ACC Update

It was a pretty quiet week around the ACC, with teams taking a break for Christmas. In fact, there was only one ACC team who lost this past week: that was NC State losing on the road to Arizona at the last second. NC State struggled at times in this game, but they were on the road without their best player, Tracy Smith, so you can't fault them too much.

ACC teams are easing back into the swing of things this week. During the week, there are a few decent matchups. We'll look ahead to those before later in the week previewing the weekend, which has some great games.

Here's what to look for:

Monday:
Rutgers at UNC - This does appear to be a mismatch, and UNC should win easily, but it's worth watching to see if Carolina's young talent has a hangover from losing to Texas.

Wednesday:
UAB at Virginia - The Blazers have played pretty well so far this year and won't be intimidated going up to Charlottesville. The Cavaliers have struggled and need to win this one.
William and Mary at Maryland - William and Mary has been the surprise team of the CAA, having already beaten Wake Forest on the road. They also barely lost on the road to UConn. Maryland has lost this type of game in the past couple years.
South Carolina at Boston College - BC has had an up and down year and should be in for a good battle from SC. Miami beat the Gamecocks fairly easily in South Carolina, so BC should win as well.

Thursday:
Richmond at Wake Forest - The Deacons have already lost to W&M on their home floor, and Richmond is used to beating top ranked opponents. They've already beaten Florida this year.

Observations

Another week is in the books, and a lot of teams are taking a break for Christmas. The 12 ACC teams are playing a total of 12 games this week, with no conference games.

For me the most interesting game was the conference opener between Georgia Tech and Florida State. The Seminoles led most of the way, controlling the paint on defense. They choked a bit in regulation, with two missed free throws, but won it in overtime. I thought this was a really significant game for both teams.

For Florida State, I think it proved that they are building the program. They had so many years of being stuck at 8-8 in conference with an NIT bid. The Noles took a step forward last year, and despite losing Toney Douglas appear to be in it for the long haul. I expect them to go back to the Tournament this year.

But what I took away from this game the most was how Paul Hewitt will probably not be at Georgia Tech much longer. Hewitt has proved to be a great recruiter, getting top NBA talent to come to Atlanta (even if only to play for one year). But I don't think he's a very good in-game coach. His teams, no matter the personnel, seem to still have the same issues. They are very sloppy ballhandlers, and rack up the turnovers. And they don't seem to have a good gameplan on offense that gets the ball in the hands of their best players. For several years now, their strength has been inside, but they have really under-utilized those players. A guy like Derrick Favors would be putting up a lot better numbers at most other schools.

Don't get me wrong -- I really like Paul Hewitt. But he should have a much better record with the level of talent he has. I don't see Georgia Tech earning that preseason top 25 ranking.

In other ACC news, North Carolina lost another game, but I wouldn't panic if I was a Tar Heel fan. They lost to a very good Texas team and I still think the Heels will compete with Duke for the league crown.

This week, check out two games: UMass at Boston College and NC State at Arizona. Both games are on Wednesday.

Week 5 Recap

As expected, there wasn't much ACC action to speak of this past week. This is the time of year where games are few and far between. There were a couple of notable occurrences, however. Boston College really had a rough week. They lost at home to Harvard for the second year in a row, and then followed that up with a home loss to Rhode Island. ACC teams really should not lose home games to non-BCS conference teams. And BC had two in one week. It's hard to figure Boston College at this point in the year. They had a nice road win over Michigan and seemed to be playing well, but now sit at 6-4.

Virginia Tech had the best ACC win of the week, going up to Happy Valley and knocking off Penn State. After a rough start to the season, the Hokies have some momentum, and with three cupcake games upcoming should start the season 11-1.

So what's in store for this coming week? Unfortunately, much of the same, with not many games on the schedule. The weekend does shape up to be better, with some really good matchups, including conference games. Here's a look at the best games:

Wednesday:
Clemson at East Carolina - Shouldn't be too much trouble for the Tigers but any road game is significant
Wake Forest at UNC Wilmington - Might be a tough road game for Wake against a Colonial opponent

Thursday:
Auburn at Florida State - Auburn knocked off Virginia last week but FSU should handle them

Saturday:
North Carolina vs. Texas (in Arlington, TX) - This game at the new Cowboys Stadium is a great matchup and another tough one for Carolina
Gonzaga vs. Duke (at MSG) - Duke always plays well at Madison Square Garden and although the Zags have looked good so far they won't be favored in this one
Charleston at Clemson - Bobby Cremins' team is predicted to win the Southern conference, and could give Clemson a fight

Sunday:
Florida State at Georgia Tech - Good matchup for an early-season conference game. We'll find out just how good the Jackets are
NC State at Wake Forest - If State plays like they did in a win at Marquette they could pull off the upset

Week 4 Recap

It was a pretty good weekend for the ACC. Wake Forest had a big road win over Gonzaga, and NC State had a great second half to blow past Marquette on the road. The first conference game was a dogfight, with BC beating Miami by 1 point. That loss by Miami means that there are no undefeated teams left in the conference. While this may be disappointing, there also are no teams with a losing record.

The most surprising thing to me has been the performance of some of the teams predicted in the bottom half of the league. Miami is 8-1, NC State is 6-1, Boston College is 6-2, and Virginia Tech is 6-1.

This is the point of the year when a lot of schools go into exam mode and the games become much less frequent. Don't expect to see all that many marquee matchups in the next couple weeks. In fact, there are only 3 games during the week that ACC teams are playing in. Here are the highlights of the next 7 days:

Monday:
Virginia at Auburn - Cavaliers have been a disappointing 4-3 and need a good solid win. This game should be a toss-up.

Saturday:
Virginia Tech at Penn State - Hokies had a good week with wins over BCS teams Iowa and Georgia. A win at Penn State would be a big step in the right direction.

And that's pretty much it. If ACC teams lose any of the other games on the schedule this week, it would be a big upset.

Mid-Week Update

It's a good thing I don't bet on games. While my prediction for the ACC-Big Ten Challenge wasn't that far off, I only correctly predicted 4 of 11 games correctly. There were certainly plenty of surprises in there, with road teams Penn State, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Northwestern, Illinois, and Boston College winning. I think if you look for a pleasant surprise for the ACC, it was Boston College, who played short-handed on the road against a tough Michigan team. And for a disappointment, look no farther than Clemson. They blew a 23 point lead at home against an Illinois team that had lost two in a row.

Even though the Challenge is over, there are plenty of great matchups the rest of the week. This weekend is probably the best non-conference weekend of the year. Here's a look at what's on the slate:

Saturday:

UNC at Kentucky - A very tough game for the young Heels, coming off a big win over Michigan State. I expect a letdown against John Wall and final four contender Kentucky.

NC State at Marquette - The Golden Eagles have been pretty good thus far this year. NC State did not play well in a loss to Northwestern and will be hard pressed to pull off a road victory here.

St. John's at Duke - St. John's has been good early on this year but will be facing a Duke team that is upset over the Wisconsin loss.

Wake Forest at Gonzaga - See what I said about good matchups this weekend? Another great one here. The Zags have been really good thus far this year.

Southern Cal at Georgia Tech - USC and the reeling Pac-10 need a big win. They won't get it here.

Sunday:

Florida International at FSU - Nothing to say here.

South Carolina at Clemson - Clemson needs to bounce back against its rival South Carolina.

Miami at Boston College - A conference game this early in the year? Wow. Should be a great game between two surprising teams.

Georgia at Virginia Tech - Hokies look to build momentum from Iowa road win against a Georgia team that is probably the SEC's worst.

Villanova at Maryland - The Terps have struggled a bit but have a great opportunity with a virtual home game against a Top 5 club.

Of the 11 ACC teams playing this weekend, 10 are playing other big conference teams (I count the Zags as a big conference team). Should be a great weekend of games.

ACC/Big Ten Challenge Preview

Another week of exciting action is in the books, capped this Sunday night by Clemson and FSU pulling out 1 point wins. It was an interesting week. Among the headlines was Duke's dominance in New York. Their win over Connecticut opened some eyes, and they still look like the best team in the conference. Clemson lost a non-conference game, which almost never happens. And North Carolina escapes with a win at home over Nevada -- it's clear this team will take a while to gel. Miami, NC State and Duke are the only teams left undefeated.

So with that, let's look ahead to the annual ACC/Big Ten Challenge. The ACC has won the challenge every year since it began, but most media pundits think the Big Ten is the better league this year. Here are this year's games:

Monday:

Penn State at Virginia (7:00 pm) - Penn State has really struggled early this season, and Virginia's coming off a decent win over Cleveland State. Should be a fairly ugly, low scoring game that Virginia can steal for the ACC.

Tuesday:

Northwestern at NC State (7:00 pm) - Northwestern was dealt a serious injury blow at the beginning of the year, but they responded with a big upset win over Notre Dame. NC State is surprisingly undefeated. I think the Pack take care of business at home.

