith can keep playing well offensively, he can make it difficult for the big guys of Florida State and keep it close.

Boston College at Maryland (9:00 p.m., ACC Network)
BC is playing significantly better than they were in the first couple months of the season.  If they can keep up their hot outside shooting, they have a chance against Maryland.  The Terps are a bit deflated after an uninspired loss to Duke in which Pe'Shon Howard was lost for the season and Terrell Stoglin mouthed off about sitting on the bench.

NC State at Duke (9:00 p.m, ACC Network)
Good matchup here.  NC State has had a week to prepare for this game.  Duke struggled a bit at home against Maryland, and has already lost twice at Cameron this year.  I don't expect NC State to win, but they have the talent to hang with the Blue Devils.

Friday, February 10, 2012

Weekend Preview

Aside from the big UNC/Duke game that I already reviewed, there wasn't much of note in the ACC this week.  There was, however, a pretty surprising upset, as Florida State lost to Boston College.  That has to be a big boost for BC, which some people thought wouldn't win an ACC game this year.

Only five ACC games this weekend - Georgia Tech and NC State are off.

Saturday:

Miami at Florida State (1:00 p.m., ACC Network)
A couple of very intriguing games at 1:00 on Saturday.  The battle of Florida takes on extra importance as both teams are in the hunt for a top 4 seed.  Florida State wants to prove that the BC game was a fluke.  And Miami's looking to upgrade its NCAA resume with a signature road win.  This is probably the most meaningful FSU/Miami game in a long time.

Virginia at North Carolina (1:00 p.m., ACC Network)
We'll learn a lot about the toughness of North Carolina in this game.  How will they respond after the crushing Duke loss against a Virginia team that is very tough to play against?  Virginia played very well against Wake Forest and will need another great effort from Mike Scott against Carolina's frontline if they have a chance at the road upset.

Maryland at Duke (4:00 p.m., ESPN)
This could be a sneaky game for Duke.  The Blue Devils are coming off the emotional high of the win against North Carolina.  They have also played better on the road this year than at home, which is pretty unusual.  Maryland is playing pretty solid basketball, with a nice road win against Clemson this week.  They generally play Duke tough at Cameron too.

Clemson at Wake Forest (4:00 p.m., FSN)
Wake really struggled in Charlottesville, and Clemson has played very poorly on offense the last two games.  This will most likely be a close, low-scoring game that could go either way.

Sunday:

Boston College at Virginia Tech (6:00 p.m., ESPNU)
A month ago it was unthinkable that BC could possibly sweep Virginia Tech.  But with a confidence building win over Florida State, they have a chance to win in Blacksburg.  Virginia Tech looked lifeless against Miami, and may just be playing out the string the rest of the season.

Thursday, February 09, 2012

Analysis: Duke vs. UNC

Big-time players make shots in big moments, and it doesn't get much bigger than last night for Austin Rivers.  You knew once the clock hit about 4 seconds that Rivers was not going to pass the ball.  And he delivered in a big way for Duke, getting a huge road win.

What a series of events for Tyler Zeller in the last minute.  Zeller dominated in the first half, and was the main reason why UNC was able to stay in it early.  But in the last minute: Zeller makes 1 of 2 free throws, Zeller accidentally tips in a ball that counts as two points for Duke, Zeller makes 1 of 2 free throws, Zeller is caught guarding Rivers and gives up the final shot.

The truth of the matter is that UNC should never have lost this game.  There was no point in the second half up until the very end that I thought that Duke was going to win.  The Tar Heels made a great defensive adjustment at halftime to really shut down the three point shooters and force them to go inside.  Harrison Barnes got hot in the second half and started hitting everything.  Everything was going the Tar Heels' way.

But you have to put away the Blue Devils when you have the chance.  Where was Barnes in the last five minutes?  Where was John Henson?  It is not often that you see Carolina get rattled in their own building, but it happened.

So what does this all mean?  For one, it throws the ACC race into a big jumble.  Especially with Florida State's surprising loss to Boston College.  Duke still has some issues to address, but they have a very real chance at winning the league, since they get UNC at Cameron later this year.  Duke's schedule plays out pretty favorably, with a road game at Florida State the only likely loss.  Carolina has a tougher road, with two games against Virginia, and road games at Miami and NC State.

