Monday, March 29, 2010

Elite Eight Recap

We had four more very competitive games this weekend, as the Final Four is set. If anyone predicted these four, you should go ahead and buy a lottery ticket. Let's start with the first game, where Butler continued to impress in knocking off Kansas State. I think fatigue was definitely a factor for the Wildcats. And Butler made solid plays down the stretch to win and head home to Indy.

West Virginia pulled off a win over favorite Kentucky. It was a strange game, with WVU not making any 2 point field goals in the first half but still leading at halftime. In the second half, Kentucky's defense broke down, giving up way too many easy baskets. You have to wonder about John Calipari. If he couldn't win it all with this talent and no Kansas, when is he going to ever win?

Michigan State continues to get it done in March, taking out Tennessee in the last minute. Tom Izzo has really impressed me the last two years with his abililty to get the most out of his team during the tournament. Tennessee has to be kicking itself: it had a golden opportunity to get to the first ever Final Four and came up just short.

And Duke was able to knock off Baylor, with some strong offensive rebounding and clutch 3 point shooting late. Baylor impressed me with their athleticism, but just wasn't able to get it done down the stretch. If I were to pick a Duke team from the past 6 or 7 years to get to the Final Four, this one would not have been it. But they have gotten the job done in March.

Saturday, March 27, 2010

Elite Eight Viewing Guide

Week 2 picked up where week 1 left off, with some more great games. The best of the Sweet 16 round had to be the game between Xavier and Kansas State. The Musketeers hit some great shots to extend the game into double overtime, where Kansas State finally won it. The guard play on both sides was tremendous.

The biggest upset of round 3 had to be Butler beating Syracuse. The Orange were trailing most of the game, but took the lead late only to see Butler make a late run to win. Kentucky and Baylor offered the most impressive wins of the round, as cinderellas Cornell and St. Mary's came back to earth. And Northern Iowa couldn't extend their streak, losing to another Michigan State squad that has overachieved in the tournament.

So here's what the Elite 8 round looks like:

Saturday:

#2 Kansas State vs. #5 Butler (4:30 p.m.)
On paper you would definitely say Kansas State has the advantage. But you can't count Butler out, especially after their performance against Syracuse. They will have to be able to contain Jacob Pullen and Denis Clemente if they have a shot of pulling another upset.

#1 Kentucky vs. #2 West Virginia (7:05 p.m.)
This is the marquee game of the weekend. Kentucky has looked unstoppable in its three games, and certainly has the talent to win it all. West Virginia has struggled at times, and turned the ball over way too much against Washington. But the Mountaineers are still a very solid team and present the biggest challenge to UK so far.

Sunday:

#5 Michigan State vs. #6 Tennessee (2:20 p.m.)
Raise your hand if you had this as the Elite 8 matchup in the Midwest Region. You have two teams that are very well coached that are both capable of beating anyone on any given night. Michigan State has been to several Final Fours in the last decade; Tennessee has never been to the Elite 8 before. The experience factor could play a role in this one.

#1 Duke vs. #3 Baylor (5:05 p.m.)
Duke got over the hump, making it to the Elite 8 for the first time in a long while (at least for their standards). They have to be a little concerned, though, at just how well Baylor played against St. Mary's. Duke certainly has the experience edge in this game, but is not as athletic as Baylor. It should be a great matchup.

Wednesday, March 24, 2010

Sweet 16 Viewing Guide

The tournament has been a wild ride so far, and there are definitely some interesting matchups shaping up for the Sweet 16. The theme for a lot of them are favored, big conference heavyweights against upstart teams from mid-major conferences. Here's the schedule for the next two days:

Thursday:

#1 Syracuse vs. #5 Butler (7:07 p.m.)
Syracuse looked very strong in the opening weekend, especially in its easy win over Gonzaga. It will still be without center Arinze Onuaku for this game. Butler did a good job in beating two mid-major opponents. I think Butler has the 3 point shooting to stay with Syracuse, but if the Orange gets a good game from Andy Rautins it could be another easy win.
#2 West Virginia vs. #11 Washington (7:27 p.m., WDBJ)
Washington's easy win over New Mexico didn't get much publicity, but it should have considering the seeds. The Huskies certainly aren't playing like an 11 seed, and have a lot of confidence. They have all the tools to give West Virginia a good game. The Mountaineers will be without guard Truck Bryant for the rest of the season.

