Is the ACC Too Top Heavy?


I took a look before at the turnover in coaches when trying to explain why the ACC is down this year (and the last few years).  One other theory that may be playing into it is the top of the league.  Duke and UNC are two of the most historic and established programs in the country.  They have been dominant throughout the last several decades.  And that certainly may be hurting the league.  Years like this one show how much they are above everyone else, making it very hard to earn a marquee win.  So I ran some numbers, looking at each team's record against Duke and UNC since the league expanded to 12.  That means the past six seasons, including ACC Tournament games.  You may be surprised who has the best record against the two big boys.


Georgia Tech       7-12         37%
Maryland             7-15         32%
Virginia Tech       5-14         26%
Boston College    5-15         25%
Florida State       5-15         25%
Wake Forest        4-13        24%
Virginia              3-15         17%
Clemson             3-16        16%
NC State            3-19         14%
Miami                2-17         11%


This adds up to a combined record of 44-151.  Keep in mind that 12 of those 44 wins came to UNC in one season, when they went 5-11 in conference and lost in the first round of the ACC Tournament.


Some of these records are pretty surprising.  Certainly you wouldn't have thought Georgia Tech had the best record.  But they actually have played UNC very well in the last three seasons.  Clemson's record is a surprise to me, considering how much success they have had in the last five years.  Of course, they do have that record of never winning in Chapel Hill, which doesn't help.


So what does this mean?  Obviously, it means that two teams are completely dominating one conference.  But when it comes to the NCAA Tournament, it means this: one of the biggest factors in determining whether you get a bid is who you've beaten.  There really is no opportunity to get a win that will raise eyebrows in the ACC unless you beat Duke and UNC.  And they have made beating them very difficult.


In other conferences, you see a little more rotation in the top programs, letting other teams into the NCAA Tournament.  The Pac 10 was dominated by UCLA a few years ago.  Not anymore.  Kentucky has been dominant in some years in the SEC and much less so in others.  Even in the Big East, powers like Syracuse, UConn and Pitt have seasons in which they lose eight games in conference.


So until the ACC can have a program emerge that can consistently beat Duke and UNC, it will remain a league of haves and have-nots.  That makes 2 haves and 10 have-nots.  Of course, expansion will change all this.  But I'll worry about that another time.