Blogging ACC Hoops

2012-02-13T15:25:00.000-05:00

The Week Ahead

This weekend was stabilizing for a couple of teams who were coming off tough losses. North Carolina rebounded from the Duke loss to take care of Virginia, pretty easily in the second half. Florida State got a bounceback win at home against Miami, stopping the Hurricanes' hot streak. I was in Blacksburg yesterday to see Virginia Tech pull a rabbit out of its hat against Boston College.

Here's the schedule for this week:

Tuesday:

Virginia at Clemson (7:00 p.m., ESPNU)
Clemson got a somewhat surprisingly easily win on the road against Wake this weekend. I think that probably says more about Wake than Clemson. Virginia needs to bounce back from a poor performance in Chapel Hill with a road win against a lesser team. They are still not a lock for the NCAA Tournament.

Wednesday:

Georgia Tech at Wake Forest (7:30 p.m., FSN)
The battle of the two worst teams in the conference. Both teams have really struggled, and each have only two conference wins. This game is for basketball purists only.

North Carolina at Miami (8:00 p.m., ESPN)
Miami lost the chance to pick up a big win on the road at Florida State, but they have another chance if they can knock off North Carolina. The Heels beat Miami pretty easily in Chapel Hill, but that was back when Miami was still trying to break Reggie Johnson back in the lineup.

Thursday:

Virginia Tech at Florida State (7:00 p.m., ESPN2)
Virginia Tech was lucky to win at home against Boston College on Sunday. They are going to have a tough time in Tallahassee against a team that already beat them in Blacksburg. If Dorian Finney-Smith can keep playing well offensively, he can make it difficult for the big guys of Florida State and keep it close.

Boston College at Maryland (9:00 p.m., ACC Network)
BC is playing significantly better than they were in the first couple months of the season. If they can keep up their hot outside shooting, they have a chance against Maryland. The Terps are a bit deflated after an uninspired loss to Duke in which Pe'Shon Howard was lost for the season and Terrell Stoglin mouthed off about sitting on the bench.

NC State at Duke (9:00 p.m, ACC Network)
Good matchup here. NC State has had a week to prepare for this game. Duke struggled a bit at home against Maryland, and has already lost twice at Cameron this year. I don't expect NC State to win, but they have the talent to hang with the Blue Devils.

2012-02-10T12:23:00.000-05:00

Weekend Preview

Aside from the big UNC/Duke game that I already reviewed, there wasn't much of note in the ACC this week. There was, however, a pretty surprising upset, as Florida State lost to Boston College. That has to be a big boost for BC, which some people thought wouldn't win an ACC game this year.

Only five ACC games this weekend - Georgia Tech and NC State are off.

Saturday:

Miami at Florida State (1:00 p.m., ACC Network)
A couple of very intriguing games at 1:00 on Saturday. The battle of Florida takes on extra importance as both teams are in the hunt for a top 4 seed. Florida State wants to prove that the BC game was a fluke. And Miami's looking to upgrade its NCAA resume with a signature road win. This is probably the most meaningful FSU/Miami game in a long time.

Virginia at North Carolina (1:00 p.m., ACC Network)
We'll learn a lot about the toughness of North Carolina in this game. How will they respond after the crushing Duke loss against a Virginia team that is very tough to play against? Virginia played very well against Wake Forest and will need another great effort from Mike Scott against Carolina's frontline if they have a chance at the road upset.

Maryland at Duke (4:00 p.m., ESPN)
This could be a sneaky game for Duke. The Blue Devils are coming off the emotional high of the win against North Carolina. They have also played better on the road this year than at home, which is pretty unusual. Maryland is playing pretty solid basketball, with a nice road win against Clemson this week. They generally play Duke tough at Cameron too.

Clemson at Wake Forest (4:00 p.m., FSN)
Wake really struggled in Charlottesville, and Clemson has played very poorly on offense the last two games. This will most likely be a close, low-scoring game that could go either way.

Sunday:

Boston College at Virginia Tech (6:00 p.m., ESPNU)
A month ago it was unthinkable that BC could possibly sweep Virginia Tech. But with a confidence building win over Florida State, they have a chance to win in Blacksburg. Virginia Tech looked lifeless against Miami, and may just be playing out the string the rest of the season.

2012-02-09T11:12:00.000-05:00

Analysis: Duke vs. UNC

Big-time players make shots in big moments, and it doesn't get much bigger than last night for Austin Rivers. You knew once the clock hit about 4 seconds that Rivers was not going to pass the ball. And he delivered in a big way for Duke, getting a huge road win.

What a series of events for Tyler Zeller in the last minute. Zeller dominated in the first half, and was the main reason why UNC was able to stay in it early. But in the last minute: Zeller makes 1 of 2 free throws, Zeller accidentally tips in a ball that counts as two points for Duke, Zeller makes 1 of 2 free throws, Zeller is caught guarding Rivers and gives up the final shot.

The truth of the matter is that UNC should never have lost this game. There was no point in the second half up until the very end that I thought that Duke was going to win. The Tar Heels made a great defensive adjustment at halftime to really shut down the three point shooters and force them to go inside. Harrison Barnes got hot in the second half and started hitting everything. Everything was going the Tar Heels' way.

But you have to put away the Blue Devils when you have the chance. Where was Barnes in the last five minutes? Where was John Henson? It is not often that you see Carolina get rattled in their own building, but it happened.

So what does this all mean? For one, it throws the ACC race into a big jumble. Especially with Florida State's surprising loss to Boston College. Duke still has some issues to address, but they have a very real chance at winning the league, since they get UNC at Cameron later this year. Duke's schedule plays out pretty favorably, with a road game at Florida State the only likely loss. Carolina has a tougher road, with two games against Virginia, and road games at Miami and NC State.

Just like Coach K questioned Duke's mental toughness on Sunday, Roy Williams might be questioning his team's mental toughness now. If you have that much talent as Carolina does, you have to be able to finish games like that.

2012-02-06T13:08:00.000-05:00

The Week Ahead

It was an interesting weekend in the ACC. The headline is definitely Duke's loss at home to Miami in overtime. It was surprising enough that Duke lost a second home game this year, to a Miami team that hadn't done much this year. What's even more surprising is just how poorly Duke played in overtime after they had rallied to tie the game. That prompted some harsh criticism from Coach K:
Coach K Questions Team's Toughness

On the other side, this is a very good win for Miami. They are now right into the NCAA Tournament conversation, but need to do a lot more to merit a bid.

The other big game this weekend was Florida State beating Virginia by three at home. FSU was ahead pretty much the whole game, and withstood a Virginia run to pull one out at home. The Seminoles are 7-1 in conference and have a very favorable schedule ahead. Their next tough game is February 18th at NC State.

Here's a look at this week's games:

Tuesday:

Maryland at Clemson (7:00 p.m., ESPNU)
Maryland missed an opportunity to get a signature win at home against UNC. They have played well in their last two games only to lose both. It will be tough to win at Clemson, where the Tigers have played well.

Wednesday:

Florida State at Boston College (7:00 p.m.)
Trap game? It's hard to see Florida State losing to BC. The Eagles came close to a win at Georgia Tech but have not beaten a team anywhere near the caliber of Florida State this year.

Wake Forest at Virginia (7:00 p.m., FSN)
Wake actually played decently this weekend on the road against NC State. They will need a similar offensive performance to knock off Virginia. The Cavaliers played pretty well even in a loss in Tallahassee.

Duke at North Carolina (9:00 p.m., ACC Network or ESPN)
This is obviously the game of the week, as it always is when these two teams play. I'm interested to see how Duke comes out. They should be angry and wanting to prove their coach wrong. But they don't have the talent level to match Carolina, especially in Chapel Hill. Duke needs someone to step up and be a leader both on and off the court. I don't think Austin Rivers is that guy right now. If Duke can get both Curry and Dawkins hitting 3s, they can stay in this game until the end. But if Carolina plays up to their ability, they will win by 10.

Thursday:

NC State at Georgia Tech (7:00 p.m., ESPNU)
NC State is coasting through a very easy portion of their schedule, with three straight games against the three worst teams in the league. Georgia Tech had to feel good about finally getting a win, but they still have some serious issues. You have to think the Wolfpack are the favorite on the road, even though the Yellow Jackets won the first meeting in Raleigh.

Virginia Tech at Miami (9:00 p.m., ESPN2)
Like Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech had to feel good about getting a home win under their belts. Miami should be riding high after their win at Cameron, but this is exactly the type of game that previous Miami teams would lose. We'll see if Coach Larranaga has imparted a different mindset on this team.

Final Thoughts:

I wanted to say a few words about the job Steve Donahue has done at Boston College. Many people looked at the Eagles on paper and saw how little talent they had and thought they would be worse than last year's Wake Forest team. Well, last year Wake went 1-15 in the league and only lost one game by less than 10 points. So far Boston College is 2-7 in conference. Two of their seven losses have been by less than 10 points. So obviously the numbers aren't great, but they are showing signs of improvement. They at least seem to play together a lot more than Wake's team did last year. The schedule is pretty tough going ahead - they only have three home games left, and two of them are against Florida State and Duke. But they have a chance to not finish in last place in the league, which is something nobody thought a month or so ago.

2012-02-04T12:40:00.000-05:00

The Bottom

In the ongoing series of trying to figure out why the ACC has been down lately, I decided to take a look at the bottom. The ACC is filled with proud programs who have a rich history in basketball (for the most part). These teams are not used to struggling. And usually bad years are just an anomaly. So are the worst teams in the league getting worse? I took a look at the last 10 years in the ACC, and compiled a list of the 10 worst records in that time. Here's what it looks like:

As you can see, last year's Wake Forest team made the top of the list. There isn't a whole lot you can look at as trends, but I did pick up on one thing. For the most part this list is pretty spread out among the last 10 years. But there are three seasons which have more than one team on the list. One was the 2001-2002 season, which was a very bad year for the ACC, namely because North Carolina was so bad. That year four of the nine ACC teams finished with overall records below .500. One of the other years with more than one on the list was last season. Wake Forest was the only team in the last 10 years to not win more than one conference game.

Most years I found that on average two teams finished with overall records below .500. And a lot of times one of those teams would be in the range of 15-16, not terrible. Last year three teams finished with records below .500. This year Boston College, Georgia Tech and Wake Forest will almost certainly finish below .500. And there's a decent chance that Clemson and/or Virginia Tech will do the same.

The bottom line is, someone has to finish last every year. So not everyone's going to have a good record. But teams can still perform well in their non-conference games so their record doesn't look so bad. What these numbers mean is that more teams are just not very competitive than there usually are, which is a big reason why the ACC is down.

Before I wrap up, a couple other observations from that list of worst 10 records. First off, it's amazing that Paul Hewitt stayed at Georgia Tech as long as he did. Yes, he had some good seasons, but he made this list three times. In a fourth season, Georgia Tech finished 15-17. Also, it's hard to look at this and blame ACC expansion. Of the three schools added, only Miami in 2006-2007 made the bottom 10 list. So Miami, BC and Virginia Tech have held their own and not been ACC doormats. You also might be surprised that NC State is not on this list, for as much grief as Sidney Lowe got. Yes, they weren't very good. But they typically took care of business early in the season. Twice NC State finished with 15-16 records despite really struggling in the ACC.

2012-02-03T13:14:00.000-05:00

Weekend Preview

Not a lot of note from the past week. The best game was definitely a wild affair in Coral Gables, with Miami beating Maryland in double overtime, in a game that featured Mark Turgeon being ejected. Duke and North Carolina both got comfortable road wins against lesser opponents. And Florida State shook off a poor first half to beat Georgia Tech and keep their roll going.

This weekend's schedule doesn't set up all that well for fans. There are five games on Saturday, but three games are going on at 1:00 and two games are at 4:00. Fortunately there are a couple of solid matchups.

Saturday:

Boston College at Georgia Tech (1:00 p.m., ESPNU)
The matchup between probably the worst two teams in the conference, both in bad need of a win. This one will not be pretty to watch.

Virginia at Florida State (1:00 p.m., ACC Network)
The game of the weekend, in my opinion. Florida State has been riding high in the last few weeks. Virginia struggled to put away Clemson, but is still one of the top four teams in the conference and has the ability to win on the road. If Virginia can knock down some 3s, they can win.

Wake Forest at NC State (1:00 p.m., ACC Network)
It seems like these two teams just played, and it was not a pretty affair in Winston-Salem. NC State destroyed Wake, and I don't think that's going to change in this one. Wake needs to be careful or they might see another swoon like they had last year.

North Carolina at Maryland (4:00 p.m., ESPN)
Maryland has lived for home games against UNC and Duke in the last several years. They failed at home against Duke, and have another chance at a signature win. I was impressed with how the Terps held together in Miami. But UNC is a different animal. They played poorly on the road against Wake and still won very easily.

Clemson at Virginia Tech (4:00 p.m., FSN)
Clemson hasn't won a road game in the ACC. Virginia Tech hasn't won a home game in the ACC. Something has to give here. Clemson actually played decently in Charlottesville. Virginia Tech has to guard against a letdown after losing to Duke.

Sunday:

Miami at Duke (3:00 p.m., ESPNU)
This game is moved up from the normal 6:00 p.m. spot because of the Super Bowl. Duke is getting better contributions from Mason Plumlee, which is helping them to be more balanced. Miami to me has been a bit of a disappointment, struggling to put away games like their home game against Maryland.

Final Thoughts:

The ACC released information Friday about how the conference will look when Pitt and Syracuse join. I have never been a fan of this move, but it's inevitable so I'll have to live with it. It will be interesting to see the ACC go to 18 conference games. I think that will be a net positive, although the conference needs to improve. Teams should benefit from playing more conference games against stiffer competition. But if the ACC continues to be down, that won't be as much of a benefit as playing strong teams from other conferences. Of course, Pitt and Syracuse both bring great pedigrees in basketball, so some of the other schools will just be adding two L's to their schedule when they join the conference.

2012-01-30T18:50:00.000-05:00

The Week Ahead

It wasn't a very strong slate of games this past weekend, and not much of note happened. Virginia did earn the best win of the weekend, holding on to a late lead and knocking off NC State by one on the road. The other games went pretty much according to form. So here's a look at what you can expect to see this week:

Tuesday:

Clemson at Virginia (7:00 p.m., ESPN2)
Virginia seems to be back to playing the kind of basketball they were playing before the Virginia Tech game. Clemson has had an easy last couple games and will be tested on the road. Expect a low-scoring affair.

North Carolina at Wake Forest (9:00 p.m., ESPNU)
Wake has not looked very competitive in their last couple games, and are in for a significant challenge here. The point spread didn't look that big for UNC's win over Georgia Tech, but they dominated that game and could have won by 30 if they wanted to. This one has the makings of a blowout.

Wednesday:

Georgia Tech at Florida State (7:00 p.m., FSN)
Florida State has been off a week and has a chance to keep their momentum going with a win against the Yellow Jackets. I don't see them having any problem in winning this one by double digits. Georgia Tech just is not good right now.

Maryland at Miami (8:00 p.m., ACC Network)
This could be the best game of the week. Maryland has played pretty well at home, but has yet to win on the road in conference. Miami took a long time to shake off Boston College but is playing better basketball. Expect a lot of up and down in this one.

NC State at Boston College (8:00 p.m., ACC Network)
NC State needs to shake off the disappointment of the last week and come ready to play in this one. Steve Donahue is getting his team to compete despite being extremely short on talent. BC can sneak up and win this game, but only if NC State doesn't bring a strong effort.

Thursday:

Duke at Virginia Tech (7:00 p.m., ESPN)
Coach K was not happy with how Duke played down the stretch in their win against St. John's. You can expect them to come out motivated in this one. Virginia Tech has played very poorly in the first half in ACC play, and can't get behind by double digits in this one, or it will be over fast.

2012-01-27T13:04:00.000-05:00

Weekend Preview

There wasn't a lot of drama in this week's ACC games. The only game that came down to the wire was a non-conference affair, BYU beating Virginia Tech by two. All of the top four won their games by double digits (UNC, Duke, UVA and FSU). This weekend's slate of games is not the strongest, but does have one very interesting Saturday night matchup.

Here's a look ahead (Florida State is off):

Saturday:

St. John's at Duke (12:00 p.m., ESPN)
Duke has been playing St. John's for several years now, with mixed success. Last year the Johnnies won a big game against Duke at home. They aren't the same team this year, though, playing with a lot of young players. Duke should be able to win this one by double digits.

Wake Forest at Clemson (12:00 p.m., ACC Network)
Wake has struggled to play with any consistency in ACC play. Clemson has had a week off after beating Georgia Tech at home. This game doesn't mean much other than positioning in the bottom half of the standings.

Virginia Tech at Maryland (2:30 p.m., ACC Network)
Maryland had a chance to beat their most hated rival on Wednesday, but ran out of steam against Duke. They have to avoid a letdown in this one against a Virginia Tech team that has been playing a little better but still has a lot of ground to make up after a bad conference start.

Virginia at NC State (8:00 p.m., ESPN2)
This is definitely the matchup of the weekend. Virginia needs to get back to playing solid basketball - they struggled most of the game against Boston College. NC State had a chance to score a big win against UNC but looked completely overmatched. If Virginia can win this one, they can establish themselves as the third best team in the conference.

Sunday:

Miami at Boston College (1:00 p.m., ACC Network)
Miami's schedule has gotten a lot easier since their tough start, and should be able to win a second road game this week. Boston College had an admirable effort for 35 minutes against Virginia but faded down the stretch. I can't imagine a lot of people will be at this game.

Georgia Tech at North Carolina (6:00 p.m., ESPNU)
Carolina has looked very strong in its last game and a half. They should have no trouble with the struggling Yellow Jackets, who are currently last in the standings. Brian Gregory may be a good coach, but right now he is having a hard time getting his guys to compete offensively.

2012-01-23T13:01:00.000-05:00

The Week Ahead

It was a good weekend to be the road team in the ACC. Out of the five conference games, only Clemson was able to hold serve at home. Obviously the biggest result was Florida State getting a Michael Snaer 3-pointer at the buzzer to win in Cameron, breaking Duke's long home winning streak. Duke did not look like the fourth-best team in the country. And Florida State is certainly playing with a lot more confidence than they had just a couple weeks ago. There was also a surprising result in Charlottesville, as Virginia Tech was able to completely shut down UVA's offense and win on the road. Coming off UVA's beatdown of Georgia Tech, it was hard to see that coming.

NC State also had a very nice win on the road against Miami. They were actually in firm control in this game in the second half before getting a little out of control and letting Miami back into it.

Here's the schedule for the week ahead (Clemson is off):

Tuesday:

Miami at Georgia Tech (9:00 p.m., ESPNU)
Both of these teams have to be disappointed right now. Miami blew a chance to get a solid win and lost at home to NC State. Georgia Tech has been terrible offensively in its last two games. Miami is the only one with NCAA Tournament aspirations, so they need to win this one.

Wednesday:

BYU at Virginia Tech (7:00 p.m.)
Virginia Tech steps out of conference for this one. BYU isn't the same team it was a year ago, when it had The Jimmer, but is still a team with a good shot at the NCAAs. It might be natural for the Hokies to have a letdown in this one, but they need to win to build some momentum.

Florida State at Wake Forest (7:00 p.m., FSN)
Florida State is certainly riding high and will definitely be favored in this second straight game on Tobacco Road. Wake got a decent win on the road against BC, but still hasn't shown any consistency at all. If they can keep this one within single digits, that will be an accomplishment.

Duke at Maryland (9:00 p.m., ESPN)
This has been a great rivalry for at least the last 15 years, but probably doesn't quite have the luster this year. Duke is looking to rebound after a poor performance at home against Florida State. Maryland is coming off two straight road losses. This is the first really good home test for the Terps this year.

Thursday:

NC State at North Carolina (7:00 p.m., ESPN)
This has been a one-sided rivalry in recent years, especially in Chapel Hill. But if NC State can continue the way they've been playing, they have a decent shot. The Heels have been inconsistent in the last couple games, but I would think they'd have renewed focus after a week off.

Boston College at Virginia (9:00 p.m., ESPNU)
The Cavaliers have a chance to get back to feeling good about themselves with a home game against the ACC's worst team. BC's Coach Steve Donahue seems a bit concerned about the way his team has played in recent games, and seeing a snowball effect. I don't expect this game to help their mindset.

Final Thoughts:

I thought I had a pretty good handle on who the top four teams in the league were, in order. After Duke's loss to Florida State, I thought UVA was pretty firmly the second best team. Then they came out and looked completely lost on offense against Virginia Tech. A lot of people are putting Florida State up there. I still have some concerns about their offensive consistency - we'll see what happens when their hot streak cools off. So right now, I would put Duke back in that number two spot. I will not move North Carolina from the number one spot unless they go on some big losing streak.

The positive from this past week? It looks more likely that the ACC will get four teams in the league, and maybe even five if NC State continues to play well. I still think the magic number is 10. If you can get to 10 conference wins, you're in pretty good shape.

2012-01-20T13:00:00.000-05:00

Weekend Preview

This week we saw some separation start to build between the haves and the have-nots. For the most part, the games were not very competitive at all. Here are the margins of victory this week: 14, 3, 18, 14, 32, 14. North Carolina played okay basketball for one half and then got back to their full potential in the second half in blowing by Virginia Tech. If Harrison Barnes can play like he did in the second half, this team can beat anyone in the country. Virginia also had a very nice performance on the road at Georgia Tech. They methodically beat down the Yellow Jackets with their suffocating defense.

Here's a look ahead at the weekend (North Carolina is off):

Saturday:

Maryland at Temple (11:00 a.m., ESPNU)
This is the rare 11:00 a.m. game, and a tough non-conference matchup for the Terps. Their offense has been playing pretty well but they had a tough time stopping Florida State. Temple is tough to beat at home, with a win over Duke earlier this year.

Wake Forest at Boston College (12:00 p.m., ACC Network)
Yuck. That's all I have to say about this game. In all seriousness, though, this will be a big accomplishment for whoever wins. Wake will already exceed their ACC win total from last year if they can win on the road. If BC wins, they will have three conference wins - a big accomplishment for this team.

Georgia Tech at Clemson (2:30 p.m., ACC Network)
Georgia Tech had a terrible offensive performance against Virginia, shooting 1-15 from three. Clemson played a little better than I thought they would at Miami, but still lost. Neither one of these teams is going very far this year.

Florida State at Duke (4:00 p.m., ESPN)
This is the most publicized of the matchups this weekend. Florida State comes in hot. Duke comes off a very solid offensive performance against Wake. Florida State has a history of playing well in Cameron. I can buy into Florida State being a top half team in the ACC, but I don't think they have enough offense to win this game.

Sunday:

NC State at Miami (12:00 p.m., ESPNU)
To me this is the most intriguing matchup of the weekend. NC State has played very solidly since losing at home to Georgia Tech. Miami has a lot of talent and is very close to being 2-1 in conference. I tend to favor the Wolfpack in this one - I expect CJ Leslie to have a good game.

Virginia Tech at Virginia (6:00 p.m., ESPNU)
Virginia Tech played its best conference game against North Carolina but still came up short. They will need another effort like that to have a chance against Virginia. The Cavaliers are playing very solidly right now, and are playing their way into a very good seed in the NCAA Tournament.

2012-01-16T13:01:00.000-05:00

The Week Ahead

Another weekend of games is over, with some big headlines. This weekend saw both of the top two teams in the ACC go on the road, with very different results. You won't see a more bizarre outcome than what happened in Tallahassee on Saturday. Florida State jumped on UNC from the get-go and really took it to them in the second half. I tend to think this is more of a fluke game than anything, as I haven't seen anything else this season to indicate that either FSU is that good or UNC is that bad. Duke, on the other hand, came out and won a game they were supposed to on the road at Clemson. The Tigers made it tough at the end but Duke used a huge 3 by Andre Dawkins and some offensive rebounds to close it out.

Here's the slate of games for this week:

Tuesday:

Maryland at Florida State (9:00 p.m., ESPNU)
Florida State has a chance to build on their momentum from Saturday with a third straight win. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see them struggle in this game, a natural letdown. But they should still have enough to beat the Terps. Maryland is quietly doing what they need to do to stay in the NCAA Tournament hunt, but they need a marquee win.

Wednesday:

Clemson at Miami (7:00 p.m., FSN)
Miami has had a week off after their loss to UNC and should be able to get their first conference win here. Clemson has shown flashes that they can be a solid team but they haven't shown the ability to play well on the road.