#2 Kansas State vs. #6 Xavier (9:37 p.m.)
Kansas State played very well in the opening weekend, and seems to have a great combination of solid offense and defense. They will be tested by a Xavier squad that is consistently underrated, and is seemingly always in the Sweet 16. Should be a great matchup.
#1 Kentucky vs. #12 Cornell (9:57 p.m., WDBJ)
Ooh what a juicy game this is! Kentucky looked unstoppable in dismantling a good Wake Forest team. And no one even came close to 12 seed Cornell in its two games. So is Cornell the team that has the discipline and the offensive weapons to frustrate the young Wildcats? This upset is certainly possible.

Friday:

#2 Ohio State vs. #6 Tennessee (7:07 p.m., WDBJ)
These two teams must feel like they have a real chance to reach the Final Four. Tennessee got a bit of a break in getting Ohio instead of Georgetown, but they still took care of business. Ohio State did a nice job holding off a solid Georgia Tech team and has one of the best players in the country in Evan Turner. Expect a tight one.
#3 Baylor vs. #10 St. Mary's (7:27 p.m.)
With all the buzz around some of the upstart teams, the attention has been off the great job Scott Drew has done coaching this Baylor team. The Bears have strength, speed, size, athleticism, and can play with anyone. St. Mary's has Omar Samhan. If Baylor can't stop him, they could be in trouble.

#5 Michigan State vs. #9 Northern Iowa (9:37 p.m.)
Northern Iowa was the story of the first weekend, with a remarkable upset of Kansas. If they continue to play like they have been, there's no reason to think they can't make the Elite 8. All that stands in their way is Tom Izzo, who has done another masterful coaching job. Michigan State will be wounded without Kalin Lucas, but don't count them out.
#1 Duke vs. #4 Purdue (9:57 p.m., WDBJ)
Purdue has risen from the dead just at the right time. And earlier in the year they were a National Title contender. So there's no reason to believe they can't beat Duke. The Blue Devils haven't gotten past this round in a long time, but this is their best chance.

Monday, March 22, 2010

Second Round Thoughts

It was certainly a very memorable first weekend of March Madness. The biggest story of the second round has to be Kansas losing to Northern Iowa. For a team that was such a favorite to win the whole thing to go down to Northern Iowa in the second round is truly stunning. Kansas really did not play well in either one of its games, and I really don't know why. You have to hand it to the Panthers, though: they made some clutch shots and flat outplayed Kansas.

Maryland fans are definitely hurting today. The Terps made a great comeback in the final minute, only to see Michigan State nail a 3 pointer as time expired to win. Maryland came so close to a Sweet 16 bid, only to fall short. That leaves Duke as the only ACC team to make it through the first weekend. The Blue Devils used strong defense to coast to an easy win over Cal.

This field is definitely a testament to parity. 11 conferences are represented in the Sweet 16. And we still have a 9, 10, 11 and 12 seed alive. It should make for a very interesting second week.

Sunday, March 21, 2010

NCAA Second Round: Sunday Viewing Guide

The madness continues Sunday, with 8 more games. Here's what you can expect:

#1 Syracuse vs. #8 Gonzaga (12:10 p.m., WDBJ)
You have to be impressed with the way Gonzaga played in the first round. And with the success of St. Mary's, the WCC is looking strong. That being said, I'm not sure the Zags have the discipline to go up against Syracuse's zone. It should be an entertaining game though.

#2 Ohio State vs. #10 Georgia Tech (2:20 p.m.)
This time slot is loaded with great games, starting with this one. Georgia Tech, if they don't turn the ball over, can play with anyone. Their talent on the inside will test Ohio State. It will be tough going against Evan Turner though, who can take over any game. The Buckeyes stand to be the biggest winners from last night's Kansas loss.
#4 Maryland vs. #5 Michigan State (2:30 p.m.)
This is probably the marquee game of the day. Last year, Maryland beat Michigan State, and they will look to do it again. Michigan State is capable of making a run like last year, but so far this season hasn't quite figured it out. On the Maryland side, anytime you are playing with Greivis Vasquez, you have a chance.
#2 West Virginia vs. #10 Missouri (2:40 p.m., WDBJ)
Everyone remembers what Mizzou did last year, and for that reason you can't count them out in this game. But West Virginia seems to have it really going well, and has all the tools to make a deep March run.
#4 Wisconsin vs. #12 Cornell (2:50 p.m.)
The Big Red from Cornell made a lot of believers in their first round performance against Temple. They will now face a Wisconsin team that doesn't always win ugly but finds ways to win. First to 60 should win this one.

