Season in Review

Florida State

23-11 (11-5 ACC)

If you are Florida State fan you have to be pretty happy with how this past season went. For years Florida State had a tough time breaking through that NCAA Tournament barrier: they went 8-8 or so every year and just missed out. Then, they started making it to the tournament but couldn't win a game. This year, though, they were able to win two games, and made it to the Sweet 16. You have to give Leonard Hamilton a lot of credit for the job he did. They were without their best player, Chris Singleton, for much of the ACC season, but held it together very well.

It wasn't the smoothest of runs for FSU. They lost two big home games in a row in November, then lost a stretch of 3 out of 4 at the start of the ACC season. But a win over #1 Duke catapulted them to 5 wins in 6 games. The only home game they lost in conference was to UNC, and they went a respectable 4-4 in the ACC on the road. When Singleton was out, players like Bernard James and Derwin Kitchen really picked up the slack. It was really a team effort, with only Singleton averaging more than 11 points per game.

Biggest Win:

57-50 vs. Texas A&M on 3/18 (NCAA Tournament)

This was the win that got FSU over the hump of not having won a game in the NCAA Tournament. They were coming off a heartbreaking loss to Virginia Tech in the ACC Tournament and not much was expected of them in the Big Dance. But the Seminoles responded, even without a healthy Singleton, and this win propelled them to an upset win over Notre Dame.

Worst Loss:

65-60 at Auburn on 1/3

Florida State got a lot of grief for this loss to a really terrible Auburn team. There's not much to say about this one except that the Seminoles shot 35% against a team that went 11-20 this year.

Postseason Play:

The postseason was a mixed bag for FSU. They lost in crazy fashion in the quarterfinal of the ACC Tournament, on a basket by Kitchen that was disallowed at the buzzer against Virginia Tech. Rather than letting that ruin their season, though, the team responded. As a 10 seed, they beat Texas A&M by 7 and Notre Dame by 14. In the Sweet 16, bad possessions at the end of regulation and overtime doomed the Seminoles to a one point loss against VCU.

Looking Ahead:

The question about Florida State now is whether they will be able to sustain success. They have turned into the third best school in the ACC behind North Carolina and Duke, and will be looking to make their fourth straight NCAA berth. They obviously suffer a big loss with Singleton leaving early for the NBA. Kitchen, the second leading scorer, leaves as well. But the only other seniors on the squad never played. They should be quite good with Michael Snaer running the show in the backcourt, and James and Xavier Gibson in the frontcourt. The team's strength will continue to be defense, and if they can develop some consistent 3-point shooters they can make another Sweet 16 run.

Season in Review

Duke

32-5 (13-3 ACC)

The expectations were sky high for Duke this year, coming off a National Championship run and returning nearly all of their players. Nothing they did at the beginning of the season did anything to dampen these expectations. Then, ironically, the season took a turn during the Butler game. Star guard Kyrie Irving got injured, forcing him out for the rest of the regular season. Duke still played pretty well without him, losing only 4 games. There were some signs of weakness, though, especially in their losses.

One of their main problems was the relative ineffectiveness of Kyle Singler. With all the buildup, Singler really had a disappointing year. He especially had a rough stretch near the end of the ACC season. Singler ended up scoring 16.9 points per game, but he only shot 32% from the 3 point line. A positive for Duke was the emergence of players like Seth Curry. Curry ended up averaging 9 points per game but came up big in some big games (especially their home game against UNC).

Of course any discussion of Duke starts and ends with Nolan Smith. He had a monster year, carrying the team on his back in some games, and was really a star for the Blue Devils. Smith ended up with 20.6 points per game, shooting nearly 46% from the field and leading the team in assists. Duke has to be disappointed with the way they ended the season, and I think most of that goes back to Irving. He returned for the NCAA Tournament, and that had a big impact on the team's chemistry. They struggled in a close win against Michigan and then were flat out demolished in the second half against Arizona.

Biggest Win:

75-58 vs. North Carolina on 3/13 (ACC Tournament Final)

Duke always gets up for the ACC Tournament, and played that whole week like they had something to prove. Many people thought UNC would be able to beat them for the second time in a week, but the Devils were having none of that. They controlled this game from start to finish and looked great in building a comfortable lead against their hated rivals. You could tell that the team really wanted that game in their postgame interviews.

Worst Loss:

93-78 at St. John's on 1/30

You could put the loss to Arizona in this spot, but I look at the January non-conference game against the Johnnies. This was the game where you really could see a chink in the armor. Duke was down by 21 points at halftime in a game that most people expected them to win. This was only the second loss of the season and the first one in blowout fashion.

Postseason Play:

As I said before, Duke played very well in the ACC Tournament, rolling to fairly easy wins over Maryland, Virginia Tech and UNC. Their smallest margin of victory was 14. Then the team took a #1 seed into the NCAA Tournament. They had no trouble with Hampton, but had to survive a last-second shot attempt to beat Michigan by 2. Then came the game against Arizona. They played solidly in the first half but it all fell apart for Duke in the second half and they ended up losing by 16. Definitely a bitter end to a season that had a lot of promise.

Looking Ahead:

There is no such thing as rebuilding at Duke, and to think that they will be anything other than great next year is foolish. The team definitely loses a lot, with Singler and Smith graduating and Irving leaving early for the NBA. That represents the top 3 scorers. There is still a lot of talent remaining, though, with Curry and Andre Dawkins in the backcourt. They will be joined by the highly touted Austin Rivers (son of Doc), who will be a freshman. The frontcourt will basically be all Plumlees, and Ryan Kelly. Look for Duke to be in the preseason top 10.

Season in Review

Clemson

22-12 (9-7 ACC)

Like Boston College, you'd have to say this season was a pleasant surprise for Clemson. Even coming off a string of three consecutive NCAA Tournament berths, not a whole lot was expected of this team. They had a fairly unknown commodity in Coach Brad Brownell, who was coming from Wright State. Their best player, Trevor Booker, was gone. And the Tigers came out of the gate a bit cold - they lost four games early in the season. But Clemson was able to turn it around by the end of the year. They played very well down the stretch, going from a team off the bubble to one that played its way into the NCAA Tournament.

The best player for Clemson this year was Demontez Stitt. The senior guard led the team in scoring and had the ability to knock down big shots. The team wasn't just about one player though: six players averaged at least 7.8 points per game. And Clemson was able to play lockdown defense, changing from that pressing style of Oliver Purnell to a more tight man-to-man.

Biggest Win:

70-47 vs. Boston College on 3/11 (ACC Tournament Quarterfinals)

What I had as BC's worst loss is Clemson's biggest win. Many people saw this game as a winner is in, loser is out of the NCAA Tournament. And that's how it ended up playing out. Clemson played perhaps its best game of the year in this one, beating up on BC from the very start. They used this momentum in another solid game against UNC in the semis, just running out of steam at the end.

Worst Loss:

49-47 at Virginia on 2/2

It's not the fact that they lost in Charlottesville, because Virginia was not that bad of a team. But this game was ugly with a capital U. Clemson was actually down big with horrendous offensive numbers for much of the game before mounting a late rally to make it close. I'm sure Coach Brownell would agree this was probably their worst performance.

Postseason Play:

Clemson played very well in the postseason. After earning a #4 seed in the ACC Tournament, they beat up on #5 seed Boston College. Then they took on UNC in a virtual road game and had a great game, only to fall in overtime. Clemson then got into the dreaded play-in game in the NCAA Tournament and beat up on a UAB team that was overmatched. They had a very quick turnaround against #5 seed West Virginia and actually had a healthy lead through much of the first half but tired down the stretch and ended up losing by 8.

Looking Ahead:

You have to like what Coach Brownell did this year with a group that wasn't his own players. Next year should be set up pretty well, as the Tigers don't lose too much. Stitt and Jerai Grant do graduate. They represent the team's top two scorers this year. But the Tigers do return an emerging talent in Milton Jennings. Andre Young needs to continue to grow as a shooter, as he will be the main outside game next year. And expect a good year out of Devin Booker (Trevor's brother). If Tanner Smith can become a more consistent scorer in the backcourt Clemson should be in good shape to make a fifth consecutive NCAA Tournament.

Season in Review: Boston College

The dust has settled on the ACC season and it's time to look back and see how each team did. Did the season perform up to expectations? Or was it a disappointment? We start with Boston College.

Boston College

21-13 (9-7 ACC)

You have to say this season was a pleasant surprise for BC. They were coming off a bad season, lost their best player from the year before (Tyrese Rice) and had a new coach. But you have to give Steve Donahue credit. He took what was a fairly experienced team that was used to playing the flex offense and got them to buy into his system. The team started off well, beating Texas A&M and Cal in Orlando. They started the ACC season with a road win over Maryland and put up some solid wins from there on out.

