Tuesday, November 29, 2011

ACC/Big Ten Challenge Preview: Part 2

Based on my predictions, Tuesday's games don't match up well for the ACC.  So will Wednesday shape up any better?  Let's take a look:

Indiana at NC State
7:15 p.m., ESPN2
This is definitely a favorable matchup for the ACC.  NC State has played well this year, with wins over Texas and a solid Princeton team.  They will face an improved Indiana team, but one that is still trying to come back from being way down in the Big Ten.  Indiana's best win is over Butler, who is not anywhere near where they were last March.  I think NC State wins this one fairly easily.
Pick: NC State

Penn State at Boston College
7:15 p.m., ESPNU
Wow what a stinker.  Boston College has been really really bad so far, with a 2-4 record.  All four of those losses have been by double digits.  Penn State's best win is a home game against South Florida.  They recently lost to St. Joseph's by 18 points in a game in which they were down 22-0.  You would have to be the biggest college hoops junkie in the universe to watch more than 30 seconds of this game.
Pick: Penn State

Florida State at Michigan State
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Florida State lost a big opportunity last weekend in the Bahamas.  With UConn being upset by UCF, all FSU had to do to play in the championship game was beat Harvard.  Instead, they lost in an ugly game, had to play UConn and lost that game too.  They have a chance to get back on a good note with a road win against Michigan State.  The Spartans are in a bit of a rebuilding mode, already losing to Duke and North Carolina this year.  Michigan State is tough to beat at home, though.
Pick: Michigan State

Virginia Tech at Minnesota
9:15 p.m., ESPN2
The Hokies have been playing pretty solid basketball this year, with the lone loss being to top 5 Syracuse.  They bounced back to beat Oklahoma State and St. Bonaventure in what was a potential trap game.  Minnesota has also been playing pretty well, with solid wins over mid-majors Fairfield and Indiana State.  Unfortunately, they lost their best player, Trevor Mbakwe, for the season, and lost by double digits to Dayton.  This is a tough game to call - I think the fact that the young players for Virginia Tech are playing their first true road game of the year will prove to be a little too much to overcome.
Pick: Minnesota

Wake Forest at Nebraska
9:15 p.m., ESPNU
Wake got a little bit of a boost in their last game, with a win over a power conference team in Texas Tech.  They needed that, after a lopsided loss against an Arizona State squad that is not at all good.  Nebraska is of course a newcomer to the Big Ten.  They have a good win over Southern Cal on the road, and a loss at home to Oregon.  Nebraska will probably finish in the bottom third of the Big Ten, but they should have enough to beat Wake at home.
Pick: Nebraska

Wisconsin at North Carolina
9:30 p.m., ESPN
You can stop the talk of North Carolina going undefeated.  They had a very surprising loss in a virtual road game against UNLV.  The Tar Heels have a lot of talent, but haven't really been able to gel so far.  That being said, I don't expect them to lose to Wisconsin.  Bo Ryan has a solid team once again, but they haven't really been tested.  Their best win so far is against BYU, who doesn't have Jimmer Fredette any more.
Pick: North Carolina

The Big Ten has won the challenge the last two years and it looks like that might continue this year.  Based on my predictions, the Big Ten will win it 8-4.  But you never know - an upset here or there can be a big difference.  One thing is for sure: there are plenty of good games to watch the next couple days!

Monday, November 28, 2011

ACC/Big Ten Challenge Preview: Part 1


The ACC/Big Ten Challenge is always one of the highlights of the basketball season.  For many ACC teams, this game is their stiffest challenge and a good benchmark for how the team is progressing.  This year, the challenge is a little different.  Now that the Big Ten has added Nebraska, every team from the ACC can play in the event.  And now that there are 12 teams, we need a good tie-breaker in case it ends up 6-6.  So I'm going to make one up.  I will say the conference that ends up with more road victories will win the title - it's always important to play well on the road.


So here is a look ahead at Tuesday's games:


Michigan at Virginia
7:00 p.m., ESPN2
Virginia has had one hiccup so far this year, against TCU.  Other than that they have been solid, but not spectacular.  They have a good chance to make a statement against a Michigan team that should make the NCAA Tournament this year.  Michigan is ranked #14, with a win over Memphis and their only loss being to Duke.  I think UVA is still finding its way, and I like the Wolverines in this one.
Pick: Michigan


Northwestern at Georgia Tech
7:15 p.m., ESPNU
Georgia Tech's best win so far is against VCU, which lost a lot from its Final Four team last year.  They have not played since last Wednesday.  They will take on Northwestern, who is 5-0 with wins against LSU and Seton Hall.  There really isn't a lot of interest in this game, and you can probably flip a coin to see who wins.  I'll take the team that's actually beaten LSU.
Pick: Northwestern


Illinois at Maryland
7:30 p.m., ESPN
I'm pretty sure Maryland is on ESPN just because of their name.  They are not a good basketball team.  The Terps are 3-2, and both of their losses have been by more than 20 points.  Illinois has been quiet to start the season, going 6-0 against a whole lot of nobodies.  Again, this is not a marquee game.  I think the Terps win a game that might not get out of the 40s.
Pick: Maryland


