Tuesday, February 10, 2009

Preview: UNC vs. Duke

The great thing about ACC basketball is you get great matchups just about every night. But twice a year we get to see the greatest rivalry in college sports play out - Duke and Carolina. The first game is tomorrow, and once again both teams are Final Four contenders. The game will be at Cameron, which could be the difference.

UNC has one of the best players in the country on its side in Tyler Hansbrough. I don't see Duke being able to stop him with Brian Zoubek and Lance Thomas. If I were Duke I would let Hansbrough get his points and concentrate on defending Wayne Ellington and Danny Green. Ellington in particular has been on fire lately. When Duke is on offense, the whole key is their 3 point shooting. They are almost unstoppable when they have multiple guys knocking down threes. But their key is Gerald Henderson. If he can get his points, he motivates the guys around him to play better. The other key playing in Cameron is to limit the runs. Duke almost always has some 15-2 run in them, and you just have to weather that storm.

All this being said, I just think even with the game being played at Duke I have to give the edge to UNC. Since their two game slide they are rolling right along, and Hansbrough has never lost in Cameron. I think Duke has to hit 3s to have a chance at winning, but they can't take wild 3s. They shot way too many from outside against Miami, which really hampered their offense. For whatever reason, the road team has done well in this rivalry of late.

Prediction: UNC 78, Duke 72

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