Monday, February 06, 2012

The Week Ahead

It was an interesting weekend in the ACC.  The headline is definitely Duke's loss at home to Miami in overtime.  It was surprising enough that Duke lost a second home game this year, to a Miami team that hadn't done much this year.  What's even more surprising is just how poorly Duke played in overtime after they had rallied to tie the game.  That prompted some harsh criticism from Coach K:
Coach K Questions Team's Toughness

On the other side, this is a very good win for Miami.  They are now right into the NCAA Tournament conversation, but need to do a lot more to merit a bid.

The other big game this weekend was Florida State beating Virginia by three at home.  FSU was ahead pretty much the whole game, and withstood a Virginia run to pull one out at home.  The Seminoles are 7-1 in conference and have a very favorable schedule ahead.  Their next tough game is February 18th at NC State.

Here's a look at this week's games:

Tuesday:

Maryland at Clemson (7:00 p.m., ESPNU)
Maryland missed an opportunity to get a signature win at home against UNC.  They have played well in their last two games only to lose both.  It will be tough to win at Clemson, where the Tigers have played well.

Wednesday:

Florida State at Boston College (7:00 p.m.)
Trap game?  It's hard to see Florida State losing to BC.  The Eagles came close to a win at Georgia Tech but have not beaten a team anywhere near the caliber of Florida State this year.

Wake Forest at Virginia (7:00 p.m., FSN)
Wake actually played decently this weekend on the road against NC State.  They will need a similar offensive performance to knock off Virginia.  The Cavaliers played pretty well even in a loss in Tallahassee.

Duke at North Carolina (9:00 p.m., ACC Network or ESPN)
This is obviously the game of the week, as it always is when these two teams play.  I'm interested to see how Duke comes out.  They should be angry and wanting to prove their coach wrong.  But they don't have the talent level to match Carolina, especially in Chapel Hill.  Duke needs someone to step up and be a leader both on and off the court.  I don't think Austin Rivers is that guy right now.  If Duke can get both Curry and Dawkins hitting 3s, they can stay in this game until the end.  But if Carolina plays up to their ability, they will win by 10.

Thursday:

NC State at Georgia Tech (7:00 p.m., ESPNU)
NC State is coasting through a very easy portion of their schedule, with three straight games against the three worst teams in the league.  Georgia Tech had to feel good about finally getting a win, but they still have some serious issues.  You have to think the Wolfpack are the favorite on the road, even though the Yellow Jackets won the first meeting in Raleigh.

Virginia Tech at Miami (9:00 p.m., ESPN2)
Like Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech had to feel good about getting a home win under their belts.  Miami should be riding high after their win at Cameron, but this is exactly the type of game that previous Miami teams would lose.  We'll see if Coach Larranaga has imparted a different mindset on this team.

Final Thoughts:

I wanted to say a few words about the job Steve Donahue has done at Boston College.  Many people looked at the Eagles on paper and saw how little talent they had and thought they would be worse than last year's Wake Forest team.  Well, last year Wake went 1-15 in the league and only lost one game by less than 10 points.  So far Boston College is 2-7 in conference.  Two of their seven losses have been by less than 10 points.  So obviously the numbers aren't great, but they are showing signs of improvement.  They at least seem to play together a lot more than Wake's team did last year.  The schedule is pretty tough going ahead - they only have three home games left, and two of them are against Florida State and Duke.  But they have a chance to not finish in last place in the league, which is something nobody thought a month or so ago.

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