Miami at Purdue
9:00 p.m., ESPN2
Now this is a better matchup.  Miami is a bit of an enigma early in the season, with a loss in their only real test, an overtime game against Ole Miss.  They have been getting great contributions from their two solid guards, Durand Scott and Malcolm Grant, but not much else.  Purdue lost their two best players from last year but still have Robbie Hummel.  Their best win is against Temple.  Purdue gets the nod here because they are really tough to beat at home.
Pick: Purdue


Clemson at Iowa
9:15 p.m., ESPNU
I have been disappointed with how Clemson has started their season.  They have already lost two home games, to Charleston and Coastal Carolina.  They need a solid performance here in Iowa.  The Hawkeyes have not been good for a while, and have already lost to Campbell at home and Creighton (by 23!).  The Tigers need to win this game.
Pick: Clemson


Duke at Ohio State
9:30 p.m., ESPN
They have saved the best for last on Tuesday.  Duke and Ohio State are both top 5 teams.  The Blue Devils have already played a very difficult schedule and have come through unscathed.  This is their third straight game against a ranked opponent, and the toughest of the three.  Jared Sullinger is back for Ohio State, and is averaging almost 19 points per game.  Ohio State has already beaten top 10 opponent Florida at home.  They should win this one as well.
Pick: Ohio State


If my picks hold true, the ACC will have a lot of work to do in Wednesday's games.  I'll be back with a preview of those tomorrow.

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

ACC Update: 11/22

It was very difficult to watch last year as Wake Forest struggled so much to one of the worst years in ACC history.  Unfortunately, that may happen again this year with Boston College.  Last night, BC played at home against UMass, a team not expected to contend in the Atlantic 10.  And the Eagles lost by 36 points.  36!  I can't even describe in words how bad that is.  This is the Atlantic Coast Conference!  I know the ACC is supposed to be down again this year but man, that is really embarrassing.  In this game, BC shot 31% from the field, 23% from 3, and 52% from the line.  I really hope Steve Donahue can turn things around quickly.

On the positive side, NC State had a very nice win against Texas.  They were down at one point by 18 points, but sparked by the disqualification of J'Covan Brown, they came all the way back.  In a strange ending, CJ Leslie missed two free throws with the chance to put the game out of reach.  And then Texas took a desperation 3 that an NC State player swatted away.  Texas was screaming for a goaltending call, to no avail.  It looks like NC State will be one of the better teams in the ACC this year.

Duke got a win as expected over Tennessee in the first round of the Maui Invitational.  This sets up a very interesting re-match of last year's NCAA Tournament game between Duke and Michigan.  John Beilein has really done a good job building the Wolverine program to fit his 1-3-1 defense, and they have a good shot of pulling the upset.

Another underrated game on the schedule tonight is Clemson vs. Coastal Carolina.  Clemson had a very disappointing loss to Coastal Carolina over the weekend.  They were down double digits in the second half before mounting a charge that fell just short.  Coastal Carolina had a terrific year last year in the Big South under Coach Cliff Ellis and definitely has the firepower to beat Clemson.

In other conference news, there is some trouble brewing at Maryland.  Besides the school voting to get rid of eight sports teams, after their latest loss, Coach Mark Turgeon had some strong words to say to his team.  He said, among other things, "This is the biggest challenge I've ever had in coaching. It's not even close."  Check out this Washington Post story on the issue:
Coach Turgeon Losing His Players?

Saturday, November 19, 2011

Tournament Update


A lot has gone on in the last few days - some good, some bad for the ACC teams. Here is an update on where these early season tournaments are now:


Let's start in Charleston with Georgia Tech.  The Yellow Jackets lost their first game of the year in a pretty uninspired effort to St. Joseph's, 66-53.  They were able to come back and beat VCU, last year's NCAA Tournament darling, 73-60.  That sets up a fifth place game on Sunday against LSU, a team that has been an SEC doormat for the last couple years.


In Puerto Rico, Maryland had a very tough first game.  They managed only 42 points against Alabama, with very little production from their starters.  Alabama is a very solid team, but this was definitely a bad performance from the Terps.  Fortunately for them, they were able to bounce back the next day to earn a nice win over Colorado.  Colorado is a little bit of an unknown commodity, having come close to the NCAA Tournament last year.  That sets up a fifth place game on Sunday against Iona, an underrated team that lost to Purdue by just one point.


The most disappointing loss for an ACC team has to be Virginia's two point defeat in the Virgin Islands yesterday to TCU.  The Horned Frogs were picked to be near the bottom of the Mountain West.  Former Hokie Hank Thorns came up big against Virginia, and the Cavs were only able to shoot 37.5% for the game.  The other bad news for Virginia is that since Norfolk State was able to upset Drexel, they will have to play a Drexel team that is supposed to be very solid in the CAA.  Virginia's third game will be against either Winthrop or Drake.


Virginia Tech took care of business in their NIT Tip-Off game against Florida International.  All four top seeds advanced to Madison Square Garden next week.  So the Hokies will take on Syracuse on Wednesday, followed by either Stanford or Oklahoma State.


