NCAA Chances

Conference play is about to kick into high gear. And unfortunately for the ACC, that means time is running out to come up with showcase wins against teams from other conferences. This is a big part of where NCAA Tournament resumes are built. And so far this year, things haven't been going so well for the conference. There is no question the ACC is down. And that could be a problem when it comes to deciding who's in and who's out in March. So lets look at the chances each team has to make it to the Big Dance:

Boston College (11-3):
Boston College has played pretty well thus far. They have 3 losses on the season, to Yale, Wisconsin and Rhode Island. Only the Yale loss qualifies as a bad one. BC also has wins over Texas A&M, Cal, Providence, South Carolina (on the road), and a road victory in conference against Maryland. If they can keep this up they can be one of the teams in.
Chances: Good

Clemson (11-4):
Clemson has been up and down this year. Their only two quality wins are against Seton Hall and at College of Charleston. They have lost to the four best teams on their schedule, including on the road at Florida State. At this point, they would probably have to go 10-6 to get in.
Chances: Not good

Duke (13-0):
Duke is the number 1 team in the country, and has wins over Kansas State, Michigan State, Marquette and Butler. This is the only sure thing on this list.
Chances: Absolute lock

Florida State (11-4):
Florida State has been looking good for a while, but a loss to Auburn has taken a little of the shine off. They do have a solid win against Baylor. Their other losses are against Florida, Ohio State and Butler, all good teams. I think they will do enough in conference play to get in.
Chances: Good

Georgia Tech (7-6):
Here we get to the first of the sad cases in the ACC. Georgia Tech has wins over UTEP and Richmond. They have also lost to Kennesaw State, Siena and Charlotte. Not looking good for Paul Hewitt.
Chances: Slim

Maryland (10-4):
Maryland is going to be a tough call. Their best win is at Penn State. They have no bad losses, though, with the exception of maybe the home game against BC. Their conference schedule isn't easy, so I'm leaning out on this one.
Chances: 50/50

Miami (11-4):
Miami has had some good wins, against West Virginia and Mississippi. They have a bad 16 point loss at Rutgers. I don't see them performing well on the road this year. They will probably be on the outside looking in.
Chances: Not good

North Carolina (10-4):
UNC started the year off sluggishly, but has come on of late. They have a win over Kentucky that is looking better by the day. Their four losses are all against teams that should make the tournament. I think UNC will be there too.
Chances: Very good

N.C. State (9-4):
NC State hasn't shown much so far this year. Their best win is probably a neutral site win over George Mason. They have also lost to Arizona, Wisconsin, Syracuse and Georgetown. The Wolfpack has two games each against Duke and UNC. That does not equal success.
Chances: Not good

Virginia (10-5):
Virginia has been wildly inconsistent this year. They have road wins at Minnesota and Virginia Tech. But UVA has also lost home games to Seattle and Iowa State, and almost lost to Norfolk State. I don't think this is the year they make the tournament.
Chances: Slim

Virginia Tech (9-4):
The Hokies started out the season poorly, losing in every big game. They have won five in a row, beating Penn State, Mississippi State and St. Bonaventure (on the road) in the process. They've still got a shot to make it.
Chances: 50/50

Wake Forest (6-8):
Wake Forest has been nothing short of an embarrassment. They have lost four games in a row, and will be lucky to even see the .500 mark at any point the rest of the way.
Chances: None