The season did end in disappointing fashion for BC. They lost by a wide margin in a key ACC Tournament game against Clemson, and didn't make the cut for the Big Dance. They ended up losing in the second round of the NIT, at home against Northwestern. For the Eagles this year, it was all about Reggie Jackson. Jackson ended up scoring more than 18 points per game and ran the point efficiently.

Biggest Win:

67-65 vs. Texas A&M on 11/25 (in Orlando)

This was the game where people started to take notice of Boston College. They played a tough Texas A&M team that was a quality tournament team and got out to a hot start. This was the opening game in the Old Spice Classic, which ended up being a 2-1 week for BC.

Worst Loss:

70-47 vs. Clemson on 3/11 (ACC Tournament Quarterfinals)

This was probably the game that kept BC out of the NCAA Tournament. They had losses to worse teams than Clemson, but there wasn't a more important loss. And it wasn't just the fact that they lost - they got blown out. After this game, the team really didn't have an argument for getting left out of the tournament.

Postseason Play:

You'd have to say that the postseason was disappointing. BC won their first round game in the ACC Tournament over Wake Forest before losing to Clemson. In the NIT they went down to McNeese State and won before losing to Northwestern before a sparse home crowd on a Saturday morning.

Looking Ahead:

Much of what happens with BC next year depends on what Reggie Jackson does. Right now, he has declared for the NBA Draft but has not hired an agent, leaving open the possibility that he comes back. Even if Jackson does come back, there isn't much around him. BC loses seniors Joe Trapani, Josh Southern, Biko Paris, Corey Raji, Courtney Dunn and Josh Cahill. That represents four of the top five scorers this year. The next best player left is Danny Rubin, who averaged four points per game. I think Donahue is a good coach who will do well at BC, but next year will probably see some growing pains.

Coming Soon!

Sadly, the college basketball season is over. What was a very interesting tournament ended in a lackluster championship game, with Butler turning in one of the worst final game performances I've ever seen. That shouldn't take anything away from what Butler accomplished this year (and last year). That remains one of the best feats in my lifetime in the sport.

With the season now over, I will be taking a look back. Once Miami hires a new coach, I will start running down all the teams in the conference - did this past season live up to expectations? And what does next year look like? Stay tuned!

National Final Preview

Last year it really seemed like Butler had a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to win the National Championship. No one would have expected them to get back to the game with another chance the very next year. What they have done is truly remarkable. I said this morning that Brad Stevens should get an automatic invite into the Hall of Fame if Butler wins this game - and I say that only half-jokingly.

Connecticut has defied the odds this season too. No one expected them to do much this year, coming off an NIT season. But they have won 10 straight tournament games, led by their star Kemba Walker. I think if Walker has a good game, UConn will be very difficult to beat. Their bigs will give Matt Howard problems, and Butler has to have a good game from Shelvin Mack to compete. Of course, Butler has found ways to win against seemingly insurmountable odds already this year (and last). So counting them out is not something I would recommend. I will go with UConn, though, in what should be an excellent game.

Pick: Connecticut

Final Four Preview

What a wild NCAA Tournament this has been! This is the first year that I can remember throwing my bracket in the trash before the Final Four. The last four teams include one from the Colonial and one from the Horizon leagues. And they are playing each other! Conventional wisdom says the winner of the second semifinal game will win it all, but I threw conventional wisdom out the window a while ago.

#11 VCU vs. #8 Butler (6:07 p.m.) - I don't know which is the better story - VCU or Butler. The fact that Butler has made two straight Final Fours is remarkable - one of the best achievements in the history of college basketball. VCU meanwhile is the darling of the tournament and the team that has pulled off the most shocking upset (over Kansas). I think the difference between these two teams is experience. VCU has never been even close to the Final Four, and will be playing in the biggest stage of their life. Butler has been there done that, and has a seasoned and battle-tested team. VCU certainly can win this game, but I'm going to go with Butler. Pick: Butler

#4 Kentucky vs. #3 Connecticut (8:47 p.m.) - It's hard to believe that a program with the tradition of Kentucky hasn't been to the Final Four since 1998. But here they are with as good a chance as any to take home the title. This has to be rewarding for John Calipari, especially since everyone expected them to be here last year and they couldn't get the job done. It will be interesting to watch Kentucky's young team go against Kemba Walker, the kind of star that deserves to have that Final Four stage. Besides Jeremy Lamb, we'll see what other players can step up for Connecticut. I think this will be an excellent game, and for the second time this year UConn will beat Kentucky. Pick: Connecticut

NCAA Tournament: Saturday Preview

We are down to the Elite 8, and one ACC team is left standing after Duke and Florida State lost in the round of 16. Among the eight teams left, we have a team from the Horizon and the CAA, but none from the Big Ten. That is a wow. Here's a preview of today's games:

#8 Butler vs. #2 Florida (2:30 p.m.) - What can you say about the job that Brad Stevens has done at Butler? In each of the last two years, many people have picked Butler to lose in the first round. All they have done is won 8 games in those two years (so far). And it's getting harder to pick against them. Meanwhile, Florida is enjoying its best year since it won back-to-back championships with the Joakim Noah team. This matchup should be familiar for fans of both teams - they do have a history against each other.

I think the key for Butler is preventing the drive and kick for Florida. I saw the Gators doing a lot of that against BYU, and they ended up knocking down a lot of threes. For Florida, I would go right at Matt Howard down low and make him commit fouls. Butler is much better when Howard is on the floor and out of foul trouble.

#5 Arizona vs. #3 UConn (5:05 p.m.) - Arizona opened a lot of eyes with their play in the second half against Duke on Thursday. Derrick Williams had a coming out party with a number of eye-popping dunks and 3-pointers. They carry a lot of momentum into this game against a Connecticut team that has been truly remarkable the last couple weeks. After winning five games in five days, they have continued their run in the NCAAs on the back of Kemba Walker.

I think the key in this game is the secondary scorers. You know that Walker and Williams will have big games. But how Momo Jones and Jeremy Lamb play will go a long way in determining today's winner.

ACC Teams Update

Three ACC teams are still playing - all are in the NCAA Tournament. Boston College and Virginia Tech lost in the second round of the NIT, and Miami lost in the quarterfinals. That leaves Duke, North Carolina and Florida State. Duke and Carolina were expected to make it to the Sweet 16; FSU was not. Here's a look at their matchups for the Sweet 16:

Thursday:

#1 Duke vs. #5 Arizona - Most people thought this would be a matchup between Duke and Texas, but the Wildcats won in the last minute, setting up this showdown with Duke. Understandably, the Blue Devils were a little rusty in integrating Kyrie Irving back in the lineup. They will get a good game from an Arizona squad that has the talent to win.

Friday:

#2 UNC vs. #11 Marquette - Like the Duke game, most people thought UNC would be facing a stiffer challenge against Syracuse. Instead they get Marquette, one of the two Big East teams left standing. Marquette was very up and down this year. They certainly believe that they can pull another upset. I'm not as confident.

#11 VCU vs. #10 Florida State - I don't think many brackets had this Sweet 16 matchup. Both teams played very well last weekend. VCU is riding high right now, playing great on both ends of the floor. It will be interesting to see how they play against a Florida State defense that is one of the best in the nation. I could see this game going either way.

Postseason Update


All of the ACC teams that have played in the postseason so far have won - and all have won by double digits. Here's an update on their next games:

NCAA Tournament

#12 Clemson vs. #5 West Virginia (Thursday, 12:15 p.m.) - Clemson played well in a big win over UAB, and is rewarded by making a very short turnaround and flying from Ohio to Florida. They have to face a Mountaineer team that may be overseeded as a 5 but always plays well in the NCAA Tournament. This should be one of the better matchups on Thursday.

NIT

Northwestern at Boston College (Saturday, 11:00 a.m.) - BC won big at McNeese State, and gets to return home to face a tougher opponent. Northwestern had promise to start the season, and won big over Georgia Tech early in the year. But they have not been good on the road and BC should win this one.

Wichita State at Virginia Tech (Sunday, 11:00 a.m.) - The Hokies came out and put the NCAA snub behind them, creaming Bethune-Cookman. They will have to carry the same energy in an odd Sunday morning start against a Wichita State team that also played well on Wednesday, beating Nebraska. The Shockers may be the toughest challenge the Hokies have to make it to MSG.

Missouri State at Miami (Monday, 7:00 p.m.) - The Hurricanes won their first round NIT game pretty easily against Florida Atlantic. They should get a good game Monday against Missouri State, which was the best team in the regular season in the Missouri Valley before losing to Indiana State in the finals of the MVC Tournament.