Thursday:

Wake Forest at Duke (7:00 p.m., ESPN)
Wake looked like the Wake of last year in their horrible performance at home against NC State on Saturday. Now they have to go to Cameron. I think they'll play a little better but Duke should still be able to win this one by 20.

BC at NC State (8:00 p.m., ACC Network)
Not many people thought BC would be sitting at 2-1 in conference at this point, so you have to give them credit. They will be hard pressed to get a win in this one, though, unless NC State lays another egg defensively like they did against Georgia Tech.

Virginia at Georgia Tech (8:00 p.m., ACC Network)
Georgia Tech struggled offensively in their game with Maryland yesterday, and will probably have a tough time against Virginia's defense. This is an interesting game for the Cavaliers, and one they need to win if they want to be taken seriously as a contender on the national scene.

North Carolina at Virginia Tech (9:00 p.m., ESPN)
Virginia Tech is just a mess right now, and taking on an angry UNC team is not the prescription for getting healthy. I expect Zeller and Henson to have big games. Tech should play better than they have been but will probably still lose by double digits.

Final Thoughts:

A lot of people, including me, were pretty surprised by what went down in Tallahassee on Saturday. But it is a fact that teams get up for their games against UNC and Duke. They want to knock off the best. What was surprising about it is how UNC just didn't compete. Teams that have national championship aspirations don't lose by 30 points in any game. That being said, I still feel right now that the ACC is a three bid league. Yes, Florida State got a good resume building win. But all that does at this point is cancels out one or two of the bad losses. They still have to prove that they can be consistent, and at this point I don't see them doing better than 9-7 in conference.

2012-01-15T11:34:00.000-05:00

What's Wrong with the Hokies?

I think I had a similar post around this time last year. Things are dire indeed in Blacksburg. Saturday's game against Boston College was the first time in a while that I've had the impulse to throw everything in my apartment. It was just an absolute mess. If it had been a one game occurrence, okay, you write that off. But that is three straight games of total ineptitude. Yes, expectations weren't that high for this season with a bunch of new players. But it seems like the level of play has dropped off dramatically once we started ACC play.

I think one of the main problems is inconsistency. Not among the team as a whole, but the players. It's true, the team has four freshmen who are playing significant minutes. And you can probably add Cadarian Raines and Jarell Eddie to that mix, who have barely played in previous years. But it's not just them. Victor Davila and Dorenzo Hudson will have solid games and then have games where they completely disappear. Let's look at the freshmen:

That is not a lot of production. Which one of these players would you say is shooting with confidence right now? Maybe Barksdale. That's it. Yes, they are freshmen, but a lot of teams have a ton of young players. Just look at Boston College. They look like a team full of walk-ons, but have still been able to win two ACC games.

Obviously the stabilizing force in this team is Erick Green. He has scored in double figures in every game this year, and carried the team down the stretch against Florida State. But it's very easy to say if Green had played against BC the Hokies would have won. What evidence do you have to support that? Virginia Tech's offense against Wake and Florida State was terrible and Green played in those games. That's not to say that Green is not important. But you should be able to play without one of your players and still get guys to step up and contribute.

Coach Seth Greenberg in his post-game comments yesterday pointed out that all three losses in conference were close games - three losses by a total of nine points. It's not the score though, it's how you play the game. If you watched the team play, you could see that they just weren't competing and executing offensively like they should. And that is a bigger problem than losing by a few points.

So what's the solution? Many people are calling for a new coach. I can see the argument for that. I would just say that it is not a given that bringing in a new coach will solve your problems. Just look at what has happened at Wake Forest. There are examples on both sides. Take a look at what has happened in Charlottesville. Dave Leitao was a similarly demeanored coach to Seth who had some early success, recruited some very good players, but eventually frustrated the fanbase. They made a very smart hire, got a good coach in Tony Bennett, and have steadily improved. Can this happen in Blacksburg? Sure. But it's not a given.

I generally try to stay positive and upbeat about my team. I've been through some tough times with the program in my first couple years at Tech. But despite the youth, what's happened in the last few games is pretty unacceptable. And Seth knows that. It's up to him to get the guys to respond and play like they are capable of playing.

2012-01-13T13:53:00.000-05:00

Weekend Preview

The ACC continues to confound, and not in a good way. This week there was an excellent game between Duke and Virginia, and a whole lot of garbage. The top three teams continue to separate themselves, and it is looking more like whoever finishes fourth will finish there by default. Florida State and Virginia Tech played one of the worst games you will ever see - neither one of those teams look like they are going anywhere. NC State somehow lost at home to Georgia Tech in a game that wasn't even that close. And Clemson followed up their big win over Florida State by losing to hapless Boston College. The end of that game was a comedy of errors.

So moving on, here's a look at the games this weekend. Miami and Virginia have the weekend off.

Saturday:

NC State at Wake Forest (1:00 p.m., ACC Network)
NC State had a golden opportunity to get off to a really good start in conference, but ruined that with a home loss to Georgia Tech. Wake showed a little fight in a road loss at Maryland. NC State has more talent, but it wouldn't surprise me if they lost this game.

UNC at Florida State (2:00 p.m., ESPN)
This looked like a much more attractive matchup before the season started. Florida State just doesn't have enough offensive firepower to compete with the Heels. If they turn it over 20 times, like they have been, they could get blown out of the gym.

Virginia Tech at Boston College (3:00 p.m., FSN)
A couple weeks ago, this looked like an automatic win for Virginia Tech. They should still win, but they have to play better than they played last week at Wake Forest. Boston College is still inept but found a way to win a conference game, which some people thought wouldn't happen at all this year.

Sunday:

Georgia Tech at Maryland (4:00 p.m., ACC Network)
Georgia Tech has definitely shown an improvement in the last two games, and has a chance on the road at Maryland. The Terps were up and down in their win over Wake, and is still looking to find some consistency. This will probably be a competitive but ugly game.

Duke at Clemson (6:00 p.m., ESPNU)
Clemson played well at home last weekend, but erased all that good feeling with their performance last night in Chestnut Hill. Duke isn't quite playing like a top 10 team right now but I can't see them laying an egg and losing to Clemson. Coach K will have them ready to play.

Final Thoughts:

Right now it seems like the gap between North Carolina and Duke is larger than the gap between Duke and Virginia. The Cavaliers might lose a game they shouldn't, but they have a real shot at finishing with an ACC record like 12-4 or 11-5. Besides the top three, who has played two good games in a row? The closest candidate is probably Georgia Tech. And who would have thought that a couple weeks ago?
It's hard to not be doom and gloom about the ACC this year, but so far teams have not stepped up to the plate and advertised that they want to be considered for the NCAA Tournament. Let's hope that starts to happen in the next couple weeks.

2012-01-09T13:07:00.000-05:00

The Week Ahead

My note at the end of the last blog proved true, as road teams found life very difficult in the ACC over the weekend. Home teams won in five of the six games. The only road team that won was Duke, and that game was much tighter than expected. These games really didn't do much to provide clarity as to who's good and who isn't, which isn't necessarily good for the league as a whole. It is looking more and more likely that this will be a three bid league. There's still time for things to change, though, starting with this week. Here's what's on tap:

Tuesday:

Florida State at Virginia Tech (7:00 p.m., ESPNU)
Both teams had very disappointing performances on Saturday. The Seminoles can't score, but will stay in games with their defense. Virginia Tech can hit outside shots, but don't have the size to match FSU down low. Both teams have NCAA Tournament aspirations, and the loser will really be behind the 8-ball.

Miami at North Carolina (9:00 p.m., ACC Network)
Miami had a very good chance at pulling off a good road win at UVA. Now they are staring a 0-2 start in conference in the face with a road trip to Chapel Hill. The Heels were a little underwhelming against Boston College and can't take Miami lightly.

Wednesday:

Wake Forest at Maryland (7:00 p.m., FSN)
Wake played well in a win against Virginia Tech, and will look to build some momentum on the road against Maryland. The Terps lost a close one to NC State, but you never really felt like they were going to win that game. If Maryland is going to make some strides, they need to win this game.

Georgia Tech at NC State (9:00 p.m., FSN)
The Wolfpack have a very friendly start to conference play, with home games against Maryland and Georgia Tech. They are still looking for that killer instinct and the ability to put teams away at the end. Georgia Tech played improved basketball against Duke but the Jackets are still a work in progress.

Thursday:

Clemson at Boston College (7:00 p.m., ESPN2)
For as poorly as Clemson was playing, they have a very good shot at starting 2-0. They had a nice win over Florida State, and get a road game against the conference's worst team. Boston College didn't play as poorly as I expected them to in Chapel Hill, but wins will be hard to come by this year.

Virginia at Duke (9:00 p.m., ESPN)
This is the best matchup of the week. Virginia added to their winning streak against Miami, and is playing with a lot of confidence right now. Duke is struggling to find its defensive identity a bit. That being said, it is always very difficult to win at Cameron. If Virginia can keep this in the 50s, they can win.

2012-01-06T13:16:00.000-05:00

Conference Games Start!

At long last, we are starting the slate of conference games in the ACC. All 12 teams play their first conference game this weekend. Here's a look ahead:

Saturday:

Duke at Georgia Tech (12:00 p.m., ESPNU)
Duke is coming off a tough (and a little surprising) loss on the road at Temple. They have way too much talent to lose to Georgia Tech though. The Yellow Jackets are a work in progress and were not competitive in a home game earlier this week against Alabama. I would expect Duke to win this one by about 20.

Virginia Tech at Wake Forest (12:00 p.m., ACC Network)
The Hokies have been playing pretty well for the past month or so, and coming off a good road win at Oklahoma State. Wake has played a little better this year but just lost to Wofford at home (they were without their best player C.J. Harris though). If the Hokies are going to make a serious case for an NCAA Tournament bid this year, they need to win games like this.

Boston College at North Carolina (2:30 p.m., ACC Network)
I'm glad we're getting this game out of the way early. It doesn't get any more of a mismatch than this - the worst team on the road against the best team. Boston College is coming off a double overtime loss at home to a Rhode Island team that had previously won two games. UNC may win this one by 40 points.

Florida State at Clemson (4:00 p.m., ESPN2)
Two teams that have been a bit of a disappointment so far this year meet in Littlejohn. At this point, Florida State would have to be the favorite, even on the road. They still struggle to score at times, though. The Seminoles definitely need this game to build their team back up.

Miami at Virginia (6:00 p.m., ESPNU)
This is in my opinion the best matchup of the weekend. Miami is playing a little better since getting Reggie Johnson back. Virginia got a very nice road win at LSU and is looking like a solid #3 team in the conference. If Johnson can play well defensively on Mike Scott, Miami has a chance.

Sunday:

Maryland at NC State (6:00 p.m., ESPNU)
This is one of the biggest differences with the new ACC/ESPN television package - instead of the Sunday Night Hoops game on FSN, there will be a weekly 6 pm game on Sundays on ESPNU. They start out with an intriguing matchup. Maryland is at full strength with Alex Len and Pe'Shon Howard, but I still am not buying that they are a good team. NC State has more talent and needs to win this one at home.

One note - some of these road teams are favored. But it's been proven time and time again how difficult it is to win on the road. Just yesterday, we saw Purdue lose by 20 points at Penn State and Pittsburgh lose to DePaul. To me the difference between good teams and great teams is the ability to win on the road. What I will be interested to see as the year goes on is which teams can show the ability to win away from home - those will be the ones fighting for an NCAA Tournament berth.

2012-01-01T21:19:00.000-05:00

ACC Power Rankings

As we start the new year, it's a good time to look at how the teams are stacking up so far. Conference play gets started in just a few days, and we have seen enough games to get a feel for who's good and who's not. So here is how I see the ACC right now:

1. North Carolina (12-2)
North Carolina has as much talent as any team in the country. You get the feeling that they haven't quite gotten into the groove that they want to be in, but they are still blowing away people. Their one loss to Kentucky is completely understandable. The one to UNLV somewhat less so, but the Heels have won seven in a row.

2. Duke (12-1)
Duke has played very well against a brutal non-conference schedule. Their one loss was a bad performance against Ohio State, but other than that the Devils have really been on a roll. They already have wins against Michigan, Michigan State, Kansas and Washington.

3. Virginia (12-1)
After Duke and Carolina, there is a significant drop to number three. Virginia earns this spot with their play so far this year. They only have one loss, which wasn't a very good one, against TCU. And they haven't played the best schedule. But they have solid wins against Michigan and at Oregon and are the most consistent team besides the top two.

4. Virginia Tech (11-3)
The Hokies are playing better than expected so far, and their three losses are all against good teams (including #1 Syracuse). Oklahoma State isn't a great team, but there aren't many teams in the ACC that would win in Stillwater like the Hokies just did.

5. NC State (10-4)
The Wolfpack have definitely showed a lot of promise at times, but haven't been able to close the deal in home games against Syracuse and Indiana. Their other two losses are against Vanderbilt and at Stanford, not bad at all. They also have a very good neutral court win against Texas. Look out for State, which has a very favorable schedule to start - they could be 5-0 in conference.

6. Florida State (8-5)
It's tough to figure out where to put the Seminoles. They have definitely been disappointing, with very lethargic offense at times. They only managed 10 points in the first half at home against Princeton, a game they lost in triple OT. Beyond that, the losses aren't bad - Harvard, Michigan State, UConn, Florida. But something is definitely off right now.

7. Miami (8-4)
Miami is definitely better off with Reggie Johnson in the lineup, giving them a threat down low. They don't really have any bad losses so far - losing to Ole Miss, Purdue, Memphis and West Virginia. Miami could be a top shelf team in the ACC by the end of things, but they are still a work in progress right now.

8. Maryland (9-3)
Like Miami, the Terps benefit from a big man coming to the team partway through the year. Alex Len will definitely help Maryland. But beyond him and Terrell Stoglin, there isn't much. Losses are to Illinois, Alabama and Iona. They have also struggled to put away lesser opponents like Radford and FIU. Maryland will struggle this year.

9. Clemson (7-6)
For me, Clemson is the biggest disappointment so far this year. They played very poorly in Hawaii, losing to UTEP and Hawaii and needing overtime to beat Southern Illinois. The Tigers have also lost at home to South Carolina, Coastal Carolina and College of Charleston and on the road at Arizona. After making the tournament last year, they are nowhere close right now.

10. Georgia Tech (7-6)
Georgia Tech is in rebuilding mode in the first year under Brian Gregory. They had a very disappointing loss at Fordham in their last game. The Jackets have also lost to St. Joe's, LSU, Northwestern, Tulane and Mercer. They also have a couple good wins against Georgia and VCU. Don't expect much from Georgia Tech this year.

11. Wake Forest (9-4)
I give Wake credit - they haven't played as poorly this year as last. But they still aren't any good. The losses have been to Dayton, Arizona State, Richmond and Seton Hall. They have two wins against big six conference teams (Nebraska and Texas Tech). They also struggled to beat Yale in their last game at home. I'd still be surprised if they win more than four conference games this year.

12. Boston College (5-8)
Boston College is unspeakably bad. They will not get to double digit wins this year. Here are their losses: Holy Cross, UMass, Saint Louis, New Mexico, Penn State, Boston U, Providence, Harvard. Six of those losses are by double digits. Enough said.

2011-12-26T20:28:00.000-05:00

Is the ACC Too Top Heavy?

I took a look before at the turnover in coaches when trying to explain why the ACC is down this year (and the last few years). One other theory that may be playing into it is the top of the league. Duke and UNC are two of the most historic and established programs in the country. They have been dominant throughout the last several decades. And that certainly may be hurting the league. Years like this one show how much they are above everyone else, making it very hard to earn a marquee win. So I ran some numbers, looking at each team's record against Duke and UNC since the league expanded to 12. That means the past six seasons, including ACC Tournament games. You may be surprised who has the best record against the two big boys.

Georgia Tech 7-12 37%
Maryland 7-15 32%
Virginia Tech 5-14 26%
Boston College 5-15 25%
Florida State 5-15 25%
Wake Forest 4-13 24%
Virginia 3-15 17%
Clemson 3-16 16%
NC State 3-19 14%
Miami 2-17 11%

This adds up to a combined record of 44-151. Keep in mind that 12 of those 44 wins came to UNC in one season, when they went 5-11 in conference and lost in the first round of the ACC Tournament.

Some of these records are pretty surprising. Certainly you wouldn't have thought Georgia Tech had the best record. But they actually have played UNC very well in the last three seasons. Clemson's record is a surprise to me, considering how much success they have had in the last five years. Of course, they do have that record of never winning in Chapel Hill, which doesn't help.

So what does this mean? Obviously, it means that two teams are completely dominating one conference. But when it comes to the NCAA Tournament, it means this: one of the biggest factors in determining whether you get a bid is who you've beaten. There really is no opportunity to get a win that will raise eyebrows in the ACC unless you beat Duke and UNC. And they have made beating them very difficult.

In other conferences, you see a little more rotation in the top programs, letting other teams into the NCAA Tournament. The Pac 10 was dominated by UCLA a few years ago. Not anymore. Kentucky has been dominant in some years in the SEC and much less so in others. Even in the Big East, powers like Syracuse, UConn and Pitt have seasons in which they lose eight games in conference.

So until the ACC can have a program emerge that can consistently beat Duke and UNC, it will remain a league of haves and have-nots. That makes 2 haves and 10 have-nots. Of course, expansion will change all this. But I'll worry about that another time.

2011-12-21T17:08:00.000-05:00

Christmas Week Preview

Most teams have the Christmas holiday off, but there are some intriguing games before the year ends. Let's start with the Diamond Head Classic. Clemson travels to Hawaii with a big opportunity to turn their season around. They have been pretty disappointing thus far, and will need to step up their game if they are going to knock off some decent opponents. On Thursday Clemson takes on UTEP, a team out of Conference USA that has not been good thus far. If they win that one, their next game comes Friday against the winner of Kansas State and Southern Illinois (likely Kansas State). The best team on the other side of the bracket is Xavier, which is reeling a bit from suspensions coming out of that brawl.

Texas takes on UNC tonight in a matchup that last year Texas won. The Heels are significantly better than the Longhorns, and should win this one without much trouble.

Florida State has its annual game against rival Florida Thursday night in Gainesville. Many thought the Seminoles were a lock for the NCAA Tournament going into the year, but they haven't done anything to show that they deserve it. After losing three games in a row, they have won three straight against underwhelming competition. This game will be a much bigger challenge. After Thursday, the games don't really start cranking back up until December 29.

A couple of other thoughts:

Virginia is starting to look more and more like the third best team in the conference - at least right now. They had a solid road win at Oregon and only have a rather head-scratching loss against TCU on the record. Every team besides Duke and UNC has question marks, leaving the door open for teams like Virginia to try and snag an NCAA Tournament berth. Teams like Virginia Tech, NC State and Miami have shown flashes but whether they can produce when the competition steps up in ACC play is still a big question.

2011-12-18T11:41:00.000-05:00

Thoughts on Saturday's Games

The schedule is pretty light this time of year, but there were a couple intriguing games on Saturday's schedule in the ACC. The two most high profile games were marked by poor defense. Let's start in Raleigh, where NC State played some inspired basketball but still lost at home to Syracuse by 16. NC State came out on fire, hitting all their shots and building a lead, but Syracuse went on a huge run in the first half that was back-breaking. At times, NC State did a great job of getting out in transition and getting to the basket against the Syracuse zone. But like the Indiana game, their defense was their downfall, giving up 88 points.

Miami certainly has some weapons on offense, as they showed in their two overtime win against Florida Atlantic yesterday. Reggie Johnson returned and proved that he can be a force down low. However, he looks really overweight to me and a bit slow. Teams would be wise to force him to come out to the free throw line and guard people, taking advantage of his lack of speed. Coach Larranaga has to be upset by the lack of defense Miami played. Florida Atlantic (coached by Mike Jarvis) had way too many easy shots down the stretch. The two teams combined to shoot 29 for 49 from 3! Miami can be a top half team in the ACC with their talent, but they need to start playing some D to make up for the days when their shooters aren't hitting.

The rest of the day was pretty light. Virginia Tech got a solid 25 point win over Campbell. Tech fans have to be pretty happy with the play of their four freshmen, who yesterday combined for 27 points. Clemson got a much needed win, albeit over a bad Winthrop team. And UNC got an easy win against an over-matched Appalachian State.

There is one interesting game on the schedule for Sunday. UVA travels west to take on Oregon. The Ducks have been near the bottom of the Pac 10 (or 12) the past couple years but should be right in the middle of that conference this year. This is part of a two game trip for UVA in which they will also take on Seattle.

2011-12-12T21:09:00.000-05:00

Why is the ACC Down?

As someone who grew up watching ACC basketball, it is hard to watch the league struggle to get respect as it has in recent years. This year has started off very poorly, and as I said before once you get into conference play there aren't many opportunities to prove that your conference is strong. So that begs the question: why is the ACC so down? One of the more popular theories is that there has been a lot of coaching turnover. So I want to take a look at the teams that have replaced their coaches in the last two years.

Before I start, I acknowledge that for some of these coaches there really isn't a very large sample size. They haven't had a chance to prove themselves. Plus, coaching isn't everything. Wins and losses are also determined by talent, injuries, schedule, etc. But let's see how these teams shake up.

Boston College

BC replaced Al Skinner before the 2010-2011 season with Steve Donahue. Here's how Skinner did in his last two seasons compared with Donahue's current tenure:

Al Skinner - 37-28 (15-17 ACC) *NCAA bid in 2008-2009
Steve Donahue - 23-20 (9-7 ACC)

Clemson

Oliver Purnell bolted for DePaul after the 2009-2010 season, replaced by Brad Brownell. Here are their numbers:

Oliver Purnell - 44-20 (18-14 ACC) *NCAA bid in both seasons
Brad Brownell - 26-16 (9-7 ACC) *NCAA bid in 2010-2011

As an added number, Purnell in his stint at DePaul is 13-27.

Wake Forest

Jeff Bzdelik took over as coach at Wake after Dino Gaudio was shown the door. I think you'll see the most dramatic numbers here:

Dino Gaudio - 44-18 (20-12 ACC) *NCAA bid in both seasons
Jeff Bzdelik - 14-28 (1-15 ACC)

In each of these three cases, the current coach has a worse winning percentage than the coach they replaced. At Wake and BC, the previous coaches were fired. Bad moves? Maybe. These are three programs that have been to NCAA Tournaments in recent years but have now fallen on hard times, which affects that public perception.

Ok now let's take a quick look at first year coaches. Their numbers will most certainly be incomplete at this point, but it's worth looking at.

Georgia Tech

Paul Hewitt is now the coach at George Mason. Brian Gregory came over from Dayton. Again, these stats for the old coaches are the past two seasons.

Paul Hewitt - 36-31 (12-20 ACC) *NCAA bid in 2009-2010
Brian Gregory - 6-4

Maryland

Gary Williams retired after a long time as the Terps head coach. Mark Turgeon came over from Texas A&M.

Gary Williams - 43-23 (20-12 ACC) *NCAA bid in 2009-2010
Mark Turgeon - 5-3

Miami

Jim Larranaga is the head coach, coming over from George Mason. He replaces Frank Haith, who is doing quite well so far at Missouri.

Frank Haith - 41-28 (10-22 ACC)
Jim Larranaga - 5-4

Look at those numbers for Haith! Miami feasted on less than stellar non-conference competition and then crumbled in the ACC the last two years.

NC State

Mark Gottfried is the new head coach, replacing Sidney Lowe, who isn't going to have very good numbers on here.

Sidney Lowe - 35-32 (10-22 ACC)
Mark Gottfried - 6-3

So what does all this mean? It means a lot of teams are starting from scratch. When new coaches come in, there are often players transferring out, and a lot of turnover. It takes a while for coaches to get to recruit their own players and perform. That doesn't necessarily mean things will get better in the next year or two: of the first-year coaches the only hire that most people agree is an improvement is Gottfried at NC State. New doesn't necessarily mean better. You do have to question some of the decisions to replace coaches and wonder if the league would be better off if people like Gaudio and Skinner had stayed.

2011-12-09T21:44:00.000-05:00

Weekend Update

Relatively speaking, it hasn't been a bad week for the ACC. No disastrous losses. In fact, just two teams lost conference games. Boston College lost on the road to Providence (no surprise there - BC is still terrible). And Miami really took it on the chin against Memphis. They were right there at halftime, but ended up losing by 17. Memphis is a very solid team, but Miami can't feel good about that performance.

