Tuesday, December 28, 2010

The Week Ahead

It's close to the end of 2010 and most teams are still on their Christmas break. There aren't many more games to close out the year, but there are a bunch of good matchups for the first weekend of 2011. Here's a preview of the week's best games:

North Carolina at Rutgers (Tuesday, 9:00 p.m.)
Rutgers isn't exactly a powerhouse, but they have already had a double digit win over Miami. They haven't matched up very well with UNC in recent years, though, and I don't expect the Heels to lose in New Jersey.

Boston College at Rhode Island (Wednesday, 7:00 p.m.)
The Eagles have played well so far this year, but have a tough matchup with Rhode Island. Hokie fans remember the Rams as the team that beat the Hokies in Blacksburg in the NIT last year.

Wake Forest at Richmond (Wednesday, 7:00 p.m.)
For a young team that has really struggled, this week could put them in full crisis mode. First comes a road game against a Richmond team that has already beaten Purdue. They did lose to Georgia Tech, though, so Wake could pull the surprise.

Boston College at South Carolina (Saturday, 5:30 p.m.)
Boston College has certainly scheduled a tough week. If they survive their road game against Rhode Island, they might be in for a letdown against a South Carolina team that isn't very strong but is still an SEC team.

Gonzaga at Wake Forest (Sunday, 1:00 p.m.)
Wake Forest had a big win last year when they went up to Spokane and shut down the Zags. This year Gonzaga is the team that is likely to come on the road and get the win. If Wake loses both games this week, you can bet the Deacon nation will be in an uproar over Dino Gaudio's firing.

LSU at Virginia (Sunday, 5:30 p.m.)
Virginia is trying to battle some confidence issues, coming off two poor performances in a row. They should be able to beat two BCS conference foes this week, playing Iowa State and LSU, both at home. LSU has struggled mightily since losing to UNC in the tournament a couple years ago.

Miami at Duke (Sunday, 7:45 p.m.)
The first ACC conference game of 2011 will likely be a blowout. This will be Duke's most competitive game playing without Kyrie Irving. But even without him, they are much better than Miami, especially at home.

Wednesday, December 22, 2010

Pre-Christmas Games Preview

Most ACC teams are trying to get in one last game before Christmas, and some will need to guard against being tripped up by a mediocre team. It already happened once this week, with Wake losing at home against Presbyterian, and almost happened to Virginia, which escaped with a one point win over Norfolk State.

Here are a few games that should be on your radar:

Clemson at College of Charleston (Wednesday, 7:00 p.m.)
The College of Charleston already played Maryland tough in College Park and will be looking for a victory over an ACC team for the second straight year. Clemson is a better team than Charleston but don't be surprised if the home team wins this one.

Georgia Tech at Siena (Wednesday, 7:00 p.m.)
Siena isn't what it once was, with Coach Fran McCaffrey gone. But they are still a decent mid-major team and could present Georgia Tech with some problems up in New York.

Virginia Tech at St. Bonaventure (Thursday, 7:00 p.m.)
St. Bonaventure hasn't been relevant for several years, but is starting to play better and has a victory over St. Johns this year. They could catch Virginia Tech napping.

Florida State vs. TBA in Hawaii (Thursday)
The Seminoles are playing in the Diamond Head Classic in Hawaii, in a tournament that has a decent field. This second round game will likely be played against Butler, with a final round matchup coming Saturday against potentially Baylor.

Monday, December 20, 2010

Weekend Recap

There were some good games this weekend, and I think we learned more about some of the teams in the ACC. Here are my impressions:

-UNC played well despite losing a virtual home game against Texas. It seems to me that the Heels are still trying to figure out their offensive identity with a lot of guys who do not have much game experience. If I were them, I'd keep getting the ball down low to Tyler Zeller. I am impressed by how much he has improved, and he has gotten to the point where he is almost unstoppable down low. They still need to figure out how best to use freshman Harrison Barnes.

-Miami had a golden opportunity to knock off a surprisingly good team in UCF but really struggled in the second half. They were up at halftime, but really unraveled down the stretch. Once they got behind, it seemed like they got in panic mode, not running any set offenses, but choosing to have one of their guards drive into the lane and throw up an off-balance shot. If they didn't get fouled, it was one and done and UCF took advantage.

-Virginia Tech may have turned the corner. They played their best game of the year against a Mississippi State team that is talented, albeit gassed after playing five games in a week. Still, even against a tired team, for the Hokies to win by 30 is quite a feat. If they can continue to get consistent production out of people like Erick Green and Victor Davila, they can make their goal of the NCAAs.

-NC State didn't take advantage of a game that really would have looked good on their resume had they'd won. Arizona is a solid team with some NBA caliber players. But playing at home, the Wolfpack should have been able to take care of business. Instead, they fell behind and only got into more of a hole. They were playing a very aggressive form of defense, which led to a lot of easy Arizona baskets.