Wake Forest at Purdue (7:00 pm) - Wake inexplicably lost at home to William and Mary this week. Purdue is coming off a big tournament win over Tennessee in the Virgin Islands. The trends continue in this one, Purdue wins one for the Big Ten.

Maryland at Indiana (7:30 pm) - I don't know how Maryland got to play Indiana this year. The Hoosiers are still a ways away with Tom Crean. Terps roll, even on the road.

Michigan State at UNC (9:00 pm) - This is a very interesting matchup. Michigan State lost to a surging Florida team, while UNC is still trying to figure out its identity. Carolina usually rises to the challenge in these big games, but the Spartans are too good.

Virginia Tech at Iowa (9:30 pm) - The Hokies have played very poorly thus far this year, almost losing to Delaware. Iowa hasn't been very good either. This will be a very ugly game that probably won't get out of the 50s. I'll give the edge to the home team Hawkeyes.

Wednesday:

Illinois at Clemson (7:15 pm) - Clemson has to be disappointed with its performance in Anaheim. Illinois has to be even more disappointed with its performance this past week, losing to two unranked teams. Clemson wins this one going away.

Minnesota at Miami (7:15 pm) - Tubby Smith has done a great job with the Gophers. They won't be intimidated at Miami. But the Canes have really surprised so far this year and should win a tight one at home.

Boston College at Michigan (7:30 pm) - The Eagles had a good win on the road against Providence. They're gonna have a tough time with John Beilein's 1-3-1 defense though. I expect Michigan to win at home.

Duke at Wisconsin (9:15 pm) - The Badgers have a ridiculously good home record under Bo Ryan in the last few years. But they don't play a lot of teams like Duke. The Devils should win, even on the road.

Florida State at Ohio State (9:30 pm) - The Seminoles played great in the Old Spice Classic. But Ohio State, with Evan Turner, is going to be very tough to beat at home. I like the Buckeyes.

So with my math, the ACC wins the challenge again by a slim 6-5 margin. Should be a great week of games!

Mid-Week Update

So far, this week hasn't been the best for the ACC. After going 40-4 through the first two weeks, in the past three days ACC teams are 8-5. That includes Virginia losing to Stanford, Florida State getting blown out at Florida, and Boston College losing by double digits to Northern Iowa. And then there's Maryland. The Terps lost two games to Cincinnati and Wisconsin that they were barely ahead in either matchup. If they want to be one of the better teams in the ACC they need to come out and perform better than they did in Maui.

There are plenty of chances for the ACC to redeem itself later this week in advance of the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. Duke should be in for a great matchup with UConn Friday, the highlight of the slate for the next few days.

Week 2 Recap

All things considered, it was a pretty good week for the ACC. The 12 teams have a combined record of 40-4. UNC lost a neutral site game to Syracuse, Virginia lost a road game to South Florida, Georgia Tech lost a neutral site game to Dayton, and Boston College lost a neutral site game to St. Joseph's. Besides that, each team took care of business.

Right now, it certainly looks like Duke is the best team. They haven't had the toughest schedule but they have creamed each team they've played so far. NC State has been a bit of a surprise, blowing out Akron and beating a solid Auburn team. And Miami had a good win, over South Carolina in Charleston, SC.

So what's in store for Week 3? Some more teams playing in tournaments (highlighted by Maryland's appearance in Maui). By this time next week, more teams should have their first losses of the year. Here's a look at the most compelling games this week:

Monday:
Northern Iowa vs. Boston College (in the Virgin Islands) - UNI is a team that many people are high on this year

Tuesday:
Florida State at Florida - First big test this year for the Noles, who have played well against the Gators in recent years
Virginia vs. Stanford (in Cancun, Mexico) - The Cavaliers have a good chance in this one against a sub-par Pac 10 team
Maryland vs. Cincinnati or Vanderbilt - Should be a good matchup regardless of who wins today in Maui

Wednesday:
Duke vs. Arizona State (in Madison Square Garden) - Duke's second home in the non-conference has been MSG, and they play very well there

Thursday:
Texas A&M vs. Clemson (in Anaheim) - Clemson's recent string of undefeated non-conference seasons will be put to the test

Friday:
Virginia Tech vs. Temple (at the Palestra) - If the Hokies get past Campbell, they will face a tough test here

Saturday:
Boston College at Providence - Good non-conference game between former conference foes

As you can see, there are lots of good games to look forward to this week. Clemson, Virginia, Maryland, Duke and Florida State will also be playing games in tournaments this week whose opponents have yet to be decided. I think we'll learn a lot about the pecking order of the ACC this week.

So Far, So Good

The first week of the College Basketball season is supposed to be filled with games between power conference teams and teams that they should beat easily. So it should come as no surprise that ACC schools haven't dropped a game yet thus far this season. In fact, none of the games have been nailbiters, the smallest margin being a UNC 11 point win over Valpo. The schedule is a bit odd, with UNC playing three games this past week while Florida State has yet to play. And 9 of the 12 ACC teams have played one game.

So what's on tap for this week? There are some juicy matchups out there, although the real play usually doesn't come until Thanksgiving week. Here are the games to watch this week:

Monday:
UVA at South Florida - Cavaliers could easily drop one against the Bulls here on the road

Tuesday:
Clemson at Liberty - Flames will be jacked up but can't compete with Clemson

Thursday:
Dayton vs GT (in Puerto Rico) - Dayton is supposed to be very strong this year
Ohio St. vs. UNC (in NYC) - Should be the game of the week, two very good teams

Friday:
BC vs. St. Joseph's (in Virgin Islands) - BC needs to win games like this

Sunday:
NC State vs. Auburn (in Daytona Beach) - Tough game for the Wolfpack

UNC, Duke, NC State, Georgia Tech, Miami, and BC are all playing in tournaments this week and could have tough games with opponents yet to be determined. So it should be a great week, and I think we'll know a fair bit more about these teams once the games are done.

ACC Countdown Preview

#1. North Carolina

Games against 2009 NCAA Tournament teams: 13

Best non-conference game: Dec. 5 at Kentucky

Projected Starting Five:

F - Ed Davis (Sophomore)

F - Deon Thompson (Senior)

F - Will Graves (Junior)

G - Marcus Ginyard (Senior)

G - Larry Drew (Sophomore)

Common sense says there is no way UNC can win the ACC again this year. Gone from last year's team: Tyler Hansbrough, Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington, Danny Green -- all drafted into the NBA. I scoffed when I saw media predict they would finish as high as #3 in the country this year. And while I still think that's a bit too optimistic, when you sit down and look at the ACC teams, Carolina once again has the most talent.

What Carolina does have back this year is a terrific talent in Ed Davis. He was somewhat buried on the depth chart last year, but you could tell when he got into a game he was something special. Davis, along with the very solid Deon Thompson, make up the best frontcourt in the ACC. The backcourt is a little more suspect. I'm not sold on Larry Drew as a starting point guard. I don't think he's that good of a scorer. And paired with Marcus Ginyard, who is a great player but also not a big scorer, points might be hard to come by from the outside. I'm also not sold on heralded recruit Tyler Zeller, who looked out of place when he came back from injury last year.

One thing that will help Carolina is their out-of-conference schedule. They have some very tough games that will help the team establish some cohesiveness. Carolina will probably lose a few games early in the season (they've already played two games against relatively weak opponents and won both). But when it comes to the conference season, they should have a year in the 11-5 range that might be enough to finish on top.

ACC Countdown Preview

#2. Duke

Games against 2009 NCAA Tournament teams: 13

Best non-conference game: Dec. 19 vs Gonzaga (in New York City)

Projected Starting Five:

C - Brian Zoubek (Senior)

F - Lance Thomas (Senior)

F - Kyle Singler (Junior)

G - Jon Scheyer (Senior)

G - Nolan Smith (Junior)

When the season ended, I thought Duke would definitely be the team to beat this coming season. But the momentum hasn't really been on their side. First, Gerald Henderson decided he was going in the NBA Draft. Then, Elliot Williams decided to transfer closer to his family. That leaves a Duke team for the first time in a long time with actually more big men to play with than guards. The depth behind Jon Scheyer and Nolan Smith is not very impressive. And Coach K might have to play a lot more zone than he is comfortable with.

That said, this still is a very talented team as any team that puts on the Duke uniforms is. Kyle Singler is a special talent and has a chance to be an All-America type player. I wish he wouldn't race out to the 3 point line so much and concentrate on a mid-range game. We'll see if that happens this year. And Jon Scheyer, despite being somewhat maligned last year, still can shoot lights out. Plus there is some reason for optimism with a pair of twin big guys coming in, the Plumlees.