Georgia Tech got its most solid win of the year, on the road over rival Georgia. Georgia isn't in the top half of the SEC, but considering how Georgia Tech has been playing, to beat them by 12 points has got to feel good. Virginia Tech got a much needed win over Rhode Island. The Rams have only won one game all year, but they were at home, and a tough opponent. Maryland won against Mt. St. Mary's, but only by three points. That is a bit of a head scratcher. It's starting to look like they are so reliant on Terrell Stoglin, that if he has a bad game they are toast.

There are a few interesting matchups this weekend. Here is a look ahead:

Duke vs. Washington (Saturday, 12 p.m.)
Duke is taking on Washington at Madison Square Garden, which seems to be their second home. They have played so well in the world's most famous arena. The Huskies have some talent but thus far this year haven't played as well as they are capable of.

Clemson at Arizona (Saturday, 4 p.m.)
Clemson has been a really big disappointment in my opinion, and it's not going to get any easier in this game. Arizona no longer has Derrick Williams but they will be a force in the Pac-12.

Miami at West Virginia (Saturday, 7 p.m.)
This is a game that Miami could actually steal. West Virginia is coming off a two overtime win over Kansas State. And the Mountaineers aren't the same team they have been in previous years.

Wake Forest at Seton Hall (Saturday, 8 p.m.)
It's actually conceivable that Wake could end up winning two road games against BCS conference teams in two weeks. Seton Hall is not a very good team. Wake of course isn't either but the Deacs are starting to show a few signs of life.

2011-12-05T12:26:00.000-05:00

Non-Conference Failures

As the days go on, the ACC isn't doing anything to improve its reputation. After struggling mightily in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, there were a series of frustrating losses in non-conference games this weekend. There are just too many teams right now that are not living up to ACC standards. I said in my previous post that I thought the ACC was getting four teams into the NCAA Tournament. The way it's looking now, that number might go to three.

Let's start with the best game of the weekend, UNC at Kentucky. This isn't a bad loss at all for UNC. In fact, they have to feel good about how they played. They got good contributions from players like Reggie Bullock and PJ Hairston, and had a very good chance to win at the end.

Also on Saturday, Wake came back down to earth with a home loss to Richmond. The Spiders jumped out in front early and were actually in front by 23 before Wake came back to make it a game. Boston College suffered another horrible loss, by 14 at home to Boston University. They are now 2-6 on the year and may not win three more games the whole season. Georgia Tech also had a bad loss, falling to Tulane by five. Tulane is 9-0 this season, but against an extremely soft schedule.

Sunday wasn't much better. Clemson continues to struggle in the early season, falling to rival South Carolina. South Carolina may be the worst team in the SEC. Clemson had a chance to tie with three free throws late in the game, but Tanner Smith missed one and the game was pretty much over. NC State had another late letdown. They weren't favored to win on the road against Stanford, but had the game pretty much in control and were not able to hang on. Virginia Tech also had a tough loss, at home to Kansas State. They played well in the first half and had a six point lead at halftime. But the shots wouldn't fall in the second half and Kansas State was able to put together a run and hold on.

The only ACC team to win on Sunday was Maryland, beating Notre Dame in Washington, DC. This may look like a good win, as Notre Dame was a very good team last year. But the Irish lost a lot off their team this year, and their best player, Tim Abromaitis, is out for the season. Nevertheless, this is a confidence boost for Maryland, and Terrell Stoglin, who had 31 points, continues to be the star for the Terps.

So where does that leave us? Right now Duke and Virginia are the only teams with just one loss. UNC and Miami are the only teams with two losses. You'd have to think that the damage has already been done in terms of the national consciousness. It's going to be hard for the ACC to earn more respect, especially once conference play starts. There aren't many chances for that this week, with a lack of exciting matchups. Among the best games during the week:
Memphis at Miami (Tuesday)
Georgia Tech at Georgia (Wednesday)
Virginia Tech at Rhode Island (Wednesday)
Boston College at Providence (Thursday)

2011-12-01T13:33:00.000-05:00

ACC/Big Ten Challenge Thoughts

It wasn't the best of weeks for the ACC. The Big Ten had its best ever success in the challenge, winning 8-4. Out of the four wins by the ACC, one was bottom-feeder Wake Forest. A lot of other teams were not able to rise to the challenge (no pun intended).

The most impressive win belongs to Ohio State. The Buckeyes came ready to play and thoroughly outclassed Duke. That Ohio State won was not a surprise - but the margin of victory definitely raised some eyebrows. You might not see Ohio State play that well again this year. On the other side, I don't think Duke has a lot to be worried about. They have played a very difficult schedule and have only this one loss. They do need to get more consistent play from Seth Curry, though. The backcourt can't be all Austin Rivers.

The best win for the ACC is probably Virginia beating Michigan. The Wolverines are a top 15 team that has played well so far this year. Virginia certainly has potential, and if they can get continue to get big contributions from Mike Scott they will be a force in the ACC. I think the most disappointing loss belongs to NC State. The Wolfpack have much more reason for optimism this year. Even though Indiana is much improved, though, NC State were up late in the second half only to see the Hoosiers go on a roll. The defense really failed the Wolfpack.

I have to give credit to Wake Forest. This is definitely the best win in the two year tenure of Jeff Bzdelik. I have been pretty hard on Bzdelik, but if he can get his team to finish better than 11th in the ACC this year I have to admit that he's doing a decent job.

After watching Virginia Tech's game against Minnesota last night, I wanted to say a few things about expectations. A lot of teams' fans are very concerned with the NCAA Tournament at this point in the season, thinking that one game here or there is a make-or-break game. The reality is that it's very tough to get to the Big Dance - that's part of what makes it so special. Based on how they performed this week and the perception of the league as a whole, I would guess that the ACC would get four teams in this year (just like last year). You know that Duke and Carolina will get in. Florida State, despite their early struggles, should get in. That leaves one spot for Virginia, Miami, Clemson, Virginia Tech and NC State.

It's pointless to get too hung up over one loss in November. If you make the NCAA Tournament, you will have earned it. It will likely require a 10-6 conference record. If you are a team like Virginia Tech, with a lot of young players, it's unlikely that this is the year to break the drought. So I would say to fans to just enjoy the development of the team and not waste too much energy worrying about that bubble.

2011-11-29T12:26:00.000-05:00

ACC/Big Ten Challenge Preview: Part 2

Based on my predictions, Tuesday's games don't match up well for the ACC. So will Wednesday shape up any better? Let's take a look:

Indiana at NC State
7:15 p.m., ESPN2
This is definitely a favorable matchup for the ACC. NC State has played well this year, with wins over Texas and a solid Princeton team. They will face an improved Indiana team, but one that is still trying to come back from being way down in the Big Ten. Indiana's best win is over Butler, who is not anywhere near where they were last March. I think NC State wins this one fairly easily.
Pick: NC State

Penn State at Boston College
7:15 p.m., ESPNU
Wow what a stinker. Boston College has been really really bad so far, with a 2-4 record. All four of those losses have been by double digits. Penn State's best win is a home game against South Florida. They recently lost to St. Joseph's by 18 points in a game in which they were down 22-0. You would have to be the biggest college hoops junkie in the universe to watch more than 30 seconds of this game.
Pick: Penn State

Florida State at Michigan State
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Florida State lost a big opportunity last weekend in the Bahamas. With UConn being upset by UCF, all FSU had to do to play in the championship game was beat Harvard. Instead, they lost in an ugly game, had to play UConn and lost that game too. They have a chance to get back on a good note with a road win against Michigan State. The Spartans are in a bit of a rebuilding mode, already losing to Duke and North Carolina this year. Michigan State is tough to beat at home, though.
Pick: Michigan State

Virginia Tech at Minnesota
9:15 p.m., ESPN2
The Hokies have been playing pretty solid basketball this year, with the lone loss being to top 5 Syracuse. They bounced back to beat Oklahoma State and St. Bonaventure in what was a potential trap game. Minnesota has also been playing pretty well, with solid wins over mid-majors Fairfield and Indiana State. Unfortunately, they lost their best player, Trevor Mbakwe, for the season, and lost by double digits to Dayton. This is a tough game to call - I think the fact that the young players for Virginia Tech are playing their first true road game of the year will prove to be a little too much to overcome.
Pick: Minnesota

Wake Forest at Nebraska
9:15 p.m., ESPNU
Wake got a little bit of a boost in their last game, with a win over a power conference team in Texas Tech. They needed that, after a lopsided loss against an Arizona State squad that is not at all good. Nebraska is of course a newcomer to the Big Ten. They have a good win over Southern Cal on the road, and a loss at home to Oregon. Nebraska will probably finish in the bottom third of the Big Ten, but they should have enough to beat Wake at home.
Pick: Nebraska

Wisconsin at North Carolina
9:30 p.m., ESPN
You can stop the talk of North Carolina going undefeated. They had a very surprising loss in a virtual road game against UNLV. The Tar Heels have a lot of talent, but haven't really been able to gel so far. That being said, I don't expect them to lose to Wisconsin. Bo Ryan has a solid team once again, but they haven't really been tested. Their best win so far is against BYU, who doesn't have Jimmer Fredette any more.
Pick: North Carolina

The Big Ten has won the challenge the last two years and it looks like that might continue this year. Based on my predictions, the Big Ten will win it 8-4. But you never know - an upset here or there can be a big difference. One thing is for sure: there are plenty of good games to watch the next couple days!

2011-11-28T20:20:00.000-05:00

ACC/Big Ten Challenge Preview: Part 1

The ACC/Big Ten Challenge is always one of the highlights of the basketball season. For many ACC teams, this game is their stiffest challenge and a good benchmark for how the team is progressing. This year, the challenge is a little different. Now that the Big Ten has added Nebraska, every team from the ACC can play in the event. And now that there are 12 teams, we need a good tie-breaker in case it ends up 6-6. So I'm going to make one up. I will say the conference that ends up with more road victories will win the title - it's always important to play well on the road.

So here is a look ahead at Tuesday's games:

Michigan at Virginia
7:00 p.m., ESPN2
Virginia has had one hiccup so far this year, against TCU. Other than that they have been solid, but not spectacular. They have a good chance to make a statement against a Michigan team that should make the NCAA Tournament this year. Michigan is ranked #14, with a win over Memphis and their only loss being to Duke. I think UVA is still finding its way, and I like the Wolverines in this one.
Pick: Michigan

Northwestern at Georgia Tech
7:15 p.m., ESPNU
Georgia Tech's best win so far is against VCU, which lost a lot from its Final Four team last year. They have not played since last Wednesday. They will take on Northwestern, who is 5-0 with wins against LSU and Seton Hall. There really isn't a lot of interest in this game, and you can probably flip a coin to see who wins. I'll take the team that's actually beaten LSU.
Pick: Northwestern

Illinois at Maryland
7:30 p.m., ESPN
I'm pretty sure Maryland is on ESPN just because of their name. They are not a good basketball team. The Terps are 3-2, and both of their losses have been by more than 20 points. Illinois has been quiet to start the season, going 6-0 against a whole lot of nobodies. Again, this is not a marquee game. I think the Terps win a game that might not get out of the 40s.
Pick: Maryland

Miami at Purdue
9:00 p.m., ESPN2
Now this is a better matchup. Miami is a bit of an enigma early in the season, with a loss in their only real test, an overtime game against Ole Miss. They have been getting great contributions from their two solid guards, Durand Scott and Malcolm Grant, but not much else. Purdue lost their two best players from last year but still have Robbie Hummel. Their best win is against Temple. Purdue gets the nod here because they are really tough to beat at home.
Pick: Purdue

Clemson at Iowa
9:15 p.m., ESPNU
I have been disappointed with how Clemson has started their season. They have already lost two home games, to Charleston and Coastal Carolina. They need a solid performance here in Iowa. The Hawkeyes have not been good for a while, and have already lost to Campbell at home and Creighton (by 23!). The Tigers need to win this game.
Pick: Clemson

Duke at Ohio State
9:30 p.m., ESPN
They have saved the best for last on Tuesday. Duke and Ohio State are both top 5 teams. The Blue Devils have already played a very difficult schedule and have come through unscathed. This is their third straight game against a ranked opponent, and the toughest of the three. Jared Sullinger is back for Ohio State, and is averaging almost 19 points per game. Ohio State has already beaten top 10 opponent Florida at home. They should win this one as well.
Pick: Ohio State

If my picks hold true, the ACC will have a lot of work to do in Wednesday's games. I'll be back with a preview of those tomorrow.

2011-11-22T13:51:00.000-05:00

ACC Update: 11/22

It was very difficult to watch last year as Wake Forest struggled so much to one of the worst years in ACC history. Unfortunately, that may happen again this year with Boston College. Last night, BC played at home against UMass, a team not expected to contend in the Atlantic 10. And the Eagles lost by 36 points. 36! I can't even describe in words how bad that is. This is the Atlantic Coast Conference! I know the ACC is supposed to be down again this year but man, that is really embarrassing. In this game, BC shot 31% from the field, 23% from 3, and 52% from the line. I really hope Steve Donahue can turn things around quickly.

On the positive side, NC State had a very nice win against Texas. They were down at one point by 18 points, but sparked by the disqualification of J'Covan Brown, they came all the way back. In a strange ending, CJ Leslie missed two free throws with the chance to put the game out of reach. And then Texas took a desperation 3 that an NC State player swatted away. Texas was screaming for a goaltending call, to no avail. It looks like NC State will be one of the better teams in the ACC this year.

Duke got a win as expected over Tennessee in the first round of the Maui Invitational. This sets up a very interesting re-match of last year's NCAA Tournament game between Duke and Michigan. John Beilein has really done a good job building the Wolverine program to fit his 1-3-1 defense, and they have a good shot of pulling the upset.

Another underrated game on the schedule tonight is Clemson vs. Coastal Carolina. Clemson had a very disappointing loss to Coastal Carolina over the weekend. They were down double digits in the second half before mounting a charge that fell just short. Coastal Carolina had a terrific year last year in the Big South under Coach Cliff Ellis and definitely has the firepower to beat Clemson.

In other conference news, there is some trouble brewing at Maryland. Besides the school voting to get rid of eight sports teams, after their latest loss, Coach Mark Turgeon had some strong words to say to his team. He said, among other things, "This is the biggest challenge I've ever had in coaching. It's not even close." Check out this Washington Post story on the issue:
Coach Turgeon Losing His Players?

2011-11-19T11:40:00.000-05:00

Tournament Update

A lot has gone on in the last few days - some good, some bad for the ACC teams. Here is an update on where these early season tournaments are now:

Let's start in Charleston with Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets lost their first game of the year in a pretty uninspired effort to St. Joseph's, 66-53. They were able to come back and beat VCU, last year's NCAA Tournament darling, 73-60. That sets up a fifth place game on Sunday against LSU, a team that has been an SEC doormat for the last couple years.

In Puerto Rico, Maryland had a very tough first game. They managed only 42 points against Alabama, with very little production from their starters. Alabama is a very solid team, but this was definitely a bad performance from the Terps. Fortunately for them, they were able to bounce back the next day to earn a nice win over Colorado. Colorado is a little bit of an unknown commodity, having come close to the NCAA Tournament last year. That sets up a fifth place game on Sunday against Iona, an underrated team that lost to Purdue by just one point.

The most disappointing loss for an ACC team has to be Virginia's two point defeat in the Virgin Islands yesterday to TCU. The Horned Frogs were picked to be near the bottom of the Mountain West. Former Hokie Hank Thorns came up big against Virginia, and the Cavs were only able to shoot 37.5% for the game. The other bad news for Virginia is that since Norfolk State was able to upset Drexel, they will have to play a Drexel team that is supposed to be very solid in the CAA. Virginia's third game will be against either Winthrop or Drake.

Virginia Tech took care of business in their NIT Tip-Off game against Florida International. All four top seeds advanced to Madison Square Garden next week. So the Hokies will take on Syracuse on Wednesday, followed by either Stanford or Oklahoma State.

The other game of note from yesterday was Boston College going down by 22 points to Holy Cross. This is not a good sign for a team that is expected to be quite bad this year. They need to right the ship against UMass on Monday before heading to the 76 Classic.

2011-11-15T12:22:00.001-05:00

Early-Season Tournaments

It seems like every year there is a new early-season tournament attracting several top teams. As most are taking place in the next week, here's a look at where the ACC teams are going for what are very meaningful non-conference games.

Boston College - 76 Classic
76 Classic Bracket

Boston College will head out to Anaheim next week for the 76 Classic. They aren't expected to be very good this year, but fortunately for them the field for this event isn't as good as it has been in past years. The Eagles will play St. Louis in the first game, a game they can definitely win. If they win that one, they will probably play Villanova in the second round. The Wildcats aren't as good as they have been in past years but should be able to beat BC. Potential final round opponents for BC include Oklahoma and Washington State.

Clemson - Diamond Head Classic
Diamond Head Classic Bracket

Clemson has a while to go before its tournament. The Diamond Head Classic in Hawaii isn't played until December. Their first game is against UTEP. More on that later in the season.

Duke - Maui Invitational
Maui Invitational Bracket

The Maui Invitational has the best pedigree of the early season tournaments - it almost always draws either North Carolina or Duke. This year the Blue Devils take part in a solid field. They take on Tennessee in the first round. The Vols are in a bit of a rebuilding mode after NCAA violations and the firing of Coach Bruce Pearl. Duke will then play either Michigan or Memphis. The Wolverines gave Duke all they could handle in the NCAA Tournament last year. And Memphis is a preseason top 10 team. The other side of the bracket isn't as strong, but Kansas presents a very tough challenge if Duke meets them in the final.

Florida State - Battle For Atlantis
Battle For Atlantis Bracket

Florida State is playing in a brand new tournament at the Atlantis resort in the Bahamas next week. The tournament is set up so hopefully FSU will play UConn in the final. To get there, the Noles will have to beat UMass in their first game. Then they will play either Utah or Harvard. UConn will likely coast through its side of the bracket so FSU would likely have to win two games to play the Huskies in the final.

Georgia Tech - Charleston Classic
Charleston Classic Bracket

Georgia Tech is another team that isn't expected to do much this year that has a chance to make a splash in an early-season tournament. They will take on Saint Joseph's on Thursday in the first round of the Charleston Classic. Their next game will be against either VCU or Seton Hall. The best team on the other side of the bracket is probably Northwestern.

Maryland - Puerto Rico Tip-Off
Puerto Rico Tip-Off Bracket

The Terps head to Puerto Rico this week to face a challenging field. Their first round game is against Alabama, a team that has NCAA aspirations. If they can find a way to win that game, the Terps will have another tough matchup against the winner of Wichita State-Colorado. Purdue and Temple are on the other side of the bracket. It wouldn't be a surprise if Maryland lost all three games, but 1-2 is a more likely outcome.

North Carolina - Las Vegas Invitational

For some reason it's hard to find much information for this tournament. From what I can figure out, UNC will play two games in Chapel Hill, against Mississippi Valley State and Tennessee State. They will then travel to Las Vegas next week to take on South Carolina, and then either UNLV or USC. It's hard to think that UNC will lose any of those games.

NC State - TicketCity Legends Classic

NC State is participating in a special four team event in East Rutherford, NJ this weekend. Their first game on Saturday is against a Vanderbilt team that was in the top 10 in the preseason, but already lost at home to Cleveland State. Then the Wolfpack will play either Texas or Oregon State. It's not far fetched to think NC State could win both games.

Virginia - Paradise Jam
Paradise Jam Bracket

The Cavaliers travel to the US Virgin Islands this week to take part in the Paradise Jam. This is one of the weakest tournament fields I've seen, and Virginia could win the whole thing. Their first game is against TCU, a team that has had a very poor basketball program. Then they will take on either Drexel or Norfolk State. If it shakes out like it should, UVA would take on Marquette in the final. The Golden Eagles could be a solid team this year, coming off a Sweet 16 appearance last year.

Virginia Tech - NIT Season Tip-Off
NIT Season Tip-Off Bracket

The Hokies have already started playing in the NIT Season Tip-Off. They beat Monmouth on Monday. Surprisingly, they will face Florida International instead of George Mason. FIU beat the Patriots in overtime. If the Hokies can beat FIU, then they will head to Madison Square Garden. The likely matchup in the semi-finals next week would be Syracuse. The other teams likely to advance to MSG are Stanford and Oklahoma State. Interestingly, the Hokies could end up playing Oklahoma State twice this season - they have a scheduled game in Stillwater later this year.

Wake Forest - Old Spice Classic
Old Spice Classic Bracket

Wake Forest might have a rude awakening this season with a trip to Orlando next week to face some tough opponents. They might be in a position where they are happy just winning one out of three games. The first round matchup for the Demon Deacons is Dayton, a team with a new coach that has at least made the NIT in recent years. The second round matchup would be against either Fairfield (who isn't bad) or Arizona State. The best teams on the other side of the bracket are Minnesota and Texas Tech.

Miami is not playing in an early-season tournament this year.

2011-11-12T20:08:00.000-05:00

Season Preview

Harrison Barnes

1. North Carolina

2010-2011 record: 29-8 (14-2 ACC)

Games against NCAA Tournament teams: 10
Best non-conference game: 12/3 at Kentucky

Projected Starting Five:

F - Tyler Zeller (Senior)
F - John Henson (Junior)
F - Harrison Barnes (Sophomore)
G - Dexter Strickland (Junior)
G - Kendall Marshall (Sophomore)

There isn't much up for debate: North Carolina is clearly the best team in the ACC. Roy Williams has had three core groups of players that have been outstanding since he's been in Chapel Hill. The first was Felton/McCants/May. The second was Lawson/Hansbrough/Ellington/Green. And now there's this class of players, led by Harrison Barnes.

Barnes came in with so much hype last year. It took him a while to get into his groove in the offense, and once he did he started shooting and didn't stop. I thought he shot a little too much at times, but at points he was brilliant. He is joined in the frontcourt by John Henson and Tyler Zeller, two guys who are definitely capable of putting up big numbers. Henson has to be a guy that NBA scouts are drooling over, with his long arms and high motor.

But the main guy who makes this team go is Kendall Marshall. The turning point last year came when the Tar Heels parted ways with Larry Drew, who never lived up to his potential. Marshall stepped in and was terrific. He isn't the biggest scorer, but can make shots when called upon. He is an excellent distributor and runs Carolina's fast break very well. James McAdoo is the most highly ranked freshman coming in, but will have a hard time getting playing time behind Carolina's other more experienced players.

North Carolina has a pretty solid schedule. They already started things out by beating Michigan State by double digits in that aircraft carrier game. The big matchup is a game in Rupp Arena against a Kentucky team that knocked them out of the NCAA Tournament last year.

The Tar Heels certainly have the talent to win it all for a third time under Roy Williams. They should end up with a very gaudy record, and win the ACC easily. It is really hard to find a weak link with this team. The only thing I would caution is that many people felt the same way about Duke last year, and then they had a significant injury and couldn't get it done. As talented as Barnes is, Marshall is the one guy they can't afford to get hurt. As long as he can stay healthy and in the game, this is one tough team to beat.

2011-11-11T21:23:00.000-05:00

Season Preview

Doc and Austin Rivers

2. Duke

2010-2011 record: 32-5 (13-3 ACC)

Games against NCAA Tournament teams: 13
Best non-conference game: 11/29 at Ohio State

Projected Starting Five:

F - Mason Plumlee (Senior)
F - Ryan Kelly (Junior)
G - Andre Dawkins (Junior)
G - Austin Rivers (Freshman)
G - Seth Curry (Junior)

Last year did not go quite as expected for Duke. First, they had to deal with a tough injury to super freshman Kyrie Irving. Then, they had a couple unexpected losses in the regular season. And just when they got Irving back, they had problems integrating him back into the lineup and lost to Arizona in the Sweet 16. Now the Blue Devils will go into this season overshadowed by their hated rivals, UNC.

Duke certainly has the pieces to once again be an elite team. They lose Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith, plus Irving to the NBA draft. They will rely a lot more on the Plumlees this year, who haven't really fulfilled their full potential (they combined for about 12 points per game last year). Ryan Kelly is one player who might have a breakout year. He really improved as the year went on, becoming a threat from the perimeter.

The backcourt has some more question marks. Seth Curry definitely has a lot of talent, but at times he seemed lost among the other talented Duke players last year. Curry scored just 11 points in 3 games in the NCAA Tournament. He will move over to play the point. Andre Dawkins seemed to peak early in the year, and tapered off in ACC play, only three times in ACC games hitting double figures. The other guard is one of the most coveted recruits in the country: Austin Rivers. The son of Boston Celtics Coach Doc Rivers, Austin has the reputation of a big time scorer.