#3 Pittsburgh vs. #6 Xavier (4:50 p.m.)
Xavier remembers all too well what happened last year: a loss to Pittsburgh in the tournament. They will be out for payback here. I think these two teams are pretty evenly matched. Expect a tight game.
#4 Purdue vs. #5 Texas A&M (5:00 p.m.)
Most people expected Purdue to bow out in the first round, but they showed some toughness in pulling one out. They will be against a much more difficult foe today, though, in Texas A&M. The Aggies looked very strong in their first round game.
#1 Duke vs. #8 California (5:15 p.m.)
Cal was one of the most impressive teams in the first round, using an impressive display of speed to blow past Louisville. They have the potential to really give Duke problems. I think in the end it will come down to who can make their 3s to decide the winner.

Saturday, March 20, 2010

First Round Thoughts and Saturday Viewing Guide

Well we were in for quite a first round of the NCAA Tournament. Thursday was the best first day I've ever seen, with seemingly almost every game coming down to the last possession. Among the notable games: Villanova needing overtime to survive being upset by 15 seed Robert Morris, Murray State getting a buzzer-beater to take down Vanderbilt, and Ohio pulling off a big upset in manhandling Georgetown. Wake Forest also pulled off a nice win for the ACC, beating Texas. Wake almost blew it in regulation, only to see Texas blow an 8 point lead in overtime.

On Friday, there weren't nearly as many close games. There were still highlights, among them: Cornell looking very strong in upsetting Temple, Wisconsin holding off Wofford on the last possession, and Michigan State hanging on against New Mexico State. The ACC had a solid day as well, with Georgia Tech pulling off a modest upset against Oklahoma State. Maryland and Duke won their first games with relative ease. Clemson and Florida State had disappointing showings and will be going home early.

So what can we expect for Saturday's second round games? Here's a preview:

#2 Villanova vs. #10 St. Mary's (1:05 p.m., WDBJ)
If you go based off of how the teams looked on Thursday, you'd have to give the edge to St. Mary's. They looked very good against a strong Richmond team. The big question mark is whether Villanova's game against Robert Morris was just a wakeup call or a sign of a team in decline.

#5 Butler vs. #13 Murray State (3:20 p.m.)
This is not the most attractive game on paper, but it is a good matchup between two great teams. Butler is 29-4 and has won 21 games in a row. Murray State is 31-4. I like Butler in this one.
#6 Tennessee vs. #14 Ohio (3:35 p.m., WDBJ)
This could be a very interesting game, if Ohio comes out with the same firepower it did on Thursday. Ohio proved it could play with the big boys, and wants to keep this streak going. Tennessee will not overlook this opponent, though, and I'm sure is happy Ohio knocked off Georgetown, making their road to the Sweet 16 easier.

#1 Kansas vs. #9 Northern Iowa (5:40 p.m.)
Northern Iowa had one of the more exciting wins on Thursday and is a strong 29-4 on the year. Meanwhile, Kansas struggled a bit in its first round game against Lehigh. But I wouldn't bet on the upset.
#3 Baylor vs. #11 Old Dominion (5:45 p.m., WDBJ)
Like in the Tennessee game, Baylor is another team that was glad to see an upset, not having to play Notre Dame. Old Dominion is a good team, but I think Baylor has too much size and athleticism for them.
#3 New Mexico vs. #11 Washington (5:50 p.m.)
This is a very compelling matchup between two of the west's best teams. Washington looked very strong in its comeback win over Marquette, while New Mexico struggled to put away Montana. New Mexico can quiet a lot of its skeptics with a win here.

#2 Kansas State vs. #7 BYU (8:10 p.m.)
Kansas State had a very ho-hum win in its first game, while BYU had to go to double overtime to beat Florida. Don't expect BYU to roll over, though. Jimmer Fredette and company have a real chance to pull the upset.
#1 Kentucky vs. #9 Wake Forest (8:15 p.m., WDBJ)
This is the only game with an ACC team playing today and the game I'm looking forward to seeing most. I want to see if Wake Forest's speed can keep up with Kentucky. Al-Farouq Aminu must have a good game if Wake has a chance.

Thursday, March 18, 2010

NCAA First Round Viewing Guide: Friday

The first day of March Madness has already been one to remember. So what's in store for Day 2? Here's your viewing guide, with games on WDBJ in Roanoke so noted.

#2 West Virginia vs. #15 Morgan State (12:15 p.m., WDBJ)
Many people think the Mountaineers have a great shot of getting to the Final Four. I'm not on the West Virginia bandwagon, but they certainly should have enough to get by the Bears.
#6 Xavier vs. #11 Minnesota (12:25 p.m.)
Xavier is another team that many are high on, and I think they have a good shot of getting to the Sweet 16. They have an interesting challenge in a Minnesota team that played well in the Big Ten tournament and has nothing to lose.
#5 Temple vs. #12 Cornell (12:30 p.m.)
This is the game I want to see the most out of the first round. Cornell has had a great year, breezing through the Ivy League and almost knocking off Kansas in Lawrence. They have a real shot against a Temple team that is also very strong.