The other game of note from yesterday was Boston College going down by 22 points to Holy Cross.  This is not a good sign for a team that is expected to be quite bad this year.  They need to right the ship against UMass on Monday before heading to the 76 Classic.

Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Early-Season Tournaments

It seems like every year there is a new early-season tournament attracting several top teams.  As most are taking place in the next week, here's a look at where the ACC teams are going for what are very meaningful non-conference games.

Boston College - 76 Classic
76 Classic Bracket

Boston College will head out to Anaheim next week for the 76 Classic.  They aren't expected to be very good this year, but fortunately for them the field for this event isn't as good as it has been in past years.  The Eagles will play St. Louis in the first game, a game they can definitely win.  If they win that one, they will probably play Villanova in the second round.  The Wildcats aren't as good as they have been in past years but should be able to beat BC.  Potential final round opponents for BC include Oklahoma and Washington State.


Clemson - Diamond Head Classic
Diamond Head Classic Bracket

Clemson has a while to go before its tournament.  The Diamond Head Classic in Hawaii isn't played until December.  Their first game is against UTEP.  More on that later in the season.



Duke - Maui Invitational
Maui Invitational Bracket

The Maui Invitational has the best pedigree of the early season tournaments - it almost always draws either North Carolina or Duke.  This year the Blue Devils take part in a solid field.  They take on Tennessee in the first round.  The Vols are in a bit of a rebuilding mode after NCAA violations and the firing of Coach Bruce Pearl.  Duke will then play either Michigan or Memphis.  The Wolverines gave Duke all they could handle in the NCAA Tournament last year.  And Memphis is a preseason top 10 team.  The other side of the bracket isn't as strong, but Kansas presents a very tough challenge if Duke meets them in the final.





Florida State - Battle For Atlantis
Battle For Atlantis Bracket

Florida State is playing in a brand new tournament at the Atlantis resort in the Bahamas next week.  The tournament is set up so hopefully FSU will play UConn in the final.  To get there, the Noles will have to beat UMass in their first game.  Then they will play either Utah or Harvard.  UConn will likely coast through its side of the bracket so FSU would likely have to win two games to play the Huskies in the final.


Georgia Tech - Charleston Classic
Charleston Classic Bracket

Georgia Tech is another team that isn't expected to do much this year that has a chance to make a splash in an early-season tournament.  They will take on Saint Joseph's on Thursday in the first round of the Charleston Classic.  Their next game will be against either VCU or Seton Hall.  The best team on the other side of the bracket is probably Northwestern.


Maryland - Puerto Rico Tip-Off
Puerto Rico Tip-Off Bracket

The Terps head to Puerto Rico this week to face a challenging field.  Their first round game is against Alabama, a team that has NCAA aspirations.  If they can find a way to win that game, the Terps will have another tough matchup against the winner of Wichita State-Colorado.  Purdue and Temple are on the other side of the bracket.  It wouldn't be a surprise if Maryland lost all three games, but 1-2 is a more likely outcome.



North Carolina - Las Vegas Invitational

For some reason it's hard to find much information for this tournament.  From what I can figure out, UNC will play two games in Chapel Hill, against Mississippi Valley State and Tennessee State.  They will then travel to Las Vegas next week to take on South Carolina, and then either UNLV or USC.  It's hard to think that UNC will lose any of those games.



NC State - TicketCity Legends Classic

NC State is participating in a special four team event in East Rutherford, NJ this weekend.  Their first game on Saturday is against a Vanderbilt team that was in the top 10 in the preseason, but already lost at home to Cleveland State.  Then the Wolfpack will play either Texas or Oregon State.  It's not far fetched to think NC State could win both games.



Virginia - Paradise Jam
Paradise Jam Bracket

The Cavaliers travel to the US Virgin Islands this week to take part in the Paradise Jam.  This is one of the weakest tournament fields I've seen, and Virginia could win the whole thing.  Their first game is against TCU, a team that has had a very poor basketball program.  Then they will take on either Drexel or Norfolk State.  If it shakes out like it should, UVA would take on Marquette in the final.  The Golden Eagles could be a solid team this year, coming off a Sweet 16 appearance last year.



Virginia Tech - NIT Season Tip-Off
NIT Season Tip-Off Bracket

The Hokies have already started playing in the NIT Season Tip-Off.  They beat Monmouth on Monday.  Surprisingly, they will face Florida International instead of George Mason.  FIU beat the Patriots in overtime.  If the Hokies can beat FIU, then they will head to Madison Square Garden.  The likely matchup in the semi-finals next week would be Syracuse.  The other teams likely to advance to MSG are Stanford and Oklahoma State.  Interestingly, the Hokies could end up playing Oklahoma State twice this season - they have a scheduled game in Stillwater later this year.



Wake Forest - Old Spice Classic
Old Spice Classic Bracket

Wake Forest might have a rude awakening this season with a trip to Orlando next week to face some tough opponents.  They might be in a position where they are happy just winning one out of three games.  The first round matchup for the Demon Deacons is Dayton, a team with a new coach that has at least made the NIT in recent years.  The second round matchup would be against either Fairfield (who isn't bad) or Arizona State.  The best teams on the other side of the bracket are Minnesota and Texas Tech.