I expect Duke to get their bigs involved much more than in years past. They will have a size advantage on most teams in the conference. The Plumlees will need to be rebounding machines, to get offensives boards for kick-out 3s for Dawkins or Curry. Curry is not their traditional point guard who has a lot of speed, so expect them to not get out in transition as much as a team like North Carolina.

You have to love the way Duke schedules. They have to have one of the toughest non-conference schedules in the country this year. Duke will play Michigan State, Tennessee, Michigan or Memphis (in Maui), Ohio State, Washington, Temple and St. Johns this year. And they could face Kansas in the Maui final. That will get this team battle tested and ready for conference play. There is no reason to think that they will do any worse than 12-4 in the ACC this year (and 2 of those losses might be to UNC).

2011-11-10T20:02:00.000-05:00

Season Preview

Bernard James

3. Florida State

2010-2011 record: 23-11 (11-5 ACC)

Games against NCAA Tournament teams: 8
Best non-conference game: 11/30 at Michigan State

Projected Starting Five:

F - Bernard James (Senior)
F - Okaro White (Sophomore)
G - Deividas Dulkys (Senior)
G - Michael Snaer (Junior)
G - Jeff Peterson (Senior)

It has been interesting to trace the progression of Florida State over the years. For years they were the most predictable team in the ACC: they would play very well at home, beat Duke or UNC each year, and finish somewhere around 8-8 in the conference, just missing out on the NCAA Tournament (about where Virginia Tech is now). Then they took a step up, making the NCAA Tournament in back-to-back years but failing to win a game. Last year the Seminoles took the next big step, making it to the Sweet 16. I think they have the ability to duplicate that success.

When you are talking about Florida State and a Leonard Hamilton coached team you think of defense. The Seminoles will once again have the length to cause people fits. They do lose Chris Singleton, who was definitely their best player, although they played pretty well without him when he was hurt last year. I think their key player this year is Bernard James. James is 26 years old and coming off a pretty good year. He will be the main force down low. In the perimeter, Michael Snaer will be key. Snaer averaged exactly 8.8 points per game both of his first two years, but improved his free throw and three point percentage last year. The point guard spot will be manned by an interesting player. Jeff Peterson played at Iowa, then Arkansas, then transferred to Florida State. His best season was 2008-2009, where he averaged double figures for the Hawkeyes.

Florida State's schedule is somewhat unimpressive. They will have two tough matchups against rival Florida and Michigan State, but should be able to win their other non-conference games. They have a very tough start to the ACC season, though. Their first three games are at Clemson, at Virginia Tech, and home against UNC. If they can get through that, the second half of the conference schedule is much more forgiving. So I expect them to be riding some nice momentum going into March.

2011-11-09T20:43:00.000-05:00

Season Preview

Brad Brownell

4. Clemson

2010-2011 record: 22-12 (9-7 ACC)

Games against NCAA Tournament teams: 6
Best non-conference game: 12/10 at Arizona

Projected Starting Five:

F - Devin Booker (Junior)
F - Milton Jennings (Junior)
G - Tanner Smith (Senior)
G - T.J. Sapp (Freshman)
G - Andre Young (Senior)

The team that I was probably most surprised about when the ACC media preseason rankings came out was Clemson. Coming off an NCAA Tournament berth, with most of their players back, Clemson was picked 7th. I'm a believer in Brad Brownell and the Tigers, and think they are in for a good year. I got the chance to see Clemson in person in the ACC Tournament last year, and was very impressed at how they competed despite not having the same level of talent as North Carolina. Coach Brownell implemented his system, a big change from the pressing style of Oliver Purnell, and made it work. The team peaked at just the right time.

So what will this year's team look like? Expect a heavy dose of Devin Booker, who isn't the same player his brother Trevor was, but can fill up the stat sheet. I expect Booker to blossom into a double figure scorer. Milton Jennings has shown flashes of talent, and needs to show some consistency. In the backcourt, Andre Young is the go-to guy. He will get his points. I'm sure Clemson fans want to see more from Tanner Smith this year. His points per game went down last year, and he looked to be lost in the flow of the game at times.

Clemson has the opportunity to get off to one of their usual good starts. They don't have a lot in the non-conference, outside of a trip to Arizona. If the draw works out well, they could face some tough opponents in the Diamond Head Classic. They have a great opportunity with home games early against Florida State and Duke to make a statement to the rest of the league.

I thought Clemson would take a step down once Oliver Purnell left, but they overachieved last year. And I think with a second year under his belt, Coach Brownell will get the most out of his players and go the NCAA Tournament again this year.

2011-11-08T22:19:00.000-05:00

Season Preview

Mike Scott

5. Virginia

2010-2011 record: 16-15 (7-9 ACC)

Games against NCAA Tournament teams: 9
Best non-conference game: 12/18 at Oregon

Projected Starting Five:

C - Assane Sene (Senior)
F - Mike Scott (Senior)
F - Joe Harris (Sophomore)
G - Sammy Zeglinski (Senior)
G - Jontel Evans (Sophomore)

There has been a lot of negativity around the UVA basketball program for so long that I think not many people realized that the Cavaliers ended up with a 7-9 record in the conference last year. That included winning four out of their last five conference games. And now there is a lot of optimism, with a majority of the team coming back this year.

Of course the key is forward Mike Scott. Scott was primed to have a monster year last year, but an injury early in the season forced him to sit the rest of the way. He was granted a medical redshirt and will be back this season. If he can be the double-double man that he has shown the promise he can be, that will be huge for this team.

The rest of the parts aren't bad. Last year's freshman class included some promising players, including Joe Harris, who averaged 10.4 points per game, and K.T. Harrell, who averaged 8 points per game. Jontel Evans isn't a big scorer but is a solid point guard for Coach Tony Bennett's offense.

The non-conference schedule sets up well for success. UVA doesn't have to hit the road until December 18th, when they have a date with Oregon. A road game later on against LSU is a chance to win against a struggling SEC program.

I think Coach Bennett has this team in a good spot. They are so frustrating to play against, because they slow the tempo down and force you to play their game. Here's why I don't think their ceiling is that high: their offense is structured to run the clock down and shoot a fair amount of outside shots. If they are shooting the ball well, they win games. But if they aren't making their 3s, they could put up an ugly offensive number in the 30s or 40s. I think UVA is bound to have some of those games, which could keep them from going 10-6 in the conference. They have a decent shot of making the NCAAs, though.

2011-11-07T20:47:00.000-05:00

Season Preview

C.J. Leslie

6. NC State

2010-2011 record: 15-16 (5-11 ACC)

Games against NCAA Tournament teams: 10
Best non-conference game: 11/19 vs. Vanderbilt (in East Rutherford, NJ)

Projected Starting Five:

F - Richard Howell (Junior)
F - C.J. Leslie (Sophomore)
F - Scott Wood (Junior)
G - C.J. Williams (Senior)
G - Lorenzo Brown (Sophomore)

You probably heard the collective sigh of relief coming from NC State fans this spring as the school made a change at head coach. Sidney Lowe was an alum and tried his best, but just didn't cut it as the coach of the Wolfpack. He was able to recruit decent players, but didn't get them motivated to play at their best, and had disappointing year after disappointing year. Now Mark Gottfried is the head man at NC State, a coach who did some good things at Alabama. And he inherits some talent.

Perhaps no one was a better example of not playing to his potential than C.J. Leslie. He was touted as one of the best freshman in the ACC last year, but seemed to have trouble with focus at times. He ended up scoring 11 points per game, but shot 25% from 3-point land and 54% from the line. Leslie will have to be the main focus for the Wolfpack this year, with Tracy Smith gone.

Besides Leslie, there are other players with potential. I have always liked Richard Howell, who has played in a supporting role but will be able to step up into the starting lineup. And many people are high on Lorenzo Brown, who will hopefully provide some stability at a point guard spot that Javier Gonzalez did not provide the last few years. Scott Wood is a very capable shooter that can light you up very quickly.

NC State has some tests on their schedule. An early season game against Princeton is intriguing. They also face two top-10 teams in Vanderbilt and Syracuse between now and Christmas. I think NC State has the talent to make the NCAA Tournament. If Coach Gottfried can find a lineup combination that he likes and can get the most out of players like Leslie, the other teams in the ACC have enough question marks that they can finish in the top half of the conference. That will be a welcome change in Raleigh.

2011-11-06T21:08:00.000-05:00

Season Preview

Erick Green

7. Virginia Tech

2010-2011 record: 22-12 (9-7 ACC)

Games against NCAA Tournament teams: 9
Best non-conference game: 12/4 vs. Kansas State

Projected Starting Five:

F - Cadarian Raines (Sophomore)
F - Victor Davila (Senior)
F - Dorian Finney-Smith (Freshman)
G - Dorenzo Hudson (Senior)
G - Erick Green (Junior)

You can divide the Seth Greenberg regime at Virginia Tech into two different eras. The first is the Dowdell/Gordon/Collins era. The second is the Delaney/Allen era. Take a look at how each four-year class has done:

Dowdell/Gordon/Collins: 67-56 (29-35 in the ACC)
1 NCAA berth, 1 NIT berth

Delaney/Allen: 87-50 (35-29 in the ACC)
4 NIT berths

This is the start of era #3, with the current freshman class. The Hokies have the chance to get off to a fresh start, putting behind them the disappointment of not making the NCAA Tournament the last couple years. Unfortunately, the year is already getting off to a bad start. J.T. Thompson suffered a season-ending injury in practice this week, the second straight year he will be out. And Erick Green has an Achilles injury that may sideline him for a couple weeks.

Green is the key player for Virginia Tech this year. He really stepped up his game in the second half of last year, and will be the emotional leader. He will be paired in the backcourt with Dorenzo Hudson. Hudson had a breakout year two seasons ago, but had a lingering injury that made him ineffective when he played last year. For the Hokies to be successful, Hudson has to recapture his offense from two seasons ago.

The other big key is Cadarian Raines. Raines has had injury problems since he got to Blacksburg, and really needs to stay healthy. He has to provide good minutes with Thompson out. I do expect the freshmen to provide an impact - they might not be great right away, but by the end of the year they will be counted on for a lot.

So what can we expect from this team? Expect some growing pains at first, especially with a difficult early season schedule. The likely home game against George Mason will be huge - if the Hokies can win that one, they will have a couple great tests at Madison Square Garden. I do expect the freshmen to gain confidence as the year goes on and the Hokies could roll to a high finish in the conference. But if any more injuries strike (I had them at 6 before the Thompson injury) and their depth goes away again, it could be a long year.

2011-11-05T17:56:00.000-04:00

Season Preview

Jim Larranaga

8. Miami

2010-2011 record: 21-15 (6-10 ACC)

Games against NCAA Tournament teams: 9
Best non-conference game: 12/6 vs. Memphis

Projected Starting Five:

C - Kenny Kadji (Sophomore)
F - DeQuan Jones (Senior)
G - Garrius Adams (Junior)
G - Durand Scott (Junior)
G - Malcolm Grant (Senior)

Having gone to a lot of George Mason games over the years, I am very familiar with Jim Larranaga. And I would have never predicted that his next coaching job would be at Miami, a school that hasn't exactly been a model for great behavior. So it will be very interesting to see what kind of fit Larranaga is in this program. Frank Haith started out as a very solid coach at Miami, but over the last few years his teams consistently underachieved. So I think the fan base let out a sigh of relief when he decided to bolt for Missouri.

What Coach Larranaga inherits is a bit of a team in flux. The pieces are there to be an NCAA Tournament caliber team. He has two very solid guards in Durand Scott and Malcolm Grant, who were the two leading scorers last year. Beyond that there are some question marks. Reggie Johnson has a lot of potential, but he will be on the bench at the start of the season with an injury. Julian Gamble is out for the season with an injury. And DeQuan Jones is in the middle of a battle with an NCAA, who may rule him ineligible. Take those guys away and there are a lot of questions in the frontcourt. The good news is the Hurricanes picked up Kenny Kadji, a transfer from Florida who didn't play much for the Gators but could pick up the slack down low.

I give Miami credit - a lot of years they play a very soft early season schedule, but they have put together a challenging slate. The Canes will play Memphis, Purdue, West Virginia and Ole Miss in the first month of the season. Look for them to have more of a defensive identity than they did under Coach Haith. A lot of times near the end of games Miami would go into streetball mode, trying to play one-on-one and throwing up wild shots. Larranaga will bring more discipline.

This team was pretty close to being good last year. They had a stretch of four straight ACC games that they lost by four points or less. The only two conference games they lost by double digits were both to Duke. I think it will take a little while for Larranaga to get acclimated to his new team, especially with the injuries. So Miami will struggle more than the experts predict (ACC media picked them 5th). But they have a good coach who should do good things in the long run.

2011-11-04T21:28:00.000-04:00

Season Preview

The Thrillerdome

9. Georgia Tech

2010-2011 record: 13-18 (5-11 ACC)

Games against NCAA Tournament teams: 6
Best non-conference game: 12/7 at Georgia

Projected Starting Five:

C - Daniel Miller (Sophomore)
F - Kammeon Holsey (Sophomore)
G - Glen Rice, Jr. (Junior)
G - Jason Morris (Sophomore)
G - Mfon Udofia (Junior)

It was only a matter of time before Paul Hewitt was no longer the coach at Georgia Tech. Hewitt could recruit, and brought a lot of talented guys to Atlanta, but he was not a good in-game coach. His teams were some of the sloppiest you'll see, with so many turnovers. So it was time to make a change. And that means Brian Gregory comes over from Dayton, where he had a decent impact on that program.

Gregory's biggest challenge is finding a replacement for Iman Shumpert. Shumpert was one of the best players in the league last year, finishing with 17.3 points per game, and leading the team in rebounds, assists and steals. There is no one on the current Georgia Tech roster who will be able to fill that void. What they do have is a few decent shooters, led by Glen Rice, Jr., who was the second-leading scorer last year. I was high on Mfon Udofia after his freshman year, but it seems that he regressed last year. He will have to step up his game for this team to be successful.

The team will miss Brian Oliver, who was a spark before he got hurt last year. He ended up transferring to Seton Hall. Like last year, the team has very little in the frontcourt. Kammeon Holsey and Daniel Miller, the presumed starters, combined for about eight points per game last year. Coach Gregory has already said that he will likely use four guards on the court at the same time, but that will prove very difficult against teams like North Carolina and Florida State.

It's definitely going to be a strange year for the Yellow Jackets. Besides a new coach, the team has no real home, with Alexander Memorial Coliseum (aka the Thrillerdome) undergoing renovations. They will split their games this year between the Atlanta Hawks' home and Gwinett Arena. That will make it very difficult to have a true home court advantage. Georgia Tech does have a pretty easy schedule, with non-conference highlights being games against SEC teams Georgia and Alabama. They also get Duke and Carolina only once, and play Boston College and Wake twice each. That schedule is the main reason why I put them as high as #9.

2011-11-03T19:06:00.000-04:00

Season Preview

Gary Williams - Retired

10. Maryland

2010-2011 record: 19-14 (7-9 ACC)

Games against NCAA Tournament teams: 9
Best non-conference game: 12/4 vs. Notre Dame (in Washington, DC)

Projected Starting Five:

C - Berend Weijs (Senior)
F - James Padgett (Junior)
G - Sean Mosley (Senior)
G - Terrell Stoglin (Sophomore)
G - Nick Faust (Freshman)

It feels weird to pick Maryland to finish so low in the ACC. I can't remember the last time they were in the bottom fourth of the league. And that is due to two big factors. First, the loss of Coach Gary Williams. Williams endured his share of criticism in recent years, but the fact remains that he was a great in-game coach. His recruiting tapered off a bit, but he almost always over-achieved with the kids that he had. And his retirement definitely came as a surprise. The second reason: the early departure of Jordan Williams. He was a double-double machine last year and was clearly Maryland's best player. Williams finished with 16.9 points per game and 11.8 rebounds per game.

So where does that leave the Terps? They brought in Mark Turgeon, who is a very solid coach. He left Wichita State and Texas A&M in better places than when he got there, making the NCAA Tournament every year he was coach of the Aggies. Turgeon inherits some talented players, including Terrell Stoglin, who had a good freshman year and was the team's second-leading scorer. The starting lineup looks a little different for the beginning of the year than it will when we get to 2012. Pe'Shon Howard, who was a star at times last year, suffered a preseason injury and will miss the first two months of the season. And Alex Len, a freshman from the Ukraine, must sit out the first 10 games. Len is being touted as a very solid player and how he performs after the suspension will go a long way to determining what kind of year it is for the Terps.

As it is, the start of the season will probably bring some growing pains. The frontcourt is very thin and short on talent, although Terps fans are high on the promise of James Padgett. Maryland usually plays a pretty challenging early season schedule, and this season is no exception. They will have to face Alabama, Illinois and Notre Dame without Len and Howard. The ACC schedule is no less forgiving - the Terps have to play two games each against North Carolina and Duke, and only get doormats Boston College and Wake Forest once.

This team will be a work in progress. It will be up to Turgeon to instill his style on this team. There probably will be less running up and down the court and more halfcourt sets. They have a chance to be in the middle of the pack in the ACC if Len and freshman Nick Faust turn out to be solid players. If not, it will probably be a long year in College Park.

2011-11-02T20:06:00.000-04:00

Season Preview

Steve Donahue

11. Boston College

2010-2011 record: 21-13 (9-7 ACC)

Games against NCAA Tournament teams: 6
Best non-conference game: 11/30 vs. Penn State

Projected Starting Five:

C - Kyle Caudill (Freshman)
F - Ryan Anderson (Freshman)
G - Danny Rubin (Sophomore)
G - Matt Humphrey (Junior)
G - Gabe Moton (Sophomore)

Steve Donahue arrived at Boston College last year with fairly low expectations, and I think did a really solid job. The team started off playing very well in the Old Spice Classic, and continued that momentum into the ACC season. They finished with a 9-7 conference record, and I think should have gotten into the NCAA Tournament. Unfortunately for BC fans, last year is in the past. And Donahue will have a whole new challenge this year.

Remember the year after Carolina won the national title the last time? They lost almost their entire team. The same thing happened this offseason with BC, except they don't have the talent of Carolina's backup players on their roster to pick up the slack. It is a major rebuilding year coming up for BC. The top 5 scorers from last year's team are all gone. The big loss, of course, is Reggie Jackson, a do-it-all point guard who decided to leave early for the NBA. That leaves a lot of players you've never heard of.

So who is going to step up for Boston College this year? The leader will probably be Matt Humphrey, a transfer from Oregon. Humphrey only started seven games in his two years with the Ducks. The two returning players who will start are Danny Rubin and Gabe Moton, who combined to average 6.7 points per game last year. The team brings in an astonishing nine freshmen, who will have to have an impact right away. The one who will probably do the most is Ryan Anderson, who comes across country from California.

What Donahue will need to do is find people who at least can run his system. If you saw his teams at Cornell, they had a pretty heavy emphasis on shooting the 3. If he can find some outside shooters, he can have success. Just not this season. The ACC media picked Boston College to finish last. I put them above Wake Forest because I have more faith in Donahue than Jeff Bzdelik. He will get them on the right track. BC fans will just have to be patient and maybe go to hockey games this year.

2011-11-01T19:57:00.001-04:00

Season Preview

Jeff Bzdelik

12. Wake Forest

2010-2011 record: 8-24 (1-15 ACC)

Games against NCAA Tournament teams: 8
Best non-conference game: 12/3 vs. Richmond

Projected Starting Five:

C - Ty Walker (Senior)
F - Travis McKie (Sophomore)
F - Nikita Mescheriakov (Senior)
G - C.J. Harris (Junior)
G - Tony Chennault (Sophomore)

What can you say about Wake Forest last year? They were very difficult to watch, maybe the worst team ever fielded in the history of the ACC. Jeff Bzdelik came in as coach, and inherited a team with very little talent. What's worse is that the team never seemed to establish an identity on the court. They played about as undisciplined as I've seen, chucking up shots that were way off most of the time, and never developing a game rhythm. The lone bright spot on the team was freshman Travis McKie, who led the team in scoring and rebounding.

It's hard to imagine much changing this year. The good news is McKie is back, along with solid guard C.J. Harris and promising point guard Tony Chennault, who got hurt midway through last year. The bad news is that offseason turmoil continued, and led to the departure of Ari Stewart and J.T. Terrell (Terrell was the second-leading scorer last year).

The schedule sets up decently well for some wins. Wake doesn't really have a whole lot of challenging non-conference games, and they only have to play North Carolina and Florida State once. But I just can't believe that this team is going to be even marginally better than it was last year. The talent just isn't there. I haven't seen anything from Bzdelik to suggest that he's a good coach, and he is losing the grip on his program. Lawrence Joel used to be one of the best home arenas in the ACC, and it was mostly empty last year. I have a hard time seeing more than three conference wins for Wake, and that's with a down ACC.

2011-10-21T20:40:00.000-04:00

Season Primer

It's getting to be close to late October, and that means the start of the basketball season isn't far away. So what's been going on and what can we expect to see on the court this year? Here are a few things to look out for:

What's New:

-Expansion

The big topic over the last month or so has been expansion. It looks like we are moving more and more toward superconferences (which, for the record, I hate). For the ACC, that means the addition of Syracuse and Pittsburgh. There will almost certainly be more to come. The Orange and Panthers won't be in the ACC this season, but there certainly will be plenty of talk about expansion and what the future of the ACC will look like for the months to come. Across the college basketball landscape, you will see some changes this year, with the Pac 10 expanding to include Colorado and Utah, and the Big Ten expanding to include Nebraska.

-Coaches

There has been a ton of coach turnover in the ACC over the past two years. Last year we saw new head coaches at Boston College, Clemson and Wake Forest. This year we have some more. Mark Turgeon takes over for legend Gary Williams at Maryland, the first time someone other than Gary will be on the sidelines for the Terps since the 80s. Mark Gottfried is the new head man at NC State, looking to restore the team to at least what it was under Herb Sendek.
Georgia Tech has a new head coach in Brian Gregory, coming over from Dayton. The Jackets have the added obstacle of splitting their time between two arenas while their home is renovated. And Miami will be looking to grow under Jim Larranaga, who did wonders at George Mason.

-Departing Players

A lot of terrific players graduated or left for the NBA. Among them: Kyle Singler, Nolan Smith, Kyrie Irving, Tracy Smith, Malcolm Delaney, Jeff Allen, Jordan Williams, Chris Singleton and Reggie Jackson. Those are players that are tough to replace. However, there are some players that chose to remain in school (most of them are at UNC), and should be stars to watch this coming year.

Preseason Thoughts

There has been a lot of chatter recently about how the ACC has lost some of its luster in recent years and needed a boost with Pitt and Syracuse. The conference has had some down years, sure, but has a chance to prove itself. There are two ways you can earn respect as a league: win your non-conference games and win in the NCAA Tournament. It will be up to the teams not named Duke and Carolina to prove that they belong as upper echelon teams in college basketball. Whether that can happen this year with so much coaching turnover remains to be seen. But I am looking forward to another season.

Preseason Poll

ACC media week was earlier this week, and here's how the pundits see this season shaping out:

1. UNC
2. Duke
3. Florida State
4. Virginia
5. Miami
6. Virginia Tech
7. Clemson
8. NC State
9. Maryland
10. Georgia Tech
11. Wake Forest
12. Boston College

I'll have my list as the next couple weeks go on, with a breakdown of each team.

2011-05-28T12:05:00.000-04:00

Season in Review

Wake Forest
8-24 (1-15 ACC)

Finally, we get to Wake Forest. It's hard to sugarcoat this: Wake had one of the worst seasons in ACC history. It was just a dismal year, right from the start. The most telling statistic for Wake's year I think is this: there were only 2 conference games in which Wake didn't lose by double digits. That is just awful. Wake didn't have the talent or competitiveness to stay in ballgames.

The year began with a 10 point loss at home to Stetson. It didn't get any better from there. The non-conference continued with losses to VCU, Winthrop, UNC Wilmington, Xavier, Presbyterian, Richmond and Gonzaga. When they started ACC play the Deacons were 7-8. They only won one game the rest of the season, a 5 point home win over UVA. Even against bad teams in the conference Wake was not competitive. In their two games against Georgia Tech, they lost by a combined 61 points!