#4 Purdue vs. #13 Siena (2:30 p.m.)
A lot of people are souding the upset alert here. It's sad what has happened to Purdue in the last couple weeks: Purdue went from a Final Four contender to losing its best player and pretty much losing its offense completely. Siena is a tournament tested team and will give them their best effort.
#7 Clemson vs. #10 Missouri (2:35 p.m., WDBJ)
Clemson has been an enigma this year, very hot and cold. And memories of last year's flameout in the tournament have me uneasy about their chances. Missouri made a great run last year and I think they are a slight favorite here.
#3 Pittsburgh vs. #14 Oakland (2:45 p.m.)
Jamie Dixon has done a great job at Pitt this year, taking a team that lost all of its best players and still getting a 3 seed. They might not have the weapons to make it far in the tournament, but should beat Oakland.
#4 Wisconsin vs. #13 Wofford (2:50 p.m.)
You can never count Wisconsin out when it comes to tournament time. Bo Ryan does a great job year in and year out. They do have a good challenge here from a Wofford team that did well in the Southern Conference this year.

#5 Texas A&M vs. #12 Utah State (4:45 p.m.)
The battle of the Aggies is Friday's standalone game. I think Texas A&M is a very good team that can really make a run in this tournament. They need to first get by a Utah State squad that cannot be counted out.

#8 Gonzaga vs. #9 Florida State (7:10 p.m.)
This is an interesting 8/9 matchup between a mid-major team with a good NCAA Tournament pedigree and an ACC team without one. Gonzaga likes to get up and down, and Florida State likes to play defense, so whichever can force their style will win.
#7 Oklahoma State vs. #10 Georgia Tech (7:15 p.m.)
For some reason the committee lumped a bunch of ACC teams at the same time. I think this will be the best of the three games. Georgia Tech has the talent to compete with anyone if they cut down on the turnovers. And Oklahoma State has a great guard in James Anderson.
#5 Michigan State vs. #12 New Mexico State (7:20 p.m.)
Michigan State doesn't quite have the talent they did last year when they made the run to the final game. But they can be very dangerous. They should be able to beat New Mexico State.
#1 Duke vs. #16 Arkansas Pine-Bluff (7:25 p.m., WDBJ)
This is the type of game that Duke really excels in. Expect this one to be a blowout by halftime.

#1 Syracuse vs. #16 Vermont (9:30 p.m.)
I think this is the least mis-matched 1/16 game I've seen in the tournament. That doesn't mean Vermont will win. But they might stick around long enough to give Syracuse a scare.
#2 Ohio State vs. #15 UC Santa Barbara (9:35 p.m.)
Ohio State is one of the best teams in this tournament, and shouldn't have problems with UCSB in this game.
#4 Maryland vs. #13 Houston (9:40 p.m., WDBJ)
Maryland is one of the ACC's hopes to make a run in the tournament. They take on a Houston squad that is only in the big dance because they made a run and won the CUSA Tournament. It will be interesting to see if they can keep that run going.
#8 California vs. #9 Louisville (9:45 p.m.)
It seems like the vast majority of the population is picking the 9 seed Louisville. And for good reason. The Pac-1o has been very suspect, and I think most people don't think California deserved an 8 seed.

Wednesday, March 17, 2010

NCAA First Round Viewing Guide: Thursday

We're inching closer to the best sporting event of the year. 64 teams are getting ready to take the court over the next two days. This tournament proves to be wide open, once you get beyond a few really strong teams. It seems that almost everyone is picking Kansas this year (including me), so the first few rounds will be very important in your pool. So here's your handy viewing guide for Thursday. Games being shown on WDBJ in Roanoke are so noted.

#7 BYU vs. #10 Florida (12:20 p.m.)
Some say Florida didn't really belong in the tournament, certainly not as a 10 seed. They are the underdog as the SEC team going against the mid-major. BYU has to be the favorite, with one of the better players in the country (Jimmer Fredette)
#6 Notre Dame vs. #11 Old Dominion (12:25 p.m., WDBJ)
Notre Dame is one of my sleepers in this tournament, with a great end to the season. They have just gotten back Luke Harangody from injury. They have a tough matchup here with ODU, which won both the CAA regular season and tournament.
#2 Villanova vs. #15 Robert Morris (12:30 p.m.)
Villanova has had some problems in early round games (see: American last year) but shouldn't have much trouble with Robert Morris.