ACC in the Postseason

All year long, the talk from the experts was that the ACC was down. The respect (or lack thereof) given to the conference this weekend is a representation of that statement. Only 7 of the 12 teams made any sort of postseason play, with just 4 in the NCAA Tournament. The season is over for Maryland, Virginia, NC State, Georgia Tech and Wake Forest. The other 7 play on. Here's a look at their next games:

NCAA Tournament

Clemson vs. UAB (Tuesday, 9:00 p.m. in Dayton) - It's a good news/bad news situation for Clemson. The good news is they made the tournament in Brad Brownell's first year. The bad news is that Clemson has to play in the play-in game, and if they win, they have to turn around and play early on Thursday in Tampa. I do think Clemson is a better team than UAB, and they should win this one to set up a matchup with West Virginia.

Duke vs. Hampton (Friday, 3:10 p.m. in Charlotte) - Duke was rewarded with a 1 seed and two games in Charlotte. They shouldn't have much trouble with a Hampton team that lost at Wake Forest by 7 in the first game of the year.

Florida State vs. Texas A&M (Friday, 4:10 p.m. in Chicago) - This is a very interesting 7/10 matchup. It looks like Florida State will have Chris Singleton available to play. They will have what likely will be a low-scoring affair against a Texas A&M team that won 13 straight games earlier this year but hasn't been playing its best ball lately.

North Carolina vs. Long Island (Friday, 7:15 p.m. in Charlotte) - Tar Heel fans have to be a little nervous after the Heels' performance in the ACC Tournament. They didn't play anywhere near their potential in those three games. Whether they can put it all together could mean the difference between a second round exit and a final four run. Regardless, they will win this game.

NIT

Boston College at McNeese State (Tuesday, 9:00 p.m.) - Boston College got a 1 seed in the NIT, but for some reason are playing in Louisiana at McNeese State. I can only assume that the Conte Forum was booked on Tuesday night. McNeese State finished first in the Southland Conference. They lost all their games against power conference teams, including a 20 point loss at Miami.

Florida Atlantic at Miami (Wednesday, 7:30 p.m.) - Florida Atlantic will make the short drive down I-95 to Miami to take on the Hurricanes. It's curious that Miami got in the NIT instead of Maryland. Regardless, they have a chance to gain some momentum heading into next year. Florida Atlantic won 13 games in the Sun Belt and won at Mississippi State early in the year.

Bethune-Cookman at Virginia Tech (Wednesday, 8:00 p.m.) - Obviously the biggest question going into this one is motivation: will Virginia Tech's players really be up for an NIT matchup against a team from the Mid-Eastern Conference? Bethune-Cookman did well in conference, but lost to Arizona by 34 and Baylor by 44.

ACC Tournament: Final Preview

First off, sorry that I didn't have a semifinal preview. After the late and crazy ending of the Virginia Tech-Florida State game, I decided to go to Greensboro for yesterday's semis, and had to leave early for that. It was an interesting Saturday at the ACC Tournament. Clemson has to be kicking themselves for losing their game at the end to UNC. They outplayed the Tar Heels for much of that game, only to see Harrison Barnes and company make big shots at the end of regulation and overtime. Clemson sure looks like an NCAA Tournament team - we'll see how things shake out.

The second game wasn't quite as exciting. Virginia Tech fought hard but didn't have enough left in the tank to compete with a Duke team that seems to be bringing its best to the ACC Tournament as always. Nolan Smith was terrific against the Hokies. Like Clemson, Virginia Tech now waits its fate tonight.

So now to today's game: Duke vs. UNC. Surprisingly, these two teams haven't met in the ACC final since 2001. The atmosphere in the Greensboro Coliseum is going to be off the charts. It's not often you get college basketball's best rivalry at a neutral site with lots of both teams' fans.

As for the game, I give Duke the slight edge. They have definitely been playing better than UNC over the last two days. They are just a more disciplined and defensively sound team. Smith and Singler appear to be playing well at the same time, which is a big boost. I think Duke will be able to neutralize the fast break of UNC and will have a defense set up to stop Barnes. Like the game in Cameron, I see Duke's strategy being to try to make Kendall Marshall a shooter. He's shown the ability to make big shots (had a critical 3 in OT yesterday) but is inconsistent.

The Heels have to get off to a better start. They can't get down double digits to Duke and expect them to fold at the end of the game like Miami, and to a lesser degree, Clemson. UNC will have the majority of the crowd support and certainly has a good chance, but I like the Devils to win this one and probably earn a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

ACC Tournament: Quarterfinals Preview

It wasn't the most riveting day one at the ACC Tournament, with the last three games all being pretty much no contest. You saw several teams that just had no life, no fight in them. And that has to be frustrating for fans. NC State and Georgia Tech in particular just seemed to be playing out the string, waiting for their season to be over. We did have one amazing game that saw Virginia have one of the biggest late-game collapses I've ever seen. That has to be just a crushing way to end the season.

Thankfully, Friday should be much more entertaining. Here's a preview:

#1 UNC vs. #9 Miami (12:00 p.m.) - I've heard a lot of chatter about how Miami is a sleeper team and UNC should be on the lookout. I don't agree with this at all. Miami was frankly really lucky to beat UVA - they had scored only 10 points in the second half through the first 19 minutes. I think UNC will run all over the Canes.
Pick: UNC

#4 Clemson vs. #5 Boston College (2:30 p.m.) - It's hard to glean much from BC's win over Wake Forest. Both of these teams know that they have to win this game to put them in good position for the NCAA Tournament. Clemson beat BC in their first meeting in Littlejohn. Clemson's size will cause a problem for BC, but I think Reggie Jackson will carry the Eagles to a win.
Pick: BC

#1 Duke vs. #7 Maryland (7:00 p.m.) - Gary Williams and the Terps were able to pull things together to play a good game against NC State. They will face a much stiffer challenge tonight against a Duke team that has lost 2 of its last 3 games. I think Kyle Singler will step it up, and Duke's guards will make life tough for Pe'Shon Howard and Terrell Stoglin.
Pick: Duke

#3 Florida State vs. #6 Virginia Tech (9:30 p.m.) - The Hokies played inspired ball against Georgia Tech on Thursday, turning around their recent struggles. They know that they have to get work done this week to make the field. There are rumblings that Chris Singleton will be back for Florida State, but how productive he will be is a big question. I think the Hokies will carry the momentum from last night and knock off the Noles.
Pick: Virginia Tech

ACC Tournament Preview: First Round

The ACC Tournament starts on Thursday, with some interesting matchups. For most teams, though, the real interest doesn't start until Friday. This week's tournament could mean the difference between an NCAA bid and a berth in the NIT. It can also be huge in terms of seeding.

Last year, the tournament was chaos. The 11 and 12 seeds won multiple games, and in the quarterfinals, the 2, 3 and 4 seeds all lost. I don't see that pattern repeating this year, but you never know.

So here's a look at Thursday's slate:

#8 Virginia vs. #9 Miami (12:00 p.m.) - These are two teams that at the beginning of the year you would not have thought would have matched up in this 8/9 game. But Virginia has held things together very well while Miami has moved in the other direction. The Hurricanes have more talent than Virginia, but have lost so many close games this year. The Cavaliers, meanwhile, are playing some of their best basketball of the year.
Pick: Virginia

#5 Boston College vs. #12 Wake Forest (2:30 p.m.) - Here's an eye-opening stat for you: Wake Forest has only played in two conference games in which they have not lost by double digits. Last year they were in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. They just played up in Boston and lost by a significant margin, and I don't see anything changing in this one.
Pick: BC

#7 Maryland vs. #10 NC State (7:00 p.m.) - It seems like once the Terps lost any hope of making the NCAA Tournament, the air was let out of the balloon. They have lost their last two games by double digits to Miami and Virginia. NC State looked very uninspired in their last two games against Virginia and Florida State. This game could be ugly.
Pick: Maryland

#6 Virginia Tech vs. #11 Georgia Tech (9:30 p.m.) - This is really the only Thursday game that affects anyone's NCAA possibilities. The Hokies have to find a way to play much more inspired ball than they did in the last two games. Georgia Tech has been playing out the string the last month, but has won its last two games and gets Brian Oliver back. Regardless, Virginia Tech is the better team and must win this game.
Pick: Virginia Tech

Weekend Preview

Well, here we are. This is the last weekend of games in the regular season, and there is a lot at stake for several ACC teams. Obviously, Duke vs. UNC is the biggest game on the national radar. But there are other crucial matchups as well. Here we go:

Saturday:

Virginia Tech at Clemson (12:00 p.m.) - What a big game this is for both teams. Virginia Tech is coming off a pretty damaging home loss to Boston College. Clemson is coming off a loss at Duke. Both teams really need to win this game to feel better about their chances of making the NCAAs. I think that the Hokies can still get in if they lose this game, but if Clemson loses they are out. You have to believe this one will be a low scoring slugfest. First to 60 might win.

Virginia at Maryland (2:00 p.m.) - The Terps pretty much blew any chance they had of making the NCAAs with an uninspired performance at Miami. They have to feel deflated in this game. I think Virginia is catching them at the right time, coming off a nice home win over NC State. The Terps should win this one but don't be surprised if Virginia pulls the upset.