-It was a good win for Georgia Tech down in the Bahamas. They were able to knock off a Richmond team that many people think is a lock for the NCAA Tournament. The Yellow Jackets were able to win by 13 despite playing much of the game without Iman Shumpert.

I'll be back later in the week with a look ahead at some decent non-conference matchups.

Thursday, December 16, 2010

The State of the ACC

As it's about a month into the season, it's a good time to look at how the ACC teams have been progressing thus far this year. So here is the status report:

Boston College (8-2)
The Eagles have surpassed expectations so far. They performed admirably in Orlando, beating a good Texas A&M squad and winning big over California. BC also has a very solid road win over Maryland and an underrated win at UMass. Steve Donahue has to be happy with how his first year has gone so far.

Clemson (5-4)
Clemson lost quite a bit from last year's team, and the transition to both new players and a new coach has been understandably tough. The Tigers have lost all of their games against good teams, with the best victory being against Seton Hall at a neutral site. The home loss to Michigan was disappointing, and they missed an opportunity down the stretch at Florida State.

Duke (10-0)
The Duke Blue Devils have done what everyone expected them to do: win, win, win. They have played a pretty impressive schedule, and have racked up wins against Kansas State, Michigan State, Butler and Marquette. Most of their games have been blowouts. There is some cause for concern with Kyrie Irving's injury, but even if he is out for the year they should be in good shape.

Florida State (8-2)
Florida State has a decent record thus far, but it still feels as if they haven't played up to their potential. The Seminoles have lost two games, both against ranked teams, but they were both at home. In those games, they only scored a combined 95 points. Florida State's best non-conference win is hard to pick out - perhaps a 23 point win at Florida International.

Georgia Tech (5-4)
The Yellow Jackets are another team that has underperformed so far. They started out the year by losing their second game, a 17 point loss at Kennesaw State. Georgia Tech had a good win in Atlantic City over UTEP, but followed that up with three straight losses, including a home loss to rival Georgia. They appear to be one of the weaker teams in the ACC.

Maryland (7-4)
Maryland has shown promise at times this year, despite being very young. I think they are on pace for a solid year, given Gary Williams' track record. The Terps played well in New York, despite losing two games to Pitt and Illinois. They did blow out Penn State on the road, but lost to Temple and at home to Boston College. The jury is still out on Maryland.

Miami (7-2)
Miami has flown under the radar at the start of the year, much as they did last year. They have played decently well this year, with the exception of a 16 point loss to Rutgers. The Canes have two decent home wins, against Ole Miss and West Virginia, but other than that have not been tested. They don't play another road game until January 2nd at Duke.

North Carolina (7-3)
The Tar Heels have taken some time to come into their own. Along the way, they struggled to losses against Minnesota and Vanderbilt. UNC also had a loss at Illinois which wasn't very close. But UNC has put together a good win against Kentucky and appears to be picking up steam with a matchup at Texas up next.

N.C. State (5-3)
The high expectations for NC State this year haven't seemed to filter down to the team yet. The Wolfpack played horribly against Wisconsin and got blown out at a neutral site by Georgetown. Their best win is against George Mason. With a game against Arizona upcoming, NC State needs to get things together. Getting Tracy Smith back would help.

Virginia (6-3)
Virginia has been one of the few teams in the ACC that could be counted as a surprise. The Cavaliers started the season off as most people expected: blowout losses to Stanford and Washington. But they rebounded to beat Oklahoma by 18 and have since piled up road wins against Minnesota and Virginia Tech. The Cavaliers look to be a force to be reckoned with this year.

Virginia Tech (5-4)
It would definitely be fair to say the Hokies have been a disappointment. Their early season struggles have been well documented (including in this blog). The only loss that could be counted as a bad loss was their home defeat to Virginia, but they really should have beaten Purdue. The best win so far is a neutral site victory over Oklahoma State, with a chance at a better one this weekend against Mississippi State.

Wake Forest (6-4)
Wake Forest's record isn't much different from many other teams, but they are clearly the worst team in the ACC. They have already lost to Stetson, VCU, Winthrop and UNC Wilmington, with the first three being at home. In their last game, they won at home by only two points to a UNC Greensboro team that hasn't won a game this season. In fact, UNC Greensboro's previous best loss was by 12 points to NC A&T. Not good in Winston Salem.

To recap, a lot of the ACC teams have some work to do to earn respectability for the conference. Most years, there would be a lot of teams with no more than two losses. Right now, 8 of the 12 teams have at least 3 losses. And time is running out to pile up the non-conference wins.