Miami is not playing in an early-season tournament this year.

Saturday, November 12, 2011

Season Preview


Harrison Barnes
1. North Carolina


2010-2011 record: 29-8 (14-2 ACC)


Games against NCAA Tournament teams: 10
Best non-conference game: 12/3 at Kentucky



Projected Starting Five:




F - Tyler Zeller (Senior)
F - John Henson (Junior)
F - Harrison Barnes (Sophomore)
G - Dexter Strickland (Junior)
G - Kendall Marshall (Sophomore)




There isn't much up for debate: North Carolina is clearly the best team in the ACC.  Roy Williams has had three core groups of players that have been outstanding since he's been in Chapel Hill.  The first was Felton/McCants/May. The second was Lawson/Hansbrough/Ellington/Green.  And now there's this class of players, led by Harrison Barnes.


Barnes came in with so much hype last year.  It took him a while to get into his groove in the offense, and once he did he started shooting and didn't stop. I thought he shot a little too much at times, but at points he was brilliant.  He is joined in the frontcourt by John Henson and Tyler Zeller, two guys who are definitely capable of putting up big numbers.  Henson has to be a guy that NBA scouts are drooling over, with his long arms and high motor.


But the main guy who makes this team go is Kendall Marshall.  The turning point last year came when the Tar Heels parted ways with Larry Drew, who never lived up to his potential.  Marshall stepped in and was terrific.  He isn't the biggest scorer, but can make shots when called upon.  He is an excellent distributor and runs Carolina's fast break very well.  James McAdoo is the most highly ranked freshman coming in, but will have a hard time getting playing time behind Carolina's other more experienced players.


North Carolina has a pretty solid schedule.  They already started things out by beating Michigan State by double digits in that aircraft carrier game.  The big matchup is a game in Rupp Arena against a Kentucky team that knocked them out of the NCAA Tournament last year.


The Tar Heels certainly have the talent to win it all for a third time under Roy Williams.  They should end up with a very gaudy record, and win the ACC easily.  It is really hard to find a weak link with this team.  The only thing I would caution is that many people felt the same way about Duke last year, and then they had a significant injury and couldn't get it done.  As talented as Barnes is, Marshall is the one guy they can't afford to get hurt.  As long as he can stay healthy and in the game, this is one tough team to beat.

Friday, November 11, 2011

Season Preview


Doc and Austin Rivers
2. Duke


2010-2011 record: 32-5 (13-3 ACC)


Games against NCAA Tournament teams: 13
Best non-conference game: 11/29 at Ohio State




Projected Starting Five:




F - Mason Plumlee (Senior)
F - Ryan Kelly (Junior)
G - Andre Dawkins (Junior)
G - Austin Rivers (Freshman)
G - Seth Curry (Junior)




Last year did not go quite as expected for Duke.  First, they had to deal with a tough injury to super freshman Kyrie Irving.  Then, they had a couple unexpected losses in the regular season.  And just when they got Irving back, they had problems integrating him back into the lineup and lost to Arizona in the Sweet 16.  Now the Blue Devils will go into this season overshadowed by their hated rivals, UNC.


Duke certainly has the pieces to once again be an elite team.  They lose Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith, plus Irving to the NBA draft.  They will rely a lot more on the Plumlees this year, who haven't really fulfilled their full potential (they combined for about 12 points per game last year).  Ryan Kelly is one player who might have a breakout year.  He really improved as the year went on, becoming a threat from the perimeter.


The backcourt has some more question marks.  Seth Curry definitely has a lot of talent, but at times he seemed lost among the other talented Duke players last year.  Curry scored just 11 points in 3 games in the NCAA Tournament.  He will move over to play the point.  Andre Dawkins seemed to peak early in the year, and tapered off in ACC play, only three times in ACC games hitting double figures.  The other guard is one of the most coveted recruits in the country: Austin Rivers.  The son of Boston Celtics Coach Doc Rivers, Austin has the reputation of a big time scorer.


I expect Duke to get their bigs involved much more than in years past.  They will have a size advantage on most teams in the conference.  The Plumlees will need to be rebounding machines, to get offensives boards for kick-out 3s for Dawkins or Curry.  Curry is not their traditional point guard who has a lot of speed, so expect them to not get out in transition as much as a team like North Carolina.


You have to love the way Duke schedules.  They have to have one of the toughest non-conference schedules in the country this year.  Duke will play Michigan State, Tennessee, Michigan or Memphis (in Maui), Ohio State, Washington, Temple and St. Johns this year.  And they could face Kansas in the Maui final.  That will get this team battle tested and ready for conference play.  There is no reason to think that they will do any worse than 12-4 in the ACC this year (and 2 of those losses might be to UNC).

