It's All Over

The season is now over for all of the ACC teams, with North Carolina going down to Kansas on Sunday.  It's hard to fault the Tar Heels much for their performance against the Jayhawks.  The first half was a riveting offensive display, with both teams making play after play.  James Michael McAdoo in particular was a standout.  But you felt like Carolina was just hanging on at times, and that showed up in the last few minutes of the game, when Kansas seized control.  The Tar Heels could not make plays down the stretch, and saw their season come to a close.

Injuries were certainly a big factor.  Besides Kendall Marshall, it was pretty obvious that John Henson was not at 100%.  This team just did not have any depth at guard.  As much as people give credit to Stilman White for stepping in and playing well, he is not an offensive threat, so it's basically 4 on 5 when he's in there.

North Carolina was certainly a favorite to win the national title coming into the year.  With the emergence of Kentucky, before the injuries they were not as much of a favorite.  But you'd have to think anything less than a title is being treated as a disappointment.  It will be interesting to see now who decides to leave and go pro, and who decides to stay in school.

NCAA Tournament Update

We're down to one team left from the ACC in the final 8 of the NCAA Tournament.  Let's start with N.C. State, which had a valiant effort against Kansas but just couldn't get it done in the last minute.  A common theme throughout the Sweet 16 games was the inability of the underdog to score inside.  That plagued Wisconsin, Ohio and N.C. State, and left those teams trying to make a lot of threes to stay in it.  The Wolfpack looked down and out, but managed to scrape back in it in the last few minutes.  It was the inability to execute down the stretch, though, that doomed them.

Down by one, Scott Wood took a quick three that missed, and then C.J. Leslie rushed a drive to the basket.  N.C. State had plenty of time, but seemed a little scattered on that possession.  Believe it or not, they had a good chance still even down by 3 with 2.9 seconds left.  If Richard Howell had been able to see Wood and recognize that he was wide open for the tying three, he should have passed it to Wood instead of throwing up a heave that was not even close.  Still, you have to applaud Mark Gottfried for what he did this year.  Going from a borderline NIT quality team for 5 years to winning two games in the NCAA Tournament is a big jump.

Alright, now let's turn to North Carolina.  Anyone who has the Tar Heels winning it all in their bracket has to feel a little nervous.  The Heels didn't look like nearly the same team they did against Creighton without Kendall Marshall.  They looked lost at times on offense, and even though Stillman White didn't have any turnovers, he was invisible.  Carolina was very close to losing this game.

Paging Harrison Barnes!  Where are you?  Barnes is supposed to be a potential top draft pick in the NBA, and carry the offensive load with Marshall out.  Instead, he went 3-16 and scored 12 points (4 of those at the line).  Barnes has got to step it up if the Tar Heels want to beat Kansas.  The Jayhawks didn't exactly play the best against N.C. State, but they have much more talent than Ohio.  Ohio shot 32% and got out-rebounded by 30 and still got to overtime against the Heels.  That being said, North Carolina still has enough talent to beat Kansas, even without Marshall.  But the other players must play better than they did on Friday to make it to the Final Four.

Finally, a note about Wake Forest.  In the early part of 2009, Wake was the #1 ranked team in the country.  Just three years later, they are a complete mess. Wake has gone through an 8 win and a 13 win season the last two years.  And now, in the last couple days, three players announced they were leaving the program.  That includes two starters: Tony Chennault and Carson Desrosiers.  Chennault was the team's third leading scorer.  Desrosiers was a much needed big man who blocked 1.9 shots per game.  Maybe Jeff Bzdelik knows what he's doing.  But a bad team can't afford to have players leaving left and right.  It could get very ugly very soon in Winston-Salem.

NCAA Tournament Thoughts

The second week of March Madness is almost here, and two ACC teams are left standing.  A month ago no one would have guessed that one of those two would be N.C. State.  The Wolfpack have put together a nice run in the last couple weeks.  The issue in previous years has not been talent: they have had a lot of solid players.  But now paired with a solid coach they are achieving.  State did get a pretty favorable draw.  As an 11 seed, they played probably the weakest 6 seed in the field in San Diego State.  And then they played a solid team in Georgetown, but one that has been prone to early exits from the tournament.