So what does that mean for Duke this year? Their usual non-conference schedule of a lot of home games should help the team establish its identity. I have a feeling Coach K will try a fair number of different lineups to find one that sticks. This is a team that I would put somewhere in the 10-15 range in the nation, and one that certainly has a shot of getting back to a second straight Sweet 16.

ACC Countdown Preview

#3. Maryland

Games against 2009 NCAA Tournament teams: 10

Best non-conference game: Dec. 6 vs. Villanova (in Washington, DC)

Projected Starting Five:

F - Jordan Williams (Freshman)

F - Landon Milbourne (Senior)

G - Greivis Vasquez (Senior)

G - Sean Mosley (Sophomore)

G - Eric Hayes (Senior)

This is probably my most "out on a limb" pick for the ACC. But when it comes down to it, there is a clear top two, and when you look at places 3 through 9, you can just pick names out of a hat. I do think Maryland will have a strong year for two reasons: Gary Williams and Greivis Vasquez. Gary Williams' teams don't always have the most talent or the best mix of players (like Dave Neal playing center) but he gets the most out of them.

Last year, Vasquez was the emotional leader of the team, leading the Terps to some big wins. They surprised with an early win over Michigan State and late with a win over UNC. And the core of that team will be back this year. I expect Vasquez to put up a lot of points, and Landon Milbourne to really contribute. The big question mark will be added post production from heralded freshman Jordan Williams. He has already been in some legal trouble and it remains to be seen whether he will be a positive influence on the team.

I am somewhat concerned about Eric Hayes. He seems to disappear at times and hasn't really progressed from freshman to junior year. We should find out about this Maryland team early: they have a trip to Maui, where even a relatively weak field will have some big tests. And a huge game looms in DC against Villanova. I think by the time the ACC comes the Terps will be battle tested and ready to go.

ACC Countdown Preview

#4. Wake Forest

Games against 2009 NCAA Tournament teams: 10

Best non-conference game: Dec. 1 at Purdue

Projected Starting Five:

C - Chas McFarland (Senior)

F - Al-Farouq Aminu (Sophomore)

F - Ari Stewart (Freshman)

G - L.D. Williams (Senior)

G - Ishmael Smith (Senior)

Was there a bigger mystery in the ACC last year than Wake Forest? They shocked a lot of people by jumping out to a great start, even getting as high as #1 in the country with a 16-0 record. Then, starting with a home loss to Virginia Tech, they went 8-7 the rest of the way, including a first round ACC Tournament loss and a first round NCAA Tournament loss to #13 seed Cleveland State.

Wake had an explosion of talent last year, led by Jeff Teague. So how did they fall so hard at the end of the season? The two easiest explanations are the fact that they played against tougher competition, and a lack of outside shooting caught up with them. This year, Teague is gone.

While Teague left, Al-Farouq Aminu is still around, and that's huge for the Deacs. Aminu is a game-changer who is one of the most exciting players in the ACC. This year Ish Smith will go back to a larger role, which he excelled at in previous years. And Chas McFarland has developed nicely. So I see Wake having a solid year. The key will be to avoid that late season swoon. While I don't think they will get to #1 as they did last year, I think they will have a good start to the season and win enough ACC games to get back to the NCAAs for a second straight year.

ACC Countdown Preview

#5. Clemson

Games against 2009 NCAA Tournament teams: 12

Best non-conference game: Nov. 26 vs. Texas A&M (in Anaheim, CA)

Projected Starting Five:

F - Trevor Booker (Senior)

F - David Potter (Senior)

G - Noel Johnson (Freshman)

G - Tanner Smith (Sophomore)

G - Demontez Stitt (Junior)

The most puzzling offseason move in the ACC had to be Clemson sharpshooter Terrence Oglesby's decision to leave the Tigers and play in Europe. This followed a dubious exit, Oglesby getting ejected in a first round loss to Michigan in the NCAA Tournament. Make no mistake, this is a big loss for the Tigers. Oglesby had terrific range and was a threat that defenses had to pay a lot of attention to.

For a few years now, Clemson has been a good team right on the verge of being great. Oliver Purnell's squad has gone through the non-conference slate undefeated several times, only to see the team fade at the end of the year, never making a deep run in the NCAAs. So what's in store for this year? Besides losing Oglesby, dependable guard KC Rivers is gone as well. The good news is that Trevor Booker decided to come back for his senior year. Booker is a great interior player that often demands a double team.

Besides Booker and Demontez Stitt, who I think is a pretty solid player, that leaves Clemson with some guys who have been role players in the past having to step up and play big roles. The Tigers have high hopes for Noel Johnson, an incoming freshman. I think this year Clemson takes a small step back. They should be able to get off to another good start but I'm not sure they have enough inside/outside balance to win double digit games in the ACC. They should have enough to make the NCAAs yet again but it might be another first round exit.

ACC Countdown Preview

#6. Florida State

Games against 2009 ACC Tournament teams: 10

Best non-conference game: Nov. 24 at Florida

Projected Starting Five:

C - Solomon Alabi (Sophomore)

F - Chris Singleton (Sophomore)

G - Derwin Kitchen (Junior)

G - Michael Snear (Freshman)

G - Luke Loucks (Sophomore)

For years the most predictable team in the ACC was Leonard Hamilton's Florida State squad. They would go somewhere within a game of 8-8, winning at home against either UNC or Duke, and make the NIT. Last year was a bright spot, however. Toney Douglas, a tremendous player, led the Seminoles to an overachieving season with an NCAA Tournament bid. A lot of people had them going a long way in the NCAAs, but they came crashing down with a first round overtime loss to Wisconsin.

So the question for this year is, can FSU build on the momentum and make another good run? They certainly have some good pieces. Alabi and Singleton will be as good as any front line in the ACC. They are tall and long and will be matchup problems for just about any team. For me the two big questions will be guard play and leadership. Who will step up and fill the void left by Douglas? And where will the backcourt points come from? Kitchen was a decent player last year, but seemed to disappear in some games. Loucks hasn't made a name for himself, and Snear is a freshman.

I think Florida State will perform well early in the season, overpowering their fairly weak non-conference schedule. When it comes to the ACC slate, though, I think another year around the 8-8 mark is probably the outcome. They are a pretty young team and will struggle on the road. And in the end, they will be one of those teams that is right on the bubble to make the NCAA.

ACC Countdown Preview

#7. Georgia Tech

Games against 2009 NCAA Tournament teams: 16

Best non-conference game: Dec. 5 vs. Southern Cal

Projected Starting Five:

F - Gani Lawal (Junior)

F - Derrick Favors (Freshman)

F - Zach Peacock (Senior)

G - Maurice Miller (Junior)

G - Iman Shumpert (Sophomore)



I like Paul Hewitt a lot. He took a tough job, trying to follow in the footsteps of Bobby Cremins. And he did a great job, getting Georgia Tech to the title game in 2004. But since then, a lot has gone wrong. He has recruited talented players, but a lot of them have bolted early. And last year the team was quite bad. But it's interesting to see how they are being received coming into this season. They got one of the most highly touted recruits, Derrick Favors, and all of a sudden people are saying they could finish in the top 3 in the ACC and ranked in the top 25.



I think that's all a bit of an overexaggeration. I think the Yellow Jackets will definitely be better with Favors. He's most likely one of those one and done players who will put up great numbers in the post. If you look at the rest of the team, they have a solid inside presence in Gani Lawal. Their guards, Mo Miller and Iman Shumpert, are pretty erratic. They can go off and score in bunches but can also turn the ball over a lot.



So what do I expect from the Yellow Jackets this year? For one thing, the schedule is very tough. They play 16 games against teams that made the tournament last year, which is 3 more than any other ACC team plays. That will make things tough. I see Georgia Tech with a definite improvement over last year, but I think with the difficult schedule it will be hard to make it to the NCAAs. And sadly, that might not be enough to keep Paul Hewitt around for another year.

ACC Countdown Preview

#8. Virginia Tech

Games against 2009 NCAA Tournament teams: 10

Best non-conference game: Nov. 27 vs. Temple (in Philadelphia)

Projected Starting Five:

F - Jeff Allen (Junior)

F - J.T. Thompson (Junior)

G - Dorenzo Hudson (Junior)

G - Malcolm Delaney (Junior)

G - Erick Green (Freshman)

When I look at this program now versus what it was about six years ago, there has been quite a transformation. Seth Greenberg has done a great job. I never imagined the Hokies would make the NCAA Tournament or have so many high finishes in the ACC. That being said, the last two years have been pretty frustrating for Tech fans. The team has finished just shy of the Big Dance both times.

I think the biggest factor is the performance out of conference. Every year, the Hokies lose at least one or two games to teams they shouldn't, and that comes back to haunt them in March. I think part of the problem is the mentality. Greenberg's teams like to take the underdog, David vs. Goliath approach. And that's good when you're trying to knock off a big dog, but when you are playing games against inferior teams from other conferences, you have to have that ACC swagger. If the Hokies want to make it to the Big Dance they need a non-conference slate with one or two losses max.