#4 Vanderbilt vs. #13 Murray State (2:30 p.m.)
Vanderbilt is a team that I never am really comfortable with. I think they are vulnerable in this game against a Murray State team that went 30-4 on the season. Don't be surprised if there is an upset here.
#2 Kansas State vs. #15 North Texas (2:40 p.m.)
Kansas State has had an impressive season, doing really well except when they had to play Kansas. They shouldn't have any problems with the Mean Green.
#3 Baylor vs. #14 Sam Houston State (2:45 p.m.)
Baylor has been a great story, on the verge the last couple years of having a breakout season. And this was it. Many people have them as a real sleeper in this tournament. They should definitely win this one.
#7 Richmond vs. #10 St. Mary's (2:50 p.m., WDBJ)
I am real high on Richmond. I think the Spiders have the talent and the coaching to do very well in this tournament. They have a tough first round game against a St. Mary's team that did admirably well the year after losing Patty Mills.

#5 Butler vs. #12 UTEP (4:45 p.m.)
This is the no-man's land game on the west coast, and it should be a good one. I like what Brad Stevens has done at Butler, but a lot of people are smelling upset. This one reminds me of the Drake vs. Western KY matchup from a couple years ago.

#8 UNLV vs. #9 Northern Iowa (7:10 p.m.)
There probably isn't a lot of juice for this game between two mid-major teams. But it is an 8/9 game, so it should be very competitive. I like Northern Iowa in this spot.
#1 Kentucky vs. #16 East Tennessee St. (7:15 p.m.)
If you haven't seen Kentucky play this year, this is your chance to see one of the most talented teams in the country. Going forward, it will be interesting to see how they handle the pressure of the NCAA Tournament. This won't be a contest though.
#6 Marquette vs. #11 Washington (7:20 p.m.)
This might be the most attractive matchup of day 1. Marquette plays very hard with somewhat limited talent. And Washington is a very athletic team that can play very well at times. I expect a close battle.
#3 Georgetown vs. #14 Ohio (7:25 p.m., WDBJ)
Georgetown has had an up and down season, but closed on a high note with a trip to the Big East Tournament final. They have the pieces to beat anyone. But they can also play poorly, which means Ohio could sneak in an upset.

#1 Kansas vs. #16 Lehigh (9:30 p.m.)
The Jayhawks have all the tools to cut down the nets in a few weeks, and Lehigh will be but a small bump in the road. I'm sure they'll use this as a tuneup for their next game.
#8 Texas vs. #9 Wake Forest (9:35 p.m., WDBJ)
This is a game between two teams that had higher aspirations earlier in the season but have really struggled down the stretch. Texas has the talent to be a #2 seed but really dropped off. But I still like them over Wake, which is in freefall mode.
#3 New Mexico vs. #14 Montana (9:40 p.m.)
For many people, New Mexico is one of the biggest wildcards in this tournament. Most (including me) have never seen them play. I will be interested to see how they do against a Montana team that was one of the best stories of championship week.
#6 Tennessee vs. #11 San Diego State (9:45 p.m.)
I thought Bruce Pearl did one of the best coaching jobs this year, getting Tennessee to play as well as they did after an incident marred the program in the middle of the year. They could make a run in the tournament, or could lose this game.

Monday, March 15, 2010

Postseason Preview

Duke added another ACC Tournament title to its resume Sunday, beating a very tough Georgia Tech team on a clutch 3 by Jon Scheyer. That likely gave them a 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. In all, six teams made it. Virginia Tech was the most notable exception. Despite winning 23 games and 10 ACC games, they didn't make it in the field. Most people point to their poor non-conference schedule as to why. Here's a look at the postseason schedule for the 9 teams that are still playing. The most notable exception to me is Miami, who won 20 games this year and yet is in no postseason play.

NCAA Tournament:

#1 Duke vs. #16 Winthrop/Ark Pine-Bluff, Friday, 7:25 p.m.
#4 Maryland vs. #13 Houston, Friday, 9:40 p.m.
#7 Clemson vs. #10 Missouri, Friday, 2:35 p.m.
#8 Texas vs. #9 Wake Forest, Thursday, 9:35 p.m.
#8 Gonzaga vs. #9 Florida State, Friday, 7:10 p.m.
#7 Oklahoma State vs. #10 Georgia Tech, Friday, 7:15 p.m.

NIT:

#1 Virginia Tech vs. #8 Quinnipiac, Wednesday, 7:00 p.m.
#4 UNC vs. #5 William and Mary, Tuesday, 9:30 p.m.
#3 South Florida vs. #6 NC State, Tuesday, 8:00 p.m.
(all the higher seeds are at home)

I will bring the full NCAA first round preview later this week.