Friday N.C. State will take on Kansas, which will certainly be a tough matchup.  State fans have to be upset that Purdue couldn't finish off the Jayhawks.  Purdue would have been a much better matchup.  The key for the Wolfpack is finding a way to defend Thomas Robinson without picking up a lot of fouls.  They cannot have C.J. Leslie or Richard Howell on the bench for extended periods of time and hope to win.

On the other side of the Midwest bracket is North Carolina.  No team has had more discussion around it in the last few days than the Tar Heels.  Kendall Marshall hurt his right wrist in the game against Creighton, although nobody saw it during the game.  What happens with Marshall will certainly have a big impact on how far Carolina can go.  At times they looked like the best team in the country against the Tar Heels.  But they just don't have any depth at the point guard position.  Stillman White playing 35 minutes will not lead to success, even with the frontcourt tandem that they have.  Now, I do think even if Marshall cannot play against Ohio they should be able to beat the Bobcats without much problem.  But if the Elite 8 matchup is North Carolina against Kansas, Tar Heel fans better hope Kendall is as healthy as possible.

One last word about Florida State: the Seminoles have to be disappointed about what took place last weekend.  It's only natural to compare this season to last season.  So after a great run in the ACC and ACC Tournament, fans were expecting at least a Sweet 16 run.  But the Seminoles never really got into their groove in the NCAAs.  They looked underwhelming against St. Bonaventure, a team they should have beaten by double digits.  And they had more talent than Cincinnati.  (Full disclosure: I didn't get to see much of the FSU/Cincy game, it started way too late for a Sunday night.  And the Sweet 16 games are getting later and later.  The late games might not tip off until 10:30 or so.)

You wonder if FSU has hit its peak.  Many of their key players are seniors, and there is talk that Leonard Hamilton may bolt for Illinois.  Expect them to at least take one step down next year.

NCAA Tournament Preview: Second Round


It was a tough day for the ACC in a very wacky Friday in the NCAA Tournament.  Of course, the headliner was Duke's loss to Lehigh, one of the biggest upsets in the history of the tournament.  Something just hasn't looked right with the Blue Devils in the last three weeks or so (even before they lost Ryan Kelly), and they ran up against a team with a lot of confidence.  Austin Rivers and Seth Curry did not play well in this game, and that's a recipe for disaster.


The ACC's other victim was Virginia, which picked a bad time to turn in its worst performance of the year.  They were in the game early because Florida kept taking and missing 3s.  But the second half was a complete beatdown.  Florida State almost suffered the same fate as Duke, but survived a serious scare from St. Bonaventure.  The Bonnies were leading almost the entire game, but as they've done all season, Florida State came through with big plays at the end of a game.


N.C. State looked like a team that deserved to be in the tournament with their performance against San Diego State.  Richard Howell played his best game of the year, and the Wolfpack methodically grew their lead in the second half.  They looked like the better team.  Their rival North Carolina didn't look all that sharp but still won fairly easily against Vermont.  John Henson sat this one out.


Here's the schedule of Sunday games for the ACC teams:


#3 Georgetown vs. #11 N.C. State (12:15 p.m.)


Many people (including myself) picked Georgetown as an upset victim to Belmont in the first round.  The Hoyas dismissed that notion, scoring a pretty easy win.  Georgetown will be a tough matchup for N.C. State.  They are a disciplined team and very tough defensively.  If the Wolfpack can get more out of Scott Wood than they did in their last game, they have a good shot.


#1 North Carolina vs. #8 Creighton (5:15 p.m.)


The buzz in this game is the matchup between former high school teammates Harrison Barnes and Doug McDermott.  Both of these teams love to get out and run, and will put 80 on you in a hurry.  Creighton has the shooters to stay with North Carolina, but I have to believe that the length of the Heels will wear them down.  If the refs are calling the game tight, you could see a lot of foul trouble for the Blue Jays and an easy Tar Heel win.


#3 Florida State vs. #6 Cincinnati (9:40 p.m.)