So let's look at this year's team. Gone is A.D. Vassallo, who was a huge contributor offensively. Malcolm Delaney and Jeff Allen are as talented as anyone in the ACC. The key for Tech is the contributions from other players. They have really lacked balance in the past. Guys like Hudson, Thompson and Terrell Bell have to contribute on a consistent basis. A big factor this year will be the play of freshman guards Erick Green and Ben Boggs. The Hokies faded down the stretch last year because Delaney had to play the point too much, which really wore him down.

I think with the way the ACC lays out this year, the Hokies could definitely jump up and finish in the top half. They have the experience. But I just have a feeling that it will be a very similar year to last year: too many offensive lapses, too many losses to teams they should beat to get back to the NCAAs.

ACC Countdown Preview

#9. Boston College

Games against 2009 NCAA Tournament teams: 10

Best non-conference game: Dec. 2 at Michigan

Projected Starting Five:

C - Josh Southern (Junior)

F - Joe Trapani (Junior)

F - Rakim Sanders (Junior)

G - Corey Raji (Junior)

G - Biko Paris (Junior)

Boston College seems almost like the odd man out of the ACC. They are nowhere near any of the other schools geographically, and have a hard time drawing packed houses for ACC games. That being said, you have to hand it to Al Skinner for his success there. Ever since Troy Bell, the Eagles have had a stream of solid players that have pushed this team to the NCAA Tournament.

Like Miami, Boston College loses the heart and soul of their team from last year, a great scoring guard. Tyrese Rice was a solid player for four years and had seemingly unlimited range. Looking at the team for this year, they have the potential to get back to the Big Dance, but I think without Rice it will be tough. I do really like Joe Trapani, a transfer from Vermont who really played well last year. I think he will be the number one scoring option. Rakim Sanders is also very solid, and can put up a 20 point game.

Besides them, I just don't see a lot. Josh Southern is usually good for about 15 minutes and 4 fouls. Raji and Paris are decent players but nothing special. I don't think they have the ability to beat UNC and Duke like they did last year. What it will come down to is if they can win the games against the mid-level teams. I think they'll win some of them at home but not enough to do better than the NIT.

ACC Countdown Preview

#10. Virginia

Games against 2009 NCAA Tournament teams: 10

Best non-conference game: Nov. 25 vs. Kentucky or Cleveland State (in Mexico)

Projected Starting Five:

C - Assane Sene (Sophomore)

F - Mike Scott (Junior)

G - Sylven Landesberg (Sophomore)

G - Calvin Baker (Senior)

G - Sammy Zeglinski (Sophomore)

As a Virginia Tech grad, it pained me to see Virginia hire Tony Bennett in the off-season. I saw Bennett's Washington State team play a lot the last couple years, and have a lot of respect for him as a coach. He certainly has a different style, which he inherited from his dad, Dick Bennett. Tony likes to play games in the 50s and slow things down. So how will that work at Virginia and in the ACC?

The Cavaliers had a good season a few years ago with Sean Singletary leading them to the NCAA Tournament. After Singletary left, they were supposed to be down, and they were. There were a lot of bad losses last year. Many games the team was Sylven Landesberg and no one else. If you look at the team this year, there aren't a whole lot of changes. Mamadi Diane is gone, but he was inconsistent and always in Dave Leitao's dog house. They have players that have shown flashes of potential but Landesberg has been the only consistent piece of the puzzle.

That being said, I expect Tony Bennett to make a big impact on this team. Once he gets to recruit the kind of guys that will work well in his system, I expect Virginia to get back to the NCAA Tournament. That takes time, though. I think his impact will bring a modest improvement from last year, and with a soft non-conference schedule they can get to the NIT.

ACC Countdown Preview

#11. Miami

Games against 2009 NCAA Tournament teams: 11

Best non-conference game: Dec. 2 vs. Minnesota

Projected Starting Five:

F - Dwayne Collins (Senior)

F - Cyrus McGowan (Senior)

F - DeQuan Jones (Sophomore)

G - James Dews (Senior)

G - Malcolm Grant (Sophomore)

When Miami and Virginia Tech moved over to the ACC, critics were definitely lining up to talk about how they would water down the ACC in basketball. So far, that has not happened. Both schools, in fact, have had remarkably similar results in the conference. In the five years since they joined the league, Miami has a total record in ACC games of 33-47. Virginia Tech's is 38-42. Both had one 4-12 year that made the numbers look worse, and both have made one NCAA Tournament in that span.

So where does that bring us for the 2009-2010 Hurricanes? I put up a picture of Jack McClinton because that is the biggest story coming into this year. McClinton was a terrific ACC player who had a knack for hitting clutch shot after clutch shot at the end of games. He was the heart and soul of the Miami team. And now he's gone. While I think Frank Haith is a good coach and has done a great job getting the most out of his team, it's going to be a lot tougher this year.

If you look at the talent, it's just not there. I like Dwayne Collins a lot, and he has the potential to be a great player, but he was underused last year. And Collins is really the only player that I have a lot of confidence in. James Dews is a solid player but not a consistent scorer. Malcolm Grant is a transfer from Villanova and will be playing the point. There are three seniors in the starting five but I still feel like this team doesn't have much experience. And I just don't know where the scoring is going to come from. Haith will keep them in games and win a few but it might be another 4-12 season for Miami.

ACC Countdown Preview

#12. NC State

Games against 2009 NCAA Tournament teams: 13

Best non-conference game: Dec. 5 at Marquette

Projected Starting Five:

F - Tracy Smith (Junior)

F - Dennis Horner (Senior)

F - C.J. Williams (Sophomore)

G - Julius Mays (Sophomore)

G - Javier Gonzalez (Junior)

I think the biggest coaching change mistake in the last decade in the ACC was NC State basically forcing out Herb Sendek. The boosters didn't like the fact that NC State, despite getting to sevearl NCAA tournaments, wasn't at the same level as UNC and Duke. Well, where are they now? Since NC State hired Sidney Lowe, here's how they have done in the ACC?

06-07: 5-11

07-08: 4-12

08-09: 6-10

No NCAA tournament bids in that time. And it doesn't look to get better anytime soon. NC State just doesn't have the talent level to compete in this conference. Their two best players, Brandon Costner and Ben McCauley, have left. They did not reach their potential while at State, but were able to play to a certain style, as big men who could step outside and hit the 3. Who is going to do that this year? The Wolfpack have a solid big man in Tracy Smith, but he works in the paint. Dennis Horner was a role player who is now thrust into a starting job. Javier Gonzalez has showed flashes of being a good point guard, but he has also lost his job at times to Farnold Degand.

I'm not going to come out and say Sidney Lowe is a bad coach, but he definitely seems overmatched. NC State in the past few years could come out firing on all cylinders and look great, then come back the next game and look terrible. And this team has the least amount of talent that NC State has had since Lowe got the job. The Wolfpack have a tough non-conference schedule and will be hard pressed to win enough games to get to any kind of postseason play. Don't be surprised if this time next year the Pack have a different head coach.

Coming Soon!

The start of the ACC basketball season is fast approaching, and it's time to look forward to what to expect this year. Starting at the beginning of the month, I'll take an in-depth look at each team. I'll start with my prediction for the worst team this year, and work my way up from there. There is really no clear-cut winner this year, and a lot of teams should be fairly evenly matched. Here's a look at how the ACC media ranked the teams:

Preseason Poll:
1. Duke and UNC (tie)
3. Clemson
4. Georgia Tech
5. Maryland
6. Wake Forest
7. Florida State
8. Virginia Tech
9. Boston College
10. Miami
11. Virginia
12. NC State

The Future of the ACC

When Virginia Tech, Miami and Boston College joined the ACC, people cried out about that watering down the basketball league with the football powers. And five years later, a funny thing has happened. The basketball hasn’t been watered down at all (all three have made NCAA tournament appearances). But the football seems to be suffering.

Last year the ACC got slammed for its performance throughout the year, with no real dominant team and a lot of mediocre ones. I always defended the conference, but it became clear to me with two games last week that most pundits are right. In Virginia Tech’s loss to Alabama and NC State’s loss to South Carolina, it was clear in both games that the SEC team was better. Using the SEC as an example might be skewed, because it is in my opinion the best league. But losing home games to teams like William and Mary, Richmond and Baylor is not going to get it done. Part of being able to recruit comes from respect, both as a team and a conference. And the ACC teams need to start bringing it. It’s great that they have really competitive games within the conference like Miami vs. FSU and GT vs. Clemson in the last week. But they need to win these out-of-conference games against other Division I teams. Here are a look at this week’s games against other FBS schools:

Duke at Army
UNC at Uconn
Stanford at Wake Forest
Marshall at VT
Kent State at BC
TCU at Virginia

The ACC needs to go at least 5-1 in these games to salvage some respectability back.