Duke at North Carolina (8:00 p.m.) - What can you say about this matchup? I don't think anyone thought UNC would be a home win away from winning the regular season title. But with their last second win over FSU they are right there with a great chance. Duke certainly looked vulnerable in last week's loss to Virginia Tech. This one should be a great contest.

Sunday:

Wake Forest at Boston College (12:00 p.m.) - I thought Wake had a decent chance at a win at home against Georgia Tech, but they didn't even come close. I certainly don't see them pulling off a road win against a Boston College team that is feeling better about their NCAA chances.

Miami at Georgia Tech (2:30 p.m.) - These are two talented but underachieving teams. There really isn't much to play for here. It may be the last time Paul Hewitt coaches at the Thriller Dome.

Florida State at NC State (6:15 p.m.) - Florida State showed some heart in their matchup with UNC, but at the end of the day it was still a loss. They should be comfortably in the NCAAs, but if they lose this one they could be in a little trouble. NC State isn't playing for anything but could be a spoiler.

Week Preview

There is one week left in the regular season of the ACC and for some teams these games are pivotal. Over the weekend, Virginia Tech got it done, beating the #1 team in the nation, Duke, for a signature win. Boston College picked up an important win at Virginia. And Maryland suffered what could be the final blow to their NCAA chances, losing at UNC.

Here are the ACC games ahead during the week:

Tuesday:

NC State at Virginia (7:00 p.m.) - This is a pretty meaningless game in terms of the NCAA Tournament. Both teams are playing better, though. Virginia has won two of the last three. And NC State is coming off a win over Georgia Tech.

Boston College at Virginia Tech (9:00 p.m.) - This is a huge game for both teams. Boston College is in most people's first four out list after losing at home to Miami last week. They will hope to catch Virginia Tech in a letdown game after their win over Duke. The Hokies will likely put themselves firmly in the tournament if they get their 10th ACC win here.

Wednesday:

Maryland at Miami (7:00 p.m.) - The Terps aren't in very good shape when it comes to the NCAA Tournament, but if they want any chance they have to win this game. Miami has been playing better basketball, but is coming off a tough loss to Florida State.

North Carolina at Florida State (7:00 p.m.) - North Carolina has a great chance to end up with an ACC regular season title if they win their last two games. This one won't be easy, even without Chris Singleton. The Noles are probably in good shape for the tournament but will sew it up if they win this one.

Clemson at Duke (9:00 p.m.) - Clemson is also on a lot of first four out lists, and are in a tough position here, playing Duke in Cameron on Senior Day coming off a Duke loss. The Tigers have to hope Duke shoots poorly from 3 like they did against Virginia Tech if they have any chance.

Thursday:

Georgia Tech at Wake Forest (8:00 p.m.) - Not much interest in this game. These are right now the two worst teams in the conference. As poorly as Wake has been all year, they actually have a chance at a second conference win here.

I'll be back later in the week with a look ahead to the weekend.

Weekend Preview

The regular season is drawing to a close, and time is running out for some teams to make their case for the NCAA Tournament. There are some crucial games this weekend for ACC teams. Right now the only guarantees are that Duke and UNC will be in the tournament. Florida State, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Clemson and Maryland all have chances. Georgia Tech, Virginia, Wake Forest, Miami and NC State do not (other than winning the ACC Tournament). Here are the weekend's games:

Saturday:

Boston College at Virginia (12:00 p.m.) - Boston College had a really bad loss at home on Wednesday night, losing to Miami in a game in which they were completely outplayed in the first half. They have to win this game on the road against a Virginia team that has not given up on the season. If BC loses this one, you can count them out.

Georgia Tech at NC State (2:00 p.m.) - Not a lot of interest in this one. Georgia Tech has now lost 7 games in a row and is really tanking in what will most likely be Paul Hewitt's last season. NC State is coming off a tough loss to rival UNC but is playing better and should win this one at home.

Miami at Florida State (2:00 p.m.) - Florida State is starting to slip a bit and really needs to win this game against a Miami team that is finally finishing off games. The Noles won at Miami earlier in the year and need to prove that they can play without Chris Singleton or they will be on the outside looking in.

Wake Forest at Clemson (4:00 p.m.) - There's not much to say about this one, other than the fact that it is an opportunity for Clemson to add to their ACC win total and improve their seeding in the conference. Clemson has an outside shot of getting into the tournament if they can finish the season strong.

Duke at Virginia Tech (9:00 p.m.) - The opportunity is there for the Hokies: the #1 team is coming into their building in what is really a must-win. It certainly isn't easy to beat Duke, but they are beatable. If the Hokies can win this one, they should be in the tournament. If not, the road becomes a lot tougher.

Sunday:

Maryland at UNC (7:45 p.m.) - This shapes up to be a great game. Maryland is playing good basketball right now, but needs to win every game they can to make it to the tournament. They have a tough assignment, though, against a UNC team that is gunning for an ACC regular season title.

Analysis: VT vs. UVA

I made the trip up to Charlottesville Saturday to watch the VT/UVA game, so I thought I'd write about what I saw. First off, UVA won the game because they played it at their tempo. They wanted to keep the game in the 50s, and limit the transition game of Virginia Tech, and they did that.

Let's start with UVA on offense. Having watched Tony Bennett teams for several years, I know his style. And he worked it perfectly Saturday. UVA slowed the tempo down on each possession, working the clock down under 10 seconds just about every time. More often than not, they ended up taking a 3 with less than 5 on the shot clock. And fortunately for them, they made their shots. It's not like they were all wide-open spot on threes either. Many of them were off-balance, with people's hands in their face. UVA had the most success when they sent either Joe Harris or Sammy Zeglinski to the corner. They seemed to make almost every single one of those. It seemed like Virginia Tech didn't know what kind of defense to play either - they switched from man-to-man to a 2-3 zone multiple times. It was only their pressing defense that allowed them to fluster the UVA offense.

UVA makes their living on defense, and they played it pretty well against Virginia Tech. They allowed very few baskets on the interior. It seemed like everytime Jeff Allen touched the ball, it was around the 3-point line. They also limited transition baskets and did a very good job on the defensive glass. At the beginning of the game, Tech tried to force tempo, but they were very sloppy. Terrell Bell in particular had some very bad turnovers. Once they weren't able to play that transition game, they slowed it down to a pace that UVA wanted to play.

It's pretty clear what Tony Bennett is trying to do at UVA with the talent he has: slow the game down, limit the number of possessions, and make a living at the 3-point line. When they hit their threes, they can beat people. When they don't, they end up scoring 40 points like they did last week against Duke. Regardless, this is not a fun team for opponents to play.

For Virginia Tech, it's obviously frustrating. They had been playing with a lot of confidence, and building momentum toward an NCAA berth. It's one thing that UVA hit a bunch of crazy shots. It's another to only score 54 points (with at least 8 of those in catch-up time in the last minute).

After this loss, it's looking more and more clear that the season will hinge on next week's home game against Duke. Duke is not invincible, but they are a very solid team and it will take a team effort to beat them. Tech will have to get contributions from their bench players if they have any chance of winning. Take a look at the stats for the bench players in the last five games:

Manny Atkins - 3-20 from the field, 0-7 from 3
Jarell Eddie - 1-10 from the field, 0-5 from 3
Ty Garland - 1-11 from the field, 1-7 from 3

That's just not going to get it done.

The Week Ahead

Time is running out for teams that want to make a move toward the NCAA Tournament. There are still a bunch of teams who can either play their way in or play their way out. This week isn't exactly chock full of big matchups, but there are plenty of games that teams can't afford to lose.
Here are the most important games:

Tuesday:
Maryland at Virginia Tech (8:00 p.m.) - Maryland is one or two losses away from being firmly off the bubble. A weekend loss to Boston College was killer. The Hokies are in decent shape for now, but losing this game certainly does not help their cause. Tech played very well up in College Park and will be carrying a lot of confidence into this game.

Wednesday:
Duke at Virginia (7:00 p.m.) - The only real interest in this game has to do with seeding. If Duke slips up on the road, that gives UNC (which is playing Wake) a chance for the conference title.

Thursday:
Clemson at NC State (7:00 p.m.) - The last time these two teams played, NC State burst out to a huge lead in the first half, only to blow it all away and lose by double digits. Clemson suffered a tough loss at home to UNC, and if they lose this game that will severely hurt their NCAA chances.

Saturday:
Virginia Tech at UVA (1:00 p.m.) - Virginia Tech fans remember what happened when these two teams played in Blacksburg. If the Hokies lose the Maryland game, this road win is a must.

Boston College at UNC (4:00 p.m.) - The first time these two played was pretty ugly. UNC won by 32 in Chestnut Hill. Boston College is in decent shape for the tournament now, but a win on the road would really help their cause. Don't think it's going to happen though.