Monday, December 13, 2010

The Week Ahead

We aren't even halfway into December, and three conference games are already in the books. I've got to hand it to Boston College - they had the most impressive performance of the weekend. BC was able to go to Maryland and win a shootout, playing much better than the home team down the stretch. Of the three new coaches, Steve Donahue inherited the team with the most returning talent. But he has still done a fine job so far. For Maryland, this is not a good loss. I am fairly confident they will be able to turn it around, though.

In the other conference game, Florida State was able to outlast Clemson. For years this was the game between the two worst teams in the conference, and I think there is still not much national interest for this matchup. This game was marked by a bunch of missed layups and dunks. But in the end, Florida State got the win they were expected to get.

This is another week where teams are on their exam break, so not much action. But here are the marquee games worth looking out for:

Oregon at UVA (Friday, 8:00 p.m.)
After spending a long time on the road, UVA is home for the rest of the year. This is notable because they are hosting a BCS foe, but Oregon doesn't have a lot of firepower and has to travel across the country. UVA should win this one.

Texas vs. UNC (Saturday, 4:00 p.m. in Greensboro)
This made for TV matchup should be a virtual home crowd for the Heels. They got one solid win over Kentucky and will be looking to build a little momentum. Texas is a bit of an enigma, playing well in New York but losing badly on the road at Southern Cal.

Georgia Tech vs. Richmond (Saturday, 5:00 p.m. in the Bahamas)
This is game one of the Battle at Atlantis, and is a tough matchup for the Yellow Jackets. Richmond is considered a team on the rise and already has a neutral site win over Purdue to its credit. The Jackets are coming off a tough loss at home to rival Georgia and could use a boost.

Virginia Tech vs. Mississippi State (Saturday, 8:00 p.m. in the Bahamas)
The second game of the Battle at Atlantis features two teams who really want to get back to the NCAA Tournament. The Hokies got a nice win over Penn State but have still underachieved. Mississippi State will be looking to get back to full strength with Renardo Sidney returning to the team.

Wake Forest at Xavier (Saturday, 8:00 p.m.)
Wake Forest has really struggled in the early going this year, and their schedule is not getting any easier. A trip to Xavier will be a tough test for Jeff Bzdelik's crew. Thus far Wake's best win is a home win over Iowa. Keeping the Xavier game close will probably be a victory for the Deacs.

Arizona at N.C. State (Sunday, 4:30 p.m.)
This is a rematch of a very competitive game from last year. The Wolfpack have a lot of promise but have yet to deliver with a big win, losing all three of their games against BCS conference opponents. Arizona is expected to contend for an NCAA berth this year, and would be a good win for the Pack.

Wednesday, December 08, 2010

What's Wrong with the Hokies?


Since there aren't many games going on this week, that gives me a little time to devote to a topic near and dear to my heart: the Hokie basketball team. I have seen the team come a long way since I started following it in 2002. I really thought that the Hokies would never make the tournament again after their last appearance in 1996. But they managed to grow the program to where it has at least earned respectability.

All that being said, this season came in with as high expectations as I'd ever seen for the Hokies. And with a 4-4 record to date, there has been much groveling and complaining and jumping off the bandwagon. So it begs the question: what's wrong?

The main reason I can point to is chemistry. The guys on the floor don't seem to have the same level of trust that they had last year. And that is puzzling, considering it is the same five guys out there. They aren't moving the ball on offense and working together to generate turnovers on defense. On a 3 and 1 break, the ball handler will shoot a contested shot rather than pass to the open man. When guys are getting screened on defense, another defender is not helping out to pick up the open man. And I could go on and on. The team just doesn't look like it's playing together. It has in moments this season: like the last 5 minutes against Oklahoma State and the second half against UVA.

Another problem: the inability to come through down the stretch. The times that the Hokies have performed well in the past have been when they have been able to take over the last few minutes of a game to close out the other team. They did this nicely against Oklahoma State. But against Purdue, they had a four point lead and the Boilermakers on the ropes. But they didn't seem to know what to do with the ball in the last couple minutes and lost. Against UVA, they had chances to tie or take the lead and really deal a knockout blow, but didn't.

You can point to one player in one game and say "Well Malcolm played poorly" or "Dorenzo had a bad game." But good players are going to have bad games. It happens all the time. Good teams are able to win despite this. Their other players (who aren't slouches - they are scholarship athletes at an ACC school) pick up the slack. This has also been lacking.

The last reason I will point to is the sheer lack of manpower. Allan Chaney went out, then J.T. Thompson - both before the season. Cadarian Raines missed a significant amount of time. And just this week, Ben Boggs announced he will transfer. That leaves 10 scholarship players. If Raines has to miss a lot more time, that number is down to 9. Nine scholarship players is practically unheard of - a lot of teams have 13! It is very difficult to win with that lack of depth, and getting no spark off the bench.