Who Was Best in 2008/2009?
As we get ready to start the college football season, I thought it would be a good time to look back and see how the ACC schools stacked up last year. What I did is take the final standings of the 12 teams in football and basketball, and ranked them 1 through 12. The first criteria was conference record, and if there was a tie I went by overall record. The lowest combined score wins. Here’s how things stacked up:

1. UNC (5.5 in football, 1 in basketball)
2. FSU (3.5 in football, 4 in basketball)
3. BC (2 in football, 6 in basketball)
4. Wake (5.5 in football, 3 in basketball)
5. VT (1 in football, 9 in basketball)
6. Maryland (5.5 in football, 7 in basketball)
7. Clemson (8.5 in football, 5 in basketball)
8. Duke (12 in football, 2 in basketball)
9. GT (3.5 in football, 12 in basketball)
10. Miami (8.5 in football, 8 in basketball)
11. NC State (10 in football, 10 in basketball)
12. Virginia (11 in football, 11 in basketball)

As you can see, UNC, with their first place finish in the ACC basketball standings (and National Championship) had the best year. It pays to not be great in one sport and terrible in the other, as Duke came in 8th, and Georgia Tech came in 9th. NC State and Virginia have a lot of work to do.

The Last of the Calm Months

We’re getting now closer to the middle of August and that means the last of the calm months. What I mean is, from September through April there is a lot of high anxiety. Every week is spent watching my teams (the Hokies and Redskins) play, or looking ahead to the next game, or looking back at the last game. There is a lot of stress involved. From mid-April through August though, there’s a cooling off period. The sports that I watch during this time are baseball and golf, which are a lot less stressful.

Which isn’t to say that there’s nothing good on. Just yesterday, you could have seen Tiger Woods win another tournament in epic fashion, capitalizing on one bad hole from Padraig Harrington. It was quite a duel, and I can only think what would have happened if Harrington hadn’t had that horrible 16th. Then at night, you saw the Yankees come back with a barrage in the 8th inning to pull off a 4 game sweep of the rival Red Sox. This must be so demoralizing for Boston. Hey, even the Nationals have won 8 games in a row!

Late August used to be a time for anxiety, with the end of summer and start of the next school year fast approaching. It’s not that anymore, but there is certainly a lot to be excited (or nervous) about. The Hokies come into the season with as high expectations as there has ever been for the program. The Redskins have some great new players and some stability in coaching for the first time in a while and should be in for another dogfight in the NFC East. And before we know it, college basketball season will be approaching.

As we get into the fall season, there will be a fair amount going on with this blog. I will have an extensive look at each ACC team going into the college basketball season as it gets closer. And there might be a little football news sprinkled in.

Some Thoughts on Tom Watson

Boy what a week it was on the Scottish coast at Turnberry. I’ve seen plenty of majors in my life but this one has to rank as one of the most memorable. It’s almost hard to digest what was going on while it was happening, and probably will take some time before we can really look back on it with some perspective.
Tom Watson is one of those guys that has been a sympathetic figure. What happened with his caddy Bruce Edwards was heartbreaking. And to see him play that well at age 59 is…well…unprecedented. The greatest tournament of all time (the ‘86 Masters) was Jack Nicklaus in his 40s making a run. Watson is more than a decade older!
The thing that made him so successful this past week is how he is able to manage a round. He knows exactly what club to hit and where to hit it. You could often see Watson walking up 50 yards in front of his ball to look at what lied ahead on the next shot. How many other players do you think did this?
He also had the right mindset. When he hit a wayward shot or missed a putt, he just shook it off. He said, well that’s over with, and went right on to the next hole. That’s how he was able to stabilize and finish off his rounds well.
So what happened on Sunday? A bunch of players went to the top of the leaderboard only to fall off. And when Tom Watson stood on the 18th tee, he was ahead by 1. He hit a good second shot, only to have it bounce a little too hard. And while it really was heartbreaking to see him miss that putt, it’s hard to fault him for it. Putting was never his strength.
So that left Stewart Cink. It’s a shame Cink was put in the role of villain, because I’ve always liked him. He is a great player who was due for a major win. And Watson just didn’t have enough to sustain him through the playoff.
What makes it such a difficult pill to swallow is you know this was Tom Watson’s last chance: one big chance at a glorious swan song that no one has had before. But I do think years from now we will look at this week and marvel at what the so-called “old geyser” accomplished. Well done Tom.

"It could be worse."
"Yeah, they could be the Nationals."

A conversation between Dick Stockton and Eric Karros during Saturday's Yankees-Angels game. As we get to the dog days of summer, there isn't a whole lot on TV to watch for me except baseball and golf. And unfortunately that means watching the Washington Nationals. Boy is it hard to be a Nats fan.
I watched their game Friday against the Astros, which just seemed to be a microcosm of the year. The starting pitcher, Scott Olsen, got shelled for hit after hit. He was lucky to only give up four runs. The third base coach made a horrible decision to send Nick Johnson home on a single (he was out by a long ways at the plate). And yet somehow down 4-1, the Nats got to the Houston bullpen, scoring 4 runs in the 7th to go up 5 to 4. Now as a Nat fan I knew that lead would not be safe. Sure enough, the Nats give up a run in the eighth and a run in the ninth to lose 6 to 5.
The main problems all year have been the defense and the bullpen. There was one key play in the later innings when Johnson should have caught a foul ball, which would have been the second out. Instead, for some reason he quit on the ball and it fell in. The batter later got a hit, leading to the tying run. New Nat Nyger Morgan even ran all the way from center field to left on one ball to catch a fly ball right in front of the left fielder.
And the bullpen wasn't any better. Joe Beimel and Mike MacDougal could not find the strike zone or get critical outs in the ninth inning.

I don't really know what to do to help this team. There have been bad decisions made all over the place, from management to the coaching staff. And there are probably Triple A teams that have better talent in the bullpen than the Nats. At least the football season starts before too long...

NBA Draft Recap:

With the NBA draft now over, let's take a look at the ACC players selected and where they are going:

12. Gerald Henderson (Duke) - Bobcats
It's probably not much of a surprise that Henderson was the first ACC player picked. And also not a surprise that the Bobcats took him. They seem to love keeping players from the state of North Carolina and I see Henderson being a good NBA player.

13. Tyler Hansbrough (UNC) - Pacers
It probably makes UNC fans mad to see their beloved Hansbrough taken one spot below a Dukie. There has been a lot of talk about the impact Psycho T will have in the NBA. I don't see this pick helping the Pacers all that much but they know they will get a guy who will work harder than anyone else.

16. James Johnson (Wake) - Bulls
James Johnson is a great athlete and probably was just reaching his potential with Wake. He's a solid pick and should help an improving Bulls team.

18. Ty Lawson (UNC) - Timberwolves
This was the third point guard Minnesota took in the first round, leaving me a bit puzzled. They have since traded Lawson to the Nuggets, where he should be just fine backing up Chauncey Billups. His speed is his biggest asset.

19. Jeff Teague (Wake) - Hawks
I thought Teague came out a year too early, and he is one of the bigger question marks in terms of how he will perform in the NBA. I don't see him playing much for Atlanta in his first year.

28. Wayne Ellington (UNC) - Timberwolves
Another Tar Heel picked by the T'Wolves. You can see a trend here: of the first 6 ACC members picked in the draft, they are all from Tobacco Road. Ellington is a terrific shooter, but so was JJ Redick and he's done little in the NBA.

29. Toney Douglas (FSU) - Lakers
This first ACC player outside Tobacco Road taken was traded to the Knicks. I really liked Douglas in college and think there's a place for his toughness and will to win in the NBA. It's too bad he's stuck on the Knicks.

46. Danny Green (UNC) - Cavaliers
Danny Green was a great player in college but I don't see a whole lot coming from him at the next level. He's playing on a good team and will likely get buried on the bench, if he even makes the squad.

51. Jack McClinton (Miami) - Spurs
Like Ellington, McClinton is just a great pure shooter. I think McClinton might have a future in the NBA, though, because he can play the point. He might make a good backup for Tony Parker.

Decision Time

It's decision time for dozens of NCAA players who are on the fence about going pro. It always disappoints me to see the number of people willing to forego years of college to rush onto the big stage. With about a week until players have to make up their minds, here's where the ACC teams stand:

Boston College:
No one leaving early

Clemson:
Trevor Booker declared he is coming back for his senior year. Clemson will be hurt next year though because Terence Oglesby is leaving the team to play in Europe.

Duke:
Gerald Henderson is leaving. His loss will definitely hurt Duke; he was their best player. On the flip side, Kyle Singler is returning, helping to boost a team that should be the favorite for the ACC title.

