Monday, December 28, 2009

ACC Update

It was a pretty quiet week around the ACC, with teams taking a break for Christmas. In fact, there was only one ACC team who lost this past week: that was NC State losing on the road to Arizona at the last second. NC State struggled at times in this game, but they were on the road without their best player, Tracy Smith, so you can't fault them too much.

ACC teams are easing back into the swing of things this week. During the week, there are a few decent matchups. We'll look ahead to those before later in the week previewing the weekend, which has some great games.

Here's what to look for:

Monday:
Rutgers at UNC - This does appear to be a mismatch, and UNC should win easily, but it's worth watching to see if Carolina's young talent has a hangover from losing to Texas.

Wednesday:
UAB at Virginia - The Blazers have played pretty well so far this year and won't be intimidated going up to Charlottesville. The Cavaliers have struggled and need to win this one.
William and Mary at Maryland - William and Mary has been the surprise team of the CAA, having already beaten Wake Forest on the road. They also barely lost on the road to UConn. Maryland has lost this type of game in the past couple years.
South Carolina at Boston College - BC has had an up and down year and should be in for a good battle from SC. Miami beat the Gamecocks fairly easily in South Carolina, so BC should win as well.

Thursday:
Richmond at Wake Forest - The Deacons have already lost to W&M on their home floor, and Richmond is used to beating top ranked opponents. They've already beaten Florida this year.

Monday, December 21, 2009

Observations

Another week is in the books, and a lot of teams are taking a break for Christmas. The 12 ACC teams are playing a total of 12 games this week, with no conference games.

For me the most interesting game was the conference opener between Georgia Tech and Florida State. The Seminoles led most of the way, controlling the paint on defense. They choked a bit in regulation, with two missed free throws, but won it in overtime. I thought this was a really significant game for both teams.

For Florida State, I think it proved that they are building the program. They had so many years of being stuck at 8-8 in conference with an NIT bid. The Noles took a step forward last year, and despite losing Toney Douglas appear to be in it for the long haul. I expect them to go back to the Tournament this year.

But what I took away from this game the most was how Paul Hewitt will probably not be at Georgia Tech much longer. Hewitt has proved to be a great recruiter, getting top NBA talent to come to Atlanta (even if only to play for one year). But I don't think he's a very good in-game coach. His teams, no matter the personnel, seem to still have the same issues. They are very sloppy ballhandlers, and rack up the turnovers. And they don't seem to have a good gameplan on offense that gets the ball in the hands of their best players. For several years now, their strength has been inside, but they have really under-utilized those players. A guy like Derrick Favors would be putting up a lot better numbers at most other schools.

Don't get me wrong -- I really like Paul Hewitt. But he should have a much better record with the level of talent he has. I don't see Georgia Tech earning that preseason top 25 ranking.

In other ACC news, North Carolina lost another game, but I wouldn't panic if I was a Tar Heel fan. They lost to a very good Texas team and I still think the Heels will compete with Duke for the league crown.

This week, check out two games: UMass at Boston College and NC State at Arizona. Both games are on Wednesday.

Monday, December 14, 2009

Week 5 Recap

As expected, there wasn't much ACC action to speak of this past week. This is the time of year where games are few and far between. There were a couple of notable occurrences, however. Boston College really had a rough week. They lost at home to Harvard for the second year in a row, and then followed that up with a home loss to Rhode Island. ACC teams really should not lose home games to non-BCS conference teams. And BC had two in one week. It's hard to figure Boston College at this point in the year. They had a nice road win over Michigan and seemed to be playing well, but now sit at 6-4.

Virginia Tech had the best ACC win of the week, going up to Happy Valley and knocking off Penn State. After a rough start to the season, the Hokies have some momentum, and with three cupcake games upcoming should start the season 11-1.