One last point: there has been a lot of criticism of Seth Greenberg on Virginia Tech message boards. I don't know whether Seth is the problem or not. All I know is that his coaching move at the end of the Oklahoma State game single handedly won the game. He has talked about players needing to be more about the team than themselves - is that coaching? Maybe. Maybe Seth Greenberg has hit his ceiling as a coach and the Hokies need another coach to take that next step. But you better believe he is working his heart out to try to come up with a fix.

The good news is, there is plenty of time. The Hokies have 15 more conference games to play, many against teams with inferior talent. They can get out of their funk. But the road back starts with the next game.

Monday, December 06, 2010

Weekend Recap

It was a pretty good weekend for the ACC, with some key wins against non-conference foes.

Let's start in Chapel Hill, where UNC got a much needed win against Kentucky. The Tar Heels have had the Wildcats' number in recent years, and needed this confidence builder. Neither team really got it done on the offensive end, especially late in the game. But Tyler Zeller knocked down some big free throws down the stretch.

Butler played their butts off to a first half draw in a rematch of the NCAA Championship game against Duke. I don't know if it was a hangover from their game against Michigan State or more about what Butler did, but Duke struggled more in that first half than they have all year. That being said, they were still able to win by 12.

Miami got a huge win over West Virginia. The Hurricanes also needed a confidence boost after struggling some in November, and beating the Mountaineers is a good step forward.

NC State held tough against Syracuse, leading late in the game, only to see things slip away. I'm not sure if Wolfpack fans will be heartened by their improved effort or disappointed because of the loss. Either way, NC State has some work to do before conference play starts.

Clemson lost a tough battle against its biggest rival, South Carolina. The Tigers have been struggling some in the early season as well, and look like they will endure some growing pains in the first year under Brad Brownell.

Virginia continued its strong play of late with a road upset of Virginia Tech. The Cavaliers came out hot in the first half, and held onto their 12 point halftime lead. This speaks a lot to the resiliency of Tony Bennett and the Cavs after their tough stretch a couple weeks ago. For Virginia Tech, there are a lot more questions than answers. They seem to lack chemistry, and need to get things together quickly or it will be a very disappointing season.

Maryland strugged offensively against a tough Temple team, trailing by double digits at one point at the BB&T Classic. They were able to make a game of it, losing by 3, but they have to think this loss was a missed opportunity.

The schedule dries up a little bit this week as some teams go on a break for exams. There are only two games of note during the week:

Tuesday: Georgia at Georgia Tech (7:00 p.m.)
Wednesday: Providence at Boston College (7:00 p.m.)

Friday, December 03, 2010

Challenge Winners & Losers

Another ACC/Big Ten Challenge is in the books and for the second straight year, the Big Ten won. The ACC did manage to make it competitive on Wednesday, losing by a narrow 6-5 margin. So let's take a look back at the winners and losers.

Winners

Virginia - Virginia pulled off the biggest surprise of the challenge, with a huge road win at Minnesota. The way the Cavaliers had played thus far this year, no one thought they could win going away against a Gophers team predicted to finish in the top 25. This could be a big momentum builder for them.

Northwestern - The Wildcats have never made it to the NCAA Tournament, and are hoping this will be the year. They blasted Georgia Tech at home, scoring at will. This is a good sign for a team hoping to take that next step.

Michigan - The Wolverines came up with a big road win against Clemson. Michigan has been a much improved team since John Beilein took over, and looks to make the NCAA Tournament again this year.

Maryland - The Terps started out slowly against Penn State, but ended up winning by 23. Penn State isn't the strongest team, but beating any Big Ten team by 23 points on the road gets you in the winners column.

Losers

NC State - What happened, Sidney Lowe? There is no shame in losing at Wisconsin. But losing by 39 points, with a second half that was completely meaningless, is pretty sad. State only scored 48 points and gave up 87 to a team that usually plays in the 50s.

Virginia Tech - The Hokies played much better in their Big Ten game against Purdue, and really should have won. But mistakes down the stretch meant another loss and another missed opportunity in the non-conference. Fans will have to tone down their expectations for this season.

Florida State - Ohio State is an impressive team, but Florida State has made a living in recent years out of beating higher ranked teams at home. They have been pretty disappointing so far this year.

Iowa - The Hawkeyes had Wake Forest on the ropes in Winston-Salem but let them off the hook, giving up a late 3. Iowa isn't going anywhere this year but this would have been a good win for them.

This weekend is full of very strong matchups. Among the highlights: UNC vs. Kentucky, Duke vs. Butler, West Virginia at Miami, Maryland vs. Temple, and the first conference game of the year: UVA at Virginia Tech. A full recap of those games is coming up on Monday.