Sunday, March 14, 2010

ACC Tournament Final Preview

The higher seeds finally held serve on Saturday, in what has been a pretty good tournament. Both games yesterday came down to the final minute. Let's start with Duke, which held off Miami to win. The Blue Devils got a great effort from Kyle Singler, and were able to pull out to pretty significant leads twice only to see Miami climb back. I can't say enough about how well the Hurricanes played in this tournament. They should be a force in the NIT.

In the second game, Georgia Tech was able to hold off a late charge from NC State. The Wolfpack looked very tired in the first half, only mustering 19 points. But just like their game against Maryland, Georgia Tech let NC State back in with a disturbing number of turnovers. It's amazing how bad the Yellow Jackets look when a team presses them: they act as if they haven't practiced before. The key play in yesterday's game was Javier Gonzalez dribbling the ball off his foot, then grabbing Derrick Favors by the jersey and slinging him down for an intentional foul.

So that sets up today's final. I'm sure 95% of the people out there expect Duke to win. And you can count me among those. Georgia Tech certainly has the talent to beat Duke, but they are so sloppy with the ball that I have to think Duke will make them pay for those turnovers. For Georgia Tech the key is a healthy dose of Favors and Gani Lawal. They were very successful going in to them early in the NC State game, and can't abandon that.

For Duke, I think the key is a strong game from the role players. Scheyer has been a bit off this week, and Singler can't do it all himself. Brian Zoubek, Lance Thomas, and the Plumlee brothers need to play well to pick up the slack. I expect Georgia Tech to give Duke a good fight, but playing four days in a row will wear them down and Duke should take home another ACC Tournament title.

Saturday, March 13, 2010

ACC Tournament Semifinals Preview

Before I get into today's semifinal games, let me go back to Friday. It's pretty remarkable that the 11 seed and the 12 seed are among the last 4 teams left. Some may say it speaks to the strength from top to bottom of the league, others may say it's a sign that the conference is down when the "best" teams can't beat the bottom ones. What it does is make me uneasy about how the ACC teams will perform in the NCAA Tournament. Let's take a look at how the teams below Duke fared:
#2 seed Maryland had a horrific first half performance against #7 seed Georgia Tech, and despite an almost complete unraveling by the Jackets in the second half still lost.
#3 seed Florida State couldn't do anything offensively against #11 seed NC State, was behind most of the game, and lost.
#4 seed Virginia Tech had a terrible game from its best player, Malcolm Delaney, and couldn't beat #12 seed Miami.
#5 seed Wake Forest didn't show up in their game against #12 seed Miami and lost by 21 points!
#6 seed Clemson looked really bad offensively against #11 seed NC State and lost after trailing most of the game.

These teams really need to step it up next week! Now, let's look ahead to Saturday:

#1 Duke vs. #12 Miami (1:30 p.m.)
This tournament could not have opened up better for Duke. They first had to face a Virginia squad that they match up better with than BC. And now instead of having to play Virginia Tech, they get Miami. The Hurricanes have certainly played their best basketball of the season in their last two games. But I don't think they have the legs or the talent to stay with Duke. They might make it interesting for a half or less, but Duke should roll.

#7 Georgia Tech vs. #11 NC State (4:00 p.m.)
This is looking like deja vu all over again for the Wolfpack. Three years ago, they made a run to the finals, and could do that again. The Wolfpack haven't been setting the world on fire, but have been playing solid defense. Georgia Tech is the definition of streaky. You only had to watch their game against Maryland to see that. NC State will have the crowd edge but I do like Georgia Tech's superior talent to win out. Expect a big game from Derrick Favors.

Friday, March 12, 2010

ACC Tournament Second Round Preview

It was a wild day one at the ACC Tournament. So will order be restored on Friday?

#1 Duke vs. #9 Virginia (12:00 p.m.)
The Cavaliers put together a nice win over Boston College, using the 3 point shot to build a lead towards the end of the first half. They did it all without their best player, Sylven Landesberg. Facing a rested Duke will be a different challenge though. The Blue Devils creamed UVA from the opening tip up in Charlottesville not too long ago and should coast here.

#4 Virginia Tech vs. #12 Miami (2:30 p.m.)
I'm sure anyone that saw the box score from Thursday's Miami-Wake game probably did a double take. The Hurricanes just took it to Wake Forest. The Deacons frankly had a pathetic performance, on both sides of the ball. So now Miami is riding some momentum into their game against the Hokies. This is the third year in a row these two teams have played in the ACC Tournament, and Tech has won comfortably both times. They should make it three in a row today.