Just like Coach K questioned Duke's mental toughness on Sunday, Roy Williams might be questioning his team's mental toughness now.  If you have that much talent as Carolina does, you have to be able to finish games like that.

Monday, February 06, 2012

The Week Ahead

It was an interesting weekend in the ACC.  The headline is definitely Duke's loss at home to Miami in overtime.  It was surprising enough that Duke lost a second home game this year, to a Miami team that hadn't done much this year.  What's even more surprising is just how poorly Duke played in overtime after they had rallied to tie the game.  That prompted some harsh criticism from Coach K:
Coach K Questions Team's Toughness

On the other side, this is a very good win for Miami.  They are now right into the NCAA Tournament conversation, but need to do a lot more to merit a bid.

The other big game this weekend was Florida State beating Virginia by three at home.  FSU was ahead pretty much the whole game, and withstood a Virginia run to pull one out at home.  The Seminoles are 7-1 in conference and have a very favorable schedule ahead.  Their next tough game is February 18th at NC State.

Here's a look at this week's games:

Tuesday:

Maryland at Clemson (7:00 p.m., ESPNU)
Maryland missed an opportunity to get a signature win at home against UNC.  They have played well in their last two games only to lose both.  It will be tough to win at Clemson, where the Tigers have played well.

Wednesday:

Florida State at Boston College (7:00 p.m.)
Trap game?  It's hard to see Florida State losing to BC.  The Eagles came close to a win at Georgia Tech but have not beaten a team anywhere near the caliber of Florida State this year.

Wake Forest at Virginia (7:00 p.m., FSN)
Wake actually played decently this weekend on the road against NC State.  They will need a similar offensive performance to knock off Virginia.  The Cavaliers played pretty well even in a loss in Tallahassee.

Duke at North Carolina (9:00 p.m., ACC Network or ESPN)
This is obviously the game of the week, as it always is when these two teams play.  I'm interested to see how Duke comes out.  They should be angry and wanting to prove their coach wrong.  But they don't have the talent level to match Carolina, especially in Chapel Hill.  Duke needs someone to step up and be a leader both on and off the court.  I don't think Austin Rivers is that guy right now.  If Duke can get both Curry and Dawkins hitting 3s, they can stay in this game until the end.  But if Carolina plays up to their ability, they will win by 10.

Thursday:

NC State at Georgia Tech (7:00 p.m., ESPNU)
NC State is coasting through a very easy portion of their schedule, with three straight games against the three worst teams in the league.  Georgia Tech had to feel good about finally getting a win, but they still have some serious issues.  You have to think the Wolfpack are the favorite on the road, even though the Yellow Jackets won the first meeting in Raleigh.

Virginia Tech at Miami (9:00 p.m., ESPN2)
Like Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech had to feel good about getting a home win under their belts.  Miami should be riding high after their win at Cameron, but this is exactly the type of game that previous Miami teams would lose.  We'll see if Coach Larranaga has imparted a different mindset on this team.

Final Thoughts:

I wanted to say a few words about the job Steve Donahue has done at Boston College.  Many people looked at the Eagles on paper and saw how little talent they had and thought they would be worse than last year's Wake Forest team.  Well, last year Wake went 1-15 in the league and only lost one game by less than 10 points.  So far Boston College is 2-7 in conference.  Two of their seven losses have been by less than 10 points.  So obviously the numbers aren't great, but they are showing signs of improvement.  They at least seem to play together a lot more than Wake's team did last year.  The schedule is pretty tough going ahead - they only have three home games left, and two of them are against Florida State and Duke.  But they have a chance to not finish in last place in the league, which is something nobody thought a month or so ago.

Saturday, February 04, 2012

The Bottom


In the ongoing series of trying to figure out why the ACC has been down lately, I decided to take a look at the bottom.  The ACC is filled with proud programs who have a rich history in basketball (for the most part).  These teams are not used to struggling.  And usually bad years are just an anomaly.  So are the worst teams in the league getting worse?  I took a look at the last 10 years in the ACC, and compiled a list of the 10 worst records in that time.  Here's what it looks like:




As you can see, last year's Wake Forest team made the top of the list.  There isn't a whole lot you can look at as trends, but I did pick up on one thing.  For the most part this list is pretty spread out among the last 10 years.  But there are three seasons which have more than one team on the list.  One was the 2001-2002 season, which was a very bad year for the ACC, namely because North Carolina was so bad.  That year four of the nine ACC teams finished with overall records below .500.  One of the other years with more than one on the list was last season.  Wake Forest was the only team in the last 10 years to not win more than one conference game.