Wake was fairly balanced scoring-wise. Their leading scorer, freshman Travis McKie, had 13 points per game. They had a hard time settling on a rotation - 9 players averaged at least 14 minutes a game, and no one played more than 32 minutes a game. This team had a combination of a lot of bad shooters, poor rebounding, and lack of effort on defense. While it's hard to hang a coach out after one year, Jeff Bzdelik did nothing to show that he will have any success at all.

Biggest Win:
76-71 vs. UVA on 1/29

There isn't much to choose from here. UVA was struggling at the time and Wake caught them at the right moment. They finished well down the stretch, overcoming a 10 point deficit in the second half. It was one of the few times this year that Wake played well as a team.

Worst Loss:
Too many to pick one

Here are some great candidates: that opening loss to a Stetson team that went 8-23. How about a 9 point home loss to a Winthrop team that went 13-17? Or a home loss to a Presbyterian team that went 13-18? This is a team that lost at home by 26 points to Georgia Tech. They lost at home to NC State by 25 points. Way too many embarrassing losses to pick just one.

Postseason Play:

The postseason was mercifully short for Wake Forest. They came into the NCAA Tournament as a 12 seed, showed very little life in their first round game against Boston College, and lost by 14.

Looking Ahead:

The good news for Wake is that their roster remains fairly intact from last year. Gary Clark is the only senior of significance that leaves. They do have some talented young players, like McKie. But how good is it when a roster returns that only won 8 games? Coach Bzdelik is really going to have to show some improvement next year or he's going to be on a very short leash. It's hard to imagine they will be able to come even close to a .500 record in the conference next year.

2011-05-22T16:20:00.000-04:00

Season in Review

Virginia Tech
22-12 (9-7 ACC)

I think there are two ways you can look at Virginia Tech's season. One is that the Hokies were predicted in the Top 25 this year, supposed to make the tournament, and didn't. Another is that the team had to deal with several significant injuries but managed to battle back and have a pretty decent season. Regardless, the fact is that the Hokies again had a year where they played pretty well but fell just short of the Big Dance.

What happened in the first month of the season went a long way to determining the rest of the year. The team struggled out of the gates, losing games they really needed to win, especially back-to-back home games against Purdue and UVA. They did manage to find their rhythm in late December, with a stretch where they won 9 out of 10. The only loss in that stretch was a game at Chapel Hill that they really should have won.

The season was highlighted by a win over then #1 Duke in Blacksburg. Unfortunately, they followed that up with two stinkers against Boston College and Clemson, two fellow bubble teams. The Hokies played well in the ACC Tournament, surviving a crazy game against Florida State, but that wasn't enough. The season ended once again in the NIT.

Obviously the main problem the team had all season was the lack of depth. They were routinely only playing 6 guys, and if anyone got into foul trouble that was a big problem. Players like Erick Green and Victor Davila were able to step up and really help this team out, but they were doing it with absolutely no bench. The team's two stars, Malcolm Delaney and Jeff Allen, had fine seasons, and were leaned on time and again to produce big numbers.

Biggest Win:
64-60 vs. Duke on 2/26

This was an easy choice. Virginia Tech has had a decent history against Duke, and they really played at a very high level in this game. They knew it was an important game, and came out with a lot of energy. There was a lot of back and forth in this one but in the end the Hokies made plays down the stretch and Duke didn't.

Worst Loss:
57-54 vs. UVA on 12/5

I think that this is really the defining loss for the season and the biggest detriment for the NCAA hopes. Coming off a tough loss in overtime against Purdue, the Hokies were completely flat in the first half and let UVA get out to a big lead. They were never able to get over the hump and ended up losing by 3. This was the first of two losses to UVA this season.

Postseason Play:

The Hokies won two games in the ACC Tournament for the first time, coasting to an easy win over Georgia Tech before gutting out somewhat of a miracle against Florida State. It looked like Tech had lost, only to see a final basket negated on review. Playing with a limited bench, they predictably lost in the semis to Duke in a game that wasn't very close. There were high hopes for the NIT despite the sting of the NCAA snub, but it wasn't meant to be. The Hokies beat Bethune-Cookman easily, but lost in the second round to Wichita State in a game that was very hotly contested.

Looking Ahead:

It's hard to predict what the next step is for the Hokies. On the one hand, they do lose a lot. Delaney, Allen and Terrell Bell all graduate, taking with them about 39 points per game. Manny Atkins this week decided to transfer to Georgia State, leaving them without another potential starter. On the other hand, Dorenzo Hudson and J.T. Thompson are expected back from injury and both should be solid contributors. The team is also bringing in a highly regarded recruiting class with some players that could start right away. In a year when it will most likely be UNC, then Duke, then everyone else, Tech could fight for that third spot.

2011-05-19T15:42:00.000-04:00

Season in Review

Virginia
16-15 (7-9 ACC)

It's easy to be pessimistic about the UVA basketball team, given the recent lack of success and the fact that they only finished one game above .500 this year. I would argue that things are definitely looking up in Charlottesville, with a coach who knows what he's doing, and a strong finish to the season.

The first half of the season was pretty polarizing. UVA had some games where they really played well, including back-to-back road wins at Minnesota and Virginia Tech. They also lost by 43 points to Washington, and lost back-to-back home games to Seattle and Iowa State. Part of the problem was the fact that their best player, Mike Scott, was hurt. Scott only played 10 games.

The start to conference play wasn't promising. UVA started out 3-8, with some close tough losses. Once the team started to gel with its younger players, they started playing better, winning 4 of the last 5 ACC games, including two road wins.

The thing about playing UVA is you know that they are going to play strong defense. Tony Bennett's teams can really shut you down and make you look bad on offense. The games can look ugly, but they are effective (see the 49-47 win over Clemson as an example). If Virginia makes their 3 pointers, they are tough to beat. Once Scott got hurt, it became a leader by committee. It really wasn't one guy producing all the scoring for the team. Mustapha Farrakhan had his best year by far, but when he wasn't scoring someone like Joe Harris or K.T. Harrell would pick up the slack.

Biggest Win:
87-79 at Minnesota on 11/29

This was definitely a surprising win for UVA over a Minnesota team that at the time was ranked 15 in the nation. The Cavaliers used a very strong second half performance and a double-double from Scott to earn a relatively easy win. This, coupled with their road win against Virginia Tech in their next game, was their best stretch of the season.

Worst Loss:
59-53 vs. Seattle on 12/22

If the two game stretch in November was the best UVA played this year, the late part of December was the worst. After scratching out a last second win over Norfolk State, UVA lost this game to an independent Seattle team that went 11-20 this year. Seattle's only other game against an ACC team was a 29 point loss to Maryland.

Postseason Play:

The postseason was about as crushing as one team could go through. UVA was in control of their first round ACC Tournament game against Miami, up by 10 points in the last 40 seconds. Then in a comedy of errors fashion they blew the lead away, losing in overtime. It was an abrupt and shocking end to the season.

Looking Ahead:

The big news in the off-season is the fact that Scott was granted a medical redshirt and will be able to play next year. When he played, Scott averaged a double-double and is easily the team's best player. Beyond him, they have a solid group of young players, led by Harris and point guard Jontell Evans. The team loses Farrakhan and Will Sherrill, but returns a good group of players that seem to have bought into Coach Bennett's system.

2011-05-16T12:02:00.000-04:00

Season in Review

N.C. State
15-16 (5-11 ACC)

It was another lost year in Raleigh, as the Wolfpack once again underachieved and seemed to just be playing out the string the second half of the year. As a result, the team is starting fresh, as Sidney Lowe finally got the boot.

State had reasonably high expectations going into the year, with a talented class of freshmen and some good returning players. They never really got any momentum, though. The best non-conference win that the Wolfpack had was probably a 13 point neutral site win over George Mason, although Mason was struggling at the time. They lost their ACC/Big 10 Challenge game by 39 points at Wisconsin.

In conference play, it didn't get much better. NC State won only 5 games, which included 2 wins against Wake Forest. Wake was the only team they beat on the road. 8 of their 11 ACC losses were by double digits. It was just a rough year all around.

The Wolfpack were led by Tracy Smith, who had a solid year, but still underperformed at 14 points per game. CJ Leslie was very highly touted, but struggled much of the early part of the year. Ryan Harrow was another solid freshman, but he was injured in the middle point of the ACC season, and Javier Gonzalez just didn't cut it at point guard in his absence. Besides Scott Wood, the team had very few 3 point threats. Take a look at some of these 3 point percentages:

CJ Leslie - 25%
Ryan Harrow - 22%
Lorenzo Brown - 30%
Javier Gonzalez - 29%

Biggest Win:
69-61 vs. Clemson on 2/17

The only conference win NC State had against a team that made the NCAA Tournament was this one over Clemson. In their previous game against Clemson, they had blown a huge first half lead, so it must have felt good to get some payback. This was also the second game of their only two game win streak in ACC play.

Worst Loss:
87-48 at Wisconsin on 12/1

NC State didn't have any embarrassing losses to really bad teams on their schedule, so I picked this 39 point defeat. At one point State was down 52-21. They finished the game shooting 31% and letting Wisconsin shoot 50%. That is not a formula for success.

Postseason Play:

There isn't much to say about NC State's postseason except that it was short. They played Maryland in the first round of the ACC Tournament and lost by 8. Maryland controlled the game, leading the whole time, and put State out of its misery.

Looking Ahead:

Sidney Lowe is out and Mark Gottfried is in at NC State. It was well known that State chased some big names, including Shaka Smart of VCU, but struck out. Gottfried's hire also came with some controversial comments back and forth between Athletic Director Debbie Yow and Gary Williams. All that being said, Gottfried isn't a bad coach. He might not be the perfect fit for the NC State job, but he is definitely an upgrade over Lowe.

Gottfried does inherit some talent. Leslie is staying in school, and should be an improved player in his sophomore year. Richard Howell can be a capable inside scorer, and Wood should provide some outside scoring. They do lose a fair amount off this year's team, though: Smith is graduating, along with Gonzalez. Harrow decided to transfer, which will leave a definite hole in the backcourt. If State can find a point guard, they can fight their way back into contention.

2011-05-12T11:51:00.000-04:00

Season in Review

North Carolina
29-8 (14-2 ACC)

Tar Heel fans have to be pretty happy about what happened this past season. After a nightmare of a season where they ended up in the NIT, the Heels ended up with an ACC regular season title and a berth in the Elite 8. They showed some rust in the beginning of the season with a lot of new players, but really came together by the end of the season.

You can divide North Carolina's season into two parts. The first would be the Larry Drew team. This is the team that struggled to early losses against Minnesota, Vanderbilt and Illinois. The second is the Kendall Marshall team. After Drew left the program, the team significantly improved. From December 21 to March 5, UNC went 17-2. That is an incredible run for a team even in a relatively weak ACC. Carolina made it to the final of the ACC Tournament despite struggling through much of their first two games, but got blown out by rival Duke. In the NCAA Tournament, they played great at times and poorly in others, eventually losing to Kentucky and missing out on a Final Four bid.

The funny thing is I felt like despite all the success, Carolina still didn't play up to potential. Harrison Barnes is a great talent but can tend to get selfish during games, taking wild shots. He no doubt hit a lot of clutch shots, but I would like to see him distribute more. Similarly, John Henson has a ton of potential and is a big force on the inside. But I saw him make way too many plays where he tried to drive all the way to the basket from the 3 point line with no success. That being said, Marshall was the real catalyst for this team, and could have a huge impact next year.

Biggest Win:
81-67 vs. Duke on 3/5

Carolina was very motivated to beat their hated rival, especially after blowing a big lead in Cameron during the first game. They played one of their best games of the year here, making Duke look slow and unathletic. This was big for their confidence, although they didn't play up to this level again the rest of the season.

Worst Loss:
78-58 at Georgia Tech on 1/16

Carolina came into this game having not lost in a month and just laid an egg. Losing at Georgia Tech is bad enough, but to lose by 20 is really inexcusable. The good thing is this was just a blip on the radar, as they came back to win their next five in a row.

Postseason Play:

The ACC Tournament was a bit of a struggle for the Heels. They came in as the #1 seed, but got down big in the first half against Miami in the quarters. They were able to come back and win due mostly to Miami ineptitude. Then, they got down by a significant margin to Clemson in the semis. Barnes hit some big shots and led Carolina back to an overtime win. This led to a third matchup with Duke in the finals. It was Blue Devils all the way from the start, as Duke jumped out to a double-digit halftime lead and ended up winning by 17.

North Carolina came into the NCAA Tournament with a 2 seed, and started with an easy win over Long Island. They had a tougher time in the second round game against Washington, coming up with a huge play on an in-bounds from Henson and a last-minute stop to win. In the Sweet 16, Carolina blew out an overmatched Marquette team, one of the most lopsided games of the tournament. Then came the Kentucky game. The Wildcats seemed to have a good game plan against the Heels, and made a ton of 3s in a mild upset.

Looking Ahead:

With the return of Henson, Barnes and Tyler Zeller, most pundits have North Carolina pegged as the best team next season. And it's hard to argue with that. If they can keep working on developing team chemistry, they can certainly win it all. Carolina will have as much talent as anyone in the country. The best player they are losing is Justin Knox, who averaged 4.6 points per game. The only thing that can keep Carolina from taking it all next year will be themselves.

2011-05-09T13:29:00.002-04:00

Season in Review

Miami
21-15 (6-10 ACC)

There was a lot of optimism coming into last season for Miami. They hadn't played well the year before, but had a strong ACC Tournament and had pretty much everyone coming back. What most fans overlooked was the fact that this was still Miami - a team that continually underachieved. And the result this year was another disappointing season.

The Canes played okay in the early season. They beat West Virginia and Ole Miss but lost to Rutgers by 16 and to UCF by 6. Miami was largely untested in the first month or so of the season, and it showed when conference play began. They started 1-6 in the ACC, with many of those losses being really tough, close games. Miami had a stretch of 7 conference games where the largest margin was 4 points. That is a lot of close games! They did win three games in a row to get back into decent position, but were never really in the hunt to make the NCAA Tournament. They were able to play the role of spoiler a couple times, hurting the NCAA Tournament chances of Boston College and Maryland with wins over them. Miami was able to make the NIT, where they ended up losing to Alabama.

Miami was carried throughout the year by the three players expected to carry the team. Malcolm Grand, Durand Scott and Reggie Johnson combined for about 40 points per game. The problem is they never seemed to have all of them playing well at the same time, and didn't get much out of the bench. They often would get into streetball mode and feature one guy driving against the other team, putting up a wild shot. Coach Frank Haith was a hot name early on in his career at Miami, but really didn't do much the last several years and was on the hot seat. Fortunately for Miami, Haith was surprisingly offered the job at Missouri and bolted.

Biggest Win:
79-76 vs. West Virginia on 12/4

This was Miami's only win over a team that made the NCAA Tournament. They won in dramatic fashion, coming back from a 13 point deficit in the second half thanks to 26 points from Grant. This was also a rare game that Miami was able to win at the end.

Worst Loss:
61-45 at Rutgers on 11/21

Rutgers is an okay team at home, but there really is no excuse for going up to New Jersey and scoring only 45 points, losing by 16. Miami only shot 29 percent against the Scarlet Knights, and only got 3 points from Grant. Rutgers ended up winning only 5 games in the Big East this year.

Postseason Play:

The ACC Tournament was an adventure for Miami. They had an improbable win over Virginia, in which the Cavaliers lost a 10 point lead in the final 40 seconds. It was a combination of total ineptitude by Virginia and some clutch plays by Miami to complete the comeback. The shoe was on the other foot for the quarterfinal game. Miami built a big lead over #1 seed North Carolina before completely blowing it in the last 10 minutes and losing by 2. Miami did earn an NIT bid, winning home games over Florida Atlantic and Missouri State fairly easily before losing to Alabama by 15.

Looking Ahead:

After Haith left for Missouri, Miami took a long time on its coaching search before coming up with an unexpected hire. They lured longtime George Mason Coach Jim Larranaga away from Northern Virginia. Larranaga had unquestionable success at Mason, with that unforgettable trip to the Final Four and numerous NCAA bids. How he will be able to win at a school with the pressure to compete in the ACC is another question. Miami doesn't have a great basketball pedigree, and it will take some work for Larranaga to change that. He does inherit some pretty good players. Johnson decided that he will not stay in the NBA Draft, and will return to Miami. Grant and Scott will be back as well (assuming they don't transfer). In fact, the only senior is Adrian Thomas, who was a 3-point specialist. If Larranaga can get the players to buy in to his style, they could move up in the conference next year.

2011-05-05T17:36:00.002-04:00

Update: Maryland

A lot has happened in the past 48 hours for the Maryland Terrapins program since I wrote the Season In Review. Yesterday, we learned that Jordan Williams has hired an agent and will not be coming back to school. While this was expected, it is still a big blow for the team. He was the best player on the team by a wide margin and the only true post threat.

The worst news came this afternoon - with Coach Gary Williams' retirement. This definitely came as a surprise. While Williams has been at Maryland for a long time (22 years), he is not that old and seemed to still enjoy the challenges of coaching. Williams wasn't the best recruiter in the country - in recent years especially he missed out on some big name recruits. But he was probably the best motivator and in-game coach in the conference besides Coach K. The program will definitely miss him. At this late juncture, it's going to be tough to get a top level coach to replace him. Maryland has a good tradition even before Coach Williams got there (mainly because of Lefty Driesell) but I can't help but wonder if this might be the start of a significant decline for Maryland hoops.

2011-05-03T10:52:00.003-04:00

Season in Review

Maryland
19-14 (7-9 ACC)

Even the most die-hard Maryland fans had to acknowledge that this past year would be a down year following the loss of Greivis Vasquez. And that's how it turned out. The Terps had a lot of young players who played a lot of significant time - and that led to some inconsistency. For the most part, Maryland beat the teams that it was better than, but just couldn't get a big win over a better team.

The Terps handled themselves pretty well in Madison Square Garden early in the year, but were ultimately overmatched in losses to Pitt and Illinois. The rest of their non-conference slate was pretty undistinguished, and they had a disappointing loss in their ACC opener at home to Boston College. As the ACC season went on, the Terps just couldn't seem to string together a series of wins to get any momentum. They were on the outside of the NCAA bubble much of the year, and seemed to run out of gas at the end of the ACC season, losing their last three conference games. Somewhat surprisingly, the Terps did not even get an NIT bid, and the ACC Tournament marked the end of their season.

Jordan Williams did it all for Maryland. He had a long streak of consecutive double-doubles, and ended up with 16.9 points per game and 11.8 rebounds per game on the year. When he didn't play well, the Terps didn't play well. Other than Williams, the only other double figure scorer was freshman Terrell Stoglin. Veteran players like Cliff Tucker, Adrian Bowie and Sean Mosley didn't produce consistently enough to lift Maryland. And three point shooting was a big problem. No one that played on a consistent basis shot better than 36% for the year from three point range.

Biggest Win:
78-62 vs. Florida State on 2/23

It was tough to find a signature win for this Terps team. They had only a few wins against teams that made the NCAA Tournament. They did manage a nice 16 point win here against a Florida State team that made the Sweet 16, although FSU was just learning how to play without Chris Singleton. This got the Terps to 7-6 in the ACC before they lost three straight.

Worst Loss:
74-60 vs. Virginia on 3/5

Maryland came into this Senior Day game against their rival Virginia needing a win to finish 8-8 in the conference. They were very flat in this one and let the Cavaliers control the game from the opening tip. This came after Maryland had won the game in Charlottesville by 24 points.

Postseason Play:

Maryland came into the ACC Tournament as the 7 seed, and had a fairly easy eight point victory over NC State. They then had to play Duke on short rest. That proved to be very tough, as they ran out of gas in the second half and lost by 16. Maryland probably didn't think that would be the end of their season, but they didn't get an NIT bid.

Looking Ahead:

Maryland fans pin much of their hope for next season on the decision due soon from Williams. If he decides to come back to school (which at this point seems unlikely) the Terps could have a very solid team next year. If not, they have a big hole in the frontcourt. The team's other frontcourt starter, Dino Gregory, is graduating. Bowie and Tucker are graduating as well. What Maryland is left with are two rising sophomores in Stoglin and Pe'Shon Howard who could end up being great players. James Padgett could be a solid player in the post, but the Terps need more if they are going to make it back to the NCAAs next year.

2011-04-30T09:15:00.002-04:00

Season in Review

Georgia Tech

13-18 (5-11 ACC)

The season went about as expected for Georgia Tech. They lost a lot of talent from the previous year, especially down low, and didn't have the horses to really compete in the ACC. That ended up marking the end for Coach Paul Hewitt. Hewitt had some success at Georgia Tech, making it to the championship game in 2004, but he couldn't win with the talent he recruited and couldn't keep that talent in school for more than a year or two.

As for this past season, it was a struggle from the beginning. Georgia Tech lost their second game to Kennesaw State by 17 points. In Kennesaw's only other game against a major conference team, they lost by 40 points to Iowa State. The Yellow Jackets couldn't really pick up any momentum all season. They had a decent non-conference win against Richmond, but followed that up with a loss to Siena.

In conference, Georgia Tech had a couple good home wins, against UNC and Virginia Tech. But they once again couldn't win on the road, with their only conference road win coming against Wake Forest. At one point they lost 8 of 9, with the only win being a non-conference game against Chattanooga. The one bright spot for the team this year was Iman Shumpert. He averaged more than 17 points per game, 5.9 rebounds and 3.5 assists. He was Georgia Tech's best offensive and defensive player. Georgia Tech's main problem was a complete lack of inside scoring. Their top six scorers on the year were all guards, and you have to go to Daniel Miller's 4.4 points per game to see the top scorer on the inside.

Biggest Win:

78-58 vs. UNC on 1/16

This one was a head-scratcher. North Carolina was playing very well, but had a real hiccup here in a 20 point loss down in Atlanta. Georgia Tech held UNC to 27% shooting for the game, and got 30 points out of Shumpert. They were able to follow this up with a 35 point win over Wake Forest.

Worst Loss:

80-63 at Kennesaw State on 11/15

How could this not be the worst loss? I mentioned earlier how bad Kennesaw State was this year. They only won 8 games, and this was their second largest margin of victory all year. You could tell after this game that Georgia Tech was not headed for a good season.

Postseason Play:

Georgia Tech's stay in the postseason was very brief. They played Virginia Tech in the first round of the ACC Tournament, and had a terrible effort. The team had no life, got down big early, and managed only 43 points in a 16 point loss.

Looking Ahead:

Georgia Tech is starting fresh next year with a new coach. The hiring of Dayton's Brian Gregory brought mixed reviews. Gregory had some success with the Flyers, but had been an NIT team of late. He will need to change the culture of losing and fanbase apathy in Atlanta. How successful Gregory is in his first season will depend largely on what Shumpert decides. He has entered his name for the NBA draft but has not hired an agent. If he leaves, that leaves a big hole in the backcourt. If he stays, most of the team remains intact. The only other seniors that had significant playing time were Maurice Miller and Lance Storrs, who combined to score 8.6 points per game. If Georgia Tech can find some frontcourt players they can have a decent year.

2011-04-27T21:33:00.002-04:00

Season in Review

Florida State

23-11 (11-5 ACC)

If you are Florida State fan you have to be pretty happy with how this past season went. For years Florida State had a tough time breaking through that NCAA Tournament barrier: they went 8-8 or so every year and just missed out. Then, they started making it to the tournament but couldn't win a game. This year, though, they were able to win two games, and made it to the Sweet 16. You have to give Leonard Hamilton a lot of credit for the job he did. They were without their best player, Chris Singleton, for much of the ACC season, but held it together very well.

It wasn't the smoothest of runs for FSU. They lost two big home games in a row in November, then lost a stretch of 3 out of 4 at the start of the ACC season. But a win over #1 Duke catapulted them to 5 wins in 6 games. The only home game they lost in conference was to UNC, and they went a respectable 4-4 in the ACC on the road. When Singleton was out, players like Bernard James and Derwin Kitchen really picked up the slack. It was really a team effort, with only Singleton averaging more than 11 points per game.

Biggest Win:

57-50 vs. Texas A&M on 3/18 (NCAA Tournament)

This was the win that got FSU over the hump of not having won a game in the NCAA Tournament. They were coming off a heartbreaking loss to Virginia Tech in the ACC Tournament and not much was expected of them in the Big Dance. But the Seminoles responded, even without a healthy Singleton, and this win propelled them to an upset win over Notre Dame.

Worst Loss:

65-60 at Auburn on 1/3

Florida State got a lot of grief for this loss to a really terrible Auburn team. There's not much to say about this one except that the Seminoles shot 35% against a team that went 11-20 this year.