#2 Maryland vs. #7 Georgia Tech (7:00 p.m.)
Georgia Tech did what it needed to do Thursday, beating North Carolina to put itself in much stronger NCAA Tournament consideration. Despite a very poor first half, Tech and specifically Derrick Favors turned it up in the second half to win. This sets up a rematch of a very memorable finish between GT and Maryland. The Terps are playing very well at the moment, and should win a close one.

#3 Florida State vs. #11 NC State (9:30 p.m.)
The Wolfpack always seem to play well in the NCAA Tournament, and put forth one of their better efforts on Thursday against Clemson. They slowed the game down and didn't let Clemson's press get to them. Now they get to play Florida State, a team they beat down in Tallahassee. The Seminoles are a better team, but I kind of like State in this matchup.

Wednesday, March 10, 2010

ACC Tournament First Round Preview

The regular season is over and it's time for teams to step it up this week. We won't see the best teams play on Thursday, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't see some compelling games. For one team in particular, First Round Thursday is very important.

#8 Boston College vs. #9 Virginia (12:00 p.m.)
Boston College comes into this game playing better basketball as of late. The Eagles had an up and down year, losing some close games early in the conference season. They will face a Virginia squad that earned some accolades early in the year, but has really fallen on some hard times. The Cavaliers have lost 9 games in a row, and have lost their best player for the rest of the year. They did play well in their last game, a narrow loss to Maryland. I think Virginia plays hard, but in the end BC should win this one.

#5 Wake Forest vs. #12 Miami (2:30 p.m.)
Wake Forest has not played its best basketball lately, losers of 4 of their last 5. But they did end the year with a nice home win over Clemson. The Miami Hurricanes have played about even with their talent level. They went undefeated in non-conference play but started to unravel once they got into the ACC. Miami did play well at home, knocking off Wake by one point. But they have not played well historically in the ACC Tournament. Wake should win.

#7 Georgia Tech vs. #10 North Carolina (7:00 p.m.)
This is a very important game for Georgia Tech, after their home loss to Virginia Tech. If they lose this game, they won't make it into the Tournament. Fortunately for them, they are playing the Tar Heels, who are coming off a 32 point loss to rival Duke. Georgia Tech has owned Carolina in the two meetings they had this year. And they should do enough to win this game.

#6 Clemson vs. #11 NC State (9:30 p.m.)
Despite their tough road loss to Wake Forest, Clemson has played pretty well lately, with a road win over Florida State and home win over Georgia Tech. The Tigers have been a bit inconsistent on offense, but their pressing style gives opponents fit. NC State played decently in the last couple weeks of the season, but does not have the talent to compete with Clemson. I don't see an upset here.

Tuesday, March 09, 2010

Preseason Picks Revisited

Now that the regular season is done, it's time to revisit my preseason predictions for the ACC. There were some ties in the standings, so I'm going based off of the seedings for the ACC Tournament. Overall, I think I had a pretty good crystal ball for this year. I was completely wrong (as most people were) about North Carolina, who came up far short of expectations. But my preseason pick of Maryland as one of the best teams turned out okay. Here's the comparison (teams listed in order they finished):

Team: Pick:

1. Duke 2
2. Maryland 3
3. Florida State 6
4. Virginia Tech 8
5. Wake Forest 4
6. Clemson 5
7. Georgia Tech 7
8. Boston College 9
9. Virginia 10
10. UNC 1
11. NC State 12
12. Miami 11

So the only one I got exactly right was Georgia Tech. But the only schools that I was off by more than one slot were Virginia Tech, Florida State and UNC.

Monday, March 08, 2010

Weekend Recap

The regular season is now over, and it's time for teams to look ahead to the ACC Tournament. But before that starts, let's look back at this weekend's games.

Duke earned the number one seed in the tournament with a beatdown of UNC. The Blue Devils took out any frustrations from the Maryland loss, embarrassing the Tar Heels. Duke ended up earning of a share of the regular season title with Maryland, who narrowly beat Virginia in Charlottesville. The Cavaliers were playing without best player Sylven Landesberg, who was suspended for the rest of the season. They were still able to make it a game, until an untimely technical foul called on Tony Bennett.

Virginia Tech got the biggest win of the weekend, beating Georgia Tech on the road. Playing without Dorenzo Hudson, the rest of the Hokies stepped it up and played one of their best games of the year. The home loss could prove very costly for the Yellow Jackets.

In other ACC action, Wake Forest got a much needed home win over Clemson. The Deacons had lost four games in a row but were able to hold off the Tigers for the win. Florida State escaped Coral Gables with a road win over Miami. The Canes missed a shot to win at the buzzer.

And NC State ended the regular season on a positive note, beating Boston College at home. The Wolfpack basically used one big run at the end of the game to win.