Thursday, November 10, 2011

Season Preview


Bernard James
3. Florida State


2010-2011 record: 23-11 (11-5 ACC)


Games against NCAA Tournament teams: 8
Best non-conference game: 11/30 at Michigan State






Projected Starting Five:


F - Bernard James (Senior)
F - Okaro White (Sophomore)
G - Deividas Dulkys (Senior)
G - Michael Snaer (Junior)
G - Jeff Peterson (Senior)




It has been interesting to trace the progression of Florida State over the years.  For years they were the most predictable team in the ACC: they would play very well at home, beat Duke or UNC each year, and finish somewhere around 8-8 in the conference, just missing out on the NCAA Tournament (about where Virginia Tech is now).  Then they took a step up, making the NCAA Tournament in back-to-back years but failing to win a game.  Last year the Seminoles took the next big step, making it to the Sweet 16.  I think they have the ability to duplicate that success.


When you are talking about Florida State and a Leonard Hamilton coached team you think of defense.  The Seminoles will once again have the length to cause people fits.  They do lose Chris Singleton, who was definitely their best player, although they played pretty well without him when he was hurt last year.  I think their key player this year is Bernard James.  James is 26 years old and coming off a pretty good year.  He will be the main force down low.  In the perimeter, Michael Snaer will be key.  Snaer averaged exactly 8.8 points per game both of his first two years, but improved his free throw and three point percentage last year.  The point guard spot will be manned by an interesting player.  Jeff Peterson played at Iowa, then Arkansas, then transferred to Florida State.  His best season was 2008-2009, where he averaged double figures for the Hawkeyes.


Florida State's schedule is somewhat unimpressive.  They will have two tough matchups against rival Florida and Michigan State, but should be able to win their other non-conference games.  They have a very tough start to the ACC season, though.  Their first three games are at Clemson, at Virginia Tech, and home against UNC.  If they can get through that, the second half of the conference schedule is much more forgiving.  So I expect them to be riding some nice momentum going into March.

Wednesday, November 09, 2011

Season Preview


Brad Brownell
4. Clemson


2010-2011 record: 22-12 (9-7 ACC)


Games against NCAA Tournament teams: 6
Best non-conference game: 12/10 at Arizona





Projected Starting Five:


F - Devin Booker (Junior)
F - Milton Jennings (Junior)
G - Tanner Smith (Senior)
G - T.J. Sapp (Freshman)
G - Andre Young (Senior)




The team that I was probably most surprised about when the ACC media preseason rankings came out was Clemson.  Coming off an NCAA Tournament berth, with most of their players back, Clemson was picked 7th.  I'm a believer in Brad Brownell and the Tigers, and think they are in for a good year.  I got the chance to see Clemson in person in the ACC Tournament last year, and was very impressed at how they competed despite not having the same level of talent as North Carolina.  Coach Brownell implemented his system, a big change from the pressing style of Oliver Purnell, and made it work.  The team peaked at just the right time.


So what will this year's team look like?  Expect a heavy dose of Devin Booker, who isn't the same player his brother Trevor was, but can fill up the stat sheet.  I expect Booker to blossom into a double figure scorer.  Milton Jennings has shown flashes of talent, and needs to show some consistency.  In the backcourt, Andre Young is the go-to guy.  He will get his points.  I'm sure Clemson fans want to see more from Tanner Smith this year.  His points per game went down last year, and he looked to be lost in the flow of the game at times.


Clemson has the opportunity to get off to one of their usual good starts.  They don't have a lot in the non-conference, outside of a trip to Arizona.  If the draw works out well, they could face some tough opponents in the Diamond Head Classic.  They have a great opportunity with home games early against Florida State and Duke to make a statement to the rest of the league.


I thought Clemson would take a step down once Oliver Purnell left, but they overachieved last year.  And I think with a second year under his belt, Coach Brownell will get the most out of his players and go the NCAA Tournament again this year.

Tuesday, November 08, 2011

Season Preview


Mike Scott
5. Virginia


2010-2011 record: 16-15 (7-9 ACC)


Games against NCAA Tournament teams: 9
Best non-conference game: 12/18 at Oregon






Projected Starting Five:


C - Assane Sene (Senior)
F - Mike Scott (Senior)
F - Joe Harris (Sophomore)
G - Sammy Zeglinski (Senior)
G - Jontel Evans (Sophomore)




There has been a lot of negativity around the UVA basketball program for so long that I think not many people realized that the Cavaliers ended up with a 7-9 record in the conference last year.  That included winning four out of their last five conference games.  And now there is a lot of optimism, with a majority of the team coming back this year.


Of course the key is forward Mike Scott.  Scott was primed to have a monster year last year, but an injury early in the season forced him to sit the rest of the way.  He was granted a medical redshirt and will be back this season.  If he can be the double-double man that he has shown the promise he can be, that will be huge for this team.


The rest of the parts aren't bad.  Last year's freshman class included some promising players, including Joe Harris, who averaged 10.4 points per game, and K.T. Harrell, who averaged 8 points per game.  Jontel Evans isn't a big scorer but is a solid point guard for Coach Tony Bennett's offense.


The non-conference schedule sets up well for success.  UVA doesn't have to hit the road until December 18th, when they have a date with Oregon.  A road game later on against LSU is a chance to win against a struggling SEC program.


I think Coach Bennett has this team in a good spot.  They are so frustrating to play against, because they slow the tempo down and force you to play their game.  Here's why I don't think their ceiling is that high: their offense is structured to run the clock down and shoot a fair amount of outside shots.  If they are shooting the ball well, they win games.  But if they aren't making their 3s, they could put up an ugly offensive number in the 30s or 40s.  I think UVA is bound to have some of those games, which could keep them from going 10-6 in the conference.  They have a decent shot of making the NCAAs, though.

