NCAA Tournament Potential

This week I'm going to do something a little different.  Now that we're almost halfway through the conference season, it's a good point to see where each team is relative to the NCAA Tournament.  So here's how I see each team shaping up right now:

Locks:

Duke (19-2, 6-2 ACC)
Duke is never in any trouble of missing the NCAA Tournament, and this year is no exception.  They are coming off a road blasting of Florida State and should be in contention for a #1 seed.
Next game: Thursday vs. N.C. State

Miami (17-3, 8-0 ACC)
Miami is riding high after another road win, this one over N.C. State.  They are putting that early loss to Florida Gulf Coast way into their rear-view mirror.  You have to like their chances at winning the ACC regular season title and earning a very good seed.
Next game: Tuesday vs. Boston College

N.C. State (16-6, 5-4 ACC)
Of course this is barring a collapse, but fans are very restless in Raleigh right now.  The Wolfpack need to right the ship.  They only have one win over a ranked team (Duke).  As it stands, they have the resume to make it.  But they need to beat the teams they are supposed to from here on out.
Next game: Thursday at Duke


Bubble teams:

North Carolina (15-6, 5-3 ACC)
Tar Heels fans have a lot of angst just thinking of their team being on the bubble.  But they really don't have a very strong case to make the NCAA Tournament right now.  They have a good win at home against UNLV and a road win at fading Florida State.  If they can get to 11 or 12 wins in the conference they should be fine, especially if one is over Duke or Miami.
Next game: Tuesday vs. Wake Forest

Virginia (15-6, 5-3 ACC)
Virginia has an identical record as North Carolina, and a win against them.  They also have a win over N.C. State and a road win at Wisconsin on their resume.  What's hurting the Cavaliers is a bad RPI compounded with a loss to 2-19 Old Dominion.  Virginia also faded down the stretch at Georgia Tech, a chance missed to get a road win.  The Cavaliers only play Miami and Duke once this year so they need to load up on as many conference wins as possible.
Next game: Thursday vs. Clemson

Maryland (16-6, 4-5 ACC)
About a month ago, I thought Maryland was a lock.  But they have underwhelmed in conference play.  Their resume is being carried right now by a home win over N.C. State.  Maryland has a huge opportunity with a home game against Duke later this year.  They probably need to go at least 7-2 the rest of the way to make it.
Next game: Thursday at Virginia Tech

Florida State (12-9, 4-4 ACC)
Florida State has been okay in the ACC, but they are really going to be hurt by their non-conference performance.  Losses to South Alabama, Mercer and Auburn are going to sting.  They have two wins over Maryland, which could help them in the long run.  But they really need to win their home game against Miami if they want to put something on the resume that will make the committee take notice.
Next game: Tuesday at Georgia Tech

Not this year:

Clemson (12-9, 4-5 ACC)
Wake Forest (10-11, 3-6 ACC)
Georgia Tech (12-8, 2-6 ACC)
Virginia Tech (11-10, 2-6 ACC)
Boston College (10-11, 2-6 ACC)

Of these five teams, Clemson is the closest.  But a loss to Boston College over the weekend means they need to go on a real hot streak at the end of the year.  But I didn't expect any of these teams to be in the NCAA Tournament this year, so there are no big disappointments.