Saturday, April 04, 2009

Final Four Preview:

There's no question we have four teams in the Final Four that have very rich Tournament history. In fact, these teams have won four of the past 10 National Championships. Take a look at their records in the Tournament:

UNC: 100-39 (National titles in 1957, 1982, 1993, 2005)
UConn: 46-27 (National titles in 1999, 2004)
Michigan St.: 47-21 (National titles in 1979, 2000)
Villanova: 48-29 (National title in 1985)

With such sterling resumes we can only hope the games can live up to the billing.

#1 Connecticut vs. #2 Michigan State (6:07) - If you look up and down the UConn roster, you can't help but see a ton of talent. The starting lineup of Price, Austrie, Robinson, Adrien and Thabeet could all end up in the NBA. Obviously the main focus on offense and defense is Thabeet. He is such a force inside that you have to completely change your game plan to account for him. But if you focus too much on Thabeet, someone like A.J. Price or Stanley Robinson can kill you. UConn looked like the best team in the country in January and is rounding back into form after a bit of a late-season slide. They will be very tough to beat.

Much has been made of Michigan State playing basically at home. This will be a factor, but in the Final Four with so many tickets being used by corporations it's not going to be like playing in the Breslin Center. They have one big advantage though: Tom Izzo. His game plan against Louisville was tremendous. And coaching can beat talent, which is the Spartans' main shot. That isn't to say Michigan State doesn't have talent. Kalin Lucas and Travis Walton are great guards and Goran Suton can beat you inside or outside. Michigan State's not going to let UConn dictate the tempo of this game.

#1 North Carolina vs. #3 Villanova (8:47) - Before the season started, pundits handed this year's trophy over to the Tar Heels. There was talk of an undefeated season, one of the best teams ever. People seemed to get that these are 20 year old kids (aka they're human). But Carolina overcame a mid-season 2 game slide and has played brilliantly in the Tournament. When you look at their starting lineup, you don't see a weak link. Like Connecticut, UNC has a starting five that will be playing in the NBA (Lawson, Green, Ellington, Thompson, Hansbrough). In fact the former player of the year is probably the least likely to succeed at the next level. And look at the talent on the bench: Ed Davis is certainly a future lottery pick. The only way Carolina will lose is if they beat themselves or get outcoached.

Much like 24 years ago, Villanova has been the story of the Tournament. They have played as well as any team, in dispatching of Duke and outlasting Pitt. The Wildcats can beat you outside with Scottie Reynolds and a barrage of 3 point shooting. Or they can punish you inside with Dante Cunningham. And they play terrific defense: just watch the film of the Duke game to find that out. If they can frustrate North Carolina's shooters and defend effectively 1-on-1 on Hansbrough, they have a shot. I'm sure UNC did not want to see this Villanova team in the Final Four.

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