Monday, November 07, 2011

Season Preview


C.J. Leslie
6. NC State


2010-2011 record: 15-16 (5-11 ACC)


Games against NCAA Tournament teams: 10
Best non-conference game: 11/19 vs. Vanderbilt (in East Rutherford, NJ)








Projected Starting Five:


F - Richard Howell (Junior)
F - C.J. Leslie (Sophomore)
F - Scott Wood (Junior)
G - C.J. Williams (Senior)
G - Lorenzo Brown (Sophomore)




You probably heard the collective sigh of relief coming from NC State fans this spring as the school made a change at head coach.  Sidney Lowe was an alum and tried his best, but just didn't cut it as the coach of the Wolfpack.  He was able to recruit decent players, but didn't get them motivated to play at their best, and had disappointing year after disappointing year.  Now Mark Gottfried is the head man at NC State, a coach who did some good things at Alabama.  And he inherits some talent.


Perhaps no one was a better example of not playing to his potential than C.J. Leslie.  He was touted as one of the best freshman in the ACC last year, but seemed to have trouble with focus at times.  He ended up scoring 11 points per game, but shot 25% from 3-point land and 54% from the line.  Leslie will have to be the main focus for the Wolfpack this year, with Tracy Smith gone.


Besides Leslie, there are other players with potential.  I have always liked Richard Howell, who has played in a supporting role but will be able to step up into the starting lineup.  And many people are high on Lorenzo Brown, who will hopefully provide some stability at a point guard spot that Javier Gonzalez did not provide the last few years.  Scott Wood is a very capable shooter that can light you up very quickly.


NC State has some tests on their schedule.  An early season game against Princeton is intriguing.  They also face two top-10 teams in Vanderbilt and Syracuse between now and Christmas.  I think NC State has the talent to make the NCAA Tournament.  If Coach Gottfried can find a lineup combination that he likes and can get the most out of players like Leslie, the other teams in the ACC have enough question marks that they can finish in the top half of the conference.  That will be a welcome change in Raleigh.

Sunday, November 06, 2011

Season Preview


Erick Green
7. Virginia Tech


2010-2011 record: 22-12 (9-7 ACC)


Games against NCAA Tournament teams: 9
Best non-conference game: 12/4 vs. Kansas State






Projected Starting Five:


F - Cadarian Raines (Sophomore)
F - Victor Davila (Senior)
F - Dorian Finney-Smith (Freshman)
G - Dorenzo Hudson (Senior)
G - Erick Green (Junior)




You can divide the Seth Greenberg regime at Virginia Tech into two different eras.  The first is the Dowdell/Gordon/Collins era.  The second is the Delaney/Allen era.  Take a look at how each four-year class has done:


Dowdell/Gordon/Collins:       67-56 (29-35 in the ACC)
                                        1 NCAA berth, 1 NIT berth


Delaney/Allen:                    87-50 (35-29 in the ACC)
                                        4 NIT berths


This is the start of era #3, with the current freshman class.  The Hokies have the chance to get off to a fresh start, putting behind them the disappointment of not making the NCAA Tournament the last couple years.  Unfortunately, the year is already getting off to a bad start.  J.T. Thompson suffered a season-ending injury in practice this week, the second straight year he will be out.  And Erick Green has an Achilles injury that may sideline him for a couple weeks.


Green is the key player for Virginia Tech this year.  He really stepped up his game in the second half of last year, and will be the emotional leader.  He will be paired in the backcourt with Dorenzo Hudson.  Hudson had a breakout year two seasons ago, but had a lingering injury that made him ineffective when he played last year.  For the Hokies to be successful, Hudson has to recapture his offense from two seasons ago.


The other big key is Cadarian Raines.  Raines has had injury problems since he got to Blacksburg, and really needs to stay healthy.  He has to provide good minutes with Thompson out.  I do expect the freshmen to provide an impact - they might not be great right away, but by the end of the year they will be counted on for a lot.


So what can we expect from this team?  Expect some growing pains at first, especially with a difficult early season schedule.  The likely home game against George Mason will be huge - if the Hokies can win that one, they will have a couple great tests at Madison Square Garden.  I do expect the freshmen to gain confidence as the year goes on and the Hokies could roll to a high finish in the conference.  But if any more injuries strike (I had them at 6 before the Thompson injury) and their depth goes away again, it could be a long year.

Saturday, November 05, 2011

Season Preview


Jim Larranaga
8. Miami


2010-2011 record: 21-15 (6-10 ACC)


Games against NCAA Tournament teams: 9
Best non-conference game: 12/6 vs. Memphis






Projected Starting Five:


C - Kenny Kadji (Sophomore)
F - DeQuan Jones (Senior)
G - Garrius Adams (Junior)
G - Durand Scott (Junior)
G - Malcolm Grant (Senior)




Having gone to a lot of George Mason games over the years, I am very familiar with Jim Larranaga.  And I would have never predicted that his next coaching job would be at Miami, a school that hasn't exactly been a model for great behavior.  So it will be very interesting to see what kind of fit Larranaga is in this program.  Frank Haith started out as a very solid coach at Miami, but over the last few years his teams consistently underachieved.  So I think the fan base let out a sigh of relief when he decided to bolt for Missouri.