So what's in store for this coming week? Unfortunately, much of the same, with not many games on the schedule. The weekend does shape up to be better, with some really good matchups, including conference games. Here's a look at the best games:

Wednesday:
Clemson at East Carolina - Shouldn't be too much trouble for the Tigers but any road game is significant
Wake Forest at UNC Wilmington - Might be a tough road game for Wake against a Colonial opponent

Thursday:
Auburn at Florida State - Auburn knocked off Virginia last week but FSU should handle them

Saturday:
North Carolina vs. Texas (in Arlington, TX) - This game at the new Cowboys Stadium is a great matchup and another tough one for Carolina
Gonzaga vs. Duke (at MSG) - Duke always plays well at Madison Square Garden and although the Zags have looked good so far they won't be favored in this one
Charleston at Clemson - Bobby Cremins' team is predicted to win the Southern conference, and could give Clemson a fight

Sunday:
Florida State at Georgia Tech - Good matchup for an early-season conference game. We'll find out just how good the Jackets are
NC State at Wake Forest - If State plays like they did in a win at Marquette they could pull off the upset

Monday, December 07, 2009

Week 4 Recap

It was a pretty good weekend for the ACC. Wake Forest had a big road win over Gonzaga, and NC State had a great second half to blow past Marquette on the road. The first conference game was a dogfight, with BC beating Miami by 1 point. That loss by Miami means that there are no undefeated teams left in the conference. While this may be disappointing, there also are no teams with a losing record.

The most surprising thing to me has been the performance of some of the teams predicted in the bottom half of the league. Miami is 8-1, NC State is 6-1, Boston College is 6-2, and Virginia Tech is 6-1.

This is the point of the year when a lot of schools go into exam mode and the games become much less frequent. Don't expect to see all that many marquee matchups in the next couple weeks. In fact, there are only 3 games during the week that ACC teams are playing in. Here are the highlights of the next 7 days:

Monday:
Virginia at Auburn - Cavaliers have been a disappointing 4-3 and need a good solid win. This game should be a toss-up.

Saturday:
Virginia Tech at Penn State - Hokies had a good week with wins over BCS teams Iowa and Georgia. A win at Penn State would be a big step in the right direction.

And that's pretty much it. If ACC teams lose any of the other games on the schedule this week, it would be a big upset.

Thursday, December 03, 2009

Mid-Week Update

It's a good thing I don't bet on games. While my prediction for the ACC-Big Ten Challenge wasn't that far off, I only correctly predicted 4 of 11 games correctly. There were certainly plenty of surprises in there, with road teams Penn State, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Northwestern, Illinois, and Boston College winning. I think if you look for a pleasant surprise for the ACC, it was Boston College, who played short-handed on the road against a tough Michigan team. And for a disappointment, look no farther than Clemson. They blew a 23 point lead at home against an Illinois team that had lost two in a row.

Even though the Challenge is over, there are plenty of great matchups the rest of the week. This weekend is probably the best non-conference weekend of the year. Here's a look at what's on the slate:

Saturday:

UNC at Kentucky - A very tough game for the young Heels, coming off a big win over Michigan State. I expect a letdown against John Wall and final four contender Kentucky.

NC State at Marquette - The Golden Eagles have been pretty good thus far this year. NC State did not play well in a loss to Northwestern and will be hard pressed to pull off a road victory here.

St. John's at Duke - St. John's has been good early on this year but will be facing a Duke team that is upset over the Wisconsin loss.

Wake Forest at Gonzaga - See what I said about good matchups this weekend? Another great one here. The Zags have been really good thus far this year.

Southern Cal at Georgia Tech - USC and the reeling Pac-10 need a big win. They won't get it here.

Sunday:

Florida International at FSU - Nothing to say here.

South Carolina at Clemson - Clemson needs to bounce back against its rival South Carolina.

Miami at Boston College - A conference game this early in the year? Wow. Should be a great game between two surprising teams.

Georgia at Virginia Tech - Hokies look to build momentum from Iowa road win against a Georgia team that is probably the SEC's worst.

Villanova at Maryland - The Terps have struggled a bit but have a great opportunity with a virtual home game against a Top 5 club.

Of the 11 ACC teams playing this weekend, 10 are playing other big conference teams (I count the Zags as a big conference team). Should be a great weekend of games.