Postseason Play:

The postseason was a mixed bag for FSU. They lost in crazy fashion in the quarterfinal of the ACC Tournament, on a basket by Kitchen that was disallowed at the buzzer against Virginia Tech. Rather than letting that ruin their season, though, the team responded. As a 10 seed, they beat Texas A&M by 7 and Notre Dame by 14. In the Sweet 16, bad possessions at the end of regulation and overtime doomed the Seminoles to a one point loss against VCU.

Looking Ahead:

The question about Florida State now is whether they will be able to sustain success. They have turned into the third best school in the ACC behind North Carolina and Duke, and will be looking to make their fourth straight NCAA berth. They obviously suffer a big loss with Singleton leaving early for the NBA. Kitchen, the second leading scorer, leaves as well. But the only other seniors on the squad never played. They should be quite good with Michael Snaer running the show in the backcourt, and James and Xavier Gibson in the frontcourt. The team's strength will continue to be defense, and if they can develop some consistent 3-point shooters they can make another Sweet 16 run.

2011-04-25T19:23:00.002-04:00

Season in Review

Duke

32-5 (13-3 ACC)

The expectations were sky high for Duke this year, coming off a National Championship run and returning nearly all of their players. Nothing they did at the beginning of the season did anything to dampen these expectations. Then, ironically, the season took a turn during the Butler game. Star guard Kyrie Irving got injured, forcing him out for the rest of the regular season. Duke still played pretty well without him, losing only 4 games. There were some signs of weakness, though, especially in their losses.

One of their main problems was the relative ineffectiveness of Kyle Singler. With all the buildup, Singler really had a disappointing year. He especially had a rough stretch near the end of the ACC season. Singler ended up scoring 16.9 points per game, but he only shot 32% from the 3 point line. A positive for Duke was the emergence of players like Seth Curry. Curry ended up averaging 9 points per game but came up big in some big games (especially their home game against UNC).

Of course any discussion of Duke starts and ends with Nolan Smith. He had a monster year, carrying the team on his back in some games, and was really a star for the Blue Devils. Smith ended up with 20.6 points per game, shooting nearly 46% from the field and leading the team in assists. Duke has to be disappointed with the way they ended the season, and I think most of that goes back to Irving. He returned for the NCAA Tournament, and that had a big impact on the team's chemistry. They struggled in a close win against Michigan and then were flat out demolished in the second half against Arizona.

Biggest Win:

75-58 vs. North Carolina on 3/13 (ACC Tournament Final)

Duke always gets up for the ACC Tournament, and played that whole week like they had something to prove. Many people thought UNC would be able to beat them for the second time in a week, but the Devils were having none of that. They controlled this game from start to finish and looked great in building a comfortable lead against their hated rivals. You could tell that the team really wanted that game in their postgame interviews.

Worst Loss:

93-78 at St. John's on 1/30

You could put the loss to Arizona in this spot, but I look at the January non-conference game against the Johnnies. This was the game where you really could see a chink in the armor. Duke was down by 21 points at halftime in a game that most people expected them to win. This was only the second loss of the season and the first one in blowout fashion.

Postseason Play:

As I said before, Duke played very well in the ACC Tournament, rolling to fairly easy wins over Maryland, Virginia Tech and UNC. Their smallest margin of victory was 14. Then the team took a #1 seed into the NCAA Tournament. They had no trouble with Hampton, but had to survive a last-second shot attempt to beat Michigan by 2. Then came the game against Arizona. They played solidly in the first half but it all fell apart for Duke in the second half and they ended up losing by 16. Definitely a bitter end to a season that had a lot of promise.

Looking Ahead:

There is no such thing as rebuilding at Duke, and to think that they will be anything other than great next year is foolish. The team definitely loses a lot, with Singler and Smith graduating and Irving leaving early for the NBA. That represents the top 3 scorers. There is still a lot of talent remaining, though, with Curry and Andre Dawkins in the backcourt. They will be joined by the highly touted Austin Rivers (son of Doc), who will be a freshman. The frontcourt will basically be all Plumlees, and Ryan Kelly. Look for Duke to be in the preseason top 10.

2011-04-22T19:03:00.002-04:00

Season in Review

Clemson

22-12 (9-7 ACC)

Like Boston College, you'd have to say this season was a pleasant surprise for Clemson. Even coming off a string of three consecutive NCAA Tournament berths, not a whole lot was expected of this team. They had a fairly unknown commodity in Coach Brad Brownell, who was coming from Wright State. Their best player, Trevor Booker, was gone. And the Tigers came out of the gate a bit cold - they lost four games early in the season. But Clemson was able to turn it around by the end of the year. They played very well down the stretch, going from a team off the bubble to one that played its way into the NCAA Tournament.

The best player for Clemson this year was Demontez Stitt. The senior guard led the team in scoring and had the ability to knock down big shots. The team wasn't just about one player though: six players averaged at least 7.8 points per game. And Clemson was able to play lockdown defense, changing from that pressing style of Oliver Purnell to a more tight man-to-man.

Biggest Win:

70-47 vs. Boston College on 3/11 (ACC Tournament Quarterfinals)

What I had as BC's worst loss is Clemson's biggest win. Many people saw this game as a winner is in, loser is out of the NCAA Tournament. And that's how it ended up playing out. Clemson played perhaps its best game of the year in this one, beating up on BC from the very start. They used this momentum in another solid game against UNC in the semis, just running out of steam at the end.

Worst Loss:

49-47 at Virginia on 2/2

It's not the fact that they lost in Charlottesville, because Virginia was not that bad of a team. But this game was ugly with a capital U. Clemson was actually down big with horrendous offensive numbers for much of the game before mounting a late rally to make it close. I'm sure Coach Brownell would agree this was probably their worst performance.

Postseason Play:

Clemson played very well in the postseason. After earning a #4 seed in the ACC Tournament, they beat up on #5 seed Boston College. Then they took on UNC in a virtual road game and had a great game, only to fall in overtime. Clemson then got into the dreaded play-in game in the NCAA Tournament and beat up on a UAB team that was overmatched. They had a very quick turnaround against #5 seed West Virginia and actually had a healthy lead through much of the first half but tired down the stretch and ended up losing by 8.

Looking Ahead:

You have to like what Coach Brownell did this year with a group that wasn't his own players. Next year should be set up pretty well, as the Tigers don't lose too much. Stitt and Jerai Grant do graduate. They represent the team's top two scorers this year. But the Tigers do return an emerging talent in Milton Jennings. Andre Young needs to continue to grow as a shooter, as he will be the main outside game next year. And expect a good year out of Devin Booker (Trevor's brother). If Tanner Smith can become a more consistent scorer in the backcourt Clemson should be in good shape to make a fifth consecutive NCAA Tournament.

2011-04-19T21:05:00.002-04:00

Season in Review: Boston College

The dust has settled on the ACC season and it's time to look back and see how each team did. Did the season perform up to expectations? Or was it a disappointment? We start with Boston College.

Boston College

21-13 (9-7 ACC)

You have to say this season was a pleasant surprise for BC. They were coming off a bad season, lost their best player from the year before (Tyrese Rice) and had a new coach. But you have to give Steve Donahue credit. He took what was a fairly experienced team that was used to playing the flex offense and got them to buy into his system. The team started off well, beating Texas A&M and Cal in Orlando. They started the ACC season with a road win over Maryland and put up some solid wins from there on out.

The season did end in disappointing fashion for BC. They lost by a wide margin in a key ACC Tournament game against Clemson, and didn't make the cut for the Big Dance. They ended up losing in the second round of the NIT, at home against Northwestern. For the Eagles this year, it was all about Reggie Jackson. Jackson ended up scoring more than 18 points per game and ran the point efficiently.

Biggest Win:

67-65 vs. Texas A&M on 11/25 (in Orlando)

This was the game where people started to take notice of Boston College. They played a tough Texas A&M team that was a quality tournament team and got out to a hot start. This was the opening game in the Old Spice Classic, which ended up being a 2-1 week for BC.

Worst Loss:

70-47 vs. Clemson on 3/11 (ACC Tournament Quarterfinals)

This was probably the game that kept BC out of the NCAA Tournament. They had losses to worse teams than Clemson, but there wasn't a more important loss. And it wasn't just the fact that they lost - they got blown out. After this game, the team really didn't have an argument for getting left out of the tournament.

Postseason Play:

You'd have to say that the postseason was disappointing. BC won their first round game in the ACC Tournament over Wake Forest before losing to Clemson. In the NIT they went down to McNeese State and won before losing to Northwestern before a sparse home crowd on a Saturday morning.

Looking Ahead:

Much of what happens with BC next year depends on what Reggie Jackson does. Right now, he has declared for the NBA Draft but has not hired an agent, leaving open the possibility that he comes back. Even if Jackson does come back, there isn't much around him. BC loses seniors Joe Trapani, Josh Southern, Biko Paris, Corey Raji, Courtney Dunn and Josh Cahill. That represents four of the top five scorers this year. The next best player left is Danny Rubin, who averaged four points per game. I think Donahue is a good coach who will do well at BC, but next year will probably see some growing pains.

2011-04-06T14:08:00.002-04:00

Coming Soon!

Sadly, the college basketball season is over. What was a very interesting tournament ended in a lackluster championship game, with Butler turning in one of the worst final game performances I've ever seen. That shouldn't take anything away from what Butler accomplished this year (and last year). That remains one of the best feats in my lifetime in the sport.

With the season now over, I will be taking a look back. Once Miami hires a new coach, I will start running down all the teams in the conference - did this past season live up to expectations? And what does next year look like? Stay tuned!

2011-04-04T17:42:00.002-04:00

National Final Preview

Last year it really seemed like Butler had a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to win the National Championship. No one would have expected them to get back to the game with another chance the very next year. What they have done is truly remarkable. I said this morning that Brad Stevens should get an automatic invite into the Hall of Fame if Butler wins this game - and I say that only half-jokingly.

Connecticut has defied the odds this season too. No one expected them to do much this year, coming off an NIT season. But they have won 10 straight tournament games, led by their star Kemba Walker. I think if Walker has a good game, UConn will be very difficult to beat. Their bigs will give Matt Howard problems, and Butler has to have a good game from Shelvin Mack to compete. Of course, Butler has found ways to win against seemingly insurmountable odds already this year (and last). So counting them out is not something I would recommend. I will go with UConn, though, in what should be an excellent game.

Pick: Connecticut

2011-04-01T13:25:00.003-04:00

Final Four Preview

What a wild NCAA Tournament this has been! This is the first year that I can remember throwing my bracket in the trash before the Final Four. The last four teams include one from the Colonial and one from the Horizon leagues. And they are playing each other! Conventional wisdom says the winner of the second semifinal game will win it all, but I threw conventional wisdom out the window a while ago.

#11 VCU vs. #8 Butler (6:07 p.m.) - I don't know which is the better story - VCU or Butler. The fact that Butler has made two straight Final Fours is remarkable - one of the best achievements in the history of college basketball. VCU meanwhile is the darling of the tournament and the team that has pulled off the most shocking upset (over Kansas). I think the difference between these two teams is experience. VCU has never been even close to the Final Four, and will be playing in the biggest stage of their life. Butler has been there done that, and has a seasoned and battle-tested team. VCU certainly can win this game, but I'm going to go with Butler. Pick: Butler

#4 Kentucky vs. #3 Connecticut (8:47 p.m.) - It's hard to believe that a program with the tradition of Kentucky hasn't been to the Final Four since 1998. But here they are with as good a chance as any to take home the title. This has to be rewarding for John Calipari, especially since everyone expected them to be here last year and they couldn't get the job done. It will be interesting to watch Kentucky's young team go against Kemba Walker, the kind of star that deserves to have that Final Four stage. Besides Jeremy Lamb, we'll see what other players can step up for Connecticut. I think this will be an excellent game, and for the second time this year UConn will beat Kentucky. Pick: Connecticut

2011-03-26T11:32:00.002-04:00

NCAA Tournament: Saturday Preview

We are down to the Elite 8, and one ACC team is left standing after Duke and Florida State lost in the round of 16. Among the eight teams left, we have a team from the Horizon and the CAA, but none from the Big Ten. That is a wow. Here's a preview of today's games:

#8 Butler vs. #2 Florida (2:30 p.m.) - What can you say about the job that Brad Stevens has done at Butler? In each of the last two years, many people have picked Butler to lose in the first round. All they have done is won 8 games in those two years (so far). And it's getting harder to pick against them. Meanwhile, Florida is enjoying its best year since it won back-to-back championships with the Joakim Noah team. This matchup should be familiar for fans of both teams - they do have a history against each other.

I think the key for Butler is preventing the drive and kick for Florida. I saw the Gators doing a lot of that against BYU, and they ended up knocking down a lot of threes. For Florida, I would go right at Matt Howard down low and make him commit fouls. Butler is much better when Howard is on the floor and out of foul trouble.

#5 Arizona vs. #3 UConn (5:05 p.m.) - Arizona opened a lot of eyes with their play in the second half against Duke on Thursday. Derrick Williams had a coming out party with a number of eye-popping dunks and 3-pointers. They carry a lot of momentum into this game against a Connecticut team that has been truly remarkable the last couple weeks. After winning five games in five days, they have continued their run in the NCAAs on the back of Kemba Walker.

I think the key in this game is the secondary scorers. You know that Walker and Williams will have big games. But how Momo Jones and Jeremy Lamb play will go a long way in determining today's winner.

2011-03-24T12:11:00.002-04:00

ACC Teams Update

Three ACC teams are still playing - all are in the NCAA Tournament. Boston College and Virginia Tech lost in the second round of the NIT, and Miami lost in the quarterfinals. That leaves Duke, North Carolina and Florida State. Duke and Carolina were expected to make it to the Sweet 16; FSU was not. Here's a look at their matchups for the Sweet 16:

Thursday:

#1 Duke vs. #5 Arizona - Most people thought this would be a matchup between Duke and Texas, but the Wildcats won in the last minute, setting up this showdown with Duke. Understandably, the Blue Devils were a little rusty in integrating Kyrie Irving back in the lineup. They will get a good game from an Arizona squad that has the talent to win.

Friday:

#2 UNC vs. #11 Marquette - Like the Duke game, most people thought UNC would be facing a stiffer challenge against Syracuse. Instead they get Marquette, one of the two Big East teams left standing. Marquette was very up and down this year. They certainly believe that they can pull another upset. I'm not as confident.

#11 VCU vs. #10 Florida State - I don't think many brackets had this Sweet 16 matchup. Both teams played very well last weekend. VCU is riding high right now, playing great on both ends of the floor. It will be interesting to see how they play against a Florida State defense that is one of the best in the nation. I could see this game going either way.

2011-03-17T10:20:00.002-04:00

Postseason Update

All of the ACC teams that have played in the postseason so far have won - and all have won by double digits. Here's an update on their next games:

NCAA Tournament

#12 Clemson vs. #5 West Virginia (Thursday, 12:15 p.m.) - Clemson played well in a big win over UAB, and is rewarded by making a very short turnaround and flying from Ohio to Florida. They have to face a Mountaineer team that may be overseeded as a 5 but always plays well in the NCAA Tournament. This should be one of the better matchups on Thursday.

NIT

Northwestern at Boston College (Saturday, 11:00 a.m.) - BC won big at McNeese State, and gets to return home to face a tougher opponent. Northwestern had promise to start the season, and won big over Georgia Tech early in the year. But they have not been good on the road and BC should win this one.

Wichita State at Virginia Tech (Sunday, 11:00 a.m.) - The Hokies came out and put the NCAA snub behind them, creaming Bethune-Cookman. They will have to carry the same energy in an odd Sunday morning start against a Wichita State team that also played well on Wednesday, beating Nebraska. The Shockers may be the toughest challenge the Hokies have to make it to MSG.

Missouri State at Miami (Monday, 7:00 p.m.) - The Hurricanes won their first round NIT game pretty easily against Florida Atlantic. They should get a good game Monday against Missouri State, which was the best team in the regular season in the Missouri Valley before losing to Indiana State in the finals of the MVC Tournament.

2011-03-15T13:18:00.002-04:00

ACC in the Postseason

All year long, the talk from the experts was that the ACC was down. The respect (or lack thereof) given to the conference this weekend is a representation of that statement. Only 7 of the 12 teams made any sort of postseason play, with just 4 in the NCAA Tournament. The season is over for Maryland, Virginia, NC State, Georgia Tech and Wake Forest. The other 7 play on. Here's a look at their next games:

NCAA Tournament

Clemson vs. UAB (Tuesday, 9:00 p.m. in Dayton) - It's a good news/bad news situation for Clemson. The good news is they made the tournament in Brad Brownell's first year. The bad news is that Clemson has to play in the play-in game, and if they win, they have to turn around and play early on Thursday in Tampa. I do think Clemson is a better team than UAB, and they should win this one to set up a matchup with West Virginia.

Duke vs. Hampton (Friday, 3:10 p.m. in Charlotte) - Duke was rewarded with a 1 seed and two games in Charlotte. They shouldn't have much trouble with a Hampton team that lost at Wake Forest by 7 in the first game of the year.

Florida State vs. Texas A&M (Friday, 4:10 p.m. in Chicago) - This is a very interesting 7/10 matchup. It looks like Florida State will have Chris Singleton available to play. They will have what likely will be a low-scoring affair against a Texas A&M team that won 13 straight games earlier this year but hasn't been playing its best ball lately.

North Carolina vs. Long Island (Friday, 7:15 p.m. in Charlotte) - Tar Heel fans have to be a little nervous after the Heels' performance in the ACC Tournament. They didn't play anywhere near their potential in those three games. Whether they can put it all together could mean the difference between a second round exit and a final four run. Regardless, they will win this game.

NIT

Boston College at McNeese State (Tuesday, 9:00 p.m.) - Boston College got a 1 seed in the NIT, but for some reason are playing in Louisiana at McNeese State. I can only assume that the Conte Forum was booked on Tuesday night. McNeese State finished first in the Southland Conference. They lost all their games against power conference teams, including a 20 point loss at Miami.

Florida Atlantic at Miami (Wednesday, 7:30 p.m.) - Florida Atlantic will make the short drive down I-95 to Miami to take on the Hurricanes. It's curious that Miami got in the NIT instead of Maryland. Regardless, they have a chance to gain some momentum heading into next year. Florida Atlantic won 13 games in the Sun Belt and won at Mississippi State early in the year.

Bethune-Cookman at Virginia Tech (Wednesday, 8:00 p.m.) - Obviously the biggest question going into this one is motivation: will Virginia Tech's players really be up for an NIT matchup against a team from the Mid-Eastern Conference? Bethune-Cookman did well in conference, but lost to Arizona by 34 and Baylor by 44.

2011-03-13T11:40:00.002-04:00

ACC Tournament: Final Preview

First off, sorry that I didn't have a semifinal preview. After the late and crazy ending of the Virginia Tech-Florida State game, I decided to go to Greensboro for yesterday's semis, and had to leave early for that. It was an interesting Saturday at the ACC Tournament. Clemson has to be kicking themselves for losing their game at the end to UNC. They outplayed the Tar Heels for much of that game, only to see Harrison Barnes and company make big shots at the end of regulation and overtime. Clemson sure looks like an NCAA Tournament team - we'll see how things shake out.

The second game wasn't quite as exciting. Virginia Tech fought hard but didn't have enough left in the tank to compete with a Duke team that seems to be bringing its best to the ACC Tournament as always. Nolan Smith was terrific against the Hokies. Like Clemson, Virginia Tech now waits its fate tonight.

So now to today's game: Duke vs. UNC. Surprisingly, these two teams haven't met in the ACC final since 2001. The atmosphere in the Greensboro Coliseum is going to be off the charts. It's not often you get college basketball's best rivalry at a neutral site with lots of both teams' fans.

As for the game, I give Duke the slight edge. They have definitely been playing better than UNC over the last two days. They are just a more disciplined and defensively sound team. Smith and Singler appear to be playing well at the same time, which is a big boost. I think Duke will be able to neutralize the fast break of UNC and will have a defense set up to stop Barnes. Like the game in Cameron, I see Duke's strategy being to try to make Kendall Marshall a shooter. He's shown the ability to make big shots (had a critical 3 in OT yesterday) but is inconsistent.

The Heels have to get off to a better start. They can't get down double digits to Duke and expect them to fold at the end of the game like Miami, and to a lesser degree, Clemson. UNC will have the majority of the crowd support and certainly has a good chance, but I like the Devils to win this one and probably earn a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

2011-03-11T10:50:00.002-05:00

ACC Tournament: Quarterfinals Preview

It wasn't the most riveting day one at the ACC Tournament, with the last three games all being pretty much no contest. You saw several teams that just had no life, no fight in them. And that has to be frustrating for fans. NC State and Georgia Tech in particular just seemed to be playing out the string, waiting for their season to be over. We did have one amazing game that saw Virginia have one of the biggest late-game collapses I've ever seen. That has to be just a crushing way to end the season.

Thankfully, Friday should be much more entertaining. Here's a preview:

#1 UNC vs. #9 Miami (12:00 p.m.) - I've heard a lot of chatter about how Miami is a sleeper team and UNC should be on the lookout. I don't agree with this at all. Miami was frankly really lucky to beat UVA - they had scored only 10 points in the second half through the first 19 minutes. I think UNC will run all over the Canes.
Pick: UNC

#4 Clemson vs. #5 Boston College (2:30 p.m.) - It's hard to glean much from BC's win over Wake Forest. Both of these teams know that they have to win this game to put them in good position for the NCAA Tournament. Clemson beat BC in their first meeting in Littlejohn. Clemson's size will cause a problem for BC, but I think Reggie Jackson will carry the Eagles to a win.
Pick: BC

#1 Duke vs. #7 Maryland (7:00 p.m.) - Gary Williams and the Terps were able to pull things together to play a good game against NC State. They will face a much stiffer challenge tonight against a Duke team that has lost 2 of its last 3 games. I think Kyle Singler will step it up, and Duke's guards will make life tough for Pe'Shon Howard and Terrell Stoglin.
Pick: Duke

#3 Florida State vs. #6 Virginia Tech (9:30 p.m.) - The Hokies played inspired ball against Georgia Tech on Thursday, turning around their recent struggles. They know that they have to get work done this week to make the field. There are rumblings that Chris Singleton will be back for Florida State, but how productive he will be is a big question. I think the Hokies will carry the momentum from last night and knock off the Noles.
Pick: Virginia Tech

2011-03-08T11:35:00.002-05:00

ACC Tournament Preview: First Round

The ACC Tournament starts on Thursday, with some interesting matchups. For most teams, though, the real interest doesn't start until Friday. This week's tournament could mean the difference between an NCAA bid and a berth in the NIT. It can also be huge in terms of seeding.

Last year, the tournament was chaos. The 11 and 12 seeds won multiple games, and in the quarterfinals, the 2, 3 and 4 seeds all lost. I don't see that pattern repeating this year, but you never know.

So here's a look at Thursday's slate:

#8 Virginia vs. #9 Miami (12:00 p.m.) - These are two teams that at the beginning of the year you would not have thought would have matched up in this 8/9 game. But Virginia has held things together very well while Miami has moved in the other direction. The Hurricanes have more talent than Virginia, but have lost so many close games this year. The Cavaliers, meanwhile, are playing some of their best basketball of the year.
Pick: Virginia

#5 Boston College vs. #12 Wake Forest (2:30 p.m.) - Here's an eye-opening stat for you: Wake Forest has only played in two conference games in which they have not lost by double digits. Last year they were in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. They just played up in Boston and lost by a significant margin, and I don't see anything changing in this one.
Pick: BC

#7 Maryland vs. #10 NC State (7:00 p.m.) - It seems like once the Terps lost any hope of making the NCAA Tournament, the air was let out of the balloon. They have lost their last two games by double digits to Miami and Virginia. NC State looked very uninspired in their last two games against Virginia and Florida State. This game could be ugly.
Pick: Maryland

#6 Virginia Tech vs. #11 Georgia Tech (9:30 p.m.) - This is really the only Thursday game that affects anyone's NCAA possibilities. The Hokies have to find a way to play much more inspired ball than they did in the last two games. Georgia Tech has been playing out the string the last month, but has won its last two games and gets Brian Oliver back. Regardless, Virginia Tech is the better team and must win this game.
Pick: Virginia Tech

2011-03-05T10:03:00.003-05:00

Weekend Preview

Well, here we are. This is the last weekend of games in the regular season, and there is a lot at stake for several ACC teams. Obviously, Duke vs. UNC is the biggest game on the national radar. But there are other crucial matchups as well. Here we go:

Saturday:

Virginia Tech at Clemson (12:00 p.m.) - What a big game this is for both teams. Virginia Tech is coming off a pretty damaging home loss to Boston College. Clemson is coming off a loss at Duke. Both teams really need to win this game to feel better about their chances of making the NCAAs. I think that the Hokies can still get in if they lose this game, but if Clemson loses they are out. You have to believe this one will be a low scoring slugfest. First to 60 might win.