Coming up later this week, I'll look back at my preseason predictions, and look ahead to this weekend's ACC Tournament in Greensboro.

Thursday, March 04, 2010

Mid-Week Update

There are still a lot of ACC teams that have to be nervous about their position in the NCAA Tournament with just one regular season game to go. The game of the week was Maryland taking out Duke, in a great battle. The Terps came out blazing and raced to a 13 point lead, only to see Duke come back. But in the end, some clutch baskets by Greivis Vasquez put the Terps over the top. They are now tied with Duke atop the ACC.

In other action, Clemson got a home win over Georgia Tech in a very high-scoring affair at Littlejohn. The Tigers are looking good for NCAA Tournament consideration, while Georgia Tech has to be getting a little nervous. Florida State got a win in typical Florida State fashion, winning a low-scoring battle against Wake Forest. The Deacons have now lost four games in a row.

Virginia Tech got a much needed home win over NC State, putting them back in decent position to make the Tournament. In fairly meaningless games, North Carolina picked up a home win over Miami, giving them two straight wins. And Boston College continued their solid play, beating a listless Virginia squad at home.

Here's what you can expect for the last weekend of the year:

Saturday:

Florida State at Miami (12:00 p.m., ESPN2) - Florida State could use a road win against their rivals from Miami. They have been playing better as of late, but Miami is tough at home.
Maryland at Virginia (1:30 p.m., Raycom) - This is about as much of a sure thing for a road win as you can get. Maryland is streaking, and Virginia is not. Terps should win big.
Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech (4:00 p.m., Raycom) - This is a critical game for both teams, and could be an elimination game for the Tournament. You'd have to give the Jackets the edge at home.
North Carolina at Duke (9:00 p.m., ESPN) - This has to be the most meaningless Duke vs Carolina matchup on the last week in years. Duke is much better than Carolina, and is at home.

Sunday:

Boston College at NC State (2:00 p.m., Raycom) - All that's on the line here is bragging rights. For what it's worth, these two teams have been more competitive recently.
Clemson at Wake Forest (6:00 p.m., FSN) - Several ACC teams will probably be looking to this game to figure out if they will be playing on Thursday next week. Wake really needs to win this one to stop their slide.

Monday, March 01, 2010

Weekend Recap

This weekend was very good if you were a road team. Five of the six ACC games were won by road teams. And some were definitely surprises. Let's start in Blacksburg, where it was a strange day. The game was delayed by three hours, and ended up being a classic. Maryland won in double overtime, when Erick Green missed a three pointer that would have given the Hokies the lead. The Terps continue to impress, while the Hokies have now lost three in a row. They are back on the bubble.

Clemson also got a big road win over Florida State. The Tigers looked dead in the first half, and were down in the last minute, but got the benefit of some costly turnovers by the Noles and a clutch three pointer by Andre Young to win. This really boosts their NCAA profile. Another surprise road winner: North Carolina. The Tar Heels somehow got it together to beat Wake Forest on the road. The Deacons have now lost to NC State and UNC in back-to-back games.

Speaking of the Wolfpack, they got a somewhat surprising road victory over Miami. The Canes had been playing better at home. Duke coasted to a road win over Virginia. The game was over almost before it begun. And the lone team to win at home was Georgia Tech. BC gave them a little trouble, but Georgia Tech was able to hold them off.

Here's what's ahead for the start of the last week of the regular season:

Tuesday:

Georgia Tech at Clemson (8:00 p.m., Raycom) - Two teams that should be in the tournament will want to win this one to feel more comfortable. I think if Clemson hadn't won at Florida State this would have been a must-win for them.
Miami at North Carolina (8:00 p.m., Raycom) - Not much to play for here except pride. And for Carolina, maybe the last win of the year with a road game at Duke to end the season.

Wednesday:

NC State at Virginia Tech (7:00 p.m.) - The Hokies desperately need this win after losing three in a row. The Wolfpack have been playing better lately, but lost at home to the Hokies by 20 a couple weeks ago.
Wake Forest at Florida State (7:00 p.m., ESPN2) - Wake Forest has been taking on water, and needs a road win to get back on track. It's going to be tough - I'm sure FSU is not in a good mood after blowing the Clemson game.
Duke at Maryland (9:00 p.m., ESPN) - This should be a great one. Maryland has not lost since they went to Cameron and got blown out. Duke hasn't lost in that time frame either. I expect this one to come down to the wire.
Virginia at Boston College (9:00 p.m., ESPNU) - The Cavaliers have really struggled recently, and have to get Landesberg back if they have any chance in this one. BC has played better in its last three games.