Saturday, April 24, 2010

Season Recap: Georgia Tech

2009-2010
Georgia Tech: 23-13 (7-9 ACC)

It was certainly an interesting year for Georgia Tech. Coming into the year, a lot of people had the Yellow Jackets ranked very highly, some even had them as a Final Four sleeper. That was due mostly to the presence of super freshman Derrick Favors. I was a little less enthusiastic about the Jackets, because as much as I like Paul Hewitt, he has proven to be a better recruiter than coach. And for the most part, I was right.

Georgia Tech had a decent out-of-conference season, although their schedule was not all that tough. Once they got into conference play, though, they struggled. They couldn't find ways to take advantage of Favors and Gani Lawal, and their big problem was turnovers. It would be very frustrating to be a Georgia Tech fan the way they are so loose with the ball. Many times, they would have unforced errors and look as if they had never practiced before. But they certainly had a lot of talent. And that came to play in March, as they made a nice run to the ACC Tournament final and won a game in the NCAAs.

Best Win: 69-64 over Maryland (3/12)

Georgia Tech was on the bubble coming into the NCAA Tournament. They were able to beat UNC, and then got a huge boost with this win over Maryland. In this game, they got out to a huge lead in the first half, only to see Maryland come all the way back. But in the end the Yellow Jackets were able to make enough plays to win.

Worst Loss: 73-66 to Georgia (1/5)

I know Georgia is Georgia Tech's biggest rival, but they were not a good team this year. And a team with the talent of Georgia Tech should not lose to them, even in Athens. This was one achilles heel for the Jackets this year: playing on the road. Georgia Tech went 3-8 on the road this year.

Postseason Play:

Without a doubt, the postseason was a success. Georgia Tech was able to beat UNC, Maryland and NC State in the ACC Tournament as a 7 seed, advancing to the final. They held their own against Duke before losing by 4. That put them squarely in the NCAA Tournament, where as a 10 seed they pulled off a mild upset in beating Oklahoma State, 64-59. They then had to face a very good Ohio State team, and lost that one 75-66.

What's Ahead:

Paul Hewitt has earned himself another year. But this next season could be a tough one. Derrick Favors has declared for the NBA Draft. Gani Lawal has done the same. They also lose Zach Peacock and D'Andre Bell. That represents 4 of the top 6 scorers. The Jackets have some talented guards coming back, including Imam Shumpert and Mfon Udofia. But who's going to play under the basket? The highest scoring big man left scored 1.3 points per game. Georgia Tech will likely take a step down and be hard pressed to make it back to the NCAAs.

Sunday, April 18, 2010

Season Recap: Florida State

2009-2010
Florida State: 22-10 (10-6 ACC)

I think this was a bit of a validating year for Florida State. For years you could count on them to finish somewhere around 8-8 in the conference, have a couple good wins at home, and just miss out on the NCAA Tournament (basically what Virginia Tech is now). In 08-09 they had a breakout year, thanks largely to star Toney Douglas, making it to the NCAAs. This year without Douglas I thought there might be a bit of a drop-off. But the Noles held it together, with a very solid year and another NCAA bid.

The key for Florida State this past year was defense. They had as much size as anyone in the ACC, and were very tough to score inside against. Solomon Alabi had a nice sophomore season, and was the leader of the team. But it wasn't just one guy getting it done. They had six players average between 8 and 12 points per game. The other thing you could count on Florida State for was consistency. They didn't have any glaringly bad losses or any spectacular wins. They just played solidly from start to finish.

Best Win: 57-56 over Marquette in Orlando (11/29)

Florida State made an early-season statement, winning the Old Spice Classic. In the final, they knocked off a strong Marquette team by one point. This ranks as their best non-conference win by a mile.

Worst Loss: 58-52 to NC State (3/12)

It's bad enough that Florida State lost at home to NC State fairly early in the conference season. But it happened again in the ACC Tournament! The Wolfpack seemed to have the Noles' number this year, winning in a high scoring game and a low scoring game.

Postseason Play:

Much like Clemson, Florida State struggled once they got into postseason play. After losing to NC State in the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament, they got a 9 seed and played against Gonzaga in the NCAAs. Gonzaga really had control of that game, and ended up beating the Noles, 67-60. It goes down as a second straight first round loss for FSU.

What's Ahead:

The Seminoles will go into next season as one of the favorites in the conference. Their only senior of any significance is Ryan Reid. Players like Alabi and Chris Singleton will be in their third years. And look for guard Michael Snaer to have a breakout season. It's clear that in the last couple years under Leonard Hamilton, the Seminoles have elevated their program to the next level. What remains to be seen is whether they can take another step to become a top 20 team.