Most years I found that on average two teams finished with overall records below .500.  And a lot of times one of those teams would be in the range of 15-16, not terrible.  Last year three teams finished with records below .500.  This year Boston College, Georgia Tech and Wake Forest will almost certainly finish below .500.  And there's a decent chance that Clemson and/or Virginia Tech will do the same.


The bottom line is, someone has to finish last every year.  So not everyone's going to have a good record.  But teams can still perform well in their non-conference games so their record doesn't look so bad.  What these numbers mean is that more teams are just not very competitive than there usually are, which is a big reason why the ACC is down.


Before I wrap up, a couple other observations from that list of worst 10 records.  First off, it's amazing that Paul Hewitt stayed at Georgia Tech as long as he did.  Yes, he had some good seasons, but he made this list three times. In a fourth season, Georgia Tech finished 15-17.  Also, it's hard to look at this and blame ACC expansion.  Of the three schools added, only Miami in 2006-2007 made the bottom 10 list.  So Miami, BC and Virginia Tech have held their own and not been ACC doormats.  You also might be surprised that NC State is not on this list, for as much grief as Sidney Lowe got.  Yes, they weren't very good.  But they typically took care of business early in the season.  Twice NC State finished with 15-16 records despite really struggling in the ACC.

Friday, February 03, 2012

Weekend Preview

Not a lot of note from the past week.  The best game was definitely a wild affair in Coral Gables, with Miami beating Maryland in double overtime, in a game that featured Mark Turgeon being ejected.  Duke and North Carolina both got comfortable road wins against lesser opponents.  And Florida State shook off a poor first half to beat Georgia Tech and keep their roll going.

This weekend's schedule doesn't set up all that well for fans.  There are five games on Saturday, but three games are going on at 1:00 and two games are at 4:00.  Fortunately there are a couple of solid matchups.

Saturday:

Boston College at Georgia Tech (1:00 p.m., ESPNU)
The matchup between probably the worst two teams in the conference, both in bad need of a win.  This one will not be pretty to watch.

Virginia at Florida State (1:00 p.m., ACC Network)
The game of the weekend, in my opinion.  Florida State has been riding high in the last few weeks.  Virginia struggled to put away Clemson, but is still one of the top four teams in the conference and has the ability to win on the road.  If Virginia can knock down some 3s, they can win.

Wake Forest at NC State (1:00 p.m., ACC Network)
It seems like these two teams just played, and it was not a pretty affair in Winston-Salem.  NC State destroyed Wake, and I don't think that's going to change in this one.  Wake needs to be careful or they might see another swoon like they had last year.

North Carolina at Maryland (4:00 p.m., ESPN)
Maryland has lived for home games against UNC and Duke in the last several years.  They failed at home against Duke, and have another chance at a signature win.  I was impressed with how the Terps held together in Miami.  But UNC is a different animal.  They played poorly on the road against Wake and still won very easily.

Clemson at Virginia Tech (4:00 p.m., FSN)
Clemson hasn't won a road game in the ACC.  Virginia Tech hasn't won a home game in the ACC.  Something has to give here.  Clemson actually played decently in Charlottesville.  Virginia Tech has to guard against a letdown after losing to Duke.

Sunday:

Miami at Duke (3:00 p.m., ESPNU)
This game is moved up from the normal 6:00 p.m. spot because of the Super Bowl.  Duke is getting better contributions from Mason Plumlee, which is helping them to be more balanced.  Miami to me has been a bit of a disappointment, struggling to put away games like their home game against Maryland.

Final Thoughts:

The ACC released information Friday about how the conference will look when Pitt and Syracuse join.  I have never been a fan of this move, but it's inevitable so I'll have to live with it.  It will be interesting to see the ACC go to 18 conference games.  I think that will be a net positive, although the conference needs to improve.  Teams should benefit from playing more conference games against stiffer competition.  But if the ACC continues to be down, that won't be as much of a benefit as playing strong teams from other conferences.  Of course, Pitt and Syracuse both bring great pedigrees in basketball, so some of the other schools will just be adding two L's to their schedule when they join the conference.