What Coach Larranaga inherits is a bit of a team in flux.  The pieces are there to be an NCAA Tournament caliber team.  He has two very solid guards in Durand Scott and Malcolm Grant, who were the two leading scorers last year.  Beyond that there are some question marks.  Reggie Johnson has a lot of potential, but he will be on the bench at the start of the season with an injury.  Julian Gamble is out for the season with an injury.  And DeQuan Jones is in the middle of a battle with an NCAA, who may rule him ineligible.  Take those guys away and there are a lot of questions in the frontcourt.  The good news is the Hurricanes picked up Kenny Kadji, a transfer from Florida who didn't play much for the Gators but could pick up the slack down low.


I give Miami credit - a lot of years they play a very soft early season schedule, but they have put together a challenging slate.  The Canes will play Memphis, Purdue, West Virginia and Ole Miss in the first month of the season.  Look for them to have more of a defensive identity than they did under Coach Haith.  A lot of times near the end of games Miami would go into streetball mode, trying to play one-on-one and throwing up wild shots.  Larranaga will bring more discipline.


This team was pretty close to being good last year.  They had a stretch of four straight ACC games that they lost by four points or less.  The only two conference games they lost by double digits were both to Duke.  I think it will take a little while for Larranaga to get acclimated to his new team, especially with the injuries.  So Miami will struggle more than the experts predict (ACC media picked them 5th).  But they have a good coach who should do good things in the long run.

Friday, November 04, 2011

Season Preview


The Thrillerdome
9. Georgia Tech


2010-2011 record: 13-18 (5-11 ACC)


Games against NCAA Tournament teams: 6
Best non-conference game: 12/7 at Georgia




Projected Starting Five:


C - Daniel Miller (Sophomore)
F - Kammeon Holsey (Sophomore)
G - Glen Rice, Jr. (Junior)
G - Jason Morris (Sophomore)
G - Mfon Udofia (Junior)




It was only a matter of time before Paul Hewitt was no longer the coach at Georgia Tech.  Hewitt could recruit, and brought a lot of talented guys to Atlanta, but he was not a good in-game coach.  His teams were some of the sloppiest you'll see, with so many turnovers.  So it was time to make a change.  And that means Brian Gregory comes over from Dayton, where he had a decent impact on that program.


Gregory's biggest challenge is finding a replacement for Iman Shumpert.  Shumpert was one of the best players in the league last year, finishing with 17.3 points per game, and leading the team in rebounds, assists and steals.  There is no one on the current Georgia Tech roster who will be able to fill that void.  What they do have is a few decent shooters, led by Glen Rice, Jr., who was the second-leading scorer last year.  I was high on Mfon Udofia after his freshman year, but it seems that he regressed last year.  He will have to step up his game for this team to be successful.


The team will miss Brian Oliver, who was a spark before he got hurt last year.  He ended up transferring to Seton Hall.  Like last year, the team has very little in the frontcourt.  Kammeon Holsey and Daniel Miller, the presumed starters, combined for about eight points per game last year.  Coach Gregory has already said that he will likely use four guards on the court at the same time, but that will prove very difficult against teams like North Carolina and Florida State.


It's definitely going to be a strange year for the Yellow Jackets.  Besides a new coach, the team has no real home, with Alexander Memorial Coliseum (aka the Thrillerdome) undergoing renovations.  They will split their games this year between the Atlanta Hawks' home and Gwinett Arena.  That will make it very difficult to have a true home court advantage.  Georgia Tech does have a pretty easy schedule, with non-conference highlights being games against SEC teams Georgia and Alabama.  They also get Duke and Carolina only once, and play Boston College and Wake twice each.  That schedule is the main reason why I put them as high as #9.

Thursday, November 03, 2011

Season Preview


Gary Williams - Retired
10. Maryland


2010-2011 record: 19-14 (7-9 ACC)


Games against NCAA Tournament teams: 9
Best non-conference game: 12/4 vs. Notre Dame (in Washington, DC)




Projected Starting Five:


C - Berend Weijs (Senior)
F - James Padgett (Junior)
G - Sean Mosley (Senior)
G - Terrell Stoglin (Sophomore)
G - Nick Faust (Freshman)




It feels weird to pick Maryland to finish so low in the ACC.  I can't remember the last time they were in the bottom fourth of the league.  And that is due to two big factors.  First, the loss of Coach Gary Williams.  Williams endured his share of criticism in recent years, but the fact remains that he was a great in-game coach.  His recruiting tapered off a bit, but he almost always over-achieved with the kids that he had.  And his retirement definitely came as a surprise.  The second reason: the early departure of Jordan Williams.  He was a double-double machine last year and was clearly Maryland's best player.  Williams finished with 16.9 points per game and 11.8 rebounds per game.