Virginia at Maryland (2:00 p.m.) - The Terps pretty much blew any chance they had of making the NCAAs with an uninspired performance at Miami. They have to feel deflated in this game. I think Virginia is catching them at the right time, coming off a nice home win over NC State. The Terps should win this one but don't be surprised if Virginia pulls the upset.

Duke at North Carolina (8:00 p.m.) - What can you say about this matchup? I don't think anyone thought UNC would be a home win away from winning the regular season title. But with their last second win over FSU they are right there with a great chance. Duke certainly looked vulnerable in last week's loss to Virginia Tech. This one should be a great contest.

Sunday:

Wake Forest at Boston College (12:00 p.m.) - I thought Wake had a decent chance at a win at home against Georgia Tech, but they didn't even come close. I certainly don't see them pulling off a road win against a Boston College team that is feeling better about their NCAA chances.

Miami at Georgia Tech (2:30 p.m.) - These are two talented but underachieving teams. There really isn't much to play for here. It may be the last time Paul Hewitt coaches at the Thriller Dome.

Florida State at NC State (6:15 p.m.) - Florida State showed some heart in their matchup with UNC, but at the end of the day it was still a loss. They should be comfortably in the NCAAs, but if they lose this one they could be in a little trouble. NC State isn't playing for anything but could be a spoiler.

2011-02-28T21:48:00.002-05:00

Week Preview

There is one week left in the regular season of the ACC and for some teams these games are pivotal. Over the weekend, Virginia Tech got it done, beating the #1 team in the nation, Duke, for a signature win. Boston College picked up an important win at Virginia. And Maryland suffered what could be the final blow to their NCAA chances, losing at UNC.

Here are the ACC games ahead during the week:

Tuesday:

NC State at Virginia (7:00 p.m.) - This is a pretty meaningless game in terms of the NCAA Tournament. Both teams are playing better, though. Virginia has won two of the last three. And NC State is coming off a win over Georgia Tech.

Boston College at Virginia Tech (9:00 p.m.) - This is a huge game for both teams. Boston College is in most people's first four out list after losing at home to Miami last week. They will hope to catch Virginia Tech in a letdown game after their win over Duke. The Hokies will likely put themselves firmly in the tournament if they get their 10th ACC win here.

Wednesday:

Maryland at Miami (7:00 p.m.) - The Terps aren't in very good shape when it comes to the NCAA Tournament, but if they want any chance they have to win this game. Miami has been playing better basketball, but is coming off a tough loss to Florida State.

North Carolina at Florida State (7:00 p.m.) - North Carolina has a great chance to end up with an ACC regular season title if they win their last two games. This one won't be easy, even without Chris Singleton. The Noles are probably in good shape for the tournament but will sew it up if they win this one.

Clemson at Duke (9:00 p.m.) - Clemson is also on a lot of first four out lists, and are in a tough position here, playing Duke in Cameron on Senior Day coming off a Duke loss. The Tigers have to hope Duke shoots poorly from 3 like they did against Virginia Tech if they have any chance.

Thursday:

Georgia Tech at Wake Forest (8:00 p.m.) - Not much interest in this game. These are right now the two worst teams in the conference. As poorly as Wake has been all year, they actually have a chance at a second conference win here.

I'll be back later in the week with a look ahead to the weekend.

2011-02-24T17:14:00.003-05:00

Weekend Preview

The regular season is drawing to a close, and time is running out for some teams to make their case for the NCAA Tournament. There are some crucial games this weekend for ACC teams. Right now the only guarantees are that Duke and UNC will be in the tournament. Florida State, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Clemson and Maryland all have chances. Georgia Tech, Virginia, Wake Forest, Miami and NC State do not (other than winning the ACC Tournament). Here are the weekend's games:

Saturday:

Boston College at Virginia (12:00 p.m.) - Boston College had a really bad loss at home on Wednesday night, losing to Miami in a game in which they were completely outplayed in the first half. They have to win this game on the road against a Virginia team that has not given up on the season. If BC loses this one, you can count them out.

Georgia Tech at NC State (2:00 p.m.) - Not a lot of interest in this one. Georgia Tech has now lost 7 games in a row and is really tanking in what will most likely be Paul Hewitt's last season. NC State is coming off a tough loss to rival UNC but is playing better and should win this one at home.

Miami at Florida State (2:00 p.m.) - Florida State is starting to slip a bit and really needs to win this game against a Miami team that is finally finishing off games. The Noles won at Miami earlier in the year and need to prove that they can play without Chris Singleton or they will be on the outside looking in.

Wake Forest at Clemson (4:00 p.m.) - There's not much to say about this one, other than the fact that it is an opportunity for Clemson to add to their ACC win total and improve their seeding in the conference. Clemson has an outside shot of getting into the tournament if they can finish the season strong.

Duke at Virginia Tech (9:00 p.m.) - The opportunity is there for the Hokies: the #1 team is coming into their building in what is really a must-win. It certainly isn't easy to beat Duke, but they are beatable. If the Hokies can win this one, they should be in the tournament. If not, the road becomes a lot tougher.

Sunday:

Maryland at UNC (7:45 p.m.) - This shapes up to be a great game. Maryland is playing good basketball right now, but needs to win every game they can to make it to the tournament. They have a tough assignment, though, against a UNC team that is gunning for an ACC regular season title.

2011-02-20T11:32:00.002-05:00

Analysis: VT vs. UVA

I made the trip up to Charlottesville Saturday to watch the VT/UVA game, so I thought I'd write about what I saw. First off, UVA won the game because they played it at their tempo. They wanted to keep the game in the 50s, and limit the transition game of Virginia Tech, and they did that.

Let's start with UVA on offense. Having watched Tony Bennett teams for several years, I know his style. And he worked it perfectly Saturday. UVA slowed the tempo down on each possession, working the clock down under 10 seconds just about every time. More often than not, they ended up taking a 3 with less than 5 on the shot clock. And fortunately for them, they made their shots. It's not like they were all wide-open spot on threes either. Many of them were off-balance, with people's hands in their face. UVA had the most success when they sent either Joe Harris or Sammy Zeglinski to the corner. They seemed to make almost every single one of those. It seemed like Virginia Tech didn't know what kind of defense to play either - they switched from man-to-man to a 2-3 zone multiple times. It was only their pressing defense that allowed them to fluster the UVA offense.

UVA makes their living on defense, and they played it pretty well against Virginia Tech. They allowed very few baskets on the interior. It seemed like everytime Jeff Allen touched the ball, it was around the 3-point line. They also limited transition baskets and did a very good job on the defensive glass. At the beginning of the game, Tech tried to force tempo, but they were very sloppy. Terrell Bell in particular had some very bad turnovers. Once they weren't able to play that transition game, they slowed it down to a pace that UVA wanted to play.

It's pretty clear what Tony Bennett is trying to do at UVA with the talent he has: slow the game down, limit the number of possessions, and make a living at the 3-point line. When they hit their threes, they can beat people. When they don't, they end up scoring 40 points like they did last week against Duke. Regardless, this is not a fun team for opponents to play.

For Virginia Tech, it's obviously frustrating. They had been playing with a lot of confidence, and building momentum toward an NCAA berth. It's one thing that UVA hit a bunch of crazy shots. It's another to only score 54 points (with at least 8 of those in catch-up time in the last minute).

After this loss, it's looking more and more clear that the season will hinge on next week's home game against Duke. Duke is not invincible, but they are a very solid team and it will take a team effort to beat them. Tech will have to get contributions from their bench players if they have any chance of winning. Take a look at the stats for the bench players in the last five games:

Manny Atkins - 3-20 from the field, 0-7 from 3
Jarell Eddie - 1-10 from the field, 0-5 from 3
Ty Garland - 1-11 from the field, 1-7 from 3

That's just not going to get it done.

2011-02-15T13:44:00.002-05:00

The Week Ahead

Time is running out for teams that want to make a move toward the NCAA Tournament. There are still a bunch of teams who can either play their way in or play their way out. This week isn't exactly chock full of big matchups, but there are plenty of games that teams can't afford to lose.
Here are the most important games:

Tuesday:
Maryland at Virginia Tech (8:00 p.m.) - Maryland is one or two losses away from being firmly off the bubble. A weekend loss to Boston College was killer. The Hokies are in decent shape for now, but losing this game certainly does not help their cause. Tech played very well up in College Park and will be carrying a lot of confidence into this game.

Wednesday:
Duke at Virginia (7:00 p.m.) - The only real interest in this game has to do with seeding. If Duke slips up on the road, that gives UNC (which is playing Wake) a chance for the conference title.

Thursday:
Clemson at NC State (7:00 p.m.) - The last time these two teams played, NC State burst out to a huge lead in the first half, only to blow it all away and lose by double digits. Clemson suffered a tough loss at home to UNC, and if they lose this game that will severely hurt their NCAA chances.

Saturday:
Virginia Tech at UVA (1:00 p.m.) - Virginia Tech fans remember what happened when these two teams played in Blacksburg. If the Hokies lose the Maryland game, this road win is a must.

Boston College at UNC (4:00 p.m.) - The first time these two played was pretty ugly. UNC won by 32 in Chestnut Hill. Boston College is in decent shape for the tournament now, but a win on the road would really help their cause. Don't think it's going to happen though.

Sunday:
Clemson at Miami (3:30 p.m.) - Clemson has a couple of sneaky tough road games this week. They haven't proved that they could win on the road so far this year. We'll know by this time next week if Clemson is for real.

2011-02-08T19:53:00.008-05:00

UNC/Duke Preview

It has been a huge game for decades - but this year's version of college basketball's best rivalry should bring us one of the best matchups in years. The Blue Devils and Tar Heels have been playing excellent basketball recently. Duke started off the year as the #1 team, lost one of their best players, and still has managed a 21-2 record. North Carolina started off the season with not terribly high expectations. But they have really turned it on, and have now compiled a 7-1 conference record.

So let's take a look at the matchup:

Duke can beat you many different ways. Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler came into the year with a lot of experience and loads of potential. They have been terrific, combining for 39 points per game. But it's much more than them: Andre Dawkins and Seth Curry can light it up from the bench. The Plumlee brothers provide the Devils with some inside presence. And Ryan Kelly has been a pleasant surprise. As has been the case for many years, Duke is reliant heavily on the 3. Dawkins, Curry and Kelly are all shooting at least 41% from 3-point land. Singler and Smith aren't bad either.

North Carolina has had a lot of change over the past 12 months,

culminating in last week's decision by Larry Drew II to leave the program. Truth be told, Drew wasn't the best point guard UNC has ever had, and they might be better without him. It's no coincidence that their improvement has come at the same time that much heralded freshman Harrison Barnes started scoring in bunches. Barnes has a great shooting touch for a forward, and if he can stop forcing it as much as he does he could be a superstar. John Henson is a freakish athlete who can be a shooter but has an even bigger impact on the defensive end. Kendall Marshall only scores 4.5 points per game but is a great distributor and a catalyst for the team.

So what separates these two teams? Honestly, probably the venue the game is being played in. Duke hasn't even come close to losing a game at Cameron over the last two years. It's almost impossible to keep them from going on one of those patented Duke runs, where they score 10 points in a row over a minute. That being said, North Carolina has a chance. If I were the Heels, I would focus on guarding the 3. Let Henson guard the post - he can handle the Plumlees. If you can get out and make Duke put up quick shots, you can win.

If I were Duke, I would focus on ball movement. Make the extra pass and force Carolina to defend you all over the court. Don't take quick shots. And on defense, I would force the Heels to make shots from the outside. Double Barnes if you need to, double Tyler Zeller if you need to, and leave guys like Marshall and Leslie McDonald open. They have had some good outside shooting games, but the majority of the time they do most of their damage on the inside.

My prediction: Duke wins a close one, 77-72.

2011-02-01T15:51:00.003-05:00

Week Preview

Another week is in the books, and some teams are starting to creep into contention, somewhat surprisingly. I'm talking specifically about Clemson and Maryland, who might be playing their way into tournament berths. Clemson got a come from behind win at home against NC State, and then blew out Florida State at home on Saturday. They still haven't shown an ability to win on the road, but seem to be putting things together under first year coach Brad Brownell.

Maryland has really improved since a blowout home loss to Virginia Tech, with wins over Clemson, at Virginia and at Georgia Tech. The last two were both by double digits. Maryland's big chance comes on Wednesday with a home game against Duke. Win that and they are most likely on the "in" side of the bubble. Here are the games on the ACC slate:

Tuesday:
Wake Forest at Florida State (7:00 p.m.) - If Florida State doesn't win this game they are in serious trouble. But it shouldn't be a problem.
UNC at Boston College (9:00 p.m.) - This is a good test for a Boston College team that has not looked very good in its last two games. UNC has improved and with a win here could be in very good shape for a top 4 finish in the league.

Wednesday:
Virginia Tech at NC State (7:00 p.m.) - The Hokies got a much-needed win against Miami and need to put the Georgia Tech game in the mirror with a road win against a NC State team that is really struggling right now. The Wolfpack's performance against UNC was terrible.
Clemson at UVA (9:00 p.m.) - This is a chance for Clemson to build its resume for the tournament. For UVA, they need a confidence boost after a bad loss at Wake Forest.
Duke at Maryland (9:00 p.m.) - As I said before, this is a huge opportunity for Maryland. Unfortunately for them, they are catching Duke at the wrong time, after the Devils lost in embarrassing fashion to St. John's.

Thursday:
Georgia Tech at Miami (7:00 p.m.) - Not a lot of interest in this game. Definitely a must-win for Miami after a series of really tough losses.

Saturday:
Clemson at Georgia Tech (1:00 p.m.) - The schedulers weren't kind to Georgia Tech this week. They have a very tough turnaround to an early game on Saturday. A good chance for Clemson to pick up a road win.
Virginia Tech at Boston College (1:00 p.m.) - Depending on how Tech's game with NC State goes, this could end up being a very big game for both teams. BC has been pretty good at home, in what is not a very intimidating home atmosphere.
Wake Forest at Maryland (1:00 p.m.) - I give Wake credit for winning this past weekend, but they aren't going to win games like this.
Virginia at Miami (2:00 p.m.) - The good news for the Hurricanes is you can't get a much easier week than what they have. The bad news is they sit at 1-6 in the conference.
NC State at Duke (6:00 p.m.) - If NC State plays up to its potential, they can stay with Duke, even at Cameron. If they play like they did in Chapel Hill last week, they will be blown out of the gym.

Sunday:
Florida State at UNC (2:00 p.m.) - The annual pre-Super Bowl ACC game is a good matchup. Florida State needs a good performance on the road, and may catch UNC looking ahead to their big game next week against Duke.

2011-01-21T13:26:00.003-05:00

ACC Standings: A Closer Look

Now that we are in the middle of the conference swing, I figured it's a good time to look at how the standings have shaken out so far. Of course at this point, schedules aren't created equal - for example every team that has played Wake Forest has an extra win in their column. But we are starting to see who may be a contender and who may be a pretender.

1. Duke - 4-1 ACC, 17-1 Overall
No big surprise that Duke is at the top of the standings. They have struggled a bit recently, however, losing to Florida State and winning fairly close games against Maryland and Virginia at home. The Devils did come back with a nice win at NC State earlier this week.

2. Boston College - 4-1 ACC, 14-5 Overall
People are continuing to underestimate what Boston College has done this year. This is a team that did not come with high expectations, but has been performing very well. Their conference slate hasn't been all that difficult so far, with home games against Virginia, Georgia Tech and NC State. We'll find much more about the Eagles in their next four games, with road dates against Florida State and Duke, then home games against North Carolina and Virginia Tech.

3. Florida State - 4-1 ACC, 14-5 Overall
The Seminoles hit a bit of a rough patch, with losses to Auburn and Virginia Tech, but have rebounded nicely. They picked up a big road win over Miami this week, and obviously have that huge win over Duke. The Noles are poised to finish in the top 4.

4. North Carolina - 3-1 ACC, 13-5 Overall
You have to feel a little uneasy if you are a Tar Heel fan right now. Yes, they are 3-1 in conference. But that 1 was a bad road loss by 20 points to Georgia Tech. They also barely beat Virginia Tech in a game they easily could have lost. And they won in the last minute against Virginia. UNC has a little time off before heading down to Miami but appear vulnerable right now.

5. Virginia Tech - 3-2 ACC, 12-5 Overall
The Hokies are really playing good basketball right now, with a huge road win over Maryland. They have won 8 of their last 9, with the only loss coming by 3 points in Chapel Hill. The early season home loss to Virginia hurts their position right now, but they look poised to move up the standings with a schedule that is pretty favorable.

6. Clemson - 2-2 ACC, 13-5 Overall
Clemson has been understandably an inconsistent team so far. They have had to work in a lot of new players and a brand new system. Most recently, their streak continued of never having won in Chapel Hill. So far Clemson has won their two home games and lost their two road games.

7. Georgia Tech - 2-2 ACC, 9-8 Overall
Georgia Tech is a bit of a surprise in this 7 spot, with a surge over the last week. The 20 point win over UNC is probably the head scratcher of the year. And then they followed it up with a 35 point win at home over Wake. The road has been a different story, with double digit losses to BC and Clemson. It's hard to think that they will be able to maintain this position in the standings.

8. Miami - 1-3 ACC, 12-6 Overall
It appears to be a repeat of last year for the Hurricanes, with a strong start to the season and then a series of losses in ACC play. The Canes would look a lot better if they had been able to hold serve at home against Florida State. But so far they have lost three of their first four conference games, with the only win a 1 point victory at home against BC.

9. NC State - 1-3 ACC, 11-7 Overall
No matter where you are, you can probably hear the rumblings coming from the Wolfpack fans. State appears to be underachieving yet again under Sidney Lowe. State lost its game of the year at home against Duke. The team has also lost on the road against Boston College and Florida State, with the lone win a home victory over Wake.

10. Maryland - 1-3 ACC, 11-7 Overall
Maryland had been competing pretty hard thus far this season, before running into a lot of trouble at home against the Hokies. In a game they had to win, the Terps lost by 17. Now they are sitting at 1-3 in conference, with two home losses. Like NC State, their only conference win is against Wake. Maryland has a stretch of winnable games ahead, and needs to turn it around.

11. Virginia - 1-3 ACC, 10-8 Overall
Virginia has been wildly inconsistent this year, and has not won a conference game in more than a month. They have played pretty well at times in games against Duke and UNC, but haven't been able to seal the deal. Most recently, they lost a 3 point game up at Boston College. The Cavs will have two home games in a row to try to gain back some confidence.

12. Wake Forest - 0-4 ACC, 7-12 Overall
What can you say about Wake Forest? They may be the worst ACC team I have ever seen. The Deacons have lost their ACC games by 21, 19, 29 and 35. Their next game is against Duke. There is a very real possibility that Wake could lose every game they play for the rest of the season.

2011-01-10T21:00:00.002-05:00

Weekend Thoughts

There weren't a lot of surprises in the ACC this past weekend. Still, there was plenty of compelling action.

Let's start in Durham, where Maryland gave Duke all it could handle. If there is a such thing as a moral victory, the Terps had it, staying right with the #1 Devils the whole game. Maryland used a very strong performance from Jordan Williams to spark them. Duke really struggled in their offense for most of the game before coming through with some free throws and clutch baskets down the stretch. It will be interesting to see if this is just an isolated incident for one game or will be a sign of things to come.

In Charlottesville, the Cavaliers played a very inconsistent game against UNC. Virginia played very well in the first half, hitting a lot of big shots and sparking what became a very good crowd. But in the second half, the shooting got very cold for UVA and they really struggled to score, only getting 19 points. You could just feel the air slowly suck out of the building as UNC creeped back in the game. The Heels definitely have some issues, and need to find an outside shooter, but at the end of the day they should be happy with a win.

Virginia Tech got a badly needed win at home over Florida State. The Hokies have been playing much better since they established their current lineup, and won by playing zone. Jeff Allen had a monster game, matching the game that Chris Singleton had. The difference was Virginia Tech had other players step up, and Florida State did not.

In other action, NC State got an expected win over Wake Forest. The Deacons continue to struggle. Boston College got a tougher than expected victory over Georgia Tech, not pulling away until late. And Clemson was able to win a home game that many thought Miami would pull out.

Here is the slate for the mid-week games. One note: the game between Georgia Tech and Clemson was moved from Tuesday to Wednesday because of weather.

Tuesday:
NC State at BC (9:00 p.m) - Good test for the Wolfpack.

Wednesday:
Georgia Tech at Clemson (7:00 p.m.) - Another opportunity for a home win for the Tigers.
Maryland at Wake Forest (8:00 p.m.) - Any letdown for the Terps?
Duke at Florida State (9:00 p.m.) - Game of the mid-week and one where Duke is vulnerable.

Thursday:
Virginia Tech at UNC (9:00 p.m.) - Can the Hokies' thin lineup hold up in Chapel Hill?

2011-01-08T09:29:00.002-05:00

Weekend Preview

Here we are, finally at the real start of the conference season. I'm sure a bunch of ACC teams are happy to get to conference play after having less than stellar non-conference seasons. There are plenty of big games this weekend, so let's get right to it:

UNC at UVA (Saturday, 12:00 p.m.)
UNC has impressed with its recent play, and UVA has not. The Tar Heels bring a lot of confidence in, and I think will benefit from a fairly sparse crowd at JPJ. UVA has struggled lately, but this young team has the ability to play well, so Carolina can't think of this one as a pushover.

Wake Forest at NC State (Saturday, 2:30 p.m.)
What a nightmare of a season it has been so far for Wake Forest. They open ACC play on the road against one of their Tobacco Road rivals. NC State hasn't been setting the world on fire, but should do enough at home to beat the Deacs.

Florida State at Virginia Tech (Saturday, 3:00 p.m.)
This is the game of the day in the conference. It is a game that Virginia Tech simply has to win, already losing a home game to UVA. Florida State is a tough matchup for them, with a lot of size. Although FSU is coming off a head-scratching loss to Auburn. If the Hokies can play well out of the gates, they can win this game.

Georgia Tech at Boston College (Saturday, 4:00 p.m.)
Boston College is coming off another disappointing loss to Harvard, but has played pretty well so far this year. Georgia Tech has been a horrible road team over the last couple years and will likely struggle to win this one.

Miami at Clemson (Saturday, 6:00 p.m.)
This is an intriguing matchup. Clemson is still trying to figure out Brad Brownell's system, and has had a few bumps on the road. If Miami can find a way to win at Littlejohn, they will be taken more seriously as a contender for an NCAA berth.

Maryland at Duke (Sunday, 8:00 p.m.)
This is being showcased as one of the games of the weekend nationally. I think most of the people who are doing that are doing so based on history. Because Duke is simply too good to get beat at home by a Maryland team that has struggled to score this year.