This might be the best matchup on Sunday.  Cincinnati had a very bizarre game against Texas, in which they held the Longhorns to 17 points in the first half but had to hold off a huge comeback.  The Bearcats have shown the ability to knock off good teams, most recently in the Big East Tournament against Syracuse.  If Florida State wants to win this one, they have to play better defensively than they did against St. Bonaventure.

NCAA Tournament Preview: First Round

First off, yes I know that technically it's called the second round.  But I will continue to call the games on Tuesday and Wednesday the play-in round, and Thursday and Friday's games the first round.  I think most people are with me.  Interestingly enough, all five ACC teams in the field are playing on Friday.  So keep your clickers handy.  Here are the matchups:

#6 San Diego State vs. #11 N.C. State (12:40 p.m.)

A lot of people are favoring the Wolfpack in this matchup.  San Diego State wasn't expected to do much this year, coming off a year in which they had a #2 seed and got to the Sweet 16.  They lost their main players from last year's team to graduation.  But Steve Fisher is a terrific coach, and was able to get this team to overachieve.  They did slide a little bit towards the end of the season, but still ended up with a very nice 26-7 record.  N.C. State may be peaking at the end of the season, and comes in with a lot of confidence.  Interestingly, in the 9 categories that CBS Sports features in this matchup, San Diego State only ranks better in one category (rebounding).

#7 Florida vs. #10 Virginia (2:10 p.m.)

The Cavaliers stumbled a bit at the end of the season, but have a chance at a fresh start here.  They have a tough matchup against a Florida team that at one point was ranked in the Top 10.  Florida is a high scoring offense and heavily reliant on the 3.  They average 76 points per game, compared to Virginia's 63 points per game.  That being said, if the Cavaliers can shut down the outside shooting, they can turn this into the type of game that they want.  If I were Florida I would double Mike Scott in the low post and force either Sammy Zeglinski or Joe Harris to beat them.

#3 Florida State vs. #14 St. Bonaventure (2:45 p.m.)

Florida State is a trendy pick to make the Final Four, especially since Syracuse has one of its best players (Fab Melo) out for the rest of the season.  First they will have to deal with St. Bonaventure, which is coming off a surprising Atlantic 10 Tournament title.  The Bonnies have really come from the depths of a program coming off sanctions to respectability.  That is thanks in large part to Andrew Nicholson, who is projected to end up in the NBA.  Shut him down, and Florida State has the length to do it, and you can beat them.

#1 North Carolina vs. #16 Lamar/Vermont (4:10 p.m.)

The Tar Heels await the result of Wednesday night's play-in game to find out who they will face.  One possibility is Lamar, a team coached by Bob Knight's son Pat.  They are most noticeable for a rant that Knight had earlier this year, ripping his seniors.  Vermont is a more recognizable program, but are not nearly what they were under Tom Brennan.  North Carolina should be able to sit John Henson if they want to and still win this game by 30 points.

#2 Duke vs. #15 Lehigh (7:15 p.m.)

Duke will look to get off to a good start with an easy win in their first game.  They will take on Lehigh, a team out of the Patriot League with a solid 26-7 record.  Lehigh went 11-3 in conference, and played Michigan State to a 9 point game early in the season.  I don't expect Duke to struggle with them, but they certainly want Ryan Kelly to be healthy for them to be able to make a run in the tournament.

News and Notes

First off, I've got to hand it to Florida State.  I think they took a big step forward as a program this week, knocking off both Duke and North Carolina on their way to an ACC Tournament title.  The Seminoles have major momentum going into the NCAA Tournament.  And they have the formula to beating Carolina.  Beating the Tar Heels twice is pretty impressive.

The other big news from Selection Sunday, of course, is who got in and who didn't.  Between the NCAA and the NIT, only six of the twelve teams in the ACC will be continuing their season.  N.C. State fans were on pins and needles as they were the last team revealed in the bracket.  You have to wonder if Miami didn't have eligibility issues with Durand Scott, if they would have made it into the NCAA field.  My inclination is no.  But regardless, they will be in the NIT.  Here are the postseason matchups:

NCAA:

#1 North Carolina vs. #16 Lamar/Vermont (Friday)
#2 Duke vs. #15 Lehigh (Friday)
#3 Florida State vs. #14 St. Bonaventure (Friday)
#10 Virginia vs. #7 Florida (Friday)
#11 N.C. State vs. #6 San Diego State (Friday)

NIT:

#7 Valparaiso at #2 Miami (Wednesday)

I'll be back with a preview of these games later this week.