So where does that leave the Terps?  They brought in Mark Turgeon, who is a very solid coach.  He left Wichita State and Texas A&M in better places than when he got there, making the NCAA Tournament every year he was coach of the Aggies.  Turgeon inherits some talented players, including Terrell Stoglin, who had a good freshman year and was the team's second-leading scorer.  The starting lineup looks a little different for the beginning of the year than it will when we get to 2012.  Pe'Shon Howard, who was a star at times last year, suffered a preseason injury and will miss the first two months of the season.  And Alex Len, a freshman from the Ukraine, must sit out the first 10 games.  Len is being touted as a very solid player and how he performs after the suspension will go a long way to determining what kind of year it is for the Terps.


As it is, the start of the season will probably bring some growing pains.  The frontcourt is very thin and short on talent, although Terps fans are high on the promise of James Padgett.  Maryland usually plays a pretty challenging early season schedule, and this season is no exception.  They will have to face Alabama, Illinois and Notre Dame without Len and Howard.  The ACC schedule is no less forgiving - the Terps have to play two games each against North Carolina and Duke, and only get doormats Boston College and Wake Forest once.


This team will be a work in progress.  It will be up to Turgeon to instill his style on this team.  There probably will be less running up and down the court and more halfcourt sets.  They have a chance to be in the middle of the pack in the ACC if Len and freshman Nick Faust turn out to be solid players.  If not, it will probably be a long year in College Park.

Wednesday, November 02, 2011

Season Preview


Steve Donahue
11. Boston College


2010-2011 record: 21-13 (9-7 ACC)


Games against NCAA Tournament teams: 6
Best non-conference game: 11/30 vs. Penn State








Projected Starting Five:


C - Kyle Caudill (Freshman)
F - Ryan Anderson (Freshman)
G - Danny Rubin (Sophomore)
G - Matt Humphrey (Junior)
G - Gabe Moton (Sophomore)




Steve Donahue arrived at Boston College last year with fairly low expectations, and I think did a really solid job.  The team started off playing very well in the Old Spice Classic, and continued that momentum into the ACC season.  They finished with a 9-7 conference record, and I think should have gotten into the NCAA Tournament.  Unfortunately for BC fans, last year is in the past.  And Donahue will have a whole new challenge this year.


Remember the year after Carolina won the national title the last time?  They lost almost their entire team.  The same thing happened this offseason with BC, except they don't have the talent of Carolina's backup players on their roster to pick up the slack.  It is a major rebuilding year coming up for BC.  The top 5 scorers from last year's team are all gone.  The big loss, of course, is Reggie Jackson, a do-it-all point guard who decided to leave early for the NBA. That leaves a lot of players you've never heard of.


So who is going to step up for Boston College this year?  The leader will probably be Matt Humphrey, a transfer from Oregon.  Humphrey only started seven games in his two years with the Ducks.  The two returning players who will start are Danny Rubin and Gabe Moton, who combined to average 6.7 points per game last year.  The team brings in an astonishing nine freshmen, who will have to have an impact right away.  The one who will probably do the most is Ryan Anderson, who comes across country from California.


What Donahue will need to do is find people who at least can run his system.  If you saw his teams at Cornell, they had a pretty heavy emphasis on shooting the 3.  If he can find some outside shooters, he can have success.  Just not this season.  The ACC media picked Boston College to finish last.  I put them above Wake Forest because I have more faith in Donahue than Jeff Bzdelik.  He will get them on the right track.  BC fans will just have to be patient and maybe go to hockey games this year.

Tuesday, November 01, 2011

Season Preview


Jeff Bzdelik
12. Wake Forest


2010-2011 record: 8-24 (1-15 ACC)


Games against NCAA Tournament teams: 8
Best non-conference game: 12/3 vs. Richmond





Projected Starting Five:


C - Ty Walker (Senior)
F - Travis McKie (Sophomore)
F - Nikita Mescheriakov (Senior)
G - C.J. Harris (Junior)
G - Tony Chennault (Sophomore)




What can you say about Wake Forest last year?  They were very difficult to watch, maybe the worst team ever fielded in the history of the ACC.  Jeff Bzdelik came in as coach, and inherited a team with very little talent.  What's worse is that the team never seemed to establish an identity on the court.  They played about as undisciplined as I've seen, chucking up shots that were way off most of the time, and never developing a game rhythm.  The lone bright spot on the team was freshman Travis McKie, who led the team in scoring and rebounding.


It's hard to imagine much changing this year.  The good news is McKie is back, along with solid guard C.J. Harris and promising point guard Tony Chennault, who got hurt midway through last year.  The bad news is that offseason turmoil continued, and led to the departure of Ari Stewart and J.T. Terrell (Terrell was the second-leading scorer last year).


The schedule sets up decently well for some wins.  Wake doesn't really have a whole lot of challenging non-conference games, and they only have to play North Carolina and Florida State once.  But I just can't believe that this team is going to be even marginally better than it was last year.  The talent just isn't there.  I haven't seen anything from Bzdelik to suggest that he's a good coach, and he is losing the grip on his program.  Lawrence Joel used to be one of the best home arenas in the ACC, and it was mostly empty last year.  I have a hard time seeing more than three conference wins for Wake, and that's with a down ACC.