2011-01-05T20:26:00.002-05:00

NCAA Chances

Conference play is about to kick into high gear. And unfortunately for the ACC, that means time is running out to come up with showcase wins against teams from other conferences. This is a big part of where NCAA Tournament resumes are built. And so far this year, things haven't been going so well for the conference. There is no question the ACC is down. And that could be a problem when it comes to deciding who's in and who's out in March. So lets look at the chances each team has to make it to the Big Dance:

Boston College (11-3):
Boston College has played pretty well thus far. They have 3 losses on the season, to Yale, Wisconsin and Rhode Island. Only the Yale loss qualifies as a bad one. BC also has wins over Texas A&M, Cal, Providence, South Carolina (on the road), and a road victory in conference against Maryland. If they can keep this up they can be one of the teams in.
Chances: Good

Clemson (11-4):
Clemson has been up and down this year. Their only two quality wins are against Seton Hall and at College of Charleston. They have lost to the four best teams on their schedule, including on the road at Florida State. At this point, they would probably have to go 10-6 to get in.
Chances: Not good

Duke (13-0):
Duke is the number 1 team in the country, and has wins over Kansas State, Michigan State, Marquette and Butler. This is the only sure thing on this list.
Chances: Absolute lock

Florida State (11-4):
Florida State has been looking good for a while, but a loss to Auburn has taken a little of the shine off. They do have a solid win against Baylor. Their other losses are against Florida, Ohio State and Butler, all good teams. I think they will do enough in conference play to get in.
Chances: Good

Georgia Tech (7-6):
Here we get to the first of the sad cases in the ACC. Georgia Tech has wins over UTEP and Richmond. They have also lost to Kennesaw State, Siena and Charlotte. Not looking good for Paul Hewitt.
Chances: Slim

Maryland (10-4):
Maryland is going to be a tough call. Their best win is at Penn State. They have no bad losses, though, with the exception of maybe the home game against BC. Their conference schedule isn't easy, so I'm leaning out on this one.
Chances: 50/50

Miami (11-4):
Miami has had some good wins, against West Virginia and Mississippi. They have a bad 16 point loss at Rutgers. I don't see them performing well on the road this year. They will probably be on the outside looking in.
Chances: Not good

North Carolina (10-4):
UNC started the year off sluggishly, but has come on of late. They have a win over Kentucky that is looking better by the day. Their four losses are all against teams that should make the tournament. I think UNC will be there too.
Chances: Very good

N.C. State (9-4):
NC State hasn't shown much so far this year. Their best win is probably a neutral site win over George Mason. They have also lost to Arizona, Wisconsin, Syracuse and Georgetown. The Wolfpack has two games each against Duke and UNC. That does not equal success.
Chances: Not good

Virginia (10-5):
Virginia has been wildly inconsistent this year. They have road wins at Minnesota and Virginia Tech. But UVA has also lost home games to Seattle and Iowa State, and almost lost to Norfolk State. I don't think this is the year they make the tournament.
Chances: Slim

Virginia Tech (9-4):
The Hokies started out the season poorly, losing in every big game. They have won five in a row, beating Penn State, Mississippi State and St. Bonaventure (on the road) in the process. They've still got a shot to make it.
Chances: 50/50

Wake Forest (6-8):
Wake Forest has been nothing short of an embarrassment. They have lost four games in a row, and will be lucky to even see the .500 mark at any point the rest of the way.
Chances: None

2010-12-28T14:02:00.002-05:00

The Week Ahead

It's close to the end of 2010 and most teams are still on their Christmas break. There aren't many more games to close out the year, but there are a bunch of good matchups for the first weekend of 2011. Here's a preview of the week's best games:

North Carolina at Rutgers (Tuesday, 9:00 p.m.)
Rutgers isn't exactly a powerhouse, but they have already had a double digit win over Miami. They haven't matched up very well with UNC in recent years, though, and I don't expect the Heels to lose in New Jersey.

Boston College at Rhode Island (Wednesday, 7:00 p.m.)
The Eagles have played well so far this year, but have a tough matchup with Rhode Island. Hokie fans remember the Rams as the team that beat the Hokies in Blacksburg in the NIT last year.

Wake Forest at Richmond (Wednesday, 7:00 p.m.)
For a young team that has really struggled, this week could put them in full crisis mode. First comes a road game against a Richmond team that has already beaten Purdue. They did lose to Georgia Tech, though, so Wake could pull the surprise.

Boston College at South Carolina (Saturday, 5:30 p.m.)
Boston College has certainly scheduled a tough week. If they survive their road game against Rhode Island, they might be in for a letdown against a South Carolina team that isn't very strong but is still an SEC team.

Gonzaga at Wake Forest (Sunday, 1:00 p.m.)
Wake Forest had a big win last year when they went up to Spokane and shut down the Zags. This year Gonzaga is the team that is likely to come on the road and get the win. If Wake loses both games this week, you can bet the Deacon nation will be in an uproar over Dino Gaudio's firing.

LSU at Virginia (Sunday, 5:30 p.m.)
Virginia is trying to battle some confidence issues, coming off two poor performances in a row. They should be able to beat two BCS conference foes this week, playing Iowa State and LSU, both at home. LSU has struggled mightily since losing to UNC in the tournament a couple years ago.

Miami at Duke (Sunday, 7:45 p.m.)
The first ACC conference game of 2011 will likely be a blowout. This will be Duke's most competitive game playing without Kyrie Irving. But even without him, they are much better than Miami, especially at home.

2010-12-22T16:54:00.002-05:00

Pre-Christmas Games Preview

Most ACC teams are trying to get in one last game before Christmas, and some will need to guard against being tripped up by a mediocre team. It already happened once this week, with Wake losing at home against Presbyterian, and almost happened to Virginia, which escaped with a one point win over Norfolk State.

Here are a few games that should be on your radar:

Clemson at College of Charleston (Wednesday, 7:00 p.m.)
The College of Charleston already played Maryland tough in College Park and will be looking for a victory over an ACC team for the second straight year. Clemson is a better team than Charleston but don't be surprised if the home team wins this one.

Georgia Tech at Siena (Wednesday, 7:00 p.m.)
Siena isn't what it once was, with Coach Fran McCaffrey gone. But they are still a decent mid-major team and could present Georgia Tech with some problems up in New York.

Virginia Tech at St. Bonaventure (Thursday, 7:00 p.m.)
St. Bonaventure hasn't been relevant for several years, but is starting to play better and has a victory over St. Johns this year. They could catch Virginia Tech napping.

Florida State vs. TBA in Hawaii (Thursday)
The Seminoles are playing in the Diamond Head Classic in Hawaii, in a tournament that has a decent field. This second round game will likely be played against Butler, with a final round matchup coming Saturday against potentially Baylor.

2010-12-20T17:21:00.002-05:00

Weekend Recap

There were some good games this weekend, and I think we learned more about some of the teams in the ACC. Here are my impressions:

-UNC played well despite losing a virtual home game against Texas. It seems to me that the Heels are still trying to figure out their offensive identity with a lot of guys who do not have much game experience. If I were them, I'd keep getting the ball down low to Tyler Zeller. I am impressed by how much he has improved, and he has gotten to the point where he is almost unstoppable down low. They still need to figure out how best to use freshman Harrison Barnes.

-Miami had a golden opportunity to knock off a surprisingly good team in UCF but really struggled in the second half. They were up at halftime, but really unraveled down the stretch. Once they got behind, it seemed like they got in panic mode, not running any set offenses, but choosing to have one of their guards drive into the lane and throw up an off-balance shot. If they didn't get fouled, it was one and done and UCF took advantage.

-Virginia Tech may have turned the corner. They played their best game of the year against a Mississippi State team that is talented, albeit gassed after playing five games in a week. Still, even against a tired team, for the Hokies to win by 30 is quite a feat. If they can continue to get consistent production out of people like Erick Green and Victor Davila, they can make their goal of the NCAAs.

-NC State didn't take advantage of a game that really would have looked good on their resume had they'd won. Arizona is a solid team with some NBA caliber players. But playing at home, the Wolfpack should have been able to take care of business. Instead, they fell behind and only got into more of a hole. They were playing a very aggressive form of defense, which led to a lot of easy Arizona baskets.

-It was a good win for Georgia Tech down in the Bahamas. They were able to knock off a Richmond team that many people think is a lock for the NCAA Tournament. The Yellow Jackets were able to win by 13 despite playing much of the game without Iman Shumpert.

I'll be back later in the week with a look ahead at some decent non-conference matchups.

2010-12-16T17:17:00.002-05:00

The State of the ACC

As it's about a month into the season, it's a good time to look at how the ACC teams have been progressing thus far this year. So here is the status report:

Boston College (8-2)
The Eagles have surpassed expectations so far. They performed admirably in Orlando, beating a good Texas A&M squad and winning big over California. BC also has a very solid road win over Maryland and an underrated win at UMass. Steve Donahue has to be happy with how his first year has gone so far.

Clemson (5-4)
Clemson lost quite a bit from last year's team, and the transition to both new players and a new coach has been understandably tough. The Tigers have lost all of their games against good teams, with the best victory being against Seton Hall at a neutral site. The home loss to Michigan was disappointing, and they missed an opportunity down the stretch at Florida State.

Duke (10-0)
The Duke Blue Devils have done what everyone expected them to do: win, win, win. They have played a pretty impressive schedule, and have racked up wins against Kansas State, Michigan State, Butler and Marquette. Most of their games have been blowouts. There is some cause for concern with Kyrie Irving's injury, but even if he is out for the year they should be in good shape.

Florida State (8-2)
Florida State has a decent record thus far, but it still feels as if they haven't played up to their potential. The Seminoles have lost two games, both against ranked teams, but they were both at home. In those games, they only scored a combined 95 points. Florida State's best non-conference win is hard to pick out - perhaps a 23 point win at Florida International.

Georgia Tech (5-4)
The Yellow Jackets are another team that has underperformed so far. They started out the year by losing their second game, a 17 point loss at Kennesaw State. Georgia Tech had a good win in Atlantic City over UTEP, but followed that up with three straight losses, including a home loss to rival Georgia. They appear to be one of the weaker teams in the ACC.

Maryland (7-4)
Maryland has shown promise at times this year, despite being very young. I think they are on pace for a solid year, given Gary Williams' track record. The Terps played well in New York, despite losing two games to Pitt and Illinois. They did blow out Penn State on the road, but lost to Temple and at home to Boston College. The jury is still out on Maryland.

Miami (7-2)
Miami has flown under the radar at the start of the year, much as they did last year. They have played decently well this year, with the exception of a 16 point loss to Rutgers. The Canes have two decent home wins, against Ole Miss and West Virginia, but other than that have not been tested. They don't play another road game until January 2nd at Duke.

North Carolina (7-3)
The Tar Heels have taken some time to come into their own. Along the way, they struggled to losses against Minnesota and Vanderbilt. UNC also had a loss at Illinois which wasn't very close. But UNC has put together a good win against Kentucky and appears to be picking up steam with a matchup at Texas up next.

N.C. State (5-3)
The high expectations for NC State this year haven't seemed to filter down to the team yet. The Wolfpack played horribly against Wisconsin and got blown out at a neutral site by Georgetown. Their best win is against George Mason. With a game against Arizona upcoming, NC State needs to get things together. Getting Tracy Smith back would help.

Virginia (6-3)
Virginia has been one of the few teams in the ACC that could be counted as a surprise. The Cavaliers started the season off as most people expected: blowout losses to Stanford and Washington. But they rebounded to beat Oklahoma by 18 and have since piled up road wins against Minnesota and Virginia Tech. The Cavaliers look to be a force to be reckoned with this year.

Virginia Tech (5-4)
It would definitely be fair to say the Hokies have been a disappointment. Their early season struggles have been well documented (including in this blog). The only loss that could be counted as a bad loss was their home defeat to Virginia, but they really should have beaten Purdue. The best win so far is a neutral site victory over Oklahoma State, with a chance at a better one this weekend against Mississippi State.

Wake Forest (6-4)
Wake Forest's record isn't much different from many other teams, but they are clearly the worst team in the ACC. They have already lost to Stetson, VCU, Winthrop and UNC Wilmington, with the first three being at home. In their last game, they won at home by only two points to a UNC Greensboro team that hasn't won a game this season. In fact, UNC Greensboro's previous best loss was by 12 points to NC A&T. Not good in Winston Salem.

To recap, a lot of the ACC teams have some work to do to earn respectability for the conference. Most years, there would be a lot of teams with no more than two losses. Right now, 8 of the 12 teams have at least 3 losses. And time is running out to pile up the non-conference wins.

2010-12-13T17:23:00.002-05:00

The Week Ahead

We aren't even halfway into December, and three conference games are already in the books. I've got to hand it to Boston College - they had the most impressive performance of the weekend. BC was able to go to Maryland and win a shootout, playing much better than the home team down the stretch. Of the three new coaches, Steve Donahue inherited the team with the most returning talent. But he has still done a fine job so far. For Maryland, this is not a good loss. I am fairly confident they will be able to turn it around, though.

In the other conference game, Florida State was able to outlast Clemson. For years this was the game between the two worst teams in the conference, and I think there is still not much national interest for this matchup. This game was marked by a bunch of missed layups and dunks. But in the end, Florida State got the win they were expected to get.

This is another week where teams are on their exam break, so not much action. But here are the marquee games worth looking out for:

Oregon at UVA (Friday, 8:00 p.m.)
After spending a long time on the road, UVA is home for the rest of the year. This is notable because they are hosting a BCS foe, but Oregon doesn't have a lot of firepower and has to travel across the country. UVA should win this one.

Texas vs. UNC (Saturday, 4:00 p.m. in Greensboro)
This made for TV matchup should be a virtual home crowd for the Heels. They got one solid win over Kentucky and will be looking to build a little momentum. Texas is a bit of an enigma, playing well in New York but losing badly on the road at Southern Cal.

Georgia Tech vs. Richmond (Saturday, 5:00 p.m. in the Bahamas)
This is game one of the Battle at Atlantis, and is a tough matchup for the Yellow Jackets. Richmond is considered a team on the rise and already has a neutral site win over Purdue to its credit. The Jackets are coming off a tough loss at home to rival Georgia and could use a boost.

Virginia Tech vs. Mississippi State (Saturday, 8:00 p.m. in the Bahamas)
The second game of the Battle at Atlantis features two teams who really want to get back to the NCAA Tournament. The Hokies got a nice win over Penn State but have still underachieved. Mississippi State will be looking to get back to full strength with Renardo Sidney returning to the team.

Wake Forest at Xavier (Saturday, 8:00 p.m.)
Wake Forest has really struggled in the early going this year, and their schedule is not getting any easier. A trip to Xavier will be a tough test for Jeff Bzdelik's crew. Thus far Wake's best win is a home win over Iowa. Keeping the Xavier game close will probably be a victory for the Deacs.

Arizona at N.C. State (Sunday, 4:30 p.m.)
This is a rematch of a very competitive game from last year. The Wolfpack have a lot of promise but have yet to deliver with a big win, losing all three of their games against BCS conference opponents. Arizona is expected to contend for an NCAA berth this year, and would be a good win for the Pack.

2010-12-08T20:55:00.004-05:00

What's Wrong with the Hokies?

Since there aren't many games going on this week, that gives me a little time to devote to a topic near and dear to my heart: the Hokie basketball team. I have seen the team come a long way since I started following it in 2002. I really thought that the Hokies would never make the tournament again after their last appearance in 1996. But they managed to grow the program to where it has at least earned respectability.

All that being said, this season came in with as high expectations as I'd ever seen for the Hokies. And with a 4-4 record to date, there has been much groveling and complaining and jumping off the bandwagon. So it begs the question: what's wrong?

The main reason I can point to is chemistry. The guys on the floor don't seem to have the same level of trust that they had last year. And that is puzzling, considering it is the same five guys out there. They aren't moving the ball on offense and working together to generate turnovers on defense. On a 3 and 1 break, the ball handler will shoot a contested shot rather than pass to the open man. When guys are getting screened on defense, another defender is not helping out to pick up the open man. And I could go on and on. The team just doesn't look like it's playing together. It has in moments this season: like the last 5 minutes against Oklahoma State and the second half against UVA.

Another problem: the inability to come through down the stretch. The times that the Hokies have performed well in the past have been when they have been able to take over the last few minutes of a game to close out the other team. They did this nicely against Oklahoma State. But against Purdue, they had a four point lead and the Boilermakers on the ropes. But they didn't seem to know what to do with the ball in the last couple minutes and lost. Against UVA, they had chances to tie or take the lead and really deal a knockout blow, but didn't.

You can point to one player in one game and say "Well Malcolm played poorly" or "Dorenzo had a bad game." But good players are going to have bad games. It happens all the time. Good teams are able to win despite this. Their other players (who aren't slouches - they are scholarship athletes at an ACC school) pick up the slack. This has also been lacking.

The last reason I will point to is the sheer lack of manpower. Allan Chaney went out, then J.T. Thompson - both before the season. Cadarian Raines missed a significant amount of time. And just this week, Ben Boggs announced he will transfer. That leaves 10 scholarship players. If Raines has to miss a lot more time, that number is down to 9. Nine scholarship players is practically unheard of - a lot of teams have 13! It is very difficult to win with that lack of depth, and getting no spark off the bench.

One last point: there has been a lot of criticism of Seth Greenberg on Virginia Tech message boards. I don't know whether Seth is the problem or not. All I know is that his coaching move at the end of the Oklahoma State game single handedly won the game. He has talked about players needing to be more about the team than themselves - is that coaching? Maybe. Maybe Seth Greenberg has hit his ceiling as a coach and the Hokies need another coach to take that next step. But you better believe he is working his heart out to try to come up with a fix.

The good news is, there is plenty of time. The Hokies have 15 more conference games to play, many against teams with inferior talent. They can get out of their funk. But the road back starts with the next game.

2010-12-06T17:30:00.002-05:00

Weekend Recap

It was a pretty good weekend for the ACC, with some key wins against non-conference foes.

Let's start in Chapel Hill, where UNC got a much needed win against Kentucky. The Tar Heels have had the Wildcats' number in recent years, and needed this confidence builder. Neither team really got it done on the offensive end, especially late in the game. But Tyler Zeller knocked down some big free throws down the stretch.

Butler played their butts off to a first half draw in a rematch of the NCAA Championship game against Duke. I don't know if it was a hangover from their game against Michigan State or more about what Butler did, but Duke struggled more in that first half than they have all year. That being said, they were still able to win by 12.

Miami got a huge win over West Virginia. The Hurricanes also needed a confidence boost after struggling some in November, and beating the Mountaineers is a good step forward.

NC State held tough against Syracuse, leading late in the game, only to see things slip away. I'm not sure if Wolfpack fans will be heartened by their improved effort or disappointed because of the loss. Either way, NC State has some work to do before conference play starts.

Clemson lost a tough battle against its biggest rival, South Carolina. The Tigers have been struggling some in the early season as well, and look like they will endure some growing pains in the first year under Brad Brownell.

Virginia continued its strong play of late with a road upset of Virginia Tech. The Cavaliers came out hot in the first half, and held onto their 12 point halftime lead. This speaks a lot to the resiliency of Tony Bennett and the Cavs after their tough stretch a couple weeks ago. For Virginia Tech, there are a lot more questions than answers. They seem to lack chemistry, and need to get things together quickly or it will be a very disappointing season.

Maryland strugged offensively against a tough Temple team, trailing by double digits at one point at the BB&T Classic. They were able to make a game of it, losing by 3, but they have to think this loss was a missed opportunity.

The schedule dries up a little bit this week as some teams go on a break for exams. There are only two games of note during the week:

Tuesday: Georgia at Georgia Tech (7:00 p.m.)
Wednesday: Providence at Boston College (7:00 p.m.)

2010-12-03T16:55:00.003-05:00

Challenge Winners & Losers

Another ACC/Big Ten Challenge is in the books and for the second straight year, the Big Ten won. The ACC did manage to make it competitive on Wednesday, losing by a narrow 6-5 margin. So let's take a look back at the winners and losers.

Winners

Virginia - Virginia pulled off the biggest surprise of the challenge, with a huge road win at Minnesota. The way the Cavaliers had played thus far this year, no one thought they could win going away against a Gophers team predicted to finish in the top 25. This could be a big momentum builder for them.

Northwestern - The Wildcats have never made it to the NCAA Tournament, and are hoping this will be the year. They blasted Georgia Tech at home, scoring at will. This is a good sign for a team hoping to take that next step.

Michigan - The Wolverines came up with a big road win against Clemson. Michigan has been a much improved team since John Beilein took over, and looks to make the NCAA Tournament again this year.

Maryland - The Terps started out slowly against Penn State, but ended up winning by 23. Penn State isn't the strongest team, but beating any Big Ten team by 23 points on the road gets you in the winners column.

Losers

NC State - What happened, Sidney Lowe? There is no shame in losing at Wisconsin. But losing by 39 points, with a second half that was completely meaningless, is pretty sad. State only scored 48 points and gave up 87 to a team that usually plays in the 50s.

Virginia Tech - The Hokies played much better in their Big Ten game against Purdue, and really should have won. But mistakes down the stretch meant another loss and another missed opportunity in the non-conference. Fans will have to tone down their expectations for this season.

Florida State - Ohio State is an impressive team, but Florida State has made a living in recent years out of beating higher ranked teams at home. They have been pretty disappointing so far this year.

Iowa - The Hawkeyes had Wake Forest on the ropes in Winston-Salem but let them off the hook, giving up a late 3. Iowa isn't going anywhere this year but this would have been a good win for them.

This weekend is full of very strong matchups. Among the highlights: UNC vs. Kentucky, Duke vs. Butler, West Virginia at Miami, Maryland vs. Temple, and the first conference game of the year: UVA at Virginia Tech. A full recap of those games is coming up on Monday.

2010-11-29T15:41:00.004-05:00

ACC/Big Ten Challenge Preview

The first week in December means it's time for the annual ACC/Big Ten Challenge. Last year, the Big Ten won the challenge for the first time, and many people think that the Big Ten is the best conference. So does that mean they will win it again this year? Let's take a look at the games.

Virginia at Minnesota (Monday, 7:00 p.m.)
Minnesota has been a solid team thus far this year, already knocking off UNC in Puerto Rico. Virginia has been tested in this early season, and is playing a little better. But they are still a wildly inconsistent team. It's hard to see them going up to Minnesota and winning.
Pick: Minnesota

Georgia Tech at Northwestern (Tuesday, 7:00 p.m.)
Georgia Tech had a good showing in Atlantic City, beating UTEP and losing by just 4 to Syracuse. But they also have a loss to Kennesaw State already this year. Northwestern hasn't really done much of anything thus far this year. I'll take the Jackets to pull off the upset.
Pick: Georgia Tech

Iowa at Wake Forest (Tuesday, 7:00 p.m.)
This has to be the least compelling matchup of the challenge. Both teams have struggled so far this season, and aren't expected to go far from the cellar in their leagues. I will go with the more experienced team.
Pick: Iowa

Ohio State at Florida State (Tuesday, 7:30 p.m.)
Ohio State has one of the best wins of the year, winning going away at Florida. By contrast, Florida State just lost a home game to the same Florida team. The Seminoles will be good this year but not at the same level as the Buckeyes.
Pick: Ohio State

Michigan at Clemson (Tuesday, 9:00 p.m.)
Michigan hasn't had much to show for their season so far, losing the only two challenging games they've had. Clemson has struggled some early as well, and it's hard to forget how they performed in last year's challenge, blowing a huge lead against Illinois. But I'll still go with the home team in this one.
Pick: Clemson

North Carolina at Illinois (Tuesday, 9:30 p.m.)
Tuesday's marquee game features a North Carolina team that has had some trouble establishing its identity in the early season. With a game coming up soon against Kentucky, they could use a win like this. Illinois has played well in the early going, and is expected to be a Sweet 16 level team.
Pick: Illinois

Indiana at Boston College (Wednesday, 7:15 p.m.)
I sympathize with what Tom Crean is going through at Indiana - a long rebuilding process after Kelvin Sampson left a gaping hole in the program. Boston College had a very solid Old Spice Tournament. I like the Eagles at home.
Pick: Boston College

NC State at Wisconsin (Wednesday, 7:15 p.m.)
Big things are expected of the Wolfpack this year. If they are to live up to them, going up to Wisconsin and winning would be a big step in the right direction. Unfortunately, the Badgers are almost impossible to beat in Madison, and have another solid team this year.
Pick: Wisconsin

Purdue at Virginia Tech (Wednesday, 7:30 p.m.)
In somewhat of a surprise, Purdue suffered a setback against Richmond, losing by 11. They are still trying to adjust to life without Robbie Hummel. Virginia Tech has been playing good defense but hasn't really established an offensive identity. They are turning it over too much, and something just seems to be missing right now. Purdue is just the type of team that can give the Hokies fits.
Pick: Purdue

Maryland at Penn State (Wednesday, 9:15 p.m.)
Maryland is another team trying to integrate a bunch of young players, and they have played well at times. Penn State took a big step backward last year, and hasn't shown yet this year that they can win games against good teams, losing their only game against quality competition. I expect the Terps to win a tough one on the road.
Pick: Maryland

Michigan State at Duke (Wednesday, 9:30 p.m.)
Michigan State is a fine team and I fully expect Tom Izzo to get the most out of his guys in March. But they struggled against UConn in Maui, and last year got creamed in their Big Ten Challenge game in Chapel Hill. I don't expect them to do any better this year against Duke. They could lose by 25.
Pick: Duke

By my count, that's a 6-5 Big Ten win. But we'll see how things shake out.