Weekend Preview

It wasn't a good week for our ACC bubble teams.  Miami blew it down the stretch, with several costly turnovers to lose on the road at Maryland.  And NC State lost the opportunity (again) for a signature win as they were never really that close to UNC.  Duke got a really big win, pretty much controlling Florida State and maintaining a good sized lead.  That means that it's likely for the second year in a row, the Duke/Carolina game at the end of the regular season will decide the league title and #1 seed in the ACC Tournament.

Here's the schedule this weekend:

Saturday:

Virginia Tech at Duke (12:00 p.m., ACC Network)
The Hokies are playing better, but weren't able to get it done down the stretch at home against Virginia.  Their last four games have been decided by no more than two points.  I don't think they'll be able to keep the game that close in Cameron against a Duke team that already beat them by double digits in Blacksburg.

Boston College at Wake Forest (1:00 p.m., FSN)
Wake got a win up in Chestnut Hill earlier this year and will be looking for the sweep.  It's not out of the question for BC to pull off the road win, though, as they have played better than Wake has recently.  The winner of this game will pretty much be assured of not finishing last in the league.

N.C. State at Clemson (2:30 p.m., ACC Network)
Simply put, N.C. State must win this game if they want to make the NCAA Tournament.  Clemson has been playing better, but their RPI is still so low that losing to them, even in Littlejohn, counts as a bad loss.

Maryland at Georgia Tech (2:30 p.m., ACC Network)
The Terps put together a nice win over Miami Tuesday to prevent their late-season slide from getting worse.  After playing pretty inspired ball at Virginia Tech last weekend, Georgia Tech put in an absolute stinker at home against Clemson, scoring only 37 points.

North Carolina at Virginia (4:00 p.m., ESPN)
Very intriguing matchup between two teams that just played each other two weeks ago.  I give UVA a much better chance at home to pull off the upset.  If they can get points from someone other than Mike Scott, they have a chance.  UNC needs to win to keep pace with Duke and Florida State in the top of the standings.

Sunday:

Florida State at Miami (6:00 p.m., ESPNU)
Like N.C. State, Miami has to win this weekend.  They are probably in better position than N.C. State at this point with the chance at a quality win over Florida State.  The Seminoles could be in letdown mode after losing at home to Duke.  But they are the superior team.

Final Thoughts:

The one team that I took a flier on, based on how they did last year, was Clemson.  I picked them to finish 4th this year in the ACC.  That will not end up happening, by a long shot.  In fact in the first couple months this year Clemson looked like it was one of the three worst teams in the league.  However, the Tigers are starting to play better, and may be in line for another late run like Brad Brownell pulled out last year.

It's been an odd ACC season for Clemson.  They are 6-7 in the league, currently in a tie for 7th.  Interestingly, three of their wins have been by at least 19 points.  They beat Florida State by 20, Wake Forest on the road by 20, and Georgia Tech on the road by 19.  Most of their losses have been close: at BC by 2, at Miami by 3, at Virginia by 4, at Virginia Tech by 2, vs. Maryland by 2.  You'll be hard pressed to find a team that has played better on the road (outside the top tier teams) in the ACC.  With home games against N.C. State and Virginia Tech coming up, the Tigers could finish 8-8 in the league, something that looked highly improbable two months ago.