Sunday:
Clemson at Miami (3:30 p.m.) - Clemson has a couple of sneaky tough road games this week. They haven't proved that they could win on the road so far this year. We'll know by this time next week if Clemson is for real.

UNC/Duke Preview

It has been a huge game for decades - but this year's version of college basketball's best rivalry should bring us one of the best matchups in years. The Blue Devils and Tar Heels have been playing excellent basketball recently. Duke started off the year as the #1 team, lost one of their best players, and still has managed a 21-2 record. North Carolina started off the season with not terribly high expectations. But they have really turned it on, and have now compiled a 7-1 conference record.

So let's take a look at the matchup:

Duke can beat you many different ways. Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler came into the year with a lot of experience and loads of potential. They have been terrific, combining for 39 points per game. But it's much more than them: Andre Dawkins and Seth Curry can light it up from the bench. The Plumlee brothers provide the Devils with some inside presence. And Ryan Kelly has been a pleasant surprise. As has been the case for many years, Duke is reliant heavily on the 3. Dawkins, Curry and Kelly are all shooting at least 41% from 3-point land. Singler and Smith aren't bad either.

North Carolina has had a lot of change over the past 12 months,

culminating in last week's decision by Larry Drew II to leave the program. Truth be told, Drew wasn't the best point guard UNC has ever had, and they might be better without him. It's no coincidence that their improvement has come at the same time that much heralded freshman Harrison Barnes started scoring in bunches. Barnes has a great shooting touch for a forward, and if he can stop forcing it as much as he does he could be a superstar. John Henson is a freakish athlete who can be a shooter but has an even bigger impact on the defensive end. Kendall Marshall only scores 4.5 points per game but is a great distributor and a catalyst for the team.

So what separates these two teams? Honestly, probably the venue the game is being played in. Duke hasn't even come close to losing a game at Cameron over the last two years. It's almost impossible to keep them from going on one of those patented Duke runs, where they score 10 points in a row over a minute. That being said, North Carolina has a chance. If I were the Heels, I would focus on guarding the 3. Let Henson guard the post - he can handle the Plumlees. If you can get out and make Duke put up quick shots, you can win.

If I were Duke, I would focus on ball movement. Make the extra pass and force Carolina to defend you all over the court. Don't take quick shots. And on defense, I would force the Heels to make shots from the outside. Double Barnes if you need to, double Tyler Zeller if you need to, and leave guys like Marshall and Leslie McDonald open. They have had some good outside shooting games, but the majority of the time they do most of their damage on the inside.

My prediction: Duke wins a close one, 77-72.

Week Preview

Another week is in the books, and some teams are starting to creep into contention, somewhat surprisingly. I'm talking specifically about Clemson and Maryland, who might be playing their way into tournament berths. Clemson got a come from behind win at home against NC State, and then blew out Florida State at home on Saturday. They still haven't shown an ability to win on the road, but seem to be putting things together under first year coach Brad Brownell.

Maryland has really improved since a blowout home loss to Virginia Tech, with wins over Clemson, at Virginia and at Georgia Tech. The last two were both by double digits. Maryland's big chance comes on Wednesday with a home game against Duke. Win that and they are most likely on the "in" side of the bubble. Here are the games on the ACC slate:

Tuesday:
Wake Forest at Florida State (7:00 p.m.) - If Florida State doesn't win this game they are in serious trouble. But it shouldn't be a problem.
UNC at Boston College (9:00 p.m.) - This is a good test for a Boston College team that has not looked very good in its last two games. UNC has improved and with a win here could be in very good shape for a top 4 finish in the league.

Wednesday:
Virginia Tech at NC State (7:00 p.m.) - The Hokies got a much-needed win against Miami and need to put the Georgia Tech game in the mirror with a road win against a NC State team that is really struggling right now. The Wolfpack's performance against UNC was terrible.
Clemson at UVA (9:00 p.m.) - This is a chance for Clemson to build its resume for the tournament. For UVA, they need a confidence boost after a bad loss at Wake Forest.
Duke at Maryland (9:00 p.m.) - As I said before, this is a huge opportunity for Maryland. Unfortunately for them, they are catching Duke at the wrong time, after the Devils lost in embarrassing fashion to St. John's.

Thursday:
Georgia Tech at Miami (7:00 p.m.) - Not a lot of interest in this game. Definitely a must-win for Miami after a series of really tough losses.

Saturday:
Clemson at Georgia Tech (1:00 p.m.) - The schedulers weren't kind to Georgia Tech this week. They have a very tough turnaround to an early game on Saturday. A good chance for Clemson to pick up a road win.
Virginia Tech at Boston College (1:00 p.m.) - Depending on how Tech's game with NC State goes, this could end up being a very big game for both teams. BC has been pretty good at home, in what is not a very intimidating home atmosphere.
Wake Forest at Maryland (1:00 p.m.) - I give Wake credit for winning this past weekend, but they aren't going to win games like this.
Virginia at Miami (2:00 p.m.) - The good news for the Hurricanes is you can't get a much easier week than what they have. The bad news is they sit at 1-6 in the conference.
NC State at Duke (6:00 p.m.) - If NC State plays up to its potential, they can stay with Duke, even at Cameron. If they play like they did in Chapel Hill last week, they will be blown out of the gym.

Sunday:
Florida State at UNC (2:00 p.m.) - The annual pre-Super Bowl ACC game is a good matchup. Florida State needs a good performance on the road, and may catch UNC looking ahead to their big game next week against Duke.

ACC Standings: A Closer Look

Now that we are in the middle of the conference swing, I figured it's a good time to look at how the standings have shaken out so far. Of course at this point, schedules aren't created equal - for example every team that has played Wake Forest has an extra win in their column. But we are starting to see who may be a contender and who may be a pretender.

1. Duke - 4-1 ACC, 17-1 Overall
No big surprise that Duke is at the top of the standings. They have struggled a bit recently, however, losing to Florida State and winning fairly close games against Maryland and Virginia at home. The Devils did come back with a nice win at NC State earlier this week.

2. Boston College - 4-1 ACC, 14-5 Overall
People are continuing to underestimate what Boston College has done this year. This is a team that did not come with high expectations, but has been performing very well. Their conference slate hasn't been all that difficult so far, with home games against Virginia, Georgia Tech and NC State. We'll find much more about the Eagles in their next four games, with road dates against Florida State and Duke, then home games against North Carolina and Virginia Tech.

3. Florida State - 4-1 ACC, 14-5 Overall
The Seminoles hit a bit of a rough patch, with losses to Auburn and Virginia Tech, but have rebounded nicely. They picked up a big road win over Miami this week, and obviously have that huge win over Duke. The Noles are poised to finish in the top 4.

4. North Carolina - 3-1 ACC, 13-5 Overall
You have to feel a little uneasy if you are a Tar Heel fan right now. Yes, they are 3-1 in conference. But that 1 was a bad road loss by 20 points to Georgia Tech. They also barely beat Virginia Tech in a game they easily could have lost. And they won in the last minute against Virginia. UNC has a little time off before heading down to Miami but appear vulnerable right now.

5. Virginia Tech - 3-2 ACC, 12-5 Overall
The Hokies are really playing good basketball right now, with a huge road win over Maryland. They have won 8 of their last 9, with the only loss coming by 3 points in Chapel Hill. The early season home loss to Virginia hurts their position right now, but they look poised to move up the standings with a schedule that is pretty favorable.

6. Clemson - 2-2 ACC, 13-5 Overall
Clemson has been understandably an inconsistent team so far. They have had to work in a lot of new players and a brand new system. Most recently, their streak continued of never having won in Chapel Hill. So far Clemson has won their two home games and lost their two road games.

7. Georgia Tech - 2-2 ACC, 9-8 Overall
Georgia Tech is a bit of a surprise in this 7 spot, with a surge over the last week. The 20 point win over UNC is probably the head scratcher of the year. And then they followed it up with a 35 point win at home over Wake. The road has been a different story, with double digit losses to BC and Clemson. It's hard to think that they will be able to maintain this position in the standings.

8. Miami - 1-3 ACC, 12-6 Overall
It appears to be a repeat of last year for the Hurricanes, with a strong start to the season and then a series of losses in ACC play. The Canes would look a lot better if they had been able to hold serve at home against Florida State. But so far they have lost three of their first four conference games, with the only win a 1 point victory at home against BC.

9. NC State - 1-3 ACC, 11-7 Overall
No matter where you are, you can probably hear the rumblings coming from the Wolfpack fans. State appears to be underachieving yet again under Sidney Lowe. State lost its game of the year at home against Duke. The team has also lost on the road against Boston College and Florida State, with the lone win a home victory over Wake.