Florida State:
Soloman Alabi will be returning. He was on some draft boards but after only one year at FSU is not seasoned enough.

Georgia Tech:
Gani Lawal is leaving early, after just two years with the Yellow Jackets. Paul Hewitt has had a tough time keeping his talented players there for more than a year or two and Lawal will be a big loss.

Maryland:
Greivis Vasquez is the first person on this list who has not made his decision yet. His name is in the draft, but he has not hired an agent. I don't see him making much of an impact in the NBA, and he would be a big loss for the Terps.

Miami:
Dwayne Collins was in the same position as Vasquez, but just decided he is coming back to Miami. He was a good albeit inconsistent player down low for the Hurricanes. And with them losing Jack McClinton, Collins' staying is big.

North Carolina:
The biggest loss of probably any team in college basketball. Wayne Ellington will forego his senior season to enter the NBA draft. So will Ty Lawson. On the plus side, freshman Ed Davis will return to school for his second and probably final year for the Heels.

NC State:
Brandon Costner is in the draft but hasn't hired an agent. He has displayed flashes but has been way too inconsisten to be considered seriously for a first round selection. He definitely should come back to State.

Virginia:
Sylven Landesberg was generally thought to be a one and done player most of last year, but he is returning to the Cavaliers. He is the type of talent that I can see doing well in the NBA, but another year of college can't hurt.

Virginia Tech:
No one leaving early

Wake Forest:
Was Wake a one-year wonder? They are losing a fair amount. James Johnson has decided to go pro after his sophomore season. He was one of Wake's best players. Jeff Teague really burst onto the scene in his sophomore year. He is currently on the fence, having declared for the draft but not hired an agent. Good news though: Al-Farouq Aminu will be coming back for his sophomore season. He has the type of body NBA scouts love, but has decided to come back for another year.

It's been a while since I've posted on this blog but I'll try to keep it fairly up to date with the latest offseason news.

Most Dominant Tournament Team?

North Carolina had a great run through this year's NCAA Tournament, winning every game by double digits. So how does this rank in terms of the champions' runs in recent history? I did a little number crunching to find out.

UNC beat Radford by 43, LSU by 14, Gonzaga by 21, Oklahoma by 12, Villanova by 14 and Michigan State by 17. That's an average margin of victory of 20.1 points per game.

Here's how past champions did:

2008, Kansas - 13.8
2007, Florida - 14.1
2006, Florida - 14.3
2005, UNC - 13.8
2004, UConn - 13.3
2003, Syracuse - 9.0
2002, Maryland - 14.0
2001, Duke - 16.6
2000, Michigan St. - 15.3
1999, UConn - 11.8

As you can see, in the last 10 years, no one has even come close to the dominance that UNC had in this year's Tournament. Carolina won each game by an average of about 6 points more than most National Champions from the past decade. In fact, the only team with a bigger overall margin of victory in the Tournament was Kentucky in 1996, at 129 points.

Let the debate begin!

Saturday Semis Recap:

If you take a look at the film of Michigan State's game against Louisville and their game against Connecticut you will see two different teams. Tom Izzo did it again, devising a brilliant strategy to beat UConn and advance to the National Championship game. Off every made or missed basket, the Spartans pushed the ball up the court as fast as possible. This allowed them to do two things: score easy baskets in transition and limit the effectiveness of Hasheem Thabeet. While Thabeet was able to score on the offensive end, he had very little impact defensively. And with UConn's best defensive weapon neutralized life was much easier for Michigan State.
This game was back and forth in the first half and for much of the second until the Spartans started to pull away a bit (just like the Louisville game). Connecticut just couldn't hit outside shots, while Michigan State got some great contributions from role players plus an instant YouTube dunk to spark the "home" crowd. What the Spartans have done in this Tournament has been very impressive.

Just like pretty much every other game in the Tournament, North Carolina had little trouble with Villanova, jumping out in front early and not looking back. There was no point in this game after the first minute where I thought Villanova could actually win. They continually threw up 3-pointer after 3-pointer that clanged off the rim and went right to UNC. Dante Cunningham was the only thing that kept Villanova in it in the first half, and he didn't score in the second. UNC did anything they wanted with just about any player they put on the floor.
I know UNC is immensely talented, but as someone who is not a fan of the Tar Heels I have been very frustrated by the lack of competitiveness in their opponents. LSU is the only team that has showed up to play against the Tar Heels. And the ineptitude of the last two opponents (Oklahoma and Villanova) has been embarrassing. If you look at the 3 point percentage of these two teams, it is incredibly low. And it's not because of good defense, it's because of hurried offense and bad execution.

I am fairly confident that Michigan State will show up against North Carolina. They will have a great homecourt advantage plus the fresh memory of a 35 point loss to the Tar Heels. Clearly Michigan State is a better team than they were during the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. But the question is: can anyone slow down the Tar Heels? When Green, Ellington and Lawson are all hitting shots UNC is impossible to beat. They just have too much talent. What will be interesting to see is what approach Tom Izzo takes. I think he will go back to the type of game plan he had against Louisville to slow the tempo and force the other team to make mistakes. Whatever he chooses, Michigan State better hope it works or it will be a long night.

Final Four Preview:

There's no question we have four teams in the Final Four that have very rich Tournament history. In fact, these teams have won four of the past 10 National Championships. Take a look at their records in the Tournament:

UNC: 100-39 (National titles in 1957, 1982, 1993, 2005)
UConn: 46-27 (National titles in 1999, 2004)
Michigan St.: 47-21 (National titles in 1979, 2000)
Villanova: 48-29 (National title in 1985)

With such sterling resumes we can only hope the games can live up to the billing.

#1 Connecticut vs. #2 Michigan State (6:07) - If you look up and down the UConn roster, you can't help but see a ton of talent. The starting lineup of Price, Austrie, Robinson, Adrien and Thabeet could all end up in the NBA. Obviously the main focus on offense and defense is Thabeet. He is such a force inside that you have to completely change your game plan to account for him. But if you focus too much on Thabeet, someone like A.J. Price or Stanley Robinson can kill you. UConn looked like the best team in the country in January and is rounding back into form after a bit of a late-season slide. They will be very tough to beat.

Much has been made of Michigan State playing basically at home. This will be a factor, but in the Final Four with so many tickets being used by corporations it's not going to be like playing in the Breslin Center. They have one big advantage though: Tom Izzo. His game plan against Louisville was tremendous. And coaching can beat talent, which is the Spartans' main shot. That isn't to say Michigan State doesn't have talent. Kalin Lucas and Travis Walton are great guards and Goran Suton can beat you inside or outside. Michigan State's not going to let UConn dictate the tempo of this game.

#1 North Carolina vs. #3 Villanova (8:47) - Before the season started, pundits handed this year's trophy over to the Tar Heels. There was talk of an undefeated season, one of the best teams ever. People seemed to get that these are 20 year old kids (aka they're human). But Carolina overcame a mid-season 2 game slide and has played brilliantly in the Tournament. When you look at their starting lineup, you don't see a weak link. Like Connecticut, UNC has a starting five that will be playing in the NBA (Lawson, Green, Ellington, Thompson, Hansbrough). In fact the former player of the year is probably the least likely to succeed at the next level. And look at the talent on the bench: Ed Davis is certainly a future lottery pick. The only way Carolina will lose is if they beat themselves or get outcoached.

Much like 24 years ago, Villanova has been the story of the Tournament. They have played as well as any team, in dispatching of Duke and outlasting Pitt. The Wildcats can beat you outside with Scottie Reynolds and a barrage of 3 point shooting. Or they can punish you inside with Dante Cunningham. And they play terrific defense: just watch the film of the Duke game to find that out. If they can frustrate North Carolina's shooters and defend effectively 1-on-1 on Hansbrough, they have a shot. I'm sure UNC did not want to see this Villanova team in the Final Four.

A Word on Tony Bennett:

The news just broke this afternoon that UVA has hired Washington State coach Tony Bennett as its replacement for Dave Leitao. The names that had been mentioned in this coaching search were many, from Tubby Smith to Jeff Capel (both not very realistic). I even heard Bob Knight's name mentioned. But in my opinion this is a solid hire from Craig Littlepage. Tony Bennett has done a great job with Washington State, inheriting the team from his father Dick Bennett, who was a great coach at Wisconsin.

What to expect with Tony Bennett's UVA squad? The game will be slowed down to a crawl. Bennett's teams are the type where the first to 50 wins. His Washington State teams had some of the lowest scoring games among major conference schools. They trying to shorten the game by taking their time on offense and building their foundation on solid defense. The question will be how that style will work in the ACC. There are certainly great defensive teams in the conference, but most teams like to run. The key certainly will be recruiting. I think it will take a couple years to get the type of players that he wants in his system. It won't be an instant turnaround.