ACC Tournament Preview: Final


You can't ask for much more from a semifinal Saturday than what we got in the ACC.  Two games that came down to the final buzzer.  N.C. State fans will probably still be grumpy today after a controversial ending to yesterday's game against Carolina.  Kendall Marshall's basket that put the Heels ahead could have come with a charge call, but the refs let it go.  In my opinion, the refs had to call something.  With that much contact, you have to blow the whistle and make a call one way or the other.  Anyway, the Heels move on and the Wolfpack sit and wait to see if they are in the NCAA Tournament.  This reminds me of what happened to Virginia Tech a few years ago, when they lost to Tyler Hansbrough and the Heels at the buzzer and then were left out of the Big Dance.


The other semifinal was an interesting game between Duke and Florida State.  There aren't many games in the ACC Tournament that I can remember where it felt like Duke was the underdog, like this one.  Florida State seemed to be in control for much of the game, but Duke still had a chance.  Austin Rivers took a very ill-advised shot at the end and Florida State survived what is one of the worst inbounds passes I've ever seen.


#1 North Carolina vs. #3 Florida State (1:00 p.m.)


That sets up a great matchup for the ACC Tournament finals.  Everyone knows what happened the first time these two teams played.  And whatever happens today, I can say with certainty that Florida State will not win by 33 points again.  This stat baffles my mind: since 1997, there has only been one season where North Carolina or Duke didn't win the ACC Tournament.  That was Maryland in 2004.  That means out of the 12 teams in the league, the same two schools have won 14 out of 15 titles (Duke has 10, North Carolina 4).  No other conference has even close to the same dominance by two schools.


It's been mentioned a few times on the broadcast this week, but Florida State has to feel like, if there's any year that they have a chance of winning an ACC Tournament title, this is it.  They have a balanced offense to go with their suffocating defense.  And they've already beaten Carolina.  Plus John Henson may not play.  However, even without John Henson, Carolina clearly has more talent.  Harrison Barnes, Tyler Zeller and Kendall Marshall are all better than the best player on Florida State.  And you have to think Roy Williams has hammered home how embarrassing that loss was in Tallahassee.  I think the better talent shines through and the Tar Heels cut down the nets.
Pick: North Carolina

ACC Tournament Preview: Semifinals


#1 North Carolina vs. #5 N.C. State (1:00 p.m.)


North Carolina didn't have much trouble with Maryland.  The only problem they had was the wrist injury to John Henson, which could prove problematic down the line.  N.C. State played well in getting a much needed win over Virginia.  They are riding high and believe they can knock off the Heels.  However, N.C. State does not have a good history against their hated rivals this year, losing big both times they played.  If State can get three point production from someone other than Scott Wood, they have a chance.  Otherwise it will be another double digit win for North Carolina.
Pick: North Carolina




#2 Duke vs. #3 Florida State (3:30 p.m.)


Duke had a surprisingly poor performance on Friday against Virginia Tech, needing some big threes from Tyler Thornton of all people to escape with a four point win.  Florida State played pretty well for the most part in a win against their rival Miami, getting good contributions from a bunch of different guys.  In the regular season, each team won at the other's gym.  If you look at this game based solely on how each team played yesterday, you'd have to give the edge to Florida State.  But I think Duke will come out more fired up with the chance at a rematch with North Carolina.  The Blue Devils find a way to win at the end.
Pick: Duke

ACC Tournament Preview: Quarterfinals


#1 UNC vs. #8 Maryland (12:00 p.m.)


Maryland let Wake hang around for about a half before blowing them out in the second half.  They played with confidence, and have some good talent for the future.  But playing UNC is a completely different animal.  The size of the Heels towers over Maryland.  I see Tyler Zeller and John Henson having big games, and UNC should win by 20 points.  The only chance that Maryland has is if UNC comes out as uninspired as they did in last year's ACC Tournament.
Pick: UNC




#4 UVA vs. #5 N.C. State (2:30 p.m.)