10. Maryland - 1-3 ACC, 11-7 Overall
Maryland had been competing pretty hard thus far this season, before running into a lot of trouble at home against the Hokies. In a game they had to win, the Terps lost by 17. Now they are sitting at 1-3 in conference, with two home losses. Like NC State, their only conference win is against Wake. Maryland has a stretch of winnable games ahead, and needs to turn it around.

11. Virginia - 1-3 ACC, 10-8 Overall
Virginia has been wildly inconsistent this year, and has not won a conference game in more than a month. They have played pretty well at times in games against Duke and UNC, but haven't been able to seal the deal. Most recently, they lost a 3 point game up at Boston College. The Cavs will have two home games in a row to try to gain back some confidence.

12. Wake Forest - 0-4 ACC, 7-12 Overall
What can you say about Wake Forest? They may be the worst ACC team I have ever seen. The Deacons have lost their ACC games by 21, 19, 29 and 35. Their next game is against Duke. There is a very real possibility that Wake could lose every game they play for the rest of the season.

Weekend Thoughts

There weren't a lot of surprises in the ACC this past weekend. Still, there was plenty of compelling action.

Let's start in Durham, where Maryland gave Duke all it could handle. If there is a such thing as a moral victory, the Terps had it, staying right with the #1 Devils the whole game. Maryland used a very strong performance from Jordan Williams to spark them. Duke really struggled in their offense for most of the game before coming through with some free throws and clutch baskets down the stretch. It will be interesting to see if this is just an isolated incident for one game or will be a sign of things to come.

In Charlottesville, the Cavaliers played a very inconsistent game against UNC. Virginia played very well in the first half, hitting a lot of big shots and sparking what became a very good crowd. But in the second half, the shooting got very cold for UVA and they really struggled to score, only getting 19 points. You could just feel the air slowly suck out of the building as UNC creeped back in the game. The Heels definitely have some issues, and need to find an outside shooter, but at the end of the day they should be happy with a win.

Virginia Tech got a badly needed win at home over Florida State. The Hokies have been playing much better since they established their current lineup, and won by playing zone. Jeff Allen had a monster game, matching the game that Chris Singleton had. The difference was Virginia Tech had other players step up, and Florida State did not.

In other action, NC State got an expected win over Wake Forest. The Deacons continue to struggle. Boston College got a tougher than expected victory over Georgia Tech, not pulling away until late. And Clemson was able to win a home game that many thought Miami would pull out.

Here is the slate for the mid-week games. One note: the game between Georgia Tech and Clemson was moved from Tuesday to Wednesday because of weather.

Tuesday:
NC State at BC (9:00 p.m) - Good test for the Wolfpack.

Wednesday:
Georgia Tech at Clemson (7:00 p.m.) - Another opportunity for a home win for the Tigers.
Maryland at Wake Forest (8:00 p.m.) - Any letdown for the Terps?
Duke at Florida State (9:00 p.m.) - Game of the mid-week and one where Duke is vulnerable.

Thursday:
Virginia Tech at UNC (9:00 p.m.) - Can the Hokies' thin lineup hold up in Chapel Hill?

Weekend Preview

Here we are, finally at the real start of the conference season. I'm sure a bunch of ACC teams are happy to get to conference play after having less than stellar non-conference seasons. There are plenty of big games this weekend, so let's get right to it:

UNC at UVA (Saturday, 12:00 p.m.)
UNC has impressed with its recent play, and UVA has not. The Tar Heels bring a lot of confidence in, and I think will benefit from a fairly sparse crowd at JPJ. UVA has struggled lately, but this young team has the ability to play well, so Carolina can't think of this one as a pushover.

Wake Forest at NC State (Saturday, 2:30 p.m.)
What a nightmare of a season it has been so far for Wake Forest. They open ACC play on the road against one of their Tobacco Road rivals. NC State hasn't been setting the world on fire, but should do enough at home to beat the Deacs.

Florida State at Virginia Tech (Saturday, 3:00 p.m.)
This is the game of the day in the conference. It is a game that Virginia Tech simply has to win, already losing a home game to UVA. Florida State is a tough matchup for them, with a lot of size. Although FSU is coming off a head-scratching loss to Auburn. If the Hokies can play well out of the gates, they can win this game.

Georgia Tech at Boston College (Saturday, 4:00 p.m.)
Boston College is coming off another disappointing loss to Harvard, but has played pretty well so far this year. Georgia Tech has been a horrible road team over the last couple years and will likely struggle to win this one.

Miami at Clemson (Saturday, 6:00 p.m.)
This is an intriguing matchup. Clemson is still trying to figure out Brad Brownell's system, and has had a few bumps on the road. If Miami can find a way to win at Littlejohn, they will be taken more seriously as a contender for an NCAA berth.

Maryland at Duke (Sunday, 8:00 p.m.)
This is being showcased as one of the games of the weekend nationally. I think most of the people who are doing that are doing so based on history. Because Duke is simply too good to get beat at home by a Maryland team that has struggled to score this year.

NCAA Chances

Conference play is about to kick into high gear. And unfortunately for the ACC, that means time is running out to come up with showcase wins against teams from other conferences. This is a big part of where NCAA Tournament resumes are built. And so far this year, things haven't been going so well for the conference. There is no question the ACC is down. And that could be a problem when it comes to deciding who's in and who's out in March. So lets look at the chances each team has to make it to the Big Dance:

Boston College (11-3):
Boston College has played pretty well thus far. They have 3 losses on the season, to Yale, Wisconsin and Rhode Island. Only the Yale loss qualifies as a bad one. BC also has wins over Texas A&M, Cal, Providence, South Carolina (on the road), and a road victory in conference against Maryland. If they can keep this up they can be one of the teams in.
Chances: Good

Clemson (11-4):
Clemson has been up and down this year. Their only two quality wins are against Seton Hall and at College of Charleston. They have lost to the four best teams on their schedule, including on the road at Florida State. At this point, they would probably have to go 10-6 to get in.
Chances: Not good

Duke (13-0):
Duke is the number 1 team in the country, and has wins over Kansas State, Michigan State, Marquette and Butler. This is the only sure thing on this list.
Chances: Absolute lock

Florida State (11-4):
Florida State has been looking good for a while, but a loss to Auburn has taken a little of the shine off. They do have a solid win against Baylor. Their other losses are against Florida, Ohio State and Butler, all good teams. I think they will do enough in conference play to get in.
Chances: Good

Georgia Tech (7-6):
Here we get to the first of the sad cases in the ACC. Georgia Tech has wins over UTEP and Richmond. They have also lost to Kennesaw State, Siena and Charlotte. Not looking good for Paul Hewitt.
Chances: Slim

Maryland (10-4):
Maryland is going to be a tough call. Their best win is at Penn State. They have no bad losses, though, with the exception of maybe the home game against BC. Their conference schedule isn't easy, so I'm leaning out on this one.
Chances: 50/50

Miami (11-4):
Miami has had some good wins, against West Virginia and Mississippi. They have a bad 16 point loss at Rutgers. I don't see them performing well on the road this year. They will probably be on the outside looking in.
Chances: Not good

North Carolina (10-4):
UNC started the year off sluggishly, but has come on of late. They have a win over Kentucky that is looking better by the day. Their four losses are all against teams that should make the tournament. I think UNC will be there too.
Chances: Very good

N.C. State (9-4):
NC State hasn't shown much so far this year. Their best win is probably a neutral site win over George Mason. They have also lost to Arizona, Wisconsin, Syracuse and Georgetown. The Wolfpack has two games each against Duke and UNC. That does not equal success.
Chances: Not good

Virginia (10-5):
Virginia has been wildly inconsistent this year. They have road wins at Minnesota and Virginia Tech. But UVA has also lost home games to Seattle and Iowa State, and almost lost to Norfolk State. I don't think this is the year they make the tournament.
Chances: Slim

Virginia Tech (9-4):
The Hokies started out the season poorly, losing in every big game. They have won five in a row, beating Penn State, Mississippi State and St. Bonaventure (on the road) in the process. They've still got a shot to make it.
Chances: 50/50

Wake Forest (6-8):
Wake Forest has been nothing short of an embarrassment. They have lost four games in a row, and will be lucky to even see the .500 mark at any point the rest of the way.
Chances: None

The Week Ahead

It's close to the end of 2010 and most teams are still on their Christmas break. There aren't many more games to close out the year, but there are a bunch of good matchups for the first weekend of 2011. Here's a preview of the week's best games:

North Carolina at Rutgers (Tuesday, 9:00 p.m.)
Rutgers isn't exactly a powerhouse, but they have already had a double digit win over Miami. They haven't matched up very well with UNC in recent years, though, and I don't expect the Heels to lose in New Jersey.

Boston College at Rhode Island (Wednesday, 7:00 p.m.)
The Eagles have played well so far this year, but have a tough matchup with Rhode Island. Hokie fans remember the Rams as the team that beat the Hokies in Blacksburg in the NIT last year.