Sunday Recap:

Today's pair of Elite Eight games both ended up in double digit margins, although they took different routes to get there. Michigan State turned in a great defensive performance as Tom Izzo outcoached Rick Pitino and won going away. This game was very tight in the first half, but you could tell that Michigan State was playing the way they want to play. Louisville's press was ineffective and Goran Suton was as hot as Terence Williams was cold. Then in the second half other people got involved for the Spartans as they gradually built an insurmountable lead. What has to be disturbing for Louisville fans is how they basically gave up near the end. They obviously thought a 14 point lead with about 2 minutes left was too much and quit trying to get rebounds or play with any sense of urgency.

Oklahoma was able to slow their game with North Carolina down to their tempo, but could not hit any shots at all and fell behind big early. At the beginning, UNC kept doubling Blake Griffin, forcing other Sooners to shoot, and they just kept missing 3 after 3. Then finally Griffin started to get into the act but still no one else helped him out. Oklahoma missed something like their first 15 threes of the game. And even with Tyler Hansbrough basically being a non-factor in this game, UNC pretty much coasted to a double digit win.

Saturday Recap and Sunday Preview:

Now that's more like it. Two great Elite Eight games on Saturday that came down to the wire. Let's start off with the first game. Missouri gave a game effort. After the first couple minutes it was looking like it was going to be a blowout. But the Tigers forced UConn into as many turnovers as I've seen the Huskies commit. Missouri had great efforts from several role players to keep them in it, but in the end UConn was just too talented. Kemba Walker and Stanley Robinson in particular had great games (up until last week I thought his name was Kendall Walker). I've got to hand it to Calhoun and his team -- a lot of people were doubting them after the way they closed out the season with losses to Pitt and Syracuse. But they have risen to the challenge and played to their potential.

In one of the best games of the Tournament, Villanova edged out Pitt with a driving runner by Scottie Reynolds with 0.5 seconds left. Whether you call it the hook and ladder or the picket fence, Jay Wright drew up a great final play. But how much would Villanova have been kicking itself if it lost the game after blowing a 2 point lead with the ball with 10 seconds left? It was a colossal mistake to throw a full court pass that went awry then fouling Levance Fields. I've got to hand it to both teams: neither one would let go until the very end. And what an effort from DeJuan Blair: he was 9 for 9 from the field and grabbed every rebound near the basket. I'd love to see him come back next year.

Let's hope today's games hold up their end of the bargain.

#1 Louisville vs. #2 Michigan State (2:20) - This is a matchup that isn't very sexy, that few people are talking about, but it will be a war. Tom Izzo is not going to let Louisville jump on them like they did Arizona. I could see this one going either way, but I think it will ultimately come down to Louisville having more offensive weapons than Michigan State.

#1 North Carolina vs. #2 Oklahoma (5:05) - This is the matchup everyone is talking about: Blake Griffin against Tyler Hansbrough. Oklahoma's effort against Syracuse was very impressive, but they are going up against a whole different animal. Griffin vs. Hansbrough will certainly be very fun to watch but if the Sooners have a chance they must have another shooting night like they got from Tony Crocker against Syracuse. Because you know Ellington and Lawson are going to bring it for UNC.

Friday Recap and Saturday Preview:

With all the top seeds making it through the first weekend, you would think we would have had better games than these. Out of the 8 Sweet 16 games, only 2 were really good games. We had one Thursday night with Pitt/Xavier and one tonight with Kansas/Michigan State. The Spartans made some good plays down the stretch, with a big and one from Kalin Lucas. And Kansas missed the front end of a critical 1 and 1.

The other three winners Friday really came to play. Louisville just killed Arizona, winning by 39 points. To win a Sweet 16 game by 39 points really is remarkable. It makes you wonder if this game was an aberration for Louisville or a sign they are really the team to beat.
Oklahoma played a very impressive game, making Syracuse's zone look silly. The final margin was not an indication of how much the Sooners and Blake Griffin dominated this game. Syracuse couldn't do anything offensively and at times in the last 10 minutes of the game looked disinterested.
And North Carolina had few problems with Gonzaga, using a blistering shooting display to build a lead that grew to 20+ in the second half. This just was not a good matchup for the Zags, with UNC having more talent at every position.

So with that, we are now to the Elite Eight, with hopefully some more competitive games this weekend. Here's what you can expect Saturday:

#1 UConn vs. #3 Missouri (4:40) - Connecticut has looked very good in this tournament, having no trouble dispatching their first two opponents and shutting the door on Purdue. But Missouri is probably the story of this Elite Eight, with their great offensive performance and frenetic defense. The story of this game will be who can force the other to play at their tempo. If Missouri can speed the game up and force turnovers, they can effectively negate the impact of Hasheem Thabeet and have a good shot at winning. If UConn is able to slow it down and work in their half court offense it might be a long day for the Tigers.

#1 Pittsburgh vs. #3 Villanova (7:05) - If you judge by how these two Big East teams have fared in the first three rounds, you'd have to give Villanova the edge. They have been dominating in their last two victories over UCLA and Duke, two big time teams. The big matchup of the game will be Dante Cunningham against DeJuan Blair. Pitt doesn't play pretty at times but just finds a way to win. Villanova won the regular season meeting between these teams, but that was in Philly. I expect a good, close battle in this one.

Thursday Recap:

There certainly were some interesting results from Thursday's slate of Sweet 16 games. Let's start with the best game of the day, Pittsburgh coming from behind and beating Xavier. Levance Fields did not have a very good game but hit a clutch 3 in the final 2 minutes and then had a critical steal and layup shortly thereafter. DeJuan Blair had a terrific second half, gobbling up every rebound in sight even if his shooting touch was off. And speaking of shooting touches being off, both teams had really poor performances from the field pretty much the whole game.

The other "early" game saw UConn hold off Purdue. This was the first game of the Tournament where you could see UConn have a little chink in their armor. Purdue could not make shots, but were still able to stay within arm's length of UConn the whole game.

The late night games certainly were surprising. My disappointment of the day had to be Duke's second half performance against Villanova. This was a bragging rights game between the Big East and ACC and Duke wilted under the pressure. I thought they were lucky to be down only 3 points at the half, and came out in the second half completely flat. None of Duke's stars could get the ball in the basket. It was definitely an embarrassing performance for a #2 seed in a Sweet 16 game.

Another surprise was Missouri just taking it to Memphis, using a halftime buzzer-beater to build up a 20+ point lead before Memphis made it semi-interesting at the end. I thought coming in Memphis was the more athletic and talented team, but they could not stop Missouri from playing the style they wanted to play. Tyreke Evans was terrific for Memphis but the rest of the team did very little. And Missouri just made too many shots. It will be interesting to see how they match up with Thabeet and the Huskies.

And Then There Were 16...

We've made it to the second weekend of March Madness, and with a lot of top seeds still left in the Tournament there should be some great games to look forward to. Here's your second round viewing guide, with WDBJ games noted in parentheses.

Thursday:

#1 UConn vs. #5 Purdue (7:07) - I took a big chance in this one in my bracket, picking Purdue. But with the way Connecticut has played in the first two rounds, the probably of an upset looks pretty slim. Still, this should be by far the biggest test the Huskies have faced in the Tournament. If Purdue is hitting their 3s, watch out.
#1 Pittsburgh vs. #4 Xavier (7:27, WDBJ) - Pitt struggled in their first round game but came back to win a great game against Oklahoma State. Year in and year out Xavier is one of the most underestimated teams. So this one should be a good defensive battle. If DeJuan Blair is able to stay in the game Pitt should have the advantage.

#2 Memphis vs. #3 Missouri (9:37) - This is definitely the loaded time slot of the two days. Memphis looked terrific against Maryland, but faces a much different challenge in the run and gun Missouri Tigers. The Tigers were able to escape a close one over Missouri, and will need a good shooting day to overcome the length of Memphis.
#2 Duke vs. #3 Villanova (9:57, WDBJ) - This is the Sweet 16 game I'm looking forward to most. Villanova was impressive in a big win over UCLA. Duke struggled to put away Texas, but Coach K always comes ready to play. If Duke's defense can force Villanova away from dumping it in to Dante Cunningham they have a good shot.

Friday:

#1 Louisville vs. #12 Arizona (7:07) - Arizona has had the easiest road to the Sweet 16, which is odd considering they are a 12 seed. But you can bet Louisville is not taking Arizona lightly. A hot team is always a dangerous team, no matter the seed. I just think Louisville has the superior talent and coaching.
#2 Oklahoma vs. #3 Syracuse (7:27, WDBJ) - This should be a great matchup between Syracuse's 2-3 zone and Blake Griffin down low. If the Orange can slow down Griffin, they can make life very tough for Oklahoma's guards. The key for Oklahoma will be using Griffin to get Syracuse in foul trouble: the Orange are not very deep.