Saturday, April 17, 2010

Season Recap: Duke

2009-2010
National Champions
Duke: 35-5 (13-3 ACC)

What can you say about Duke this year? They had a great run in March and won the National Championship in thrilling fashion over Butler. This was Duke's first championship since 2001, and first Final Four appearance since 2004.

This was not the Duke team I figured would win a title. But they were a bit of a different Duke team, especially with the focus on size and rebounding. Brian Zoubek and Lance Thomas were every bit as valuable as the Big Three. That being said, I think the main reason why Duke had so much success was that they had three people who could really shoot the ball. All they needed was two of the three to have a good game to win.

The Blue Devils were absolutely dominant at home this year. They did not lose a game, and their closest win was a 9 point victory over St. John's. They did have a few slip-ups on the road, but were at their best when it counted, in the NCAA Tournament.

Best Win: 78-71 over Baylor (3/28)

Duke hadn't really been that tested in the NCAA Tournament until this Elite 8 game. They played a tough Baylor team that was very long and athletic and could shoot it. But Duke didn't back down, turning a close game in their favor late. A lot of people were picking Baylor in this one, and this was the biggest hurdle for Duke until the championship game.

Worst Loss: 88-74 to NC State (1/20)

This is an easy choice if you look at their other four losses: Wisconsin, Georgia Tech, Georgetown and Maryland. All of those teams made the NCAAs. This loss was a bit of a head scratcher at the time, but NC State had an amazing shooting night and just caught Duke on an off-night.

Postseason Play:

The postseason couldn't have gone better for Duke. They breezed through the ACC Tournament, with a fairly easy road that included games against a 9, 12 and 7 seeds. And once in they got into the NCAAs, they turned it up a notch. Duke beat great teams like Purdue, Baylor and West Virginia. And they were able to hold on against a very tough Butler squad in the final game.

What's Ahead:

Many people are putting Duke right back in the Top 5 for next year. They certainly should be the favorites to win the ACC again. The big question mark is whether Kyle Singler will come back for his senior year. We know the Blue Devils will lose Jon Scheyer, Zoubek and Thomas. They will still have Nolan Smith, plus they will add Seth Curry and a great recruiting class. If Andre Dawkins can develop into a dangerous shooter, this team could make another Final Four run.

Thursday, April 15, 2010

Season Recap: Clemson

2009-2010
Clemson: 21-11 (9-7 ACC)

What we thought was going to be a quiet offseason for Clemson has been anything but. Coach Oliver Purnell decided to bolt for Big East doormat DePaul. Clemson settled on Wright State coach Brad Brownell. More on the future of the program later. For now, let's look back at 2009.

Clemson has been pretty predictable in recent years. They do extremely well in the non-conference, only to come back to earth in the ACC and lose in the first round of the NCAAs. Now I will say I never really thought this Clemson team had the talent of the teams in past years. They lost great players like K.C. Rivers and Terence Oglesby, and the incoming class didn't really produce anyone of note. So it was a good accomplishment to get where they did: you can't take making the NCAA Tournament for granted.

Clemson did most of its damage this year at home. Their only home loss in conference was to Duke. They did struggle some on the road, going 2-6 in conference. But I'm sure fans are disappointed by how the season ended. The Tigers lost to NC State in their first round ACC game, and then fell to 10 seed Missouri in the first round of the NCAAs.

Best Win: 70-69 over Butler in Anaheim (11/29)

This game in the 76 Classic didn't get a lot of attention, but when you knock off the team that gets to the National Title game, that earns you this spot. Clemson had already lost once in the tournament, to Texas A&M, and put together a nice win to add to their resume. But it was hard to keep the momentum from that game...

Worst Loss: 76-74 to Illinois (12/2)

I like to put conference games in these spots, but I just couldn't overlook this one. Clemson was up by 23 points at home in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, and let Illinois come all the way back to win. It was definitely a game that sent shockwaves through the country, and was the first real sign of a chink in the armor of the Tigers.

Postseason Play:

As I mentioned earlier, it was a rough end to the season. The Tigers lost in the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament. They were still able to get a 7 seed in the NCAAs, largely due to their non-conference resume. But they lost by 8 to Mizzou. This is the third straight year Clemson has lost in the first round of the NCAAs. And they haven't won an NCAA Tournament game this decade.

What's Ahead:

Like Boston College, Clemson certainly has a lot of question marks with a new coach. Brad Brownell compiled a decent record at Wright State and Old Dominion, but it was nothing overwhelming. Experts I've read seem to like the hire, but I think it will take some time to work out. The good thing is Oliver Purnell has not left the cupboard bare. Clemson loses its heart and soul, Trevor Booker. That will be a tough loss. The only other senior is David Potter. They have some potential with young big guys like Trevor's brother Devin Booker and Jerai Grant.