Wake Forest at Richmond (Wednesday, 7:00 p.m.)
For a young team that has really struggled, this week could put them in full crisis mode. First comes a road game against a Richmond team that has already beaten Purdue. They did lose to Georgia Tech, though, so Wake could pull the surprise.

Boston College at South Carolina (Saturday, 5:30 p.m.)
Boston College has certainly scheduled a tough week. If they survive their road game against Rhode Island, they might be in for a letdown against a South Carolina team that isn't very strong but is still an SEC team.

Gonzaga at Wake Forest (Sunday, 1:00 p.m.)
Wake Forest had a big win last year when they went up to Spokane and shut down the Zags. This year Gonzaga is the team that is likely to come on the road and get the win. If Wake loses both games this week, you can bet the Deacon nation will be in an uproar over Dino Gaudio's firing.

LSU at Virginia (Sunday, 5:30 p.m.)
Virginia is trying to battle some confidence issues, coming off two poor performances in a row. They should be able to beat two BCS conference foes this week, playing Iowa State and LSU, both at home. LSU has struggled mightily since losing to UNC in the tournament a couple years ago.

Miami at Duke (Sunday, 7:45 p.m.)
The first ACC conference game of 2011 will likely be a blowout. This will be Duke's most competitive game playing without Kyrie Irving. But even without him, they are much better than Miami, especially at home.

Pre-Christmas Games Preview

Most ACC teams are trying to get in one last game before Christmas, and some will need to guard against being tripped up by a mediocre team. It already happened once this week, with Wake losing at home against Presbyterian, and almost happened to Virginia, which escaped with a one point win over Norfolk State.

Here are a few games that should be on your radar:

Clemson at College of Charleston (Wednesday, 7:00 p.m.)
The College of Charleston already played Maryland tough in College Park and will be looking for a victory over an ACC team for the second straight year. Clemson is a better team than Charleston but don't be surprised if the home team wins this one.

Georgia Tech at Siena (Wednesday, 7:00 p.m.)
Siena isn't what it once was, with Coach Fran McCaffrey gone. But they are still a decent mid-major team and could present Georgia Tech with some problems up in New York.

Virginia Tech at St. Bonaventure (Thursday, 7:00 p.m.)
St. Bonaventure hasn't been relevant for several years, but is starting to play better and has a victory over St. Johns this year. They could catch Virginia Tech napping.

Florida State vs. TBA in Hawaii (Thursday)
The Seminoles are playing in the Diamond Head Classic in Hawaii, in a tournament that has a decent field. This second round game will likely be played against Butler, with a final round matchup coming Saturday against potentially Baylor.

Weekend Recap

There were some good games this weekend, and I think we learned more about some of the teams in the ACC. Here are my impressions:

-UNC played well despite losing a virtual home game against Texas. It seems to me that the Heels are still trying to figure out their offensive identity with a lot of guys who do not have much game experience. If I were them, I'd keep getting the ball down low to Tyler Zeller. I am impressed by how much he has improved, and he has gotten to the point where he is almost unstoppable down low. They still need to figure out how best to use freshman Harrison Barnes.

-Miami had a golden opportunity to knock off a surprisingly good team in UCF but really struggled in the second half. They were up at halftime, but really unraveled down the stretch. Once they got behind, it seemed like they got in panic mode, not running any set offenses, but choosing to have one of their guards drive into the lane and throw up an off-balance shot. If they didn't get fouled, it was one and done and UCF took advantage.

-Virginia Tech may have turned the corner. They played their best game of the year against a Mississippi State team that is talented, albeit gassed after playing five games in a week. Still, even against a tired team, for the Hokies to win by 30 is quite a feat. If they can continue to get consistent production out of people like Erick Green and Victor Davila, they can make their goal of the NCAAs.

-NC State didn't take advantage of a game that really would have looked good on their resume had they'd won. Arizona is a solid team with some NBA caliber players. But playing at home, the Wolfpack should have been able to take care of business. Instead, they fell behind and only got into more of a hole. They were playing a very aggressive form of defense, which led to a lot of easy Arizona baskets.

-It was a good win for Georgia Tech down in the Bahamas. They were able to knock off a Richmond team that many people think is a lock for the NCAA Tournament. The Yellow Jackets were able to win by 13 despite playing much of the game without Iman Shumpert.

I'll be back later in the week with a look ahead at some decent non-conference matchups.

The State of the ACC

As it's about a month into the season, it's a good time to look at how the ACC teams have been progressing thus far this year. So here is the status report:

Boston College (8-2)
The Eagles have surpassed expectations so far. They performed admirably in Orlando, beating a good Texas A&M squad and winning big over California. BC also has a very solid road win over Maryland and an underrated win at UMass. Steve Donahue has to be happy with how his first year has gone so far.

Clemson (5-4)
Clemson lost quite a bit from last year's team, and the transition to both new players and a new coach has been understandably tough. The Tigers have lost all of their games against good teams, with the best victory being against Seton Hall at a neutral site. The home loss to Michigan was disappointing, and they missed an opportunity down the stretch at Florida State.

Duke (10-0)
The Duke Blue Devils have done what everyone expected them to do: win, win, win. They have played a pretty impressive schedule, and have racked up wins against Kansas State, Michigan State, Butler and Marquette. Most of their games have been blowouts. There is some cause for concern with Kyrie Irving's injury, but even if he is out for the year they should be in good shape.

Florida State (8-2)
Florida State has a decent record thus far, but it still feels as if they haven't played up to their potential. The Seminoles have lost two games, both against ranked teams, but they were both at home. In those games, they only scored a combined 95 points. Florida State's best non-conference win is hard to pick out - perhaps a 23 point win at Florida International.

Georgia Tech (5-4)
The Yellow Jackets are another team that has underperformed so far. They started out the year by losing their second game, a 17 point loss at Kennesaw State. Georgia Tech had a good win in Atlantic City over UTEP, but followed that up with three straight losses, including a home loss to rival Georgia. They appear to be one of the weaker teams in the ACC.

Maryland (7-4)
Maryland has shown promise at times this year, despite being very young. I think they are on pace for a solid year, given Gary Williams' track record. The Terps played well in New York, despite losing two games to Pitt and Illinois. They did blow out Penn State on the road, but lost to Temple and at home to Boston College. The jury is still out on Maryland.

Miami (7-2)
Miami has flown under the radar at the start of the year, much as they did last year. They have played decently well this year, with the exception of a 16 point loss to Rutgers. The Canes have two decent home wins, against Ole Miss and West Virginia, but other than that have not been tested. They don't play another road game until January 2nd at Duke.

North Carolina (7-3)
The Tar Heels have taken some time to come into their own. Along the way, they struggled to losses against Minnesota and Vanderbilt. UNC also had a loss at Illinois which wasn't very close. But UNC has put together a good win against Kentucky and appears to be picking up steam with a matchup at Texas up next.

N.C. State (5-3)
The high expectations for NC State this year haven't seemed to filter down to the team yet. The Wolfpack played horribly against Wisconsin and got blown out at a neutral site by Georgetown. Their best win is against George Mason. With a game against Arizona upcoming, NC State needs to get things together. Getting Tracy Smith back would help.

Virginia (6-3)
Virginia has been one of the few teams in the ACC that could be counted as a surprise. The Cavaliers started the season off as most people expected: blowout losses to Stanford and Washington. But they rebounded to beat Oklahoma by 18 and have since piled up road wins against Minnesota and Virginia Tech. The Cavaliers look to be a force to be reckoned with this year.

Virginia Tech (5-4)
It would definitely be fair to say the Hokies have been a disappointment. Their early season struggles have been well documented (including in this blog). The only loss that could be counted as a bad loss was their home defeat to Virginia, but they really should have beaten Purdue. The best win so far is a neutral site victory over Oklahoma State, with a chance at a better one this weekend against Mississippi State.

Wake Forest (6-4)
Wake Forest's record isn't much different from many other teams, but they are clearly the worst team in the ACC. They have already lost to Stetson, VCU, Winthrop and UNC Wilmington, with the first three being at home. In their last game, they won at home by only two points to a UNC Greensboro team that hasn't won a game this season. In fact, UNC Greensboro's previous best loss was by 12 points to NC A&T. Not good in Winston Salem.

To recap, a lot of the ACC teams have some work to do to earn respectability for the conference. Most years, there would be a lot of teams with no more than two losses. Right now, 8 of the 12 teams have at least 3 losses. And time is running out to pile up the non-conference wins.

The Week Ahead

We aren't even halfway into December, and three conference games are already in the books. I've got to hand it to Boston College - they had the most impressive performance of the weekend. BC was able to go to Maryland and win a shootout, playing much better than the home team down the stretch. Of the three new coaches, Steve Donahue inherited the team with the most returning talent. But he has still done a fine job so far. For Maryland, this is not a good loss. I am fairly confident they will be able to turn it around, though.