#2 Michigan State vs. #3 Kansas (9:37) - There isn't a lot of buzz for this game with some other great matchups but it should be a good one. The teams are fairly easily matched, and should play a fairly low scoring game. The battle between Goran Suton and Cole Aldrich should be the one to watch.
#1 North Carolina vs. #4 Gonzaga (9:57, WDBJ) - These two teams have very similar styles, and that doesn't bode well for the Zags. This game should go up and down, with defense being optional. I love the fact that Gonzaga was able to get back to the Sweet 16 but in the end UNC's superior talent will wear them down.

Sunday Recap:

The first two rounds are in the books and now we have a few days to catch up on everything else in our lives. Overall, it was a very exciting four days. It's funny: it seems like every day the most exciting games were at the end of the day. And while so many games came down to the wire, you look up at the board and in every second round game except one (Purdue) the lower seeded team won. What this means is the Regionals will be terrific.

My vote for best game Sunday would go to Oklahoma State vs. Pitt. These teams played at such a high level, especially in the first half when nobody could miss. Oklahoma State stayed right with Pitt despite an incredible performance from Sam Young. And the game came down to the final minute and a Blair offensive rebound. I would give Marquette vs. Missouri the runner-up, with one of the biggest late game screw-ups I've seen with the Marquette player stepping over the end line.

Biggest disappointment of the day for me was James Harden. The superstar from Arizona State was way too passive against the Syracuse zone, especially in the first half, as he was content to just pass to teammates. The Sun Devils shot 20 3s in the first half, and got too far behind to catch up.

And how about some props for Siena? Every time the Saints looked like they were down and out against Louisville they came back and were in it until the end.

At this point, it's anyone's guess who is the favorite to win it all. Coming up later this week, I'll look ahead to regional action.

Saturday Recap and Sunday Viewing Guide:

Saturday didn't start off so hot, with the first three games all being blowouts. But then things heated up a bit. Purdue and Washington came down to the final minute, with the Boilermakers pulling it out. The game of the day was the mid-major matchup between Gonzaga and Western Kentucky. The Zags had a 9 point lead vanish in the final 2 minutes only to win it with a driving layup by a freshman with 0.9 seconds left. It was great to see Gonzaga get back to the Sweet 16. And Duke pulled off a nice victory over Texas, in a game that was way to choppy with tons of fouls to be all that exciting, but nevertheless ended in the final minute. I have to give credit to LSU, too, for battling back and giving a scare to the Tar Heels.

Biggest disappointment for me was UCLA. They looked completely overmatched against Villanova, turning in their worst performance of the year. The offense looked lost and the defense couldn't stop anyone on Nova from scoring. And it could have been worse: Villanova missed a ton of 3s. This does set up what should be a great matchup between Villanova and Duke.

Most impressive teams on Saturday: UConn and Memphis. Both absolutely destroyed lesser opponents. Memphis looked like it was toying with Maryland.

So here's a look at Sunday's action:

#3 Syracuse vs. #6 Arizona State (12:10, WDBJ) - I am looking forward to this game between two strong defensive teams. Many people have Syracuse as a dark horse to make the Final Four after their performance in the Big East Tournament. But they first have to get by James Harden and the Sun Devils, who don't let teams run and hide.

#4 Xavier vs. #12 Wisconsin (2:20) - I was hoping this would be a great matchup between Xavier and Florida State, but the Badgers spoiled those plans. I would think Xavier's tough defense and balanced scoring would be too much for Wisconsin, but counting Bo Ryan out is not a smart thing to do.
#3 Kansas vs. #10 Dayton (2:30) - Dayton played well in an upset over West Virginia and a lot of people are not sold on the defending champs. That being said, I think Kansas has too much talent inside and outside for an inexperienced tournament team like the Flyers.
#12 Arizona vs. #13 Cleveland State (2:40) - Oh the vaunted 12/13 matchup. Arizona didn't play like a 12 seed Friday and Cleveland State certainly didn't play like a 13 seed. I could honestly see this one going either way. If Cleveland State plays like they did against Wake they will be in the Sweet 16.
#1 Pittsburgh vs. #8 Oklahoma State (2:50, WDBJ) - I am sounding the Upset Alert for this one. Pitt has not played well in their last two games and Oklahoma State is playing very well, coming off the high of their last second win over Tennessee. If Pitt does not bring its A game it could be watching the Tournament from home next week.

#3 Missouri vs. #6 Marquette (4:50) - Marquette hung on to pull out a nice win without their best player against Utah State. But I'm not sure that's going to be enough against a Missouri team that has exceeded expectations this year. This game should be very high octane, played in the 80s.
#2 Michigan State vs. #10 USC (5:00) - USC played pretty well in the second half against Boston College and has a lot of confidence coming into this one. But Tom Izzo is not going to let the Spartans lose to an inferior squad in the first weekend.
#1 Louisville vs. #9 Siena (5:20, WDBJ) - Siena has got to be tired after playing a double overtime thriller late Friday night and having to take on Rick Pitino's squad is no easy task. That being said, I expect the Saints to hang with Louisville for at least the first half.

Second Day Recap and Saturday Viewing Guide:

Friday was a great day of high drama in the Tournament, including two overtime games going on at once. There were classics all over the map, including a great end to the Tennessee/Oklahoma State game. And Wisconsin coming back to defeat Florida State in overtime on a great drive and one. Plus Pitt getting a scare for 90% of the game in their 1/16 game. But the game of the day had to be Siena beating Ohio State in double overtime. This was a game that neither team would relinquish, and it took clutch 3s by the same guy for Siena to tie it in overtime and win it in double overtime (as Bill Raftery said: Onions! Double order!). All in all a great day of action.

Biggest Disappointment: The ACC, specifically second half performances. Boston College was ahead by 4 against USC at halftime and ended up losing by 17. Florida State was up 12 on Wisconsin at the half and didn't score a point in the first 5 or 6 minutes of the second half. And Wake Forest was down 9 at halftime but only saw their deficit grow in the second. I know Cleveland State played a very good game, and I wish I had picked them like I almost did. But what is the deal with Wake Forest? They had a terrific start to the season and closed well in the last week of the regular season with wins at Maryland and Clemson. Then they looked totally flat in an ACC tournament game against Maryland and looked just as bad last night against Cleveland State. It's a shame.

Ok, time to look ahead to Saturday's second round. There should be some great games. Once again, games on WDBJ in Roanoke/Lynchburg are so noted.

#3 Villanova vs. #6 UCLA (1:10, WDBJ) - This is probably the game I want to see most today, and the only one in this time slot. Villanova looked shaky against American and needed a second half comeback to win. UCLA edged one out over always dangerous VCU. I picked the Bruins to win this one, which will be tough in Philadelphia. The matchup to watch will be Villanova's guards against UCLA's tough defense.

#2 Memphis vs. #10 Maryland (3:20, WDBJ) - Before Thursday I would have thought this wasn't going to be much of a game. Memphis is just too powerful and good defensively for the Terps. But after Memphis' scare against Cal State Northridge, who knows? Maryland has been playing really well the last couple weeks and at this point an upset wouldn't shock me.
#1 UConn vs. #9 Texas A&M (3:35) - The Aggies had one of the most impressive wins of Day 1, but then against UConn won by nearly 60 points. The Huskies to me are the shakiest #1 seed but they have too much talent for A&M.

#4 Washington vs. #5 Purdue (5:40) - This should be a great battle between two very solid teams. Washington had little trouble dispatching of Mississippi State, and has several different weapons with Jon Brockman and Justin Dentmon. For Purdue, if they are hitting their 3s they are very hard to beat. Robbie Hummel has been great since coming back from injury. Expect this one to go down to the wire.
#1 North Carolina vs. #8 LSU (5:45, WDBJ) - The Heels looked very impressive in a thrashing of Radford, and of course all anyone is talking about is whether Ty Lawson will be able to play. LSU has some offensive weapons and a tough defense but I don't think they can match up in a track meet in UNC's backyard.
#2 Oklahoma vs. #10 Michigan (5:50) - Michigan had a nice win over Clemson, and with Beilein's 1-3-1 zone can give anyone fits. The question is can it slow down Blake Griffin? Oklahoma had no problem in their first game but will definitely have more of a challenge here.

#4 Gonzaga vs. #12 Western Kentucky (8:10) - The Zags have had one of the best draws, playing in nearby Portland and facing an Akron team that few people thought would make any noise. Now they get a Western Kentucky team that is good, but not athletic enough to match up with them. It would be a nice step for Mark Few's team to get back to the Sweet 16.
#2 Duke vs. #7 Texas (8:15, WDBJ) - A lot of people seem to be smelling upset here. And if Texas had played up to potential all year they certainly would not have been a 7 seed. Texas has the pieces to put together an upset but Duke's discipline and outside shooting should be enough to get them to next week.