I think the question mark will be outside shooting. Demontez Stitt is a good shooter but they don't have a lot else in terms of offensive firepower. Still, I expect Clemson to contend for a fourth straight NCAA bid next year.

Saturday, April 10, 2010

Season Recap: Boston College

Now that the season is over, it's time to look back at 2009-2010. Did the team meet expectations? What were the best and worst moments? Plus I'll look ahead to next year. Starting in alphabetical order, let's go with Boston College.

2009-2010
BC: 15-16 (6-10 ACC)

Overall, it wasn't a very good year for the Eagles. They couldn't really get it done in the non-conference, losing several games they shouldn't have. BC lost home games to Harvard, Rhode Island, and Maine, and really didn't have momentum going into the conference season. They found themselves in a lot of close games, but couldn't win them down the stretch. It certainly did not help that they went 1-7 on the road in conference.

If you take a look at how BC has performed well in the last few years, they have really had one standout player that could score in bunches in their flex offense. That has been Craig Smith, Jared Dudley, and Tyrese Rice in recent years. But this year, they had no one that could fill that void. The most explosive scorer was Reggie Jackson, who didn't seem to fit the offense they ran. They also had players who played big roles in the past not really step up this year. I'm thinking of Rakim Sanders, an athletic guard-forward who can knock down shots. He averaged 11 points per game, but didn't have more than 15 points in any game. And his shooting percentages dropped significantly.

Best Win: 75-69 over Clemson (1/26)

This was BC's only win of the season over a team that made the NCAA Tournament. They played decently at home, going 5-3 in the ACC. But they couldn't keep the momentum from this game, losing their next four games.

Worst Loss: 52-51 to Maine (1/2)

I don't know how you lose a home game to Maine. The Black Bears finished third in the America East. This came after BC already lost home games to Harvard and Rhode Island.

Postseason Play:

The Eagles lost in the first round of the ACC Tournament to a Virginia team that had lost 9 games in a row. They did not make any postseason tournaments.

What's Ahead:

Surprisingly, BC dumped Al Skinner after he expressed interest in the St. John's job. Skinner had a great run at BC, and I thought this was a bit of a hasty firing. Now they have to go back to the drawing board with Cornell coach Steve Donahue. Donahue certainly made a name for himself this year, with a great run to the Sweet 16. It will be interesting to see what style he brings to the team. They will probably go from a flex offense to one that is more oriented on the 3. The problem is Boston College doesn't really have good 3 point shooters.

The good news is BC doesn't lose much. Role player Tyler Roche is the only senior. So they have the experience. We'll see if that can translate to more wins next year.

Monday, April 05, 2010

Championship Game Preview

It certainly appears as if Duke is on its way to another National Championship. The Blue Devils looked as good as they have all year against West Virginia. When Scheyer, Singler and Smith are all hitting 3s, it's almost impossible to beat Duke. The Mountaineers didn't stand much of a chance, and had to play from behind all game.

On the other hand, Butler survived in its game with Michigan State. Both teams shot a horrible percentage down the stretch, and Butler was able to hang on (barely). If the Bulldogs have any chance against Duke, they must hit shots, both inside and out. They have to keep Matt Howard in the game battling for rebounds against Brian Zoubek. And they have to hope that one or two of Duke's big three are not hitting. Otherwise the Blue Devils will be the second ACC team in a row to cut down the nets.

Saturday, April 03, 2010

Final Four Preview

We've got two compelling matchups in the Final Four on Saturday. Here's how I see them:

#5 Butler vs. #5 Michigan State (6:07 p.m.)
Butler continues to ride its long winning streak, playing very solid on both ends. They are the type of team that doesn't look very athletic but surprises you with the plays they can make. Gordon Hayward is the standout: he can play inside or outside. And Butler can really clamp down on you on defense. I think the matchup that provides a problem for Butler is Michigan State's Draymond Green. The big guy can bring the ball up the court, and he can go in the low block and post up. He is going to be a tough cover for Matt Howard. I feel like with a week to prepare, Tom Izzo will have a good defensive gameplan for Butler, and the Spartans will win a close one.

#1 Duke vs. #2 West Virginia (8:47 p.m.)
This is the marquee matchup of the day. West Virginia is playing in its first Final Four since 1959. Duke has been there many times since then. Both teams put a lot of emphasis on defense. West Virginia really clamped down on Kentucky and forced them into way too many outside shots. The problem with that in this game is that Duke is a much better three point shooting team than Kentucky. Where West Virginia has the advantage, though, is its physicality. They can outmuscle Duke's big guys on the glass and get second chance opportunities. Duke has played well in the tournament, but they haven't played a team as good as West Virginia. I give the edge to the Mountaineers.