This is a very intriguing game and a tough one to predict.  N.C. State did what they needed to do on Thursday, putting away Boston College.  But truthfully neither one of these teams has been in great form recently.  UVA collapsed late against Florida State and almost collapsed against Maryland.  They will be without Assane Sene because of disciplinary reasons, and Malcolm Brogdon because of injury.  N.C. State has the talent but has not played well against the top teams in the league.  I'm leaning ever slightly toward the team that is desperate to win.
Pick: N.C. State


#2 Duke vs. #10 Virginia Tech (7:00 p.m.)


Virginia Tech got a nice win on Thursday, upsetting Clemson.  They are likely not going to play beyond this week, so this is their last hurrah.  They have a chance to pull a shocker against Duke.  These two teams just played a couple weeks ago in Cameron, and Virginia Tech had a chance to win in regulation.  Duke will also be without Ryan Kelly for the ACC Tournament, after he was injured in practice.  Historically, though, Duke has been very tough to beat in the ACC Tournament.  If Austin Rivers plays like he's capable of, he's going to be very difficult to stop.  And fatigue might come into play in the second half for Virginia Tech.
Pick: Duke


#3 Florida State vs. #6 Miami (9:30 p.m.)

Miami had a pretty uninspired performance for most of their game against Georgia Tech, using one run to pull away.  They had a pretty convincing win against Florida State just a couple weeks ago, and certainly can give the Seminoles trouble.  Florida State has some motivation - they have to believe that they can win this tournament, considering they've beaten North Carolina and Duke this year.  Coming into Thursday, I thought Miami had a good shot at winning this.  But their performance in the first round scares me.  I think the Seminoles win.
Pick: Florida State

ACC Tournament Preview: First Round

The regular season is over and it's time for teams to make a last minute push in this week's ACC Tournament.  There are some intriguing games in round one.  So let's get right to it.

#8 Maryland vs. #9 Wake Forest (12:00 p.m.)
North Carolina got a heck of a draw here.  They have a virtual bye into the semifinals.  Maryland has been on a downward trend since losing Pe'Shon Howard for the year, losing four of their last five games.  Wake Forest is the weakest #9 seed you will ever see.  They won four conference games, all against teams below them in the standings.  The main difference between these two teams is Terrell Stoglin, a much better player than anyone Wake has.
Pick: Maryland

#5 N.C. State vs. #12 Boston College (2:30 p.m.)
A must win for N.C. State.  They are trying to make their way into the NCAA Tournament, and might have to win two games to do it.  The first one should be pretty easy.  Although Boston College has probably overachieved, they still only went 4-12 in conference and lost 11 of their last 13.  N.C. State beat Boston College both times they played each other this year.
Pick: N.C. State

#7 Clemson vs. #10 Virginia Tech (7:00 p.m.)
These two teams have played two very competitive games, with each team winning once by two points.  Clemson is on an upward trend, finishing with wins in four of their last six.  Virginia Tech has lost five of their last six, and looked lethargic in their last game against N.C. State.  If they come ready to play, the Hokies match up well with Clemson and can definitely win.  But Clemson could also win by 20.
Pick: Clemson

#6 Miami vs. #11 Georgia Tech (9:30 p.m.)I'd love to pick an upset in the first round, because there always are, but on paper it's hard to find one.  Miami is a much better team than Georgia Tech, and is motivated by the NCAA Tournament bid that is in their sights.  Like N.C. State, Miami probably needs to win two games to feel good about their NCAA Tournament chances.  I can't see anyone stopping Reggie Johnson in this game.  Miami won the only meeting between these two in Atlanta by 15.
Pick: Miami

Weekend Recap

There wasn't a whole lot of drama in the final weekend of the ACC season.  Out of the six games, only one went right down to the wire.  Of course the headliner is North Carolina's win over Duke.  The Tar Heels took it to Duke from the tip in Cameron, looking like they definitely wanted payback from their first matchup.  Austin Rivers and the other Duke guards were largely ineffective and unable to knock down 3s.  For Carolina, Tyler Zeller and Kendall Marshall were the main weapons.  That gives North Carolina the ACC regular season title and #1 seed in the ACC Tournament.