In the other conference game, Florida State was able to outlast Clemson. For years this was the game between the two worst teams in the conference, and I think there is still not much national interest for this matchup. This game was marked by a bunch of missed layups and dunks. But in the end, Florida State got the win they were expected to get.

This is another week where teams are on their exam break, so not much action. But here are the marquee games worth looking out for:

Oregon at UVA (Friday, 8:00 p.m.)
After spending a long time on the road, UVA is home for the rest of the year. This is notable because they are hosting a BCS foe, but Oregon doesn't have a lot of firepower and has to travel across the country. UVA should win this one.

Texas vs. UNC (Saturday, 4:00 p.m. in Greensboro)
This made for TV matchup should be a virtual home crowd for the Heels. They got one solid win over Kentucky and will be looking to build a little momentum. Texas is a bit of an enigma, playing well in New York but losing badly on the road at Southern Cal.

Georgia Tech vs. Richmond (Saturday, 5:00 p.m. in the Bahamas)
This is game one of the Battle at Atlantis, and is a tough matchup for the Yellow Jackets. Richmond is considered a team on the rise and already has a neutral site win over Purdue to its credit. The Jackets are coming off a tough loss at home to rival Georgia and could use a boost.

Virginia Tech vs. Mississippi State (Saturday, 8:00 p.m. in the Bahamas)
The second game of the Battle at Atlantis features two teams who really want to get back to the NCAA Tournament. The Hokies got a nice win over Penn State but have still underachieved. Mississippi State will be looking to get back to full strength with Renardo Sidney returning to the team.

Wake Forest at Xavier (Saturday, 8:00 p.m.)
Wake Forest has really struggled in the early going this year, and their schedule is not getting any easier. A trip to Xavier will be a tough test for Jeff Bzdelik's crew. Thus far Wake's best win is a home win over Iowa. Keeping the Xavier game close will probably be a victory for the Deacs.

Arizona at N.C. State (Sunday, 4:30 p.m.)
This is a rematch of a very competitive game from last year. The Wolfpack have a lot of promise but have yet to deliver with a big win, losing all three of their games against BCS conference opponents. Arizona is expected to contend for an NCAA berth this year, and would be a good win for the Pack.

What's Wrong with the Hokies?

Since there aren't many games going on this week, that gives me a little time to devote to a topic near and dear to my heart: the Hokie basketball team. I have seen the team come a long way since I started following it in 2002. I really thought that the Hokies would never make the tournament again after their last appearance in 1996. But they managed to grow the program to where it has at least earned respectability.

All that being said, this season came in with as high expectations as I'd ever seen for the Hokies. And with a 4-4 record to date, there has been much groveling and complaining and jumping off the bandwagon. So it begs the question: what's wrong?

The main reason I can point to is chemistry. The guys on the floor don't seem to have the same level of trust that they had last year. And that is puzzling, considering it is the same five guys out there. They aren't moving the ball on offense and working together to generate turnovers on defense. On a 3 and 1 break, the ball handler will shoot a contested shot rather than pass to the open man. When guys are getting screened on defense, another defender is not helping out to pick up the open man. And I could go on and on. The team just doesn't look like it's playing together. It has in moments this season: like the last 5 minutes against Oklahoma State and the second half against UVA.

Another problem: the inability to come through down the stretch. The times that the Hokies have performed well in the past have been when they have been able to take over the last few minutes of a game to close out the other team. They did this nicely against Oklahoma State. But against Purdue, they had a four point lead and the Boilermakers on the ropes. But they didn't seem to know what to do with the ball in the last couple minutes and lost. Against UVA, they had chances to tie or take the lead and really deal a knockout blow, but didn't.

You can point to one player in one game and say "Well Malcolm played poorly" or "Dorenzo had a bad game." But good players are going to have bad games. It happens all the time. Good teams are able to win despite this. Their other players (who aren't slouches - they are scholarship athletes at an ACC school) pick up the slack. This has also been lacking.

The last reason I will point to is the sheer lack of manpower. Allan Chaney went out, then J.T. Thompson - both before the season. Cadarian Raines missed a significant amount of time. And just this week, Ben Boggs announced he will transfer. That leaves 10 scholarship players. If Raines has to miss a lot more time, that number is down to 9. Nine scholarship players is practically unheard of - a lot of teams have 13! It is very difficult to win with that lack of depth, and getting no spark off the bench.

One last point: there has been a lot of criticism of Seth Greenberg on Virginia Tech message boards. I don't know whether Seth is the problem or not. All I know is that his coaching move at the end of the Oklahoma State game single handedly won the game. He has talked about players needing to be more about the team than themselves - is that coaching? Maybe. Maybe Seth Greenberg has hit his ceiling as a coach and the Hokies need another coach to take that next step. But you better believe he is working his heart out to try to come up with a fix.

The good news is, there is plenty of time. The Hokies have 15 more conference games to play, many against teams with inferior talent. They can get out of their funk. But the road back starts with the next game.

Weekend Recap

It was a pretty good weekend for the ACC, with some key wins against non-conference foes.

Let's start in Chapel Hill, where UNC got a much needed win against Kentucky. The Tar Heels have had the Wildcats' number in recent years, and needed this confidence builder. Neither team really got it done on the offensive end, especially late in the game. But Tyler Zeller knocked down some big free throws down the stretch.

Butler played their butts off to a first half draw in a rematch of the NCAA Championship game against Duke. I don't know if it was a hangover from their game against Michigan State or more about what Butler did, but Duke struggled more in that first half than they have all year. That being said, they were still able to win by 12.

Miami got a huge win over West Virginia. The Hurricanes also needed a confidence boost after struggling some in November, and beating the Mountaineers is a good step forward.

NC State held tough against Syracuse, leading late in the game, only to see things slip away. I'm not sure if Wolfpack fans will be heartened by their improved effort or disappointed because of the loss. Either way, NC State has some work to do before conference play starts.

Clemson lost a tough battle against its biggest rival, South Carolina. The Tigers have been struggling some in the early season as well, and look like they will endure some growing pains in the first year under Brad Brownell.

Virginia continued its strong play of late with a road upset of Virginia Tech. The Cavaliers came out hot in the first half, and held onto their 12 point halftime lead. This speaks a lot to the resiliency of Tony Bennett and the Cavs after their tough stretch a couple weeks ago. For Virginia Tech, there are a lot more questions than answers. They seem to lack chemistry, and need to get things together quickly or it will be a very disappointing season.

Maryland strugged offensively against a tough Temple team, trailing by double digits at one point at the BB&T Classic. They were able to make a game of it, losing by 3, but they have to think this loss was a missed opportunity.

The schedule dries up a little bit this week as some teams go on a break for exams. There are only two games of note during the week:

Tuesday: Georgia at Georgia Tech (7:00 p.m.)
Wednesday: Providence at Boston College (7:00 p.m.)

Challenge Winners & Losers

Another ACC/Big Ten Challenge is in the books and for the second straight year, the Big Ten won. The ACC did manage to make it competitive on Wednesday, losing by a narrow 6-5 margin. So let's take a look back at the winners and losers.

Winners

Virginia - Virginia pulled off the biggest surprise of the challenge, with a huge road win at Minnesota. The way the Cavaliers had played thus far this year, no one thought they could win going away against a Gophers team predicted to finish in the top 25. This could be a big momentum builder for them.

Northwestern - The Wildcats have never made it to the NCAA Tournament, and are hoping this will be the year. They blasted Georgia Tech at home, scoring at will. This is a good sign for a team hoping to take that next step.

Michigan - The Wolverines came up with a big road win against Clemson. Michigan has been a much improved team since John Beilein took over, and looks to make the NCAA Tournament again this year.

Maryland - The Terps started out slowly against Penn State, but ended up winning by 23. Penn State isn't the strongest team, but beating any Big Ten team by 23 points on the road gets you in the winners column.

Losers

NC State - What happened, Sidney Lowe? There is no shame in losing at Wisconsin. But losing by 39 points, with a second half that was completely meaningless, is pretty sad. State only scored 48 points and gave up 87 to a team that usually plays in the 50s.

Virginia Tech - The Hokies played much better in their Big Ten game against Purdue, and really should have won. But mistakes down the stretch meant another loss and another missed opportunity in the non-conference. Fans will have to tone down their expectations for this season.

Florida State - Ohio State is an impressive team, but Florida State has made a living in recent years out of beating higher ranked teams at home. They have been pretty disappointing so far this year.

Iowa - The Hawkeyes had Wake Forest on the ropes in Winston-Salem but let them off the hook, giving up a late 3. Iowa isn't going anywhere this year but this would have been a good win for them.

This weekend is full of very strong matchups. Among the highlights: UNC vs. Kentucky, Duke vs. Butler, West Virginia at Miami, Maryland vs. Temple, and the first conference game of the year: UVA at Virginia Tech. A full recap of those games is coming up on Monday.