The best game of the weekend was Virginia holding off Maryland in overtime in College Park.  The Cavaliers almost blew another game late, and would have been squarely on the bubble if they had lost.  But they were able to make the plays in overtime thanks largely to Mike Scott and should definitely be in the NCAA Tournament.  Scott had a terrific game, and I think should be named ACC Player of the Year.

So now the teams get set for the ACC Tournament.  I will be back with a preview later this week.  Here are the first round matchups:

#8 Maryland vs. #9 Wake Forest
#5 NC State vs. #12 Boston College
#7 Clemson vs. #10 Virginia Tech
#6 Miami vs. #11 Georgia Tech

The ACC announced its All-ACC teams on Monday.  The first team consists of:

Tyler Zeller (UNC)
John Henson (UNC)
Mike Scott (UVA)
Harrison Barnes (UNC)
Austin Rivers (Duke)

Here's a link to the whole list:
All-ACC Teams

Weekend Preview

A very interesting last couple days as the ACC season draws to a close.  The game of the week was definitely in Charlottesville, a very meaningful game between UVA and Florida State.  It looked like the Cavaliers were going to run away after Bernard James was ejected for kicking Joe Harris.  But Florida State crept back in it, made the plays down the stretch, and hit a huge shot with less than a second left to win.  That game might have thrown UVA squarely on the bubble.  If they had been able to hang on, I think they were definitely in the tournament.  But now they really don't have much wiggle room at all, and need to win at Maryland this weekend.

The other meaningful game was N.C. State protecting their home court against Miami.  That might have put a sting into the Hurricanes' chances at a bid, with no opportunity to get a good win in their last game against BC.  N.C. State, meanwhile, probably need to win at Virginia Tech Sunday to have a chance at a bid.

Here is the schedule for the all important last game of the regular season:

Saturday:

Wake Forest at Georgia Tech (Noon, ACC Network)
We get the worst game out of the way early.  This game between two cellar dwellars doesn't mean much other than who will be the 12 seed in the ACC Tournament.

Boston College at Miami (2:30 p.m., ACC Network)
BC got a fourth conference win on Wednesday, a pretty solid accomplishment considering their expectations.  They will be hard pressed to get a fifth win against Miami.  The Hurricanes have to be disappointed by their loss in Raleigh but need to bounceback here.

North Carolina at Duke (7:00 p.m., ESPN)
You may have heard about this game.  Ever since Austin Rivers hit the buzzer-beater, Tar Heel fans have been chomping at the bit to get back at their hated rivals.  Duke has played better on the road than at home, and should be the underdog in this game.  Just like last year, the ACC regular season title is on the line.

Sunday:

Clemson at Florida State (Noon, ESPN2)
Florida State had a very impressive performance in Charlottesville Thursday, and will be looking to wrap up the season with a payback win against Clemson.  The Tigers got to 8 conference wins, a great accomplishment after how they started the season.

Virginia at Maryland (2:00 p.m., ACC Network)
An absolutely huge game for Virginia.  They need to win against a fading Maryland team.  I'm not sure who will be able to stop Mike Scott, but if the Cavaliers let Terrell Stoglin get hot this one could get very interesting.

N.C. State at Virginia Tech (6:00 p.m., ESPNU)
A must win for N.C. State.  Nine conference wins could be enough to get them into the NCAA Tournament.  Virginia Tech continues to play well on the road but come up just short.  They will be motivated to play spoiler against the Wolfpack.

Final Thoughts:

There is a big jumble of possible ACC Tournament seedings.  Going through all the possible scenarios would take much too long.  These are the things we know though: the winner of the Duke/Carolina game will be the #1 seed.  The loser will be #2.  Florida State will be the #3 seed.  #4 through #7 will be some order of: Virginia, Miami, NC State and Clemson.  Maryland is definitely going to be the #8 seed.  And #9 through #12 will be some order of Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Boston College and Georgia Tech.  Getting to that #4 seed will be the most important